MC Aug 29/30 by Capcondo

[The Pook]

Tim

[Capcondo]

I'm a bit behind schedule here. I'll have something this afternoon for tomorrow.

Tim

[Capcondo]

Here's a field of 10 routing at Parx. Post time is 3:10 ET. The race appears to have some contested early speed with a horse whose won 3 in a row (I believe the Hat mentioned that at one time). I'll try to find another race for Sat or Sun as well.

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Tim

[Capcondo]

Post time is 7:02 ET. I won't be home to post scratches. If someone could do that, I'd appreciate it. This is a route on the turf with fairly definable early speed. Weather doesn't appear to be a factor.

39260

Tim

[Capcondo]

Parx #6: I wanted to go with the 10 but there is a fair amount of speed in this race with the 4 and 5 and the 10 can't fight. The 10's fractions at DEL 3 back are 23.1 46.2 1:11.1. So, I'm looking for a sustained horse that can handle fast fractions and show good internal fractions. This brings me to the 3. This horse used to sprint well against good fractions and his race 2 back has great internal fractions even though the first fraction was slow.

The 3 is my choice to win the race at PARX.

CBY race #4:

The speed in this race is the 6 and 7. The 6 handled a 23.1 46.4 1:11.1 four races back. The 7 can handle those fractions. I think the race will go OTE with a sutained horse winning the race. My 2 contenders are the 1 and the 5. The 5 has shown superior power moves and strong internal fractions both at CBY and at Turf Paradise.

The 5 is my choice to with the race in the 4th at CBY

Tim

[The Pook]

CBY Race 4

Tough race Tim. I agree the speed is the 6 and 7. I projected a 23.2 quarter. The 6 can run from off too so I like him. But I also like the 11 from off. I'm using the 7.5 turf distance which is close to the 8.3. I think they are both around 2 turns.

So I will go 6,11.

Pook

[The Pook]

PRX Race 6

Lot of speed. I'm thinking a 23.4 quarter. You are right Tim, The Hat would disregard a horse going for four in a row like the 1. He doesn't seem able to handle the projected anyway. I don't think the 3 will handle the pace either. I ended with the 5,6,7, 9 and 10 as contenders. 10 should get smoked by the 5 and I don't see the 5 staying. The 7 has lost many tandems against these. Leaves 6 and 9 OTE.

6,9

Pook

[The Pook]

By the same token as the race above with a horse having three or more wins in a row, he should be disregarded........American Pharaoh in the Travers should be disregarded? Dare I. Ted showed in another post that AP isn't atop the BLBL. Even the great Secretariat lost occasionally. Could Texas Red be AP's Onion? Maybe worth a bet.

Pook

[The Pook]

PRX Race 6

9 scratched

[PeteC]

Nice race with 3 matching E's Tim. I'm on board with you guys looking OTE and I narrowed it initially to 1,3 and 6. The 3 and 6 seem more comfortable being further back in the pack early than the 1 which I'm looking for here. Between those two I'm more comfortable with the 6 who has run those races at PRX. I'll take the 6.

[KBROD]

parx..inside speed should control here..and their numbers show.....win.....#1 @ #4

[KBROD]

cby..i see the #2 pounce the speed in stretch..has top late numbers.....win 2

[The Pook]

Nice matchin Kbrod!

[The Pook]

Canterbury Race 4

6 Scratched

[Capcondo]

Congrats to KBROD on a great hit at PARX. Knowing when to get on fighters and when not to is a talent I have not yet acquired. On the positive side, both races paid very well. Here are the charts:

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See you next week

Tim

[The Pook]

Of the three Earlies I saw the 4 as the slowest and least likely to survive. He was one of my first tosses. I know he is a fighter but I couldn't see how you would be on him. KBrod did.

Pook