Matchup Challenge Apr 25/26 by PeteC

[The Pook]

PeteC

[PeteC]

Here are the early PP's for Saturday's 7th race at Santa Anita. It's a good-sized field and pace projection seems clear enough which I always like. I'll post the program PP's tomorrow when they're available...

[Bill Lyster]

No need because the post postions are shown on the PPs as verified by equibase entries for Saturday.

[Bill Lyster]

Lots of early speed, the 1-2-4-5-6-8

The 1, 2, 6 and 8 won on open leads although the 1 has pressed 21.4-45.0-110.0. The 4 is just slow; the 5 has fought in 22.0-44.3-109.0 in its races at TUP, but at most likely a higher race level (not sure?); the 6 can press and gain lengths vs slower paces; the 9 is 1/69 races (yes you read that correctly).

The 5 has fought and can get to the 5f mark in 56.2 off of a 44.2 2nd call. I think this is the speed of the speed, but he could be compromised by all the rest of the speed, mostly from the 8 who ran 5f in 56.3

This leaves the 3 and the 7. The 3 is a bona fide mystery to me. After closing from 1C to 2C in the Grade 1 Malibu he dropped to this class and won handily. The PPs show that this horse has only once before been for sale, that being in his win at this level. Then he moved into open optional claiming and WAS NOT for sale. Now after dropping back to this State-bred $20K level HE IS FOR SALE. In his defense he stalked 44.1's in its last two races, gaining lengths both times, and has shown in two wins a need to lead at the stretch call. A repeat of two back would put him in the lead at that point over the battling speed. The 3 is one of only 3 horses with 2 or more wins, the 5 and 6 are the others.

The 7 has four races, all of them off layoffs, BUT he can run from 4th or 6th and pass horses. Its last race was probably an experiment after pressing a down the hill debut.

The main players for me are the 3-5-7 and all of them have question marks.

I think I will wait for Saturday scratch time to make a decision.

[GeorgeC5614]

Santa Anita Race 7 4/25

Race Styles

Yikes is there a lot of horses that want the lead in this one :)

1 Early 22 45.1
2 Early 22.3 45.4 but the last three were Ugly I tossed this horse
3 Presser
4 Early 22.1 46
5 Early 22 44.3
6 Early 22.1 44.4
7 Presser
8 Early 21.4 44.3 fastest pace last race
9 Sustain

The pace of race is from the 8's last race 21.4 44.3 1:09.2 which is very fast

The 8 has never had to fight before, and the 1 horse is capable of running a 21.4 in the first quarter before fading. I am going to say that this will cause the race to run OTE which leaves just the 3 , 7 and 9 as my contenders. I am worried that the 8 will be able to hang on though.

The 3 has won against a 21.3 44.1 pace being 3 3 1, The 7 has run 4 3 1 against 21.4 45, and the 9 has run 4 3 2 against 21.4 44.2 that will put the 3 ahead of the 7 and 9 when the earlies tire.

My win bets would be on the 3 and the 8

[cigar]

Pete another great race you found to match. I will update if any scratches.

[Bill Lyster]

Lots of early speed, the 1-2-4-5-6-8

The 1, 2, 6 and 8 won on open leads although the 1 has pressed 21.4-45.0-110.0. The 4 is just slow; the 5 has fought in 22.0-44.3-109.0 in its races at TUP, but at most likely a higher race level (not sure?); the 6 can press and gain lengths vs slower paces; the 9 is 1/69 races (yes you read that correctly).

The 5 has fought and can get to the 5f mark in 56.2 off of a 44.2 2nd call. I think this is the speed of the speed, but he could be compromised by all the rest of the speed, mostly from the 8 who ran 5f in 56.3

This leaves the 3 and the 7. The 3 is a bona fide mystery to me. After closing from 1C to 2C in the Grade 1 Malibu he dropped to this class and won handily. The PPs show that this horse has only once before been for sale, that being in his win at this level. Then he moved into open optional claiming and WAS NOT for sale. Now after dropping back to this State-bred $20K level HE IS FOR SALE. In his defense he stalked 44.1's in its last two races, gaining lengths both times, and has shown in two wins a need to lead at the stretch call. A repeat of two back would put him in the lead at that point over the battling speed. The 3 is one of only 3 horses with 2 or more wins, the 5 and 6 are the others.

The 7 has four races, all of them off layoffs, BUT he can run from 4th or 6th and pass horses. Its last race was probably an experiment after pressing a down the hill debut.

The main players for me are the 3-5-7 and all of them have question marks.

I think I will wait for Saturday scratch time to make a decision.

Adding to this crapshoot is the fact that none of the early horses consistently breaks first or second, so someone will have to go out strong at the start or there will be five across the track at the 1C. All the more indication of an OTE winner.

[raceman5]

I like #3 Frensham- can withstand 21's and 44.1
Also like #8 Rule He Will- again can withstand the 21's and 44.3

Bob

[PeteC]

Bill L....thanks for letting me know, that's a good point. Nevertheless, here is the update for those who like to peek at the ML.....

[PeteC]

Here is a race for Sunday at PRX. A small 6 horse field but an interesting match-up to me....

[raceman5]

Will take 1 and 6 out of the tandem race April 7.

[The Pook]

Saturday April 25, Santa Anita, Race 7

[KBROD]

sa race 7. i will be on the #7 ROLO TAMCI. PROVEN AGAINST THIS PACE. CUTTING BACK .I SEE HIM SITTING 4TH/5TH..AND HIS LATE PACE NUMBERS FIT WELL...TOP CONNECTIONS ALSO/.........3 @7

[The Pook]

sa race 7. i will be on the #7 ROLO TAMCI. PROVEN AGAINST THIS PACE. CUTTING BACK .I SEE HIM SITTING 4TH/5TH..AND HIS LATE PACE NUMBERS FIT WELL...TOP CONNECTIONS ALSO/.........3 @7

KBROD, I am a little confused as to your intent. At first you write you will be on #7. But then at the end you've got the numeral 3 also. Can you clarify by stating clearly at the end which choice or choices. (Eg. WIN 3 and 7)

Thanks Pook

[The Pook]

Sunday April 26, Parx, Race 3

[GeorgeC5614]

Part Sunday race 3

Race styles
1 Sustain
2 Early 23.1
3 Early 23
4 Press
5 Early 23
6 Sustain

The pace is from tbe3 last race 23 46.4

This race sets up as other than early The three early horses will cancel each other out The 1 beat the 6 in a tandem race, but it was at a much faster pace so I think that tandem will reverse. The 4 has run competitively against st this pace and faster, and will be closer to the front when the earliest start to tire.

My win bet this will be the 4 and the 6

[KBROD]

KBROD, I am a little confused as to your intent. At first you write you will be on #7. But then at the end you've got the numeral 3 also. Can you clarify by stating clearly at the end which choice or choices. (Eg. WIN 3 and 7)

Thanks Pook....i thought u were supposed to put 2 horses here..if thats not the case...im on the 7 only...thanks for asking

[KBROD]

sun. prx......#5 awkino cat.....made some good hit with him in past.....should sit good trip off cheap speed...trainer has him sharp now for this class.....top late pace

[Capcondo]

SA Race #7:

Typical of a race that PeteC posts, there is definable early speed here.

The 1 looks like he can handle a 22.0. If the 2 ever gets out of the gate, we may find what he can run. The 5 ran 22.0 at Turf Paradise; not good enough here. I'll put the 6 on a 22.0 as well after a good layoff race. The 8 ran a 21.4 in a maiden race with a 1L lead. I think the first call will be 21.4 and the race will go OTE.

The OTE crowd is headed by the 3. The 3 beat our friend Head South, who won the challenge race that Mike put up last Sunday. In face, the 3 was the last horse to beat Head South. Head South has now won 2 in a row. The 3 is a contender.

The other OTE horse is the 7. This horse has not run well against winners. OUT.

I have a feeling the 3 is going to be hammered at the windows. The 2 is the scare horse. I don't know what he'll do.

The 3 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Lots of early speed, the 1-2-4-5-6-8

The 1, 2, 6 and 8 won on open leads although the 1 has pressed 21.4-45.0-110.0. The 4 is just slow; the 5 has fought in 22.0-44.3-109.0 in its races at TUP, but at most likely a higher race level (not sure?); the 6 can press and gain lengths vs slower paces; the 9 is 1/69 races (yes you read that correctly).

The 5 has fought and can get to the 5f mark in 56.2 off of a 44.2 2nd call. I think this is the speed of the speed, but he could be compromised by all the rest of the speed, mostly from the 8 who ran 5f in 56.3

This leaves the 3 and the 7. The 3 is a bona fide mystery to me. After closing from 1C to 2C in the Grade 1 Malibu he dropped to this class and won handily. The PPs show that this horse has only once before been for sale, that being in his win at this level. Then he moved into open optional claiming and WAS NOT for sale. Now after dropping back to this State-bred $20K level HE IS FOR SALE. In his defense he stalked 44.1's in its last two races, gaining lengths both times, and has shown in two wins a need to lead at the stretch call. A repeat of two back would put him in the lead at that point over the battling speed. The 3 is one of only 3 horses with 2 or more wins, the 5 and 6 are the others.

The 7 has four races, all of them off layoffs, BUT he can run from 4th or 6th and pass horses. Its last race was probably an experiment after pressing a down the hill debut.

The main players for me are the 3-5-7 and all of them have question marks.

I think I will wait for Saturday scratch time to make a decision.

My picks are the 5 and 7. I can see that 3 is best presser, but why is he for sale for $20,000 when he could have been for sale last time for $40,000!!?? If he wins the winners share is over $30K I get that, but too much bias for me.

5 and 7

[mowens33]

Sa 7

[PeteC]

The earlies are the 1,5,6 and 8. I used the POR from the 8 for today's pace (21.4 44.3).

The 8 looks the fastest but with the others showing willingness to fight I think that negates the 8's early advantage. I'm looking OTE against 21.4 44.3....

The 3 stands out to me. Comes out of the FPLR where it made a nice move 1C to 2C and held position to the SC. Line 2 made another power move against a fast pace and went on to win the race. The 3 is my choice.

[The Pook]

....i thought u were supposed to put 2 horses here..if thats not the case...im on the 7 only...thanks for asking

You can bet one or two horses to win per race. I prefer that after your spiel about how you arrived at your choices, at the bottom of the reply, that these horses numbers are clearly written. It just makes it easier for me to score.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 7

I'll go with #3 and #1.

So much early here, that OTE is a natural bias - hence the #3 who can close from 3rd against sub 22 -- 45. I will select one of the Earlies in case, and while the #8 last won setting a fast 21.9 44.7 2 weeks ago, for better value I will take the #1, a bit fresher with VERY nice works.

#1 is getting a bit of support on tote Xray analysis.

For an Exacta play, I'll box these 2 with the #7, another nice closer.

Ted

[KBROD]

good job mike

[KBROD]

nice ted just seen yours

[PeteC]

Well done Mike and Ted....a very nice winner...

[PeteC]

Small field, but maybe an okay price. The 3 is early with the 2 and 5 E/P. Used POR on the 3...23 and 46.4. I'm not going to the OTE group here. I will take the 4 who is an E/P that has won from 3rd position. It won it's last race nicely so I feel good going back to an earlier power line. Line 5 it won from 3rd against 21.4 44.1. That line beats the other two earlies. I'll take the 2.

[cigar]

Mo/Ted and others congrat - Sat was nice price.

[mowens33]

Prax

[Capcondo]

Scratch at PARX:

The 5 is out in the 3rd race.

Tim

[Capcondo]

Race 3 at PARX:

I'm going to pass this race. Good luck all. See you next week for the first Saturday in May.

Tim

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race 3

My selection: #4

Can close from various positions from 3rd - 6th. Speedballs #2 and #3 cancel each other. #2 needs open lengths at 2nd call of 46 & change, which #3 will not permit (if in form).

Not great odds ...

Ted

[PeteC]

The 2 gets it done....Congrats to all the winners this weekend, especially yesterday! Now on to Derby week guys!!!