1st call, 2nd call?

[Seven Furlongs]

I just wanted to ask any matchers out there or rdss users about which call, be it 1st or 2nd, that they base their early analysis on?

The advantage of placing importance on the second call is that it provides the foundation for doing any late fraction analysis. Doing late fraction analysis from the 1st call is just not very practical or useful. Also, the second call makes turn time analysis possible. So, if you do those two things as part of your handicapping, I can understand not placing much value on the 1st fraction.

But, I think if you have read Mahl's 'The race is pace' looking at the 1st call pace of the race provides, I think, a better way to visually represent the running ability of a horse on his 3 dimensional graphs. Basically, the graphs illustrate that there is obviously a spike in speed from zero at the start and that a race is basically an exercise in deceleration, of which usually happens from the 1st call onwards. If you focus too much on the 2nd call as some kind of pivot point for analysis, it is harder to imagine those deceleration graphs.

Another point in favour of first call analysis comes from Davidowitz, via Quirin, in which he quotes Quirin's findings 'that more than five out of every nine races on dirt are won by horses that rank 1-2-3 through the first quarter-mile call in sprints and the half mile call in routes.'

I write this asking the question somewhat selfishly, in that I would like to do my handicapping of the early scenario largely based on one call, mainly because I don't want to complicate my handicapping with too many numbers.

[The Pook]

From my own perspective SF, I am a 1st call guy. I look at the 2nd call only if I find it necessary to further decipher things. Seems to work for me in the long run. Their are a lot of different opinions on here though. Use whatever you are comfortable with. The matchup works in many ways.

Pook

[Lt1]

If I remember rightThe Hat always said the race doesn't start at the 2nd call.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

The race starts from the left side of the page in all cases. The best breaker of the earlies should never be discarded until you are sure that he cannot get the lead. A horse that ran early in 22.2 - 45.1 and broke 3rd/4th might never see the 45.1 at the 2c if it faces another early that shows 22.0 - 45.3 where it breaks 1st/2nd

Also read the PPs from bottom to top to get the full picture of running style. Holding ground vs very fast paces or any length or position gain between 1c and 2c can indicate pressing ability.

[PeteC]

Start with the 1C position and POR in order to determine running styles, project today's pace, and to get an initial feel for the E/OTE call. From there, the last 2 fractions are still important but the 1C frames the analysis of the rest of the race.

[Capcondo]

I'd also add to what appears above the following two points:

Make sure your early horse is actually in the lead or fighting (within a hd or nk) for the lead when selecting the first call pace.

In routes, don't use the half mile first call. Use the quarter mile time from 1 1/16 or mile races. For 1 1/8 races and longer, try and calculate what the first quarter mile time would be.

[mowens33]

I like to find an early that I believe will be in the lead at the 1st and 2nd fractions, than determine my contender from those who have run well competing to the expedited fractions. I throw out Early's that I feel can't get to the lead and work from there.

Once I determine who can compete I will use other handicapping factors to help me with my final selection.

Gentlemen, thanks for sharing your thoughts! Good stuff!!

Mike

[polambi]

:cool: Tom Brohamer said that there is no better opportunuty than an early horse with the best second fraction. I believe he is right, because I have seen so many horses spit out a fast first fraction, only to quit right after that initial burst.
The reality is that almost any horse can spit out a fast first fraction. In my own wagering "adventures", I now look for the lone early horse in any dirt race. One thing I keep in mind is that if a horse is gonna be challenged at the first call, it is very unlikely that this horse will actually win the race.

[RichieP]

"Rich you can either match raw or use this adjustment chart ok? What is important is picking ONE way and sticking with it consistently." - Jim Bradshaw in one of our first teaching sessions together in 2006

Hi everyone,
I put that quote up to show that there is more than one way to skin the cat. The Hat understood and told me this. So first call, second call etc it's all good if it works for you.

I would call Jim many times at night, he'd be watching replays and he would tell me often "Rich I am just watching them run. Watch the break, where they are, look at their heads (are they looking around like they are confused or in position not accustomed to in the "heard" or "pack"). Remember Rich they are pack animals with dominants , mid pack and trailing runners. Many horses will give up completely when they are not or can not get to that comfortable place or zone in the herd. Others will "fight" like hell to get where they want to be, look other horses in the eye and intimidate or "boss" them around."

Hat always started as far left on the pp line as possible ( break, 1c, 2c, sc) NEVER working a race past the stretch call with me. Never. One of his gifts was that he could see that pack or herd instinct from the pps, studying the line and seeing the animal what it was doing and if it was comfortable doing it.

He also taught me that when working route races with horses from different tracks to focus on the FIRST FRACTION, both pace of race and positioning. There is a whole thread in the Hat Check about that so it should be very clear the huge priority that Jim put on analyzing first fractions and break positioning.

Jim's Matchup Concepts live on through all of you taking the time to contribute to this Forum. He HAS to be smiling and loving all of your efforts in keeping his ideas and beliefs alive!

Good matching!
Richie

[Jeebs]

Nice to see you here, Richie! Hope that you will stick around and throw in your Little Hat wisdom from time to time!

[mowens33]

Paul, good to see you posting, and thanks for the sound advice!

Richie, thanks for posting! I've read most of your threads on the match-up and it has helped my handicapping tremendously!!

I hope you continue to chime in now and then to spread Mr. Bradshaw’s (The Hat) teaching which obviously has rubbed off on you!!!

Thanks again, Mike

[Bill Lyster]

"Rich you can either match raw or use this adjustment chart ok? What is important is picking ONE way and sticking with it consistently." - Jim Bradshaw in one of our first teaching sessions together in 2006

Hi everyone,
I put that quote up to show that there is more than one way to skin the cat. The Hat understood and told me this. So first call, second call etc it's all good if it works for you.

I would call Jim many times at night, he'd be watching replays and he would tell me often "Rich I am just watching them run. Watch the break, where they are, look at their heads (are they looking around like they are confused or in position not accustomed to in the "heard" or "pack"). Remember Rich they are pack animals with dominants , mid pack and trailing runners. Many horses will give up completely when they are not or can not get to that comfortable place or zone in the herd. Others will "fight" like hell to get where they want to be, look other horses in the eye and intimidate or "boss" them around."

Hat always started as far left on the pp line as possible ( break, 1c, 2c, sc) NEVER working a race past the stretch call with me. Never. One of his gifts was that he could see that pack or herd instinct from the pps, studying the line and seeing the animal what it was doing and if it was comfortable doing it.

He also taught me that when working route races with horses from different tracks to focus on the FIRST FRACTION, both pace of race and positioning. There is a whole thread in the Hat Check about that so it should be very clear the huge priority that Jim put on analyzing first fractions and break positioning.

Jim's Matchup Concepts live on through all of you taking the time to contribute to this Forum. He HAS to be smiling and loving all of your efforts in keeping his ideas and beliefs alive!

Good matching!
Richie

Richie:
I did a big time double take when I saw your post. You would do all of us a great favor by posting more often as few, if any of us, had as much face time with the The Hat. Looking forward to more matching wisdom. You are old enough to be wise, aren't you?

Bill

[Seven Furlongs]

Thanks for the replies, I greatly appreciate it.

I think for the sake of economy, I shouldn't sacrifice one call for the other. So, I realized that I should use both, starting from the first call and working my way towards the finish. I think I've settled on being a 1st call, 2nd call and finish matcher/capper.

I'm basically working the match-up Brohamer/Quirin speed points style, as after a hiatus from handicapping I'm trying to get to a method that is both economical in terms of the numbers it uses and effective. I decided on the Brohamer/Quirin speed points method because I can equalize with track to track that way. I am a mere mortal and do not have a track equalization chart etched in my mind the way the Hat did, so I need a crutch to lean on.


Nice match-up story from today. I thought Aqueduct would be some kind of soggy bog, so I didn't even handicap it until an hour before post when the track was deemed good. Cut to the second race, where the public for some reason believed that Todd Pletcher is in fact Jesus and could turn a horse that has run 1:14 3/5 on the inner in to something that could beat every other horse in the field, when in fact the Pletcher runner, the 6, looked terrible.

The winner, the 1 horse was superior because the Belmont 6.5 furlong race I used had the following pace times: 22 3/5, 45 4/5, and 1:17 4/5. Granted I had to go 6 deep to get that pace line, but the good form the horse was in justified me to do so. The thing I found so puzzling about this race is that at an extra 1/2 furlong the 1 horse's Belmont Paceline was a mere 3 1/5 seconds slower than the Pletcher horse that was being bet down.

Granted the 1 didn't pay boxcar prices, but a little over 10 bucks is a nice reward for a pretty easy match-up. The only difficulty in the race was knowing what a Belmont Paceline translates to the Big A's Inner track, but even without that knowledge, the 1 horse's last pace line, despite being in the slop, illustrated that it was much the better horse than the Pletcher 6 horse. The Match-Up nailed it.

And to echo what others have written, it would be great if Richie would post more often.

[The Pook]

Good one SF! Turns out we were in sync on this one. Bet the #1 along with another in there and made a small profit. Had the line 6 back as the pace line too which looked good considering its last race.