Poll

[Procefus]

Sartin Methodology 2 Horse Win Betting and Ave Mutual per 20 Race Cycle

I would like to know how many of our Sartin Methodology faithful, feel/Know they are achieving a 55% hit rate on a two horse Win wager with average Win Mutual of $8.00 ? per 20 Race Cycle (11/20 = 55%)

Your input and feed back is greatly appreciated

Doug

[Bill V.]

I might sound like the beer advertisement but
I don't always keep 20 race cycles but when I do I usually get 11
Wins and an average of $9+

I wager to find the winner but I make most of my profits finding
good value VDC contenders
That pay well even if the place or show .
I also make good profit using these VDC horses
in doubles and pick 3-4 bets.
I generally only bet P3 or P4 with a partner

[Lt1]

I don't keep 20 races cycles anymore but so far this year I've bet 1282 races and won 792 with an avg win price of $9.70. I also play dds and have won 492 of 817 this yr.
Tim

[Procefus]

Bill & Tim Thank you for sharing.

I guess I should share.

SAR Meet '15
Non-Mdn races with fields 5+
Total of 257 races
145 Wins for hit rate of 56.4% in Top 2 VDC
Ave. Mutual $7.92

Although the Meet seemed to be productive it appears it was very challenging.

(No Horizontals or Verticals, although the data reveal they appear quite lucrative. What do you feel is an acceptable Win rate and Price in those pools?)

Any Tie Breaking Tips?

All the Best,
Doug

P.S. Currently working BEL & KEE meets

[rmath]

Procefus,
My win % is 63 with an average mutual of 9.00+
I play mostly DD with a hit rate of 55%+
I also play Pic 3s when I find three playable races in a row.
My pic 3 hit rate is 40%+.
Rmath

[Brian Chamberlain]

Thanks for sharing guys. I am having fun getting re-introduced to Sartin Methodology after a decade hiatus and sure appreciate Ted and all the leaders of this forum.

Question: On these win rates, are y'all betting two horses to win? In other works when you say you play 1200 races, is that one unit per race, two units per race, or it changes a lot, etc. Just trying to get a handle on your actual ROI, me being a financial guy.

Take care,
Brian Chamberlain
Grapevine, Texas

[Bill V.]

I have at least two horses covered in my bets
Mostly it's 2 win bets. Sometimes it's 1 horse to win and another to win/place. Sometimes I might have a 2nd horse for WPS Sometimes it's 2 horses in the double or P3 -P4
I once in a while will just have 1 horse WPS

[Brian Chamberlain]

Thanks Bill, thats close to how I do it, depending on the odds.
Brian

[Procefus]

To follow up:

BEL thru 10/12 & KEE thru 10/11

BEL
73/141 = 51.7% Hit Rate
Ave. Mutual = $6.95
ROI = .90 (-10%)

KEE
31/48 = 64.5% Hit Rate
Ave. Mutual = $8.44
ROI = 1.36

(SAR ROI was 1.118 for the Meet)

Conservative, small $200 Bank Roll(s), $2 Win on top 2 C's
Having trouble with Hides so haven't been using them.
Also having trouble breaking ties when comes to my final two

(out of work and resources are limited)

All feedback and ideas are greatly appreciated

Thank you ALL !

[noddub62]

After you have your top 5 contenders, let the odds determine which two to wager on. Out of you top 3, Doc suggested wagering on the low odds horse (after hiding for low odds that are not acceptable) and the high odds horse. Remember that if you hide a horse, you have a new top 3. This helps to get a few more longer odds horses. Also on odds 5:1 and higher I will bet a WP and a lot of times the place will pay quite well. Nothing is cast in stone however as everyone has to evolve their method.

[Procefus]

Thank you for your input Gentleman!

May Your Tracks always be FAST

Doug

[Procefus]

My final results for KEE Fall Meet ' 15 and BEL update with 1 week left to go.

KEE
Non-Mdn 5HF+
59/101 = 58.4% Hit Rate
Ave Mutual = $7.77
ROI = 1.135

BEL results thru 10/25
Non-Mdn 5HF+
104/196 = 53% Hit Rate
Ave Mutual = $7.02
ROI = .9315 (-6.85%)

dug

[Procefus]

FYI

re: low odds favorites that win

Kee '15 Fall Meet data for Non-Mdns above

69.5% of My 59 Non-Mdn winners were under $7
52.5% under $6
28.8% under $5

dug

(as in dug-a-hole)

P.S. Hides wouldn't Help, at least on those races; looks like back to the Section on The Art of Passing Races..........or using these low price horses leveraged in the Exotics

[atkinsrr]

Hello to all...haven't been here in a while....been very busy with racing and working....thought I'd put in my 2 cents worth on this discussion....I still keep 20 race cycles but do it a little differently than most....since I only involve myself in the win pool my 20 race cycle includes win bets and pic 3's and pic 4's....with the pic 3's and 4's I always have more than 2 horses on my ticket for each race and there are times when I bet 3 horses to win on my win wagers ...sometimes 2 and sometimes only one...depending on the situation...including the Breeders Cup I have handicapped 361 races for the year won 139 lost 112 passed 110 win % 55.3% with ave mutual $10.49....my biggest earnings are from pick 4's on big Stakes days when the pools are large...i.e. late pic 4 in this years Breeders Cup had 3.3 million in the pool and when I hit A.P. in the classic the 50 cent p4 paid $765.00....also had Tonalist paying $1900 Honor Code paying $1600 and Effinex paying $14,000...had to use all the favs on my tickets but beat 3 of them...needed to beat AP for a monster payoff....I strongly rec using DOCS 20 race cycle report with the backside being used for other records and notes that you may want to keep...really helps me....best wishes to all....Randy A.