MatchUp Challenge Contest Standings

[The Pook]

We had one washout and with one regular (Tim) out of town there were still 7 participants. Not a bad start. Lots of hits and discussion and well thought out Matchup thinking.
Everybody is underwater. But mowens33 and Bill V. are at the shallow end.

[The Pook]

Seven Furlongs and Capcondo have zoomed into positive territory after a great performance on the weekend. Seven F was 2/2 and Tim got the nice price from Sundays race at Oaklawn also which was a difficult one. Nice input and thinking from everyone. We will keep it going next weekend....

Pook

[The Pook]

Not much change this week. PeteC was the only one to actually profit. Cigar also pegged the winner though. So with the profit PeteC has managed to get himself up off a tie at the bottom. Seven Furlongs remains at the top.

[The Pook]

Mowens33 hit the weekend double and raceman5 opened up his contributions with the big price on Sunday. Well done once again. So with that opening the raceman vaults to the top and the Pook remains at the bottom sucking the old hind tit. We now have 4 matchers out of 10 in positive territory. We are all good handicappers though (us 10 matchers so far) and I think given time we will all be in the black.

Pook

[The Pook]

PeteC sweeps the weekend with singles. Multiple winners over both days. The results are starting to smooth out with Raceman5 still on top and Mowens33 keeping his impressive positive ROI going with the most races played.

[The Pook]

Multiple winners this weekend. 2 low prices. Pete and Capcondo singled the decent payoff of the first leg which launched them to the top of the overall.

[KBROD]

sorry, did not know how to post new thread...aqueduct sunday r1-2 dds....1,5/5

[mowens33]

sorry, did not know how to post new thread...aqueduct sunday r1-2 dds....1,5/5

KB, nice call

Mike

[The Pook]

KBROD, Mowens, and Raceman had the stones and so reaped the benefits, of betting against SB on Saturday.
Many winners on Sunday including Mowens33 (Mike) who smacked his own weekend double! Great work folks. I'm including hits in the computations to give another perspective on how everybody is performing which is quite well I think. Generally the bottom of the list is populated by low sample counts that haven't had time to get going. As a group there are some nice numbers up there.

Pook

[Mark]

http://www.horsecollaborative.com/worlds-top-racehorse-injured-saved-by-jockey/

[The Pook]

Everybody's hearts sank when we saw SB pull up. Sure a few of us made money on the situation but we wouldn't want injury to horse or rider to get it. I am glad that Mike Smith is as professional as he is and that SB will fight another day. These horses sometimes give their lives for our entertainment and not a day goes by that I am not thankful for them and all their connections for what they do.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

That black and white photo of Mike Smith is a classic. Clearly an emotional racing event, for a whole host of opposite reasons. Here's hoping Shared Belief recovers fully and continues his amazing career. Mike Smith = clearly a class act.38825
Ted

[mowens33]

Pook, Ted, I agree 100%

Horse Racing needs horses like Shared Belief to be on the race track!

Mike

[The Pook]

Ted and Mike hit the nice price on Saturday which shakes up the leaderboard somewhat. There were multiple winners on Sunday including Mike (Mowens33) again who now rightly so finds himself at the top. Mike has the highest participation rate AND the highest ROI after 2 months. Not too shabby!

Ted with his winner on Saturday (showed us how certain tools in RDSS like tote-Xray) can nudge you in the right direction. This helped him to score big and rocket out of the basement.

We now have 7 out of 15 in positive territory after 2 months. Some players have become somewhat dormant though it is early days. There is also quite a range of experience matching here (I'm assuming because I don't know most of your histories) but new folks to the method shouldn't feel discouraged in any way. Guys like PeteC and Tim(Capcondo) and others are long time matchers and it shows. Bill Lyster has a lot of experience too and I don't expect him to remain subzero for too long.

I've decided to (asterisk) highlight those that haven't played at least 50% of the time. Randomness can play a big part when you've only played a few so I just wanted to flag as we go from here on as a reminder. To be considered seriously:D in year end standings you need the 50%. However there is still plenty of time.

Overall I'm having fun with this and I hope everyone else is too. If nothing else it is showing those who are interested in what we do, what we can do in real time with real results good or bad. This is a little like spot playing as recommended by Mr. Bradshaw as the approach to take if you want to profit. The races selected are vetted out to a certain degree as to their Matchup quality but obviously they aren't all matchers cup of tea either. Entertainment value is also considered and the challenge aspect too. Sort of like "here....matchup this race!"

Feel free to comment on the above and hopefully confirm that you players find this endeavour worthwhile.

Derby weekend is next. Tim, for one, can't wait.

Pook

[PeteC]

Pook, thanks so much for putting this together. You've committed to doing a lot of leg work on this for all of our benefit and that is much appreciated.

As far as participation, I think it's an interesting question. I know for myself each week I am going through a decision process not only about the race(s) but also whether or not to enter a contest pick(s).

First, I decide if I have a feel for the race and can confidently narrow it to 1 or 2 horses. Then I try to project what the odds might be and decide if it makes sense ROI-wise to make a pick for the contest. Since I may be offline at or near post time this is mostly a projection based only on ML odds and a feel for what the final odds might be. There's also the consideration of needing to stay at the 50% level too so I may enter contest picks even though I wouldn't bet them because of odds.

I wonder if this is similar to how others are doing it. If ROI is the goal and you can be online near post time it would make sense to wait as long as possible before deciding to make a pick.

I also considered the idea of just matching and if I can narrow it to 1 or 2 horses, make my picks and let the ROI chips fall where they may. Mike seems to be doing just fine not worrying about odds. It helps when you are as sharp as he is at hitting those big prices!!

Anyway, just some thoughts. I wonder how others are approaching it...

Thanks again,

Pete

[mowens33]

My approach is too do the best I can to match-up what’s in front of me (I practice during the week with DRF race of the day free PP). My main focus is to match and get my contenders, which the majority of the time will put you on the favorite. Then I will look at the other contender (that matches today's predicted pace) and look for the horse that will give me the best bag for my buck.

That’s the beauty of the Sartin Method of betting two horses to win, even if I’m betting the favorite (which comes in about ~35% of the time), I can make money when my higher price horse comes in. But again I will go with a BOM and a BOM and sometimes a BOM and a BOM, with another BOM if the opportunity presents itself. Derby time is a great time to look for these opportunities!

So I’m having fun matching, with the hope that it will make me a more disciplined Handicapper!!

Unfortunately for me discipline is still a work in process!!! But working these races with you guys is a giant step in the right direction to becoming a 2 percenter!!!!

So let’s keep matching and learning.

Thanks, Gent’s

Mike

[The Pook]

So Mike you mean the 2 percent that supposedly consistently wins? Surely you aren't aiming for a 2% ROI. If my aim was (2% ROI) and that was all I could realistically expect I would throw in the towel.

Pook

[mowens33]

Pook my Man, I know your smart enough to figure that one out!

Keep posting and capping, you and Pete are doing a fantastic job!!

Mike

[The Pook]

Mike, just fooling with ya....keep up the good work.

Pook

[KBROD]

love this site......mike if its not to much to ask..whats your feed on the derby...im dying to get the pps and posts soon....

[mowens33]

KB, this is what I have, I should get an update on this soon.

[mowens33]

Derby PP

[Ted Craven]

Shouldn't the last few posts with Oaks and Derby PPs be in their own separate, new Threads. Please let me know if I can reorganize anything!

Ted

[The Pook]

Shouldn't the last few posts with Oaks and Derby PPs be in their own separate, new Threads. Please let me know if I can reorganize anything!

Ted

You probably should make those new threads Ted if you can. Otherwise some folks won't know there here. One for the Oaks. One for the Derby. Tim may be including one or both of those in the Challenge thread but he would do that separately in a day or so.

Thanks
Pook

[Capcondo]

Thought I would put the Derby in the challenge but not the Oaks since the races in the challenge are run on Saturday and Sunday.

I'll post the Derby tomorrow.

Tim

[Ted Craven]

I moved the Kentucky Oaks PPs to its own >> Thread (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10125). <<

When Tim (Capcondo) opens the Derby Matchup Challenge for Saturday, I can move the above PPs there for that race too.

Ted

[The Pook]

Thanks to Tim for a great weekend of races. I played all 4 along with my regular racing and by Saturday night my brain was pretty much fried. A good fry though.

Pook

[The Pook]

Weekend Hits

[The Pook]

Current Standings

[The Pook]

Welcome to newcomers Hoof 11 and chuckg who both performed quite well over the weekend. Beware when playing Woodbine against Hoof 11. It is the only track he plays and he is an expert at it.

Congrats also to cigar and Bill Lyster who hit the only decent price over two days.

I tried to pick races which might give us some decent non-favourites but the Woodbine crowd at this time seems to be right on it. Yesterdays 13 horse field produced a 2-1 crowd choice! Chalks getting up my nose again. Yes its chalk folks....don't get any ideas.

Pook

[The Pook]

Overall Standings

[The Pook]

Weekend Hits

[The Pook]

Weekend Plays
Putting these up now so that players can check to make sure that I have logged their action correctly.

Pook

[The Pook]

Thanks Mike for the weekends races. We might be in for a treat this year with a TC horse in our midst. We could use one but how many times has a strong looking horse fizzled in the Belmont since 1979? I think it takes more than two hands to count.

In the Belmont in three weeks I personally want to cheer on AP and not try to match against him. To bet to win on him will be useless. Looks like I will be doing the weekends races at that time so to make matching that particular race more interesting I was thinking of introducing $2 Exactor betting so we could consider others to go with AP. Singles, boxes, wheels, whatever. Or skip the Belmont?

Let me know what you think.

I am looking forward to Bill Lysters' assessment of the Belmonts marathon distance. He is always a good read.

Pook

[The Pook]

Overall

[The Pook]

Weekend Hits

[The Pook]

Weekend Plays

[mowens33]

Thanks Mike for the weekends races. We might be in for a treat this year with a TC horse in our midst. We could use one but how many times has a strong looking horse fizzled in the Belmont since 1979? I think it takes more than two hands to count.

In the Belmont in three weeks I personally want to cheer on AP and not try to match against him. To bet to win on him will be useless. Looks like I will be doing the weekends races at that time so to make matching that particular race more interesting I was thinking of introducing $2 Exactor betting so we could consider others to go with AP. Singles, boxes, wheels, whatever. Or skip the Belmont?

Let me know what you think.

I am looking forward to Bill Lysters' assessment of the Belmonts marathon distance. He is always a good read.

Pook
Pook, sounds like a good idea to me since that’s what I typically do with the match up races.

That’s why not getting that bet in on the 5th at Woodbine hurt. Along with a win bet I typically play the perfecta ($75.20) in units (4-3-2-1) and play a 3x4x5 (sometimes more on the end) trifecta ($287).

But it all comes out in the wash! There were plenty of times I missed a bet and my horses were way down the track. They don’t hurt at all !!!!

Pook, your right Bill is always a great read on the big races!

Mike

[The Pook]

Muchas gracias Mister Pete for the races once again. Two reasonable payers again too.
If you smell smoke you gotta know what it is...smell it?....come on surely you've smelled it.....its....none other than The Mow Man (mowens33) lighting it up, on fire, in the zone....whatever you want to call it, sweeping another weekend and leaving the rest of us in the dust bin. Congrats my man and of course congrats to our other more recent member chuckg who also had Sundays race.
We are about one third through this thing so there is still lots of time for results to gain and lose, slip and slide, twist and shake. Next week Capcondo will host the weekend with I'm sure a couple of gems from somewhere.
Then there will be Belmont week. Watch this forum next Sunday night for a special betting event for The Belmont only. The Challenge will celebrate in its own way this new attempt at a Triple Crown. You will have the opportunity for potential redemption or self destruction. All in one race. Sharpen your pencils.

Have a good week, and Capcondo weekend,
Pook

[The Pook]

Overall

[The Pook]

Weekend Plays

[The Pook]

Weekend Hits

[The Pook]

May 30/31 Overall

Great choices of races Tim. Especially the lone early race on Sunday at PRX. It almost connected. Welcome to Wilbur and Lonespeed who joined us on the weekend. And congrats to Kbrod, our one lonely winner.

[The Pook]

May 30/31 Hits

[The Pook]

May 30/31 Plays

[The Pook]

June 6 Overall

[The Pook]

June 6 Hits

[The Pook]

June 6 Plays

[The Pook]

June 13/14 Overall

Well that was quite a matching exercise from Mike this weekend. From Matchup 101 on Saturday to a Matchup Master class on Sunday. I couldn't figure out Sundays race and so came up with nothing. Hoof almost pulled it off though because it looked like the $135 winner was his third choice. That would have set him up for months.

Have a good week,
Pook

[The Pook]

June 13/14 Hits

[The Pook]

June 13/14 Plays

[The Pook]

Give the man a Ceeeegar!!! Cigar pulls off the only weekend win...way to go bud.

Pook
June 20/21 Overall

[The Pook]

June 20/21 Hits

[The Pook]

June 20/21 Plays

[The Pook]

July 7 Overall

We had two players who hit the Hat Trick this time. Well done to Gandalf and Mowens. Numerous other hits also. A little chalky all weekend like Tim said but it is hard to anticipate that. Thanks for the races Tim!

Pook

[The Pook]

July 7 Hits

[The Pook]

July 7 Plays

[The Pook]

July 11/12 Overall

Raceman5 vaults himself atop the standings one play short of officialdom. Cigar continues his march into the black which is inspiring to see because as we all know this game can be streaky. To win you have to know how to lose (without becoming unhinged).

Pook

[The Pook]

July 11/12 Hits

[The Pook]

July 11/12 Plays

[The Pook]

July 18/19 Overall

Raceman5 affirms his place at the top and becomes official again having played at least 50%. Cigar moves into black territory. They were the stories of the weekend, both getting the highest price so far. This is the second week in a row that they pulled down choice payoffs. Raceman5 also doubled up this weekend!

Interesting to note that Raceman matches OLD SCHOOL using nothing but the racing form like Jim used to do. He probably scoffs in the general direction of mere software users. Whereas Cigar is an RDSS man which is cool too. You can get there either way.

Pook

[The Pook]

July 18/19 Hits

[The Pook]

July 18/19 Plays

[The Pook]

July 25/26 Overall

Thanks for all the great matching races Pete. There were 21 individual entries for 3 posted races. Great participation! Lots of hits too including 2 apiece for Raceman5, Mowens33, and KBROD, who are the most consistent Matchers so far.

Just a friendly reminder-
An entry with zero support documentation is not an entry!
If you haven't the time then just pass the race. It is not fair to those who take the time to share their thoughts. This way we hopefully all learn and raise our games collectively over time. In the end the cream will still be at the top but others interested in this aspect of capping may learn a thing or two. Matching is so very difficult, but wonderfully challenging!

Pook

[The Pook]

July 25/26 Hits

[The Pook]

July 25/26 Plays

[The Pook]

Aug 1/2 Overall

A low action, low price weekend. To clean things up a bit there are shown only the 15 players who have played in the past 2 months.

Pook

[The Pook]

Aug 1/2 Hits

[The Pook]

Aug 1/2 Plays

[The Pook]

Aug 8/9 Overall

One great exciting race on the weekend! Congratulations to the three players that nabbed it....Raceman, Gandalf, and Capcondo.

We are over half way through this contest even if it goes right til the end of December. I think we will end it in November though and then look at suggestions for setting up a real contest with cash before January.

Can the Raceman be caught? He has quite a lead up front and there seems to be no stopping him. mmmmmm....kind of reminds me of Liam's Map in the Whitney.:D

Pook

[The Pook]

Aug 8/9 Hits

[The Pook]

Aug 8/9 Plays

[The Pook]

Aug 22/23 Overall

Thanks for the races Pete. One winner this week...KBROD.

Pook

[The Pook]

Aug 22/23 Hits

[The Pook]

Aug 22/23 Plays

[The Pook]

Aug 29/30 Overall

KBrod is the lone winner again this week. This time with a nice payoff. Not much play these days. Interest seems to be waning. Could be holidays?

Pook

[The Pook]

Aug 29/30 Hits

[The Pook]

Aug 29/30 Plays

[The Pook]

Sept 5/6 Overall

And then there were seven. The magnificent seven! Seven that have played 50% minimum with less than 3 months to go. 2 in the black and 5 in the red. These folks have played regularly and in spite of most not being where they want to be, have hung in there. That I know from experience at this game is the biggest part of succeeding. Persistence and patience man.

Right now there is really only the magnificent one. Raceman's performance to date over 6 months is as most would agree .....magnificent. An 84% ROI at a 64% hit rate playing two horses over six months. This is not a weekend contest or seminar. This is 6 months of putting your opinion into the public realm on live events. Choosing the races that suit you and still maintain a minimum participation level. He doesn't show us too much about what he does but he's been doing it for years. He was on here when RichieP was teaching nearly ten years ago? Good for him.

Like most of us he admits he is fatigued. His performance inspires me. Still nearly 3 months left folks. Be inspired. There is time.

Pook

[The Pook]

Sept 12/13 Overall

Raceman, Capcondo, and Cigar were the winners.

[The Pook]

Sept 26/27 Overall

Thanks for the races Tim. Raceman was the only winner once again! He solidifies his place at the top. Pook solidifies his sub-basement placing.

Pook

[The Pook]

Oct 3 Overall

Two winners of cigars weekend offerings. KBROD and Pook.

[The Pook]

Oct 10 Overall

Many winners. George had the biggest price. Nobody had the bustout winners but George was oh so close to the biggest at Zia.

[The Pook]

Oct 18

Mike hits two home runs. Pete hits the third. Both are movin on up.

Pook

[The Pook]

Oct 25

[The Pook]

Oct 31

Thanks for the Breeders Cup Day Tim. You were going for prices and the races all had potential but only one was unchalky and nobody had it. Most of us are sort of swinging for the fences at this point trying to catch Raceman. Only one winner this weekend and that was George in the classic.

Pook

[The Pook]

Nov 7

Multiple winners this weekend.

[The Pook]

Nov 14

One low-ass winner. Capcondo clicked in with a $3.40 return.

There are two weekends left with Raceman looking pretty solid as the 2015 Matchup Champ. I ran some figures and found that with Raceman just staying still over the last two weeks the rest of us would need between $95 and $150 in returns to catch. Not likely.

Pook

[The Pook]

Nov 21

One weekend left. As it stands mowens33 is poised to take the MC with a barely positive 4.6% return. Raceman Bob has been spoiling a few entries lately with a lack of documentation. If he gets to the 50% minimum on the coming weekend though he is a shoe-in for 2015 Matchup Champ. He will need at least two entries to pull it off. Will have to see what Pete puts up.

A few close good payoffs this past week but only Cigar and Pook had the $6.30 winner.

Stay thirsty my friends.

Pook

[The Pook]

Nov 29

Raceman does it! Finishes with a 42.3% ROI. Wow! Squeaked in with the minimum amount of eligible entries and secured his top spot easily. Congratulations to Bob The Raceman....(Matchman!)

Thanks everyone. Had fun. Watch for a new thread in mid January regarding the 2016 Match for Ca$h winter/spring meet starting Saturday January 30th!

Happy Holidays
Pook
(Raceman check your PM's. I sent you one)

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations Bob (Raceman)! You have the magic :) It was a long contest and shed many players along the way (including me). Thanks Pook for organizing it for us all - hopefully it provided some good lessons in how to work the Matchup approach.

Ted

[raceman5]

Ted. what did i win? A Match up cap, 4 days in Vegas all expenses paid, T- shirt, 1 yr free RDSS software? Just kidding LOL.

Bob

[Ted Craven]

Bob, looks like you won that spiffy new avatar image under your raceman name :):). This was Pook's Contest this year, and I think the glory was the main prize - though if you're ever at Woodbine, I think he and I will buy you lunch!

Actually, I am happy to send you a RDSS ballcap (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=82308&postcount=1), though when you wear it, it may tend to give you thoughts of wanting to use RDSS ... ;)

Seriously - well done, congratulations!

Ted

[mowens33]

Raceman, Love the avatar! Well deserved!!

Mike

[raceman5]

Mike, it was all Pooks idea.

[mowens33]

Pook dose have a good idea know and then!

Pook thanks for keeping us on track!!

It was fun!!!

Mike