Getting consumed by readouts

[shoeless]

Do any of you feel you are getting too wrapped up in the readouts instead
of analyzing the PP'S of the horses first?

[shoeless]

I should have said instead


When picking out pace lines for horses to put in the computer do you
first analyze the PP'S of the horses or do you just start picking the lines.

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

I look at the + lines to see how and why it runs + races. I also see what goes wrong with 0 lines on the early late graph.
I also pay attention to the race conditions. I will pick a line differently based on the conditions of the race. Bill L's recent post about NW2L
is a good lesson. I usually agree with the auto selected best of last 3
RDSS2 suggest but I change the lines too.

Nothing is all or nothing :)

However once I select pace lines I rely fully on the readouts.
I am the worst match up guy . Even though Jim Bradshaw himself said I was good at it, I still think I suck, so I stay with RDSS or Validator 4 readouts
to handicap

GS
Bill

[shoeless]

Hi Bill,

Thanks for the reply and something to think about, I feel lately that I
haven't been paying enough attention to the PP'S before I start picking
lines.

I doubt very seriously that you suck at the match up as you seem well
versed on all aspects of the methodology.

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Hey Jeff

You can always post a problem race here. Its so much easier for me to work
here than with emails. Other can also help you get a feeling for how we use
RDSS.

Bill

[Peteman]

Hi Jeff,
I will highlight a line or two that I think represents all the horses best.
Then go back and put them in the program.
And rely on the ratings.But also look at the pp's again,to find a
additional thing that I like about the horse like,trainer info.ESP matchup
like Layoff in the money PCT.2nd or 3rd off layoff,is this bum trainers
only good horse,jockey switch,trainer pct with drops ect.Info that supports
a strong corollary from my models. if I can find any!As I am mainly a exacta player.

Bill your working detail of all these old and new programs is amazing.
Ok here is the rub,do you think modeling third fraction or getting it from
result charts might be better,as a way to toss out horses.trying
to figure best way to employ it.thanks again for the site

[shoeless]

Hi Peteman,


Thanks for the reply as well.

I can attest to Bill being a master of the old programs as I have met
him several times working his magic.The last time at Laurel he hit 5
races in a row using Validator and was working the races as they were
approaching post time.


Jeff

[Bill V.]

Bill your working detail of all these old and new programs is amazing.
Ok here is the rub,do you think modeling third fraction or getting it from
result charts might be better,as a way to toss out horses.trying
to figure best way to employ it.thanks again for the site

Modeling the 3rd fraction ? I can't see how it could hurt.
I would not use result charts - been there did that -
I would use the adjusted time of the,winning horse from the
paceline you used. I would also separate by total energy.
high, ave or low. I would only model the 3rd fraction energy not raw fps
Then I would look for parameters like for low total energy horses I may except
a 30.10 3rd fraction as my low but for a high total energy horses I would toss
a 30.10 3rd fraction

Bill

[Peteman]

Thanks for the input Bill,and it has to be faster than going over
old results charts and crunching fps numbers,and it would make it easier
to be able to relate the third fraction to the winners other rankings.
Pete