Matchup Challenge Mar 28/29 by Seven Furlongs

[The Pook]

Seven Furlongs has kindly asked to join the "roster of posters". So even though he is one furlong short of a mile :p(just foolin around man) I think we will look forward to what he has in store for us this week. 7UP

[Seven Furlongs]

For Saturday's Challenge I have selected the Florida Derby, Race 14(!?) on Saturday's Gulfstream Park Card. The race is, in a way, Upstart's Revenge, as a somewhat terrible ride from Jose Ortiz in the stretch resulted in a DQ last time out. Also, the Pletcher armada lurches toward the Derby with a new conscript in Materiality.

I have attached, or should be attached, the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances for the race.

This race is also the DRF Race of the day, so if you want to fiddle around with a limited version of Formulator, here is the link:

http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day

[The Pook]

Thanks again for posting Andre and supplying 2 formats for everybody. Good choice.

[mowens33]

Great way to see what Formulators all about, check it out its an excellent handicapping tool!

SF, thanks!!

Mike

[raceman5]

Not much to choose from So i will go with the Fountain of Youth Tandem race and choose the 4 and 9

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

The FPLR is the 7 Materiality, one of only two that ran 9 furlongs on dirt last out and while that might not mean much it was a pretty nice pace vs the rest of these.

My projected pace is 23.4-47.4-111.3-136.2 which was done at GP, btw. I see the 2 and 3 as wanna be pace setters that are weak; The 4 and 9 ran vs this early pace and finished slowly, so they are out; the 5 and 8 are NQ and out; the 6 might be a pace threat but finishes slowly, out.

This leaves the 1 and 7

1: 23.0-46.3-111.1-143.3; 6-4-3

7: 23.4-47.4-111.3-136.1-149.1: 2-2-1

The 7 can lead by two at the mile call in 136.1. While some in this field have run faster mile times all have been one turn miles. I think its possible that the 7 gets drawn too close to the lead, but look at the 1.

4 ticks faster at 1/4; 6 ticks faster at 1C; 2 faster @ 2C. If you positionally adjust this horse he wins.

My pick is the 1 on top, then the 7.

Good luck

[Seven Furlongs]

Does anyone have a preference for Sunday's race? Sprint or route? Dirt or turf?
Claimer or stakes race?

[The Pook]

Andre be selfish. Pick one that plays to your own strengths. Also it is not necessary to post more than one a weekend. Put up another only if you feel like it.

Pook

[Seven Furlongs]

For Florida's Derby, here are my general thoughts:

Not a lot of speed in this race, as it is cheap and slow. I think the only reason why the speed horses are entered in this race is to try and fight for either 4th or 5th place prize money. Other than that, I don't see either the 2, 5, or 6 winning this race. Also because of the potential for a slow to medium pace, you can forget the 3 and the 8 horse as they won't have the pace to create an opportunity to close.

This leaves me with the 1, 4, 7, 9. Which horses have run against the fastest pace? Despite drawing the numbers from 1 turn miles, both the 1 and the 4 have raced against the fastest 4 and 6 furlong pace in their respective 8 furlong races. So these two are my contenders.

My knock against the 7 horse is that although that last race at 9 furlongs was nice, the horse is being asked to run another 9 furlongs in 3 weeks time. Couple in the fact that this will only be the horse's 3rd race in its entire career, with no races run as a 2 year old, there is a chance for a bounce to happen.

As for the 9, it hasn't really run an exceptional looking race time-wise in comparison to the 1 or the 4. That Holy Bull Beyer number is for some reason a 105, yet its speed rating, which is calculated in comparison to the track record, is a modest 86. Scan through the non-Beyer speed ratings of both the 1 and the 4 and they look, on paper, to be faster horses.

Since I can't decide between the two, I will take both the :1: and the :4: to win.

[Seven Furlongs]

Sunday's Race will be the 4th race at Parx, a 6f sprint.

I decided on this race because the two horses with the lowest odds, the 2 and the 1, are coming off of layoffs over 90 days. So, there might be the opportunity for a nice price.

[cigar]

I am back to cold north. Mo may the force continue to be with you. What a weekend.

[mowens33]

Cigar thanks, hopefully I can keep it going!

[PeteC]

The 2 is the early horse, but not fast enough, and will get inhaled by one of several E/P or P types. I will use the 47.4 111.3 tandem as today's pace. The horses that have run the best against that pace are the 7 and 9. For the contest I will take the 7 to hold off the 9. My pick is the 7.

[DontSayDont]

I am not posting as wanting to enter into your contest but as a way to see if I am learning anything about the match up.

I have the POR to be 48.0, 72.0 with a final time of about 109.8. Guess the race will go OTE.

Horses and run styles.
1. S but may be closer. Trainer worked this horse from the gate and put in padding to help the horse get over its phobia of being in there. Looks like it may have worked, judging by the latest work.
2. EP or E. First race as a gelding so it could change running style.
3. S or EP. Hard to figure as it hasn't had a dirt race.
4. P I think he'll be laying 3rd or 4th early helping to force the #9 to go wide into the first turn.
5. E Looks to want to lead or press early but didn't keep up with the #7 in its last race.
6. E Think his dirt race from 8/14 at GP is best indicator of how he might run today.
7. EP With speed to his inside, he'll tuck in and try to save a bit of ground on the first turn but still help force the #9 to go wide.
8. NF Looks like a late running sprinter (off track only) with no route speed.
9. Even though he's won from the 7 & 8 posts, I think he'll be disadvantaged today from the 9 hole. If there's a race to beat him in, I think this may be the one.

I am hoping the padded gate gets the #1 into the race a bit sooner but not to wanting to go to the lead. I would bet this race, #1 to win.

[The Pook]

DontSayDont,

Oh come on play along....it doesn't cost anything(not yet anyway) and the more the merrier. Your evaluation is of excellent quality. We learn from everybody. I think you kind of want to be included, so if you enter this thread with all the requirements (which you have including your choice or choices at the bottom) I am going to consider you entered.

Pook

[DontSayDont]

Sorry. In my above post I got 2 horses and their gate problems incorrect. Ami's Flatter was not the horse I was thinking of. The gate problems and hopeful correction were for War Story who is running in LA Derby later today at Fair Grounds. He did have an improved 5f work on Mar.18.

I had him picked in his last race and will probably back him again today.

It doesn't change my liking Ami's Flatter in todays Fla.Derby.

Ray

[Capcondo]

After looking at the past performances in the drf link (thanks 7f), the thing that really stuck out was how slow the Fountain of Youth race was. These 1st saturday in May horses ran 1:46+ for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track which is 5 2/5 seconds off the three year best. Then I clicked on the date for one of the horses in the FOY to read the chart. There was so much trouble and the race was so slow, I decided I couldn't use the race. I'm evaluating all horses off races other than the FOY.

The 2 looks like he'll get the lead but won't last the 1 1/8 miles. I'll put the pace somewhere around 23.4 for the first quarter. Here are the others:

1: Late running horse. In for now.
3: Slow. OUT.
4: Handled a fast pace 2 back at a flat mile. Contender.
5: Beaten badly in the tandem last out. Other races are slow. OUT.
6: Race 2 back shows this horse is slow. Will keep pace honest. OUT.
7: Likes to sit 2nd which could be a problem. Pace will be faster today. Contender.
8: OUT
9: Can power move and run against fast paces from middle positions. Contender.

Conclusion:

I think the 1 will be too far back. The 7 will face a faster pace than last time. This leaves me with the 4 and 9. I know I said I wasn't going to use the FOY. But, the 9 was ahead of the 4 in that race before the trouble started. The 9 has also run against much faster paces than these others.

The 9 is my choice to win the race.

GL

Tim

[The Pook]

Gulfstream Saturday March 28 Race 14

Comparing (2 turn) to (1 turn) route fractions was a little intimidating so I ended up basically doing the matchup from (1 turn) routes. That left for me, 2 contenders (#1 and #4) of which I prefer the #4. I matched this three times from scratch and ended in the same place (#1 and #4). It looks like the early money is on the #7 and #9 heavily. The chalkers may be right but one sees what ones sees and my minds eye sees this.

[The Pook]

Congrats to Bill and Pete! Pete cold cocked it even. Good matchin boys and.......wait...wait there's somethin in my eyes...my vision is a little blurry...hold..hold on.....it's chalk...CHALK!...my minds eye is full of chalk...no wonder...oh well.

Pook

[PeteC]

Congrats to Bill and Pete! Pete cold cocked it even. Good matchin boys and.......wait...wait there's somethin in my eyes...my vision is a little blurry...hold..hold on.....it's chalk...CHALK!...my minds eye is full of chalk...no wonder...oh well.

Pook
Lol Pook, I'm glad you're not posting my average mutuel for this contest :eek:

Anyway, on to Sunday. The 4 and 9 are my earlies and don't think they will last. From the ote's the 3 and 7 are closest to the pace. Matching their last lines against each other I prefer the 3.....

[cigar]

Congrats Master Pete and others who won Sat. Getting tired of seconds and third.

This is the hardest race I've match so far.

[Seven Furlongs]

The 7 is scratched from the 4th race at Parx.

My 2 kopeks worth regards this race:

The 9, 4, and 3 look to fight for the lead and potentially set fast fractions. The interesting thing about the 3 is that it is trained by Roman Preciado, who also has another entry in the 8 horse. Maybe the 3's purpose is to be a rabbit and cook the first two fractions? Seems possible.

So, because of that, the 9, 4 and the 3 are out and I think the race will run OTE.

The best off the pace horse is the 8 horse, which is the uncoupled Preciado horse. It has done well against a 22 1/5, 44 1/5 pace, finishing in 1:08 3/5. Granted I don't think the pace will be that fast, but, since the other very good off the pace horse is coming off a layoff over 90 days, the 2 horse, I think the 8 will win.

Win bet on the 8.

[mowens33]

Ote

[The Pook]

Geez Mike, looks like we concur.

[The Pook]

Just so this is in the thread from yesterday

[Capcondo]

I'm going to pass the PARX race.

[raceman5]

Well guess i will go with the tandem horses of the Feb21 race 3 and 6

Bob

[The Pook]

This will be interesting. So far at Parx nobody is coming from way off the pace. The front horses are able to stay there. Most of us here are calling OTE including me in our matchup race. The first race technically ran OTE but from the 2nd position. Hopefully our OTE's won't be too far back. But the matchup is about the matchup in the race you are looking at and even though what I've seen so far gives me pause for cause I will stay the course.

Pook

[The Pook]

Yikes! Even more interesting. The third race is won by a lone early. Called it and had it and will pay low but the pattern continues. Fingers crossed boys. Actually cigar is calling for an early type to be right there.....we will see.

Pook

[The Pook]

Way to go boys!!!! The matchup nailed it and most of us here in this forum profited. Hats off to The Hat. And that was a nice choice of race 7F.

Pook

[Seven Furlongs]

It's the 3!

I picked the wrong Preciado horse.

[The Pook]

Just realized Pete cold-cocked the whole weekend! Kudos to the Mastaaa!

[PeteC]

Well done guys, lots of tickets cashed today. Thanks for the kind words Pook and thanks for these two race 7F.

[The Pook]

Chart from Sunday