Matchup Challenge Apr 11/15 (CAN YOU HIT THE HAT TRICK TRIPLE)? by The Pook

[The Pook]

The Challenge is taking a weekend off but tune back in for
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A Special Weekend Feature on April 11th!
Think you can hit THE HAT TRICK TRIPLE?
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I will post 3 races in this thread for April 11th using this criteria.

[The Pook]

The races will be in PDF Format of course even though there is a little sort of accidental plug for RDSS above which is naturally an awesome way to do the Matchup.

Pook

[mowens33]

Pook, I agree that RDSS is an excellent tool when it comes to the Matchup!

Mike

[Ted Craven]

Hi Guys! I'll accept that as a friendly challenge/invitation to chime in a bit more here (well, chime in at all, I guess :o). Too late for me to join the contest challenge, but I will post my comments and process about the featured races that coming weekend after Easter - from my understanding and usage of Matchup ideas, and using RDSS.

If I can, maybe a few new goodies from RDSS 2.1 ;)

cheers,

Ted

[raceman5]

Like the idea Ted, looking forward to it.

Bob

[mowens33]

Ted, that would be Great!

Thanks, Mike

[The Pook]

Ted it would be great to have you chime in. You wrote that it is too late to join our contest. Not true!

I just want to remind everybody that anybody can participate at any time. Every valid entry (see players rules and guidelines in earlier thread in this forum) will be scored to your overall ROI. On Dec 31 at the end of the contest, to be counted in the final tally an entrant will have to have played in a minimum of 50% of the races. We seem to do about 2 a weekend. So with approximately 36 weekends left that makes 72 races plus the 8 already gone makes 80 more or less. In theory you could do the last 20 weekends from mid August on and still qualify.

Would love to see some more of the matchup masters that have been on this site for many years show us how they think these things through. Of course all of us are busy but to matchup a race for the experienced is a matter of minutes not hours.

And novices shouldn't be timid about putting up their opinions. You can learn some good stuff while participating about this rather contrarian approach to predicting the future two minutes at a time.

I think, as I have mentioned before, that this will migrate into an honourary buy-in contest next year (meaning if you enter you pledge to send the buy-in amount to the winner at the end). But that will be subject to a vote by this years entrants.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Mike for that clarification! OK, I'd better roll up my sleeves (although any month now here in Central Ontario I'll be migrating to short sleeves http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif). Maybe we'll hook up at Woodbine this Spring. I'll be there May 9 again in Champions for Mum's annual Birthday Party: you - and everyone else - are warmly invited!

Happy Easter!

Ted

[cigar]

Pook I hope I am posting this feed in the right place?

Gents it's bye week, so I went back and look at the races we have capped.
In my contender selection lies 80% of the winners 4/5, my win race is 20% 1/5
I limit my contenders selection to 4 max, that give me a 50% change to pick the winner from my two horse selection.

Looking for some input on how to convert more of that 80% to the winning side.

[The Pook]

Cigar, it looks like you have missed a winner you had on March 7 at Golden Gate. Here is your current chart.

Pook

[cigar]

Cigar, it looks like you have missed a winner you had on March 7 at Golden Gate. Here is your current chart.

Pook

Thanks Pook,

Contenders selection = 83% - 5/6
Picked Winners = 33% - 2/6

[The Pook]

Cigar, with that info your record isn't bad. Too few races and too short a time to be really concerned about. I know one thing that can help ROI though is to bet one choice only. You have to be confident and it requires more balls but in the long run it lessens the drag. A look after 6 months will be more meaningful.

Pook

[cigar]

Cigar, with that info your record isn't bad. Too few races and too short a time to be really concerned about. I know one thing that can help ROI though is to bet one choice only. You have to be confident and it requires more balls but in the long run it lessens the drag. A look after 6 months will be more meaningful.

Pook

you are right, sample size is too small to draw any meaning full conclusions. Any feedback is welcome for the group.

Happy Easter all.............

[The Pook]

The 3 races for the Hat Trick will be as follows. They all have good speed to read.

1) April 11, Tampa Bay Race 5, 8.5F Turf, Claiming 25000, 2:43 ET
2) April 11, Santa Anita Race 5, 6.5F Dirt, Kona Gold Stakes G2, 5:30 ET
3) April 11, Oaklawn Race 11, 9F Dirt, Arkansas Derby G1, 7:18 ET

Files and readouts to come.

[The Pook]

April 11, Tampa Bay Race 5, 8.5F Turf, Claiming 25000, 2:43 ET

[The Pook]

April 11, Tampa Bay Race 5, 8.5F Turf, Claiming 25000, 2:43 ET 1 to 4

[The Pook]

April 11, Tampa Bay Race 5, 8.5F Turf, Claiming 25000, 2:43 ET 5 to 9

[The Pook]

April 11, Tampa Bay Race 5, 8.5F Turf, Claiming 25000, 2:43 ET 10 to 12

[raceman5]

I will go with the tandem race from March 15 and play the 4-10

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

Tampa 5th:
I like that tandem, but the 2 looks to be very lonely on the front end and appears to be carrying speed farther. For me the best presser is the 7, so 2 and 7 with the 4 as the late running place horse. Win on 2 and 7.

SA 5:
Every horse except the 4 has won from 1st, 2nd or 3rd back at any point in the race. All but the 4 are very speedy, but the fastest is the 6.

My picks are 6 and 4. I will box them and hope that the 4's layoff can be over come. The 4 is a multiple time grade 2 winner and the only graded stake winner that shows in the PPs and races at even weights!

OP 11:
Really hoping to see some race horse times in this race. AGain, I am at the opposite ends of the spectrum here, taking the 6 American Pharoah as the best early and the 7 Far Right as the best closer (love the way he passes horses and makes up ground). 6 and 7 to win

[raceman5]

Santa Anita Race 5

I will go with the 6 Masochistic. Its all or nothing for this horse can click off 21 for the quater and win.


Oaklawn R11

take the tandem race of march 14 6-4


Bob

[The Pook]

Geez...one week off and everybodys chomping at the bit. Good sign. Still waiting to get the program files for SA for tomorrow before I post the PP's. Must still be asleep out there.

Pook

[PeteC]

Tampa: There looks to be a lone E in the 2, but my feeling is still OTE here. I matched the field against the 46.2 from the 2's last race. This left me with the 3,4 and 5. The 3 and 4 close from waaaay back so I will take the 5 to win.

I will NOT be hitting the Hat triple, that's for sure. The Santa Anita race leaves me scratching my head and the Oaklawn race I will just be watching.

BTW Pook: Yep, the west coast tracks (Santa Anita and Golden Gate) don't post their program files until about 12:30 local time the day before! Very last minute compared to other tracks around the country and not as convenient for the handicappers IMO.

Good luck everyone...

[Latekick]

id like to take part in this how do i join and what is the rules

[The Pook]

id like to take part in this how do i join and what is the rules

Latekick, just post into this thread your matchup thoughts on each of the races. Clearly mark which race and have your choice or choices clearly marked at the end. You will then be a participant. Refer to the player rules thread posted a couple of months ago in this forum as to how it all works.

Pook

[The Pook]

Latekick, in case you haven't noticed we are doing 3 races this weekend. Play any or all.

Pook

[The Pook]

2) April 11, Santa Anita Race 5, 6.5F Dirt, Kona Gold Stakes G2, 5:30 ET

[The Pook]

2) April 11, Santa Anita Race 5, 6.5F Dirt, Kona Gold Stakes G2, 5:30 ET 1 to 4

[The Pook]

2) April 11, Santa Anita Race 5, 6.5F Dirt, Kona Gold Stakes G2, 5:30 ET 5 to 7

[The Pook]

3) April 11, Oaklawn Race 11, 9F Dirt, Arkansas Derby G1, 7:18 ET

[The Pook]

3) April 11, Oaklawn Race 11, 9F Dirt, Arkansas Derby G1, 7:18 ET 1 to 4

[The Pook]

3) April 11, Oaklawn Race 11, 9F Dirt, Arkansas Derby G1, 7:18 ET 5 to 8

[The Pook]

Hopefully scratches don't screw with things

[The Pook]

When I picked this one I didn't quite realize how tough it was. Even Pete balked. I would probably pass it too but I guess I should be a sport and play my own posts.

[The Pook]

I see this the way Bill does. Best Early against Best Late.

[mowens33]

Ote

[mowens33]

Latekick, in case you haven't noticed we are doing 3 races this weekend. Play any or all.

Pook

Latekick, Go through the Match-up and pick your top 2 for the win.

That's it!!

Good Luck

Mike

[Capcondo]

Tampa Bay Race #5:

This race comes down to the 2, 4, and 10 tandem and to the 5. In turf races, I'm a big fan of internal fractions. Hidden energy and late pace win these kind of races frequently.

Like others, I don't think the 2 will make it. The 9 may apply some pressure. The 10's best races are near the lead; a bad place to be in this race. This leaves the 4 and 5. The 5 didn't run well against a slow pace. Against a fast pace, however, in the last race and the 4th race back, he ran well.

The 5 is my choice.

I'll look at the other races tomorrow. Good Luck.

Tim

[DontSayDont]

In regards to the Tampa race. I ended up with a pace of 46.3 (5ths) and 70.3. Then when it comes to a final time where my pace horse ran an adjusted 103.8 another horse has a 103.0 but off much slower early fractions. How does one go about figuring which final time to use. The horse with the fastest final time is about 8 lengths off the early pace and gains about 5-6 in the stretch which would leave it behind but with actual posted final times faster.

If this race was at 8.0 furlongs, I would take the #2 to wire the field but at 8.5f today, I like the 4 and 7.

Ray

[mowens33]

Ote

[The Pook]

1) April 11, Tampa Bay Race 5, 8.5F Turf, Claiming 25000, 2:43 ET

Scratches: 11/12.

[cigar]

Another good Matching weekend. Pook you have race the bar again.

[The Pook]

Cigar, just a comment on your entries. Your detailed and precise layout information of your matchup process is second to none. There is no vagueness as to what you are thinking. Excellent.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

Earlies - 9 and 2. #9 will Fight whatever is out there and will NOT survive Projected Pace of #2 = 22.7 46.5. And #2 will also not survive the #9's challenge, as demonstrated in the lat half of its races.

So = OTE, which best (IMO) are 7-4-5.

#7 is a form mystery off last race, but otherwise superior off line 2 and 3
#4 closed best (versus #5) against a faster pace (above noted Projected Pace, and 110.3 to the 6f mark), last race (Tandem with pacesetter #2)

So, holding my nose on the #7 and going with:

#7 and #4 to Win

(FWIW, Exacta looks something like 4-5-7 / 1-4-5-7; for Tri, add 1-4-5-7-10 in hole 3; and for sport, go with ALL in 4th position for the Super = $18.90 for the dime).

Good luck folks! More later.

Ted

[The Pook]

2) April 11, Santa Anita Race 5, 6.5F Dirt, Kona Gold Stakes G2, 5:30 ET

Scratches: 2

[The Pook]

3 Live ones for The Hat Trick

Pete, Pook, Capcondo and Cigar tagged the winner in the first leg. Pete is not entering the other legs.

[Capcondo]

I too will past the 5th at SA and the Arkansas Derby. The 5th at SA is too tough and the Arkansas Derby looks tooooooo short in price.

Good Luck,

Tim

[gandalf380]

santa anita 5th #2 Caminetto

oaklawn park 11th #1 The Truth or Else

[The Pook]

santa anita 5th #2 Caminetto

oaklawn park 11th #1 The Truth or Else

Gandalf, the 2 is scratched at SA. For your entry to qualify you need to explain, however briefly, from a matchup perspective how you arrived at your choice.

Pook

[KBROD]

Santa anita race 5. Ill have to side with the # 4 sahara sky..hes rested and has ample speed up frontof him..late pace numbers are large 6.5 f should be a nice start for him on the comeback...pics....4-6

[KBROD]

Oaklawn r11. 6-8......ap just loves to run..he will run the others into ground chasing..#8win the space..bred to goall day..up and comer..good late pace numbers to close after the tired horses........6-8

[Ted Craven]

#4 Sahara Sky.

Lone OTE ! Too much pace pressure on everyone else. Has the Class credentials to win a G2. Rested. Can win off a long layoff. Working well. Rather nice Odds at the moment (7/2). What more do we need!?

Ted

[The Pook]

1 Live one for The Hat Trick

Bill, Raceman, Pook and Kbrod tagged the winner in the 2nd leg. Pook is the only one still kicking for the triple.

[gandalf380]

"The Truth or Else" has been an improved horse since the addition of Lasix. Showed improved speed last time out and adds blinkers. Has a sharp work. Two races back he finished strongly after a poor start of a layoff. He may have bounced last time out but todays he finds a pace scenario more to his liking. With the equipment change he should find it easier to be closer to the lead while maintaining his late kick.

[The Pook]

"The Truth or Else" has been an improved horse since the addition of Lasix. Showed improved speed last time out and adds blinkers. Has a sharp work. Two races back he finished strongly after a poor start of a layoff. He may have bounced last time out but todays he finds a pace scenario more to his liking. With the equipment change he should find it easier to be closer to the lead while maintaining his late kick.

Ten-four Gandalf380...welcome aboard. And welcome too, to two (heh thats cool, how often do you get to put the three spellings of the word "to" together) new players Ted Craven and Kbrod.

Pook

[The Pook]

(1-9) on the #6! Seriously! He may do it but I see the #2 possibly softening him up early for a closer. Not worth (1-9). I will stick with the 6 here as part of my picks but wouldn't really bet it.

Pook

[KBROD]

American pharoah is scary lookin good..wow

[The Pook]

Yeah man. Didn't see the jockey even ask. Just a hand ride.

[The Pook]

Pook gets his own Hat Trick:o

Bill, Raceman, Pook and Kbrod tag the last leg. Them and about 100,000 other punters. Kind of a lunch-bag letdown triple and I feel like I backed into it. Oh well it was a profitable day. Thanks to all for taking part. We will see what Mike can set up for us next week.

Pook

[mowens33]

Pook, why to go my man!!

Mike