Matchup Challenge Mar 21/22 by PeteC

[The Pook]

Here you go. Our original poster and matchup practice mentor....PeteC!

[PeteC]

Scanning the early PP's for Saturday I thought this is a wide-open interesting race. It's a stakes race for 3-year-olds on the turf. Most have turf experience but there are a few stretching out which spices up the challenge.

I'll post the "final PP's" which will be up tomorrow afternoon....

[PeteC]

Here are the program PP's for Saturday's race...

[PeteC]

Let's give this stakes sprint at Sunland a try for Sunday...Here are the early PP's...

[PeteC]

Let's give this stakes sprint at Sunland a try for Sunday...Here are the early PP's...

ooops, here they are....

[The Pook]

Saturday SA 4th

I don't know what to do with this race. This is one that I would pass. The early horses are sprinters stretching out for the first time. Do you adjust these guys somehow? No router is an early. I think I read that Jim would compare sprinters to sprinters and routers to routers and go from there but even then I'm a little lost. Maybe somebody could show us(me) how it is done. So I will pass this one and look to see what you others come up with.

Good luck
Pook

[Seven Furlongs]

This isn't the easiest of races, since you have to contend with those Santa Anita downhill turf lines, but here goes.

On paper, not a lot of early speed. The 3 and the 9 are the most likely to battle for the front. Since the 3 has run a faster fraction on the downhill course than the 9, the 9 is out.

Despite there not being a lot of early pace that can compromise the 3, I don't think the 9 will wire for one large reason: I don't think it can win at the distance. Firstly, looking at its past performances the 3 Jazzy Josh encounters problems when it is asked to run over 6 furlongs. This may be due to the second reason, its pedigree. Brisnet's Average Winning Distance or AWD numbers for the pedigree of the horse are 6.0 and 6.2 respectively, which means that the horse is probably most comfortable in the 5.5-6.5 furlong range.

The 3 does have some positives, such as that the horse is now in the hands or Richard Baltas and is losing its blinkers, presumably for the purpose of getting the horse to relax and slow down a little, but I don't think its enough to get it to run 8 furlongs successfully in this group of horses.

The race will run OTE, and the horse that has done best against the quickest pace is the 1 horse. It has succeeded against a faster 6.5f turf pace than either the 3 or 9 can ever throw in its way and it did gain lengths in the 7f San Vincente stakes two races back. Another bonus: it is 2 for 2 on the grass.

I bet the :1: to win.

[Seven Furlongs]

Saturday SA 4th

I don't know what to do with this race. This is one that I would pass. The early horses are sprinters stretching out for the first time. Do you adjust these guys somehow? No router is an early. I think I read that Jim would compare sprinters to sprinters and routers to routers and go from there but even then I'm a little lost. Maybe somebody could show us(me) how it is done. So I will pass this one and look to see what you others come up with.

Good luck
Pook

Pook, or anyone else, if you need a point of comparison between the downhill turf course and a mile race on the grass, here are class pars at the 10k claiming level for each:

SA 6.5

22.03, 44.31, 1:13.44

SA 8 furlongs

47.22, 1:11.12, 1:35.25


They are from commercially available class pars, not hand rolled. Wish I had the time to make my own pars, but sadly, I don't.

[The Pook]

Pook, or anyone else, if you need a point of comparison between the downhill turf course and a mile race on the grass, here are class pars at the 10k claiming level for each:

SA 6.5

22.03, 44.31, 1:13.44

SA 8 furlongs

47.22, 1:11.12, 1:35.25


They are from commercially available class pars, not hand rolled. Wish I had the time to make my own pars, but sadly, I don't.

SF, with the above info and the pacesetter #3 running 44.4 that would equate to about 47.4 in a route. The #2 and especially the #7 have been successful at a faster pace than that. That would make #2 and #7 pop up as interesting routers. The #1 though did win against a 45.2 equivalent so you may be right on.

Pook

[Capcondo]

Thanks for posting this Pete.

The 3 and the 9 are early sprinters in a route. Neither shows a pattern of closing up in sprints. I think they'll be way out in front. The race should go OTE (as many turf races do).

The 5 and 6 look too slow.

This leaves me with the 1,2,4,7, and 8.

There are a couple of tandem races here. The Eddie Logan stakes was very fast. The 2 and the 7 come out of that race. The other tandem is the last race for the 2 and 4.

1: This guy has had trouble at the start in 3 of 6 races. What's more, he doesn't close up in any of the sprints through the stretch call. OUT.
2: Ran well in both tandems. Contender.
4: Won the tandem against the 2. Contender.
7: Ran well in tandem. Will be behind 2. OUT.
8: Slow. OUT.

Conclusion:

This leaves me with the 2 and 4. This is a tough call. The 4 may get wrapped up in the pace.

The 2 is my choice.

GL

Tim

[Capcondo]

My race above is for the 4th at Santa Anita on Saturday. Sorry about that.

Tim

[raceman5]

Think i will just use the tandem race of Dec 27 and win bet the 2 and 7

Bob

[PeteC]

I also feel this race will run OTE with the early sprinters not being able to sustain their pace over the distance. I used the 47.2 112.0 last race tandem for today's projected pace.

1: This sprinter is a contender. He won from the clouds last time against an insanely fast (even for this downhill course) pace.

The 2,4 and 7 have also run well against today's pace or faster too.

The 8 is also a contender for me running well against today's pace on the tapeta at GG.

The 7 had a nice 2nd against the fastest pace albeit not a close second. I notice then that the 8 was only a neck behind the 7 in a stake at GG.


I will take the 7 and 8 to win.

[raceman5]

Again i will go with the tandem race of Dec 6 and bet the 4 and 8 to win.

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

Saturday SA 4th

I don't know what to do with this race. This is one that I would pass. The early horses are sprinters stretching out for the first time. Do you adjust these guys somehow? No router is an early. I think I read that Jim would compare sprinters to sprinters and routers to routers and go from there but even then I'm a little lost. Maybe somebody could show us(me) how it is done. So I will pass this one and look to see what you others come up with.

Good luck
Pook

Complicated race what with the GG raced horses, that surface vs turf, etc. AND converting the down the hill turf sprints to something useable.

couple of years ago I went back through the PPs and used horses that had been successful on the SA turf course and the main track. Although this study included only those successful on both surfaces and the fact that I could probably find only about 50 horses, the average time differential between the turf course and the dirt course was about 3.74 seconds. So a horse that ran 113.00 down the hill, might be expected to run 116.74 on the dirt course.

If you choose to use that adjustment you then need to add 2 fifths for sprint to route and the 6.4 seconds per half furlong for the adjustment from the 6.5 distance to todays route distance.

Admittedly, this might be too many adjustments for most, assuming you did it for all the horses in the field. Better to line up all the down the hillers and match up the best one, then look at the tandems from GGF and then the rest of the field at a mile on turf. Note that there are some horses who have only won their maiden race coming into this stake, never a great bet, but for these you could match up their mile turf races and use the best one in the final analysis. You might end up with one sprinter, one GGF horse, the best maiden and the best SA turf miler to match up.

I am a little pressed for time today and cannot post any further. Indian Wells tennis is calling me for an all day attendance event. Good luck to you all.

Bill

[The Pook]

Thanks for posting this Pete.

The 3 and the 9 are early sprinters in a route. Neither shows a pattern of closing up in sprints. I think they'll be way out in front. The race should go OTE (as many turf races do).

The 5 and 6 look too slow.

This leaves me with the 1,2,4,7, and 8.

There are a couple of tandem races here. The Eddie Logan stakes was very fast. The 2 and the 7 come out of that race. The other tandem is the last race for the 2 and 4.

1: This guy has had trouble at the start in 3 of 6 races. What's more, he doesn't close up in any of the sprints through the stretch call. OUT.
2: Ran well in both tandems. Contender.
4: Won the tandem against the 2. Contender.
7: Ran well in tandem. Will be behind 2. OUT.
8: Slow. OUT.

Conclusion:

This leaves me with the 2 and 4. This is a tough call. The 4 may get wrapped up in the pace.

The 2 is my choice.

GL

Tim

Tim, when you are talking about the #1, what do you mean that he does not close up in any sprint through the stretch call? It looks to me like that is when he is closing.

Pook

[Seven Furlongs]

Forgot to add, my post earlier in the thread was for the Santa Anita race.

[Bill Lyster]

Okay, I took the time required:

#1 is the best of the down the hillers, closing 8-8-6-1,beating the 3 who looks to go early with the 9.

2 and 4 are best turf milers. I look to the 2 to reverse the tandem from last out as it was first race as 3 yo and a layoff.

The 7 beat the two in a tandem a while back but i think the 2 runs closer to the lead. the tandem running positions for the 2 were 5-3-2-3 and for the 7 were 8-5-3-2.

Tough choice between the 2 and 7 for me. For me, the 2 at short odds, over the 7.

Bill

[mowens33]

My picks 2 and 4

[cigar]

sorry guys, no workup today my pick is 7 and 1

[cigar]

My pick 3 and 4

* if any of my top two pick scratch sub #2.

Congrat Mo nice hit.

[PeteC]

Mike does it again. Well done and a nice price. Solid matching Mike in a race that was not an easy Mind's Eye race (certainly for me). Here's the chart...

[The Pook]

Nice one again Mr. Mo

[Capcondo]

Tim, when you are talking about the #1, what do you mean that he does not close up in any sprint through the stretch call? It looks to me like that is when he is closing.

Pook

What I'm looking for in an OTE horse is a horse that makes significant positional moves between the first call and second call and/or the second call and the stretch call.

Let's take a look at the 1.

1C 2C STR
8 8 6
5 5 6
5 5 5
5 5 5
5 4 3

I didn't include his maiden race. These races were on the dirt, poly, and turf. In the last race, he was last after trouble at the start and passed two horses between the 2C and STR. The 3 previous races, he didn't pass anybody between these three calls. The 5th race back was on the poly and that is the only race where he was in a position to win the race at the stretch call. In spite of all this, he won two of those races!

Look at the stretch call position of all the races; 6,6,5,5,3. I just don't bet horses that can't get closer than this consistently.

Hope this answers your question.

Tim

[Seven Furlongs]

Congrats to the poster who had the 4 in the Santa Anita race.

[The Pook]

sorry guys, no workup today my pick is 7 and 1

Cigar, you normally supply good workups for your picks. Posting picks like a lottery doesn't work and I'm sure you can understand why. You must have put some matching thought to the above so we have to see something. It is only fair to everyone else. Even as little as what raceman5 is posting will do.

So lucky for you I'm not counting your entry for Saturday. Hopefully you see this before Sundays race and you elaborate on those choices.

Sorry man,
Pook

[Capcondo]

From equibase, there are no scratches in the 7th.

Tim

[Capcondo]

This is a good race Pete. Thanks for posting it.

It looks to me like the 1 and the 6 are early horses. I think the 6 will get the lead in something like 21.4 or 22.0

The horse that's really fast here is the 4. This horse has fought through a 21.2 43.3, 21.3 44, and 21 43.2. Nobody in this race can run that fast. At 6.5 furlongs, you worry about a pace duel. But, this horse breaks 4th and has shown he can pass horses during the race. If he gets a moderate pace to run against, he can run very fast at the end.

I saw the 4's last race which is the biggest race of the year at Turf Paradise near where I live. The race was won by a deep closer against those sizzling fractions. The 4 was there every step of the way.

The 4 is my choice to win.

GL

Tim

[PeteC]

Hi Tim, I am right with you. I like the 4 here. Looks like a wicked fighter than can win this one. My choice is the 4.....Omar

[cigar]

Cigar, you normally supply good workups for your picks. Posting picks like a lottery doesn't work and I'm sure you can understand why. You must have put some matching thought to the above so we have to see something. It is only fair to everyone else. Even as little as what raceman5 is posting will do.

So lucky for you I'm not counting your entry for Saturday. Hopefully you see this before Sundays race and you elaborate on those choices.

Sorry man,
Pook

No problem man, Enjoying some sunsine this week with limited internet access. Cheers all enjoy

[PeteC]

Hi Tim, I am right with you. I like the 4 here. Looks like a wicked fighter than can win this one. My choice is the 4.....Omar

by "wicked fighter" I mean the 3-call fight against the fplr.....

[mowens33]

My picks 3 and 8

[PeteC]

The man does it AGAIN...Mike you are doing an amazing job and you are dialed in as one can be...Well done...

[The Pook]

Was out of touch all day and just tuned in......what an amazing weekend for Mike Mowens! 2 great priced hits! Pete is right you are certainly dialed in. New contributor raceman5 also hit Sundays race so great way to start off. Congratulations to both of you. This will shake up the standings a bit. I will work those out and post tomorrow.

Pook

[mowens33]

Pook, Pete, thanks!!

I had that tri yesterday, I thought it would have paid a little more than it did with 11/1 and 8/1 sandwich between 3/2 favorite, but I can't complain made a little money.

I'v been doing fairly well combining all our picks in the tri! Thanks gentlemen!!

Mike

[Capcondo]

Congratulations Mike on a great weekend. Those were two very nice prices. Thanks also to PeteC for putting up two interesting races that paid 12+ and 23+!

[The Pook]

Hey Pete, Tim is right about these races that you post. You seem to have a knack for finding ones that are interesting and pay decent prices. You have been posting these for like half a year now and most of them fall into the above category. So thanks man.

Pook