MC Oct 31 by Capcondo

[The Pook]

Tim gets to do Breeders Cup Day.

[Capcondo]

Even though there are rain showers in the forecast, we're going with three (count 'em) breeder's cup races to give those who are lagging behind a chance to make up some ground (or give raceman an insurmountable lead). I've decided to only pick races on the dirt because of the weather forecast.

The races are:

#5: 7f Fillies and mares 3 and up. Post time 1:25 ET
#7: 6f Sprint 3 and up. Post time 2:50 ET
#11: Classic 1 1/4 3 and up. Post time 5:35 ET

I'll calculate a hypothetical pick 3 based on the win odds though that will not be part of the contest.

Here are the races:

39385

39386

39387


Good Luck!

Tim

[cigar]

Race:5
pace: 23.1 - 44.5
contenders: 5-14-2-11

win:11-2

Race:7
pace:21.5 - 44.2
contenders: 4-5-8-10-14

RUN HAPPY IS THE HORSE TO BEAR! HOWEVER GOING FOR THE BOMB.

WIN: 4-10

RACE: 11
PACE:

CONTENDERS:1-4-5-6

AP IS THE HORSE TO BEAT, LOOKING FOR VALUE

WIN: 1 - 6

[PeteC]

Thanks for these nice races Tim, definitely a shot for us at the rear to make up some ground....

5th:
I used the last line of the 8 for today’s pace:21.4 44.3…Running through the field with that pace in mind I run through the field and see the 1,3,4,5,6,8 and 11 have won or finished very close against it. My eye keeps coming back to the 3 calls fighting against a wicked pace last out by the 3. It has also run well two other times against that pace. The 3 to win.

7th:
I used the POR of the 5…21.2 44.4…I will go OTE in this one and I like the 8.

I will pass the Classic…


Good luck everyone...

[The Pook]

KEE 5

Lots of fast horses. 1,3,4,6,8,9 Early. Pace 22 and 44ish? 1,8,9 need the lead...out. 6 not fast enough. 3 and 4 can win from slightly off also. They have beaten many others in tandems in here. There are some good OTE's but I think I will go with these two closer to the pace types.

3,4

Pook

[Capcondo]

Race #7: 15-Gentlemen's Bet

Race #11: #7-Smooth Roller and #10-Beholder

[Capcondo]

Race #5:

This race is chalked full of early speed. The 1,3,4,6,8, and 9 are early. I think it will go 21.4 44.1 similar to the 3's race 3 back. The sustained horse that looks to handle the pace the best is the 11. The 11 is my choice.

Race #7:

Another race full of early speed with the 5, 9, 13, and 14. I'm looking sustained. The 3 shows he can handle a 21.2 with solid internal fractions. The 3 is my choice.

Race #11:

With the 7 and 10 scratched, there is less early speed here. But Frosted may do what he did in the Travers and challenge AP. I like the 1 who may not face quite the pace he did in the Whitney. The 1 is my choice.

GL all,

Tim

[GeorgeC5614]

Keeneland Race #5

A whole lot of early speed! I think the pace will be around 21.1 and 44.1 my picks here are the 8 and 13.

Keeneland Race #7

Another race with many early horses. The 5, 13, and 14 should be setting the pace here with the winner coming from off the pace. My picks would be the 8 and 9.

Keeneland Race #11

American Pharoah should be setting a pretty good pace here. The race comes down to whether or not AP is pushed up front. If AP has pressure the winner will probably come from off the pace. If he is not he should win wire to wire. My picks would be 4 and 9.

[The Pook]

KEE 7

Going against the speed with 4 and 8 which can come from off to win against a 21 and change, 43 and change.

4,8

Pook

[mowens33]

Pace Line: 21.8--44.2--1.09.2

My contenders: 1-3-4-8-13

My picks 1 and 4

[mowens33]

Race 7

21.5--45.0--1:09.8

Contenders: 5-6-8-10-14

My Pick 10-14

[raceman5]

6 /8

[Capcondo]

Not quite as long as I hoped. The 5th race was good though.

39397

39398

39399

Hypothetical pick 3 based on win odds goes $97.24 on a $2 bet.

Tim