Matchup Challenge Feb 28/Mar 1 by Mowens33

[The Pook]

Matchup Challenge Feb 28/Mar 1 by Mowens33

[The Pook]

Just a note: I thought that this little (hopefully fun contest) for a dozen or so of us matchers, along with the graphic I designed above would help me pay tribute and thanks in a small way to The Hat. My success today at this game is down to his theories and teachings, and to the others here at Pace and Cap who keep it all going.

Pook

[The Pook]

And so WE ARE OFF!! Mike (mowens33) you are up for this weekend. Post into this thread. Do your worst man!

Pook

[mowens33]

Let’s take a look at Race 10 at GP
7 Furlongs. Swale-G2 Fasig-Tipton Swale S. Grade II. Purse $200,000 FOR THREE

Not a typical distance

I will post race for Sunday soon.

[The Pook]

Good choice Mike. That looks a little tough.

[Seven Furlongs]

It's been some time since I last posted, but, I'd like to contribute something to this thread.

I think the 1 horse, Daredevil, is tough to beat. Yes, Daredevil's best races have been on an off track, but I think despite the layoff the horse is the speed of the speed and all other early horses will be left in its dust. I think with the layoff he has only become stronger and faster.

There is no value in the race, unless you think Daredevil can be beaten. If so, the 2 horse might be worth a look.

But if I had to bet, I'd bet:

#1 Daredevil to win.

[The Pook]

Seven Furlongs,

For the purpose of this contest I need to know exactly what you mean by placing your clear numbered choices at the end of your reply. Are you betting one or two choices and what are their numbers?

Pook

[mowens33]

Sunday
GG Race 6
Race should be competitive

[Seven Furlongs]

Pook,

I submitted my post before reading the rules. Sorry.

To be clear for Saturday's race,

I would place a win bet on the :1: horse, Daredevil.

[The Pook]

Also folks...Mike is posting 2 races for us this weekend so make sure your replies clearly state which race you are playing.

[mowens33]

It's been some time since I last posted, but, I'd like to contribute something to this thread.

I think the 1 horse, Daredevil, is tough to beat. Yes, Daredevil's best races have been on an off track, but I think despite the layoff the horse is the speed of the speed and all other early horses will be left in its dust. I think with the layoff he has only become stronger and faster.

There is no value in the race, unless you think Daredevil can be beaten. If so, the 2 horse might be worth a look.

But if I had to bet, I'd bet:

#1 Daredevil to win.
Perfect time to chime in Seven Furlongs!

My thought with all the speed it could breakdown up front? Than again Daredevil may be too good??

Mike

[Seven Furlongs]

Perfect time to chime in Seven Furlongs!

My thought with all the speed it could breakdown up front? Than again Daredevil may be too good??

Mike

Mike,

I just think that the layoff, the combination of Pletcher/Castellano, and that Daredevil is the speed of the speed makes it hard to for me to think he will lose. I don't think the other early horses will disrupt him enough to make him burn his reserves, largely because he has already won at a mile, so he has the stamina.

So, I think that the race will run early, despite there being a lot of early speed because I think he is that good. My only worry would be that Daredevil may have a bit of rust, but, his workouts look fine. I use Davidowitz's workout pars as a means of generating a speed rating, and that 59.6 Daredevil ran 3 works back equates to a 104, so he is ready.

Andre

[cigar]

This is a very difficult race to match for a beginner. We have 1 . improving 3 yrs old 2. Distance stretch out 3. Horses from different tracks. Look like a race that need to "Adjusted"? per HAT "alternate sprint method". If anyone can work this race and show the adjustment will be great.

See attachment for my matchup. If anyone can show me how to past my work sheet directly into this section without adding an attachment would be greatly appreciated.

[mowens33]

Mike,

I just think that the layoff, the combination of Pletcher/Castellano, and that Daredevil is the speed of the speed makes it hard to for me to think he will lose. I don't think the other early horses will disrupt him enough to make him burn his reserves, largely because he has already won at a mile, so he has the stamina.

So, I think that the race will run early, despite there being a lot of early speed because I think he is that good. My only worry would be that Daredevil may have a bit of rust, but, his workouts look fine. I use Davidowitz's workout pars as a means of generating a speed rating, and that 59.6 Daredevil ran 3 works back equates to a 104, so he is ready.

Andre
Andre well thought out!

Appreciate the post, don’t be a stranger!!

Mike

[mowens33]

Good Luck

[Capcondo]

I'm out of town this weekend and will not play until next week.

GL

[Bill Lyster]

As advertised, lots of speed.

The 1 has broken 4th and 3rd, the 3 has pressed a little off lead then faded has broken 7-2-5, the 5 has broken 1-2-1-3-1 can press closely or as in its last start, at or about todays pace, can drop back to 4th a couple off. the 7 has the best time at this distance, has broken 3-2, appears to need an open lead.

The 4 and 6 are slow.

I see the 1, 7, 3 and 6 (in that order) trying for the lead which could end up being 21.4 or 22.0. This could pressure the 7 who needs lead, so I would discount the 44.2 he ran in last to about 44.4. Still I think 7 drives this boat. His field best turn time of 22.1 (vs 22.7 [10ths] by the 3, even compromised by an earlier first fraction, probably toasts the rest of the early contingent.

The 5 has won from 4th (albeit from a turf sprint, but it was his 1st serious off pace effort and the time from that race projects to 121.0 (I know grass vs dirt, but it is WII. 4th would be perfect behind 3 or so earlies. The 5 was on or made the lead in the BC race vs the 1 while closely pressing. I see the last race as an experiment in pressing

The 2 has shown a 7-5-2-1 move against 21.4-44.4-57.0 and is a definite threat here.

I matched the 2 and 5 but I applied the pressing positions and lengths back from the turf sprint to todays expected fractions. the 5 will be closer to the lead than the 2 and is my pick.

The 5, Souper Colossal, to win.

[Bill V.]

Hi
With the off track, and lots of early horse who may or may not be true early's
( less than 3 pace lines ) Some only have maiden wins, other have distance surface issues I will pass this one The winner ?


looking forward to the contest next races.

38614

[Seven Furlongs]

The Saturday Race hasn't run yet, but due to a shortage of time I will post my 2 kopeks worth for Sunday's race.

Looking at the flight distribution of the race, 4 out of the 7 horses like to be near the front, while 3 of the seven have a mild indifference towards seeing a race track without another horse's rear in front of them.

It's an interesting race, and I gave the horses the following designations:

5 early

1, 2, & 6 early pressers

3 & 4 are pressers

7 is sustained.

I think the 1 and 2 will do the irresponsible thing and challenge the 5 for the lead. Neither the 1 or 2 will win as they are the weaker horses and should fold like termite riddled wooden deck chairs, but, the question is, will they take something out of the 5? I think they most likely will, so I will look elsewhere. I'm not crazy about the 6 because it won last out and it looks like it may have had a hard race.

Of the pressers, I like the 4 horse best. It is a sprinter stretching out and I don't know the success rate of the Hollendorfer 'Sprint-Sprint-Sprint-Sprint-to-Route' manouver, but looking back at its solitary attempt at a route at Emerald Downs in 2012 it was competitive. Sure, that was a little over 3 years ago, but these are 10k claimers and a fresh face in the route ranks is worth a look, especially if the 4 horse stays around the ML odds at post time.

So, for Sunday's Golden Gate 10k claim extravaganza, I'd bet the :4: horse, Malibu Rum, to win.

[Seven Furlongs]

Well, I guess the question of if Daredevil can win on a fast to good track won't be answered today.

I still think he'll win, as the two previous wins in the slop will probably hammer his price down to something ridiculously low.

[mowens33]

Not a great start the GP card was cancelled after race 5

[The Pook]

should fold like termite riddled wooden deck chairs,

lol

[The Pook]

Too bad about todays racing Mike....good one tomorrow again.

[Jeebs]

This is a very difficult race to match for a beginner. We have 1 . improving 3 yrs old 2. Distance stretch out 3. Horses from different tracks. Look like a race that need to "Adjusted"? per HAT "alternate sprint method". If anyone can work this race and show the adjustment will be great.

See attachment for my matchup. If anyone can show me how to past my work sheet directly into this section without adding an attachment would be greatly appreciated.

What's the alternate sprint method?

[Segwin]

Matchup Challenge Feb 28/Mar 1 by Mowens33

Love the matchup graphic Pook - very nice.

[Bill Lyster]

Sunday
GG Race 6
Race should be competitive

Fast sprinters beat slow routers. The 4 and 6 have usable sprint lines.

#4 22.4-45.3-57.3-109.3; 2-2-2-4
#6 23.0-46.0-58.0-110.2; 4-3-4-4, the 4 wins this duel hands down.

Projected to a route the 4's sprint line is:

23.1-46.0-110.0-136.1 (10ths final time only)

The 1 pressed 49.1-113.3 and failed, best mile 139.60
The 2 pressed 47.2-112.2 and failed, best mile 139.20
The 3 pressed 49.3-114.0 and failed, best mile 138.60
The 5 lead in 48.1-113.3 and failed, best mile 138.80 (Tandem w/6)
The 6's best route where it won went 49.1-113.0-138.80
The 7 is S and did reasonably well after running 48.0-112, finishing 138.40 (note best 6 furlong time in route and not losing ground- nice odds too.)

I think the 4 wins wire to wire.

[Bill Lyster]

Sunday
GG Race 6
Race should be competitive


Mike,

Whose PP's are these? I have never seen full career summaries except at BC time or the occasional Triple Crown entrant who had more than 10 races.

Thanks,

[cigar]

Too bad for Saturday card. Today is another good race. #7 Scratch

[cigar]

What's the alternate sprint method?

I am reading the "RED MANUAL" from page 75 - 86, there are to sample race that is adjusted. The method spoke of is "Alternate Sprint to Route". Hope this help.

[mowens33]

The 7 Pocket Prince scratched --- looked like a no factor in this race

[mowens33]

Ote

[The Pook]

Love the matchup graphic Pook - very nice.

Thanks Terry

[The Pook]

GG Race 6 Mar 1/15

[mowens33]

Mike,

Whose PP's are these? I have never seen full career summaries except at BC time or the occasional Triple Crown entrant who had more than 10 races.

Thanks,
Bill, these are Formulator PP, you can adjust for as many lines you want. You can even show a many workout as you want.

But that's only scratching the surface as to what you can do. Very powerful handicapping tool.

Mike

[Bill V.]

Using phase 1 raw numbers

The 4 has a big advantage
Its numbers are over 6 to the routers

I figure the 4 either will wire the field or...

if I take out the 4
my top 3 EPR+FFR = TPR
are 3 6 5

My bets
4 if 5/1 or higher . If the 4 is lower than 5/1
then 3 and 6 win

Good skill

[PeteC]

I see the 2,4,5,6 as ep's in a race with a modest pace. That's my winning group and I will take the 4 and 6 to win.
Pete

[The Pook]

Using phase 1 raw numbers

The 4 has a big advantage
Its numbers are over 6 to the routers

I figure the 4 either will wire the field or...

if I take out the 4
my top 3 EPR+FFR = TPR
are 3 6 5

My bets
4 if 5/1 or higher . If the 4 is lower than 5/1
then 3 and 6 win

Good skill

Bill, we aren't counting odds here. Just to keep things simple and clear for me to track (especially if later there are lots of entries) I don't want to have to try and interpret all the variables. (see rules post) So from your reply I see 3 and 6 to win. If not you have 15 minutes. Sorry.

Pook

[Bill V.]

I see,,, NP just give me the 3 and 6

sorry

[mowens33]

Not much to brag about