Matchup Challenge May 23/24 by Pete C

[The Pook]

Pete

[PeteC]

Let's take a shot at the opener on the Saturday card at Arlington....

[PeteC]

....And the 6th race at Golden Gate on Sunday...

[khannamark]

HI,
I am interested in trying this competition even though I am late. I would be competing for the fun of it.So, if its ok by you all I will start with Saturdays 1st at AP.
I see #6 Chatito's top paceline eliminating earlies #2,7,8, but the 6 may not get the open 1 length lead that he needs to win. Reluctantly I shift to pressers.
Among the pressers #1 looks to be out of form,#3 looks to be slow,leaving me with the 4 and 5.
If I redo the race using only turf and artificial pacelines I get the 5 as the only one moving on the 6. Also the 5 has a win off 21.3 44.3
So my choice is the 5.`

[The Pook]

HI,
I am interested in trying this competition even though I am late. I would be competing for the fun of it.So, if its ok by you all I will start with Saturdays 1st at AP.
I see #6 Chatito's top paceline eliminating earlies #2,7,8, but the 6 may not get the open 1 length lead that he needs to win. Reluctantly I shift to pressers.
Among the pressers #1 looks to be out of form,#3 looks to be slow,leaving me with the 4 and 5.
If I redo the race using only turf and artificial pacelines I get the 5 as the only one moving on the 6. Also the 5 has a win off 21.3 44.3
So my choice is the 5.`

Hey welcome to our group man. Lots of time, not too late. Nice matchup thinking too. Good luck and have fun!

Pook

[KBROD]

arlington.....ill be on a speed and a closer here win plays......#4......#8

[The Pook]

Saturday

[KBROD]

golden gate.......will have hot pace to run at from rail...hot connections,likes track and distance #1 just after sunset

[cigar]

Speed group get eliminated - OTE Win

[GeorgeC5614]

5/23/2105 Race 1 Arlington Park

Projected pace 21.8 44.8 also FPLR from the 6 horse

The 1 and 3 are just slow horses and I threw them out. The 2 I eliminated because I think he is an early horse that will not get the lead.

There are three comparable earlies the 6, 7 and 8, and I believe they will eliminate each other. The 8 has won with a faster 2nd call time, but it looks like he needs to have at least a 2 length lead to wire the field, and will not have that. This race should run OTE which leaves just the 4 and 5 as contenders.

Four races back the 5 ran against this pace, and won. His last race was the first time at the track, and the two before that were a bit slower. The 4 hasn't run to this pace yet, but looks like he will be ahead of the 5 when the leaders tire.

My picks are the 4 and the 5

[Capcondo]

5/23 Race 1 AP:

Interesting race Pete. Because AP has only been open a week or so, I had to use some dirt races to match these horses. I tried to use poly or turf whenever possible.

It looks like the 6, 7, and 8 are all early. I used the 6's 21.3 44.3 in the last line as the pace. I think the race will run OTE because the 8 ran 21.4 6 races back.

The 1,3,4, and 5 are either too slow or get too far behind.

This leaves me with the 2 who showed an off the pace effort against a 21.4 5 races back and held his position against a 21 43.3 on the grass at HAW.

The 2 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

[chuckg]

AP1.

4 Earlies. 2 has run from 4th and fought for lead at stretch. Keep 2 as OTE. Throw out others.

OTE. 3 and 5 look like they both want to be too close to the front. Looking for a Presser from 5th, 6th or 7th.

Bet 2 and 4 to win.

[khannamark]

On Golden Gate's 6th, May 24th:

This is automatic for me:
I see #3 Romance as a lone early so it is my first choice.
Fr a second horse I would choose the only horse that goes second to first,#2,The Gang and I.

[PeteC]

Scratch 4 and 5....

[PeteC]

The 5 was the reason I picked this race. I typically don't pursue races with so many horses coming from different surfaces but it seemed like a likely OTE scenario with the 2,6 7 and 8 all early, especially the 6 running wild fractions last time. The best OTE runner against today's pace was the 5.

Now, with the 5 out, I am left with the 1 and 3 as OTE contenders. Positionally the 3 will probably be too close to that early group early, so I will take the 1.

[mowens33]

I am going early

6 wire to wire

My picks 6 and 3

[PeteC]

Mike does it again as the fastest of the earlies gets the job done, just nosing out Tim's 2 horse. Well done. Mike I am impressed how you continue to "stay in the zone"...

[PeteC]

Here are the final PP's for tomorrow's race...

[cigar]

MO congrats, you are on fire. My first 20 race cycle is nothing to talk about. Hope the second will show improvement.

Early
Pace 23 - 47
Win: 3 - 6

See attached workup.

[GeorgeC5614]

Golden Gate Race 6 5/24

My projected pace would be the 3's last race 22.9 46.9 1:05.2 (22.4 46.4 1:05.1 in fifths)

I think the 3 will win wire to wire, but there is a chance for the 2 and the 5 to compromise her. Both the 2 and 5 have run up close to a 46.9, but both times were slightly slower first quarters. The 7 finished ahead of the 3 in their tandem race, but the 3 was severely pressured through the first two calls. I don't think the 3 will be pressed as much here. The 1 and 7 also raced in a tandem race where the 1 won against a fast pace. I do not think the pace will be fast enough for the 1 to make up the difference, but she just might.

My win bets will be 3 and 1.

[chuckg]

GG 6

3 is Lone Early. Only has to stay 1L ahead of 6 at 23 47.

OTE. I don't see any Pressers. 5 is only S that gains 1st to 2nd against slow.

Bet 3 and 5 to Win.

[PeteC]

Easy to spot the pacesetter here. The 3 fought and faded against 22.4 last time. Without other e's here, I decided to use line 3 for today's pace 23.2. Against this slow pace there are still no others that like to go for the lead early, so I will take the 3 to win.

[Capcondo]

GG #6:

I'm going to use the last line on the 3 as the pace at 5.5 furlongs; 22.4 46.4 58.4. I just don't think the 3 can beat these that can run against a 22.0 and make a move in the race. Mt contenders are the 1 and the 7. I think the 7 will be closer than the 1 and should turn the tables on the tandem 2 back.

The 7 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

[mowens33]

The 3 will set the pace, 7 and 5 should be in decent press position.

My pick 7 and 5

[The Pook]

Sunday
I see the opening quarter around 22.3. I see the 3 wiring the field.
3 for the win.

Pook

[PeteC]

Mowens hits it again, along with ChuckG... Great job guys!