MC July 25/26 by PeteC

[The Pook]

Go Pete.

[cigar]

I am playing in the Woodbine/Saratoga contest at Woodbine on Sunday. Anyone plays Saratoga regularly? Any insight will be greatly appreciated. Hey Pete, you can help me out by select a race on Sunday for the Matchup contest from WO/SAR, just kidding but it will help.

[PeteC]

I am playing in the Woodbine/Saratoga contest at Woodbine on Sunday. Anyone plays Saratoga regularly? Any insight will be greatly appreciated. Hey Pete, you can help me out by select a race on Sunday for the Matchup contest from WO/SAR, just kidding but it will help.

I'll do my best....Good luck in the contest...

[PeteC]

The first race of the weekend...the 6th from Prairie Meadows. I may have another race for Saturday as well, but want to check the morning line first...

[raceman5]

I like the 2 and 3 they both look like they can handle the hot pace which should be 22 and change and 45 and change

Bob

[PeteC]

Let's also take a shot at the 7th race at Del Mar Saturday too..

[raceman5]

Tough race. Going to go with the tandem race of June25 SA Race 6.

3-9

Bob

[delmarscott2004]

DelMar 07.26.15...........2nd. race

2--10--11

Scott

[The Pook]

DelMar 07.26.15...........2nd. race

2--10--11

Scott

Welcome to the Challenge!
Scott there are a couple of things with your entry.

-You should include a few words regarding your Matchup thinking.
-You wrote 2nd race. It is the 7th race at DelMar.
-It is only one or two horses to win.

Can't really accept it as is. Hopefully you see this before post time and correct.
See the rules post near the top of the contest forum.

Pook

[The Pook]

Saturday PRM #6

I have the 1 and 2 as the only Earlies in the race. The 2 is also an OTE. My contenders are 1,2 3,6. The 1 is too slow. The 2 and 3 will be better positioned than the 6 at a 22.2 quarter.

2,3

[The Pook]

Saturday DMR #7

Down to the 1,5,9,14. The 14 is the pacesetter in 23 or so. Could wire but I think is too slow overall with slow final fractions and final times so will go OTE. The 14 is also OTE which is a concern but I will still throw out. For me the 5 and 9 are better positioned for the win.

The only way I could think to deal with the NZ and European horses was with their best competitive final time of 137.1 which looks to be not good enough.

5,9

[PeteC]

#3 is the early horse in this race and I used line 2 for today’s pace since there are no other earlies to fight with it like last time (47.4 112.3). Right away I have a good feeling about this horse given the lone E status and the fighting last time but let’s go through the field…

#1 (Sus) Line 3 was against a similar pace and it closed from the back to be a close second (8-7-6-2)
#4 Foreign horse who looks like it runs sustained
#5 (Pre) Comes in from Indiana but in line 9 it raced at Santa Anita against a solid pace but didn’t make much of an impact. (6-7-6-4)
#6 (P/S) Has won twice against today’s pace or faster (lines 2 and 7).
#7 (P/S) Finished close against a 48 pace in line 6.
#8 Another mystery foreign horse, looks more like a presser.
#9 (Sus) Has won or finished very close multiple times against faster paces.
#10 (Sus) Won against a faster pace in line 3 from way back.
#11 (Pre) Won against today’s pace or faster in lines 4, 6 and 7.
#12 (Sus) Won good turf route against a very fast pace from way out of it (line 7).

There are a number of contenders that are capable of winning this race but I like the 3 given the lone early set-up and the fast fighting last time….

[PeteC]

#1 is the early in this race and I used the POR from its last line (22.1 45.2)….Let’s see how it stacks up against the rest of the field.

#2 (Pre) Sharp horse. Faced today’s pace in line 2 where it moved 4-3-2-1.
#3 (Pre) Last two sprints were sharp. Faced today’s pace or even a tad faster in both of those and ran very well.
#4 Never faced today’s pace
#5 (Sus) Won against today’s pace in line two coming from waaaay out of it 6-6-5-1
#6 (Sus) Has won twice against a similar pace or faster (lines 3,7). Its moves have been 5-3-1-1 and 5-5-4-1.
#7 Nothing to speak of against today’s pace.

I feel the race will go OTE, meaning the 1 will not win. I notice the stretch call times for the horse (58 and change) in it’s good races. I then see the 3 sitting just off of that on and see how it moves to the lead in 57.3’s in lines 2 and 3. I don’t think that 1 can hold off the 3. The 2 should be a little behind the 3 and the sustained will be too far back to close ground on the 3. I like the 3 to win.

[delmarscott2004]

DelMar 07.26.15...........2nd. race

2--10--11

Scott

Reworking the 7th as suggested as soon as I return home

Thanks Pook

[Capcondo]

Prairie Meadows:

Thanks for putting this race up Pete. I look at PM with some regularity.

The 1 looks like the lead horse. He's run 22.1. I'll project the 1st 2 fractions as his last race; 22.1 45.2
The 3 ran a bad route last out. The 2 sprints before that were against very fast fractions. He likes to sit 3rd but could move up to second based on the 22.0 he ran against the second and third race back. He might make the 1 quit and get the lead.

The 4 and the 6 will be coming at the end. The 4 is a particularly scary horse late.

The 7 and 2 aren't fast enough.

Before I talk myself off the 3, I am going to make him my choice.

The 3 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

[Ted Craven]

Earlies: 1-2-3*-7 Probable Pace is #1 last = 22.2 45.5 58 (#3 can also close from 3rd)
OTE: 3-4-5-6

Too much early pressure for #1 to hold, plus #3 and #4 'see' (match) his 2nd call times and 'raise' (outrun ;)) him at the Stretch (sub 58).

#3 can't get respect from the betting public, and spent most of its time running and losing (once beating) 3K and 4K claimers,which is how it got into the last 2 Starter allowance races. Not today, versus this crowd.

Race runs OTE. #2 must be getting dazed and confused as to which barn he lives in, having been claimed 5 times this year. Plus his competition is in general, inferior to the #4 and #6.

Thus: #4 and #6 are my picks. (Plus, the BL/BL says so ...)


39176

39177

[PeteC]

At Del Mar, #2 is a late scratch....

[Capcondo]

Del Mar:

Given how I'm doing in the contest, I'm going to pass a race with two foreign horses who were worked until they bled and are first time lasix.

GL

Tim

[gandalf380]

using #1 last time as probable pace of the race. Looks to me that there are three speed horses. The #1 looks like the best of the speed but he should be softened up by a pace duel. #4 looks like a strong closer. #2 can sit just off the pace and get first jump on the #4. He also has won previously after sitting 4th early.

Win: #2 Celtic Drama
#4 Happy Toes

[mowens33]

Pm6

[KBROD]

pr med.......win......1-2................del mar.....win.....3,4

[gandalf380]

#3 was looking like the sole speed until #14 drew into the race. I am still using the #3 as the pace setter but may be compromised. Thus, I now think a horse will win coming off the pace.

Win: #9 Sweet as a Rose
#10 Show Stealer

[lone speed]

Del Mar

Turf Race....going other than early but not impressed with the pacelines available from most entrants: thus going with the two foreign shippers...

#8 Hiking and #4 Queenofthepalace...

good skills

[mowens33]

Del Mar 7

Sorry didn't get a chance to wright this one up but I see a fairly fast pace set by the 3 with the 11 in press position.

my picks 3 and 11

[Ted Craven]

DMR Race 7

Agree with Charlie re the Early #3 and #14 cancelling each other - #3 will fight against early fractions of #14 22.8 45.6 which it just cannot sustain.

Thus OTE: #1 #6 #9 #10. The #9 ran positionally closer to a faster pace than the #6 or #10, but #9 technically is still finding its level post-maiden (no wins against winners yet). The #1 is another great closer with final times which beat all the other OTEs. But it has not shown it can win first out after such a long layoff (332 days). I would not overlook it in the Exacta/Tri. #10 and #9 both have no post-maiden wins, but #9 is faster (closes better against a faster pace).

Note: I have had good luck using the TrackMaster SRs to measure foreign horses against the same ratings for the domestic ones. In this race, the #4 and #8 have no recent SRs to match the other mentioned contenders. So no worry here.

Thus, my picks: #6 and #9 both.

Good luck.

Ted

[PeteC]

Lots of winners on these two.....

[PeteC]

This one's for you Cigar...

[The Pook]

pr med.......win......1-2................del mar.....win.....3,4
Lots of good matching going on today.

KBROD congratulations it looks like you hit both but we have no idea how your matching got you there. I will accept your entry this time since you have been with us for a while. Mostly you are just dropping numbers on us though and that is not what this is all about. So from here on we need your thoughts (something to show process) or I can't accept your entry. People read this stuff and learn from it. I read other posts and when someone hits in particular it is good to read why. I know there is a lot of repitition but occasionally there are little gems that help and give insight.

Refer to the rules post in the contest forum.

Pook

[cigar]

Thanks Pete, my brain is fried from capping two cards and looking for value (5-1 and up). Tournament play is so different from everyday play. I am so use to betting two horses and today is one horse bet. I need a few bombs.

[The Pook]

Good luck in the Woodbine/Saratoga contest today Cigar. You are on a roll lately so do the Matchup crowd proud! We are expecting big things from you!:p.......just kidding man.....just have FUN!

Pook

[KBROD]

sorry pook...yeh..i forgot about this, i was all tied up with toga all day...for now on i will post why and how thx

[KBROD]

it was one of my best days at toga hitting late pic 4....if u can look at monster mash last race...it was a wierd ride and just after the finish he took off like a shot...so i knew he was right for this 7f with a lot of pace

[The Pook]

Sunday WO #3

Expect a 24.8/49.9. To run OTE. Got it down to the 1,4,5 of which I think the 1 and 5 will have advantage in position.

1,5

[PeteC]

Let’s use the tandem race for today’s pace (49.4 114.1). Looking for an OTE winner.

#1 Set the pace in the tandem before fading once headed. This one is not usually on the lead and its only win was from second position against a 48…Contender
#2 Won against today’s pace in line 7 and was beaten by the 1 in line 6. Contender
#3 Only wins/close finishes are against slower…OUT
#4 Tandem best finisher won against a faster pace here in line 3. Contender
#5 Slow, out
#6 Slower, out
#7 Has won against similar or faster pace twice (lines 2 and 5) and has a great name :) …Contender
#* Has a couple of good races against the pace but was beaten badly in the tandem which I can’t overlook…OUT

The 1 and 4 should be up on or close to the pace like last time waiting to get passed by the 2 or 7. The 7 seems more reliable to me against today’s pace so I will go with the 7.

[KBROD]

Wb race 3. Win 3-7....both to me look the same running style..pace looks quick up front....both are 2nd - 3rd off layoff, top trainers,i should get the 6/1...and the 7/2 on the 6 or better...back class 3-7.....styles fit the race

[gandalf380]

using pace scenario of 48 and 112.8

none of these horses really like the lead but someone (probably #5) has to go to the front. That horse will have a big target on his back and probably will quit as soon as he is challenged.

Win: #1 Best Available
#7 Pete's Pita

[PeteC]

The 4 gets it done.....

[cigar]

Good luck in the Woodbine/Saratoga contest today Cigar. You are on a roll lately so do the Matchup crowd proud! We are expecting big things from you!:p.......just kidding man.....just have FUN!

Pook

Update: there was over 200 entered, it was a great day. However for myself it was disappointment. I make not excuse, my capping was off period!

My first mistake made, I capped base on ODDS not finding the logical winner. Looking for high price payout, strategy did not pay off (went 1/10). That hurts both pride and ego lol. It was a great day and I had fun, look forward for the next one.

Pook and Pete that for the kind words.

[mowens33]

Cigar, glad you had some fun; contest wagering has a lot of different strategies. With that many contestants normally like you did I swing for the fences (especially early), and if I hit a few good paying horses (and if is the key word) early you can settle in to your normal mode and watch the score board to see if you need to get more aggressive.
It’s a tough nut to crack!!
Mike