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Bill V.
02-29-2016, 11:45 AM
From a private message question,
and please don't ever consider asking questions anything but welcomed learning for all.

This is in regards to this posted race
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=102198&postcount=1
Why would I use a 8 furlong pace line for a 10 furlong race
Doc's guidelines are to use lines within a furlong of today's distance
I used a mile line for both the winner and the place horse
For the 1 I suppose i should have used line 2, but line 2 at 8.5 is also more than 1 furlong short.

For the winner #4 I used the last line Its from 1 mile, Line 2 is from 8.5
so again It still doe not make the guidelines. However l iine 2 to me looks like
a trouble trip. It does not say so in the comments but looking at the position the horse normally runs and its TPR readouts, Line 2 looks just like it just did
not fire, But It has run well at 8.5 in the past.
I stayed with the last line.


Doc offers guidelines not rules

Bill V.
02-29-2016, 11:51 AM
horse 1 2 3 4
39614
39615
39616
39617

Bill V.
02-29-2016, 11:53 AM
5 6 7

39618

39619

39620

atkinsrr
03-01-2016, 02:34 PM
Hi Bill just read your comments on the 10F race at S.A. where you used 8F lines...I also have this problem in 10F races so I usually pass a lot of them...but I was wondering if you ever go back more than 4 lines to get a pace line. Sometimes I will go back 6 or more pace lines in these longer races if that's what I have to do to get within one furlong of todays distance...but usually if it's at the same race track as todays race....your thoughts please
Randy A.

Bill V.
03-01-2016, 03:29 PM
HELLO Randy
Welcome to the TPR forum Glad to see you here
That is an excellent question .
No not really , but I will look at races past 4 back at a closer distance to see if the phase 1 numbers EP LP and TPR match the race I am considering that is in the top 4
lines . I recently discusses this in a pm .
All the lines in the SA 10 f race are adjusted to today's 10f
distance So if a horse runs let's say a 180 TPR at 10 f
In line 6 and today I see it is being rated off a 8.5 line
In like line 2 and it also get a 180 with a matching early late readout to line 6 then I will have no problem using line 2 even though it does not fit the 1 furlong guideline
I think in most 10f race you will need to blend the guideline but I would not do it in the triple crown races
Bill

gl45
03-01-2016, 08:05 PM
this game is tough enough that there is no need to make it more difficult.
If you don't feel confident just pass.

Mark
03-01-2016, 09:55 PM
Bill, in my view, because of the many years you have worked with TPR numbers, or Phase I, methodically and persistently practicing this craft, you see a horse race through TPR. I salute you. I wish I was better at it. Jim Bradshaw used RAW paceline times and positions and he found his way to recognize winning "pictures", pattern recognition. You are doing the same thing with your use of TPR aided by databases to establish winners' parameters I believe.
Many people suffer from "New is better". Over the decades of my play I have suffered from this. So as new factors and presentations have been introduced they tend to migrate into those areas. However, in my experience when I have found a winning horseplayer, generally they have been using their method for years not months. In doing so, they recognize pacelines that don't seem to fit and others that leap from the page.
Glad to see you are more involved again and I always enjoy your perspective on these races.

Bill V.
03-01-2016, 10:18 PM
MARK ! welcome to the TPR forum:)
Thank you for the very nice complaments
I hope you can help us out with your match up skills
Always appreciative of the kind honest way you communicate on the PM's. *

Mitch44
03-02-2016, 08:20 AM
Conceptually and for beginners TPR or Phase 1 is a piece of cake. What enhances it is the advance concepts put forth by the Doc which many can't employ. These advance concepts are including in BL/BL and V/DC along in other readouts. which are far superior to TPR and earlier phases. He also improved beaten the length formulas in all the programs, however I'm not sure with this version of TPR. Good ? ??? for Ted here.

The Doc also evolved as far as pace lines to stay within 1 F and the reason for this is that extraction for distances (a horse shortening up is more accurate because the horse has already run the distance and actually may improve because it won't decelerate as much at a shorter dis), in stretch outs one is asking a horse to do something it never has done and the greater the stretch out the less accurate the projection. Picking lines greater than 1 F is a road to the poor house. It may work in anyone race but not in any series of races. Good luck with that.

Myself I never would have used 8F lines for this 10 F race. Now some helpful hints in the line you pick for stretch outs is its 3rd Fr or LPR which in this case (your 8F lines) is greater ( good sign) and their Early/late show their S types (another good sign) and % Med. which we don't have here. I would say you lucked out here and with the # 7 in here scratching also helped you win.

No one can predict with any accuracy where deceleration will take place or how fast it will occur once it begins as every horse has a best distance.This is why we have minor tracks that card a lot of 5 & 5.5 F races because they decelerate and can't win at 6F which are the majority of races carded at major tracks.

Project more than 1F if you want but it'll be at your own peril the majority of time. Or you can accept the Doc's teachings that was learned through trial and error and from data collected on 10's of thousands of races.
Good luck.
Mitch44

Bill V.
03-02-2016, 10:13 AM
Welcome Mitch
Yes BLBL and vdc are advanced concepts and should be
used . I choose to use the phase 1 numbers and energy early and late factors, plus positions and the fulcrum and some form and class factors like all the authers of Pace Makes The Race . Yes you nailed. It is the simple concept that I hope can get people to the advanced concepts .
I know it's a bit confusing because this post is about anther pre run race posted were I showed the readouts
But I left out horse 6 line and show a scratched horse.
I hope to blend the post for clarity

Mitch44
03-02-2016, 12:32 PM
Bill I admire your endeavor to advance followers to the advance concepts which is no small task. The problem is too many fall by the wayside and never succeed because of too much confusing information on RDSS I.e. Throw out horses whose morning line is 15-1 and higher. Hell isn't that what we're looking for? Or always use the last line. Another non teaching point of the Doc along with using lines more that 1 furlong to todays distance.

IMO to succeed one should use the Doc's recommended procedures as expressed in, I believe its in FU # 81 for picking pace lines not the original pace manual etc. as he evolved over the years and refined many concepts.

Also they should use the advanced tool of Perceptor which has proven better than the old speed rating plus variant etc., another old concept that has fell by the wayside. The road is littered with discarded concepts as the Doc advanced pace. Also this is probably why their told to read later editions of the Follow Up because in the earlier versions their not knowledgeable enough to know what's valid and what isn't. But as we know there's much good stuff there also.

Everyone's chance of success greatly increases with proper pace line picking as per the Doc's guidelines and use of the Perceptor. Besides being littered with a few old concepts the road is mostly really cluttered with the carcass's of those who refuse: to change, adapt or evolve as the Doc did, use basic concepts, new tools and those that get incorrect information and never even learn to crawl.

Mitch 44

atkinsrr
03-02-2016, 02:07 PM
Thanks Bill...yes...Triple Crown races are a whole different game usually I get a 9F pace line when hcp the Derby....a few times I've had to use an 8.5 f Line...but also remember DOC telling us in F.U. #87 when hcp the Preakness and Belmont to not use the Derby line....that was good advice !!!!!!!!!

DontSayDont
03-03-2016, 07:12 AM
Bill I admire your endeavor to advance followers to the advance concepts which is no small task. The problem is too many fall by the wayside and never succeed because of too much confusing information on RDSS I.e. Throw out horses whose morning line is 15-1 and higher. Hell isn't that what we're looking for? Or always use the last line. Another non teaching point of the Doc along with using lines more that 1 furlong to todays distance.

IMO to succeed one should use the Doc's recommended procedures as expressed in, I believe its in FU # 81 for picking pace lines not the original pace manual etc. as he evolved over the years and refined many concepts.

Also they should use the advanced tool of Perceptor which has proven better than the old speed rating plus variant etc., another old concept that has fell by the wayside. The road is littered with discarded concepts as the Doc advanced pace. Also this is probably why their told to read later editions of the Follow Up because in the earlier versions their not knowledgeable enough to know what's valid and what isn't. But as we know there's much good stuff there also.

Everyone's chance of success greatly increases with proper pace line picking as per the Doc's guidelines and use of the Perceptor. Besides being littered with a few old concepts the road is mostly really cluttered with the carcass's of those who refuse: to change, adapt or evolve as the Doc did, use basic concepts, new tools and those that get incorrect information and never even learn to crawl.

Mitch 44

The only problem with your post, this is a forum for: Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race', not for pace line selection and use of Perceptor. I am sure if you or someone with knowledge of the correct use of perceptor wanted to start a forum on that, you would get a good following of players wanting to learn that information.

One problem I would have about NOT using a line outside of 1 furlong of today's distance is the "tool box" angle about the sprint-sprint-route training pattern that is talked about in some of the handicapping books and by a online personality who I will leave nameless.

I only mention that as I believe that when push comes to shove, each individual has to find a methodology/systematical way of approaching handicapping that leads them to a way where it is both comfortable and enjoyable to engage in this horse racing endevour. I did not include profitable in that sentence as not everyone involved in handicapping has to make a profit to be content but use it as an enjoyable pastime. I am not a full time player or a profitable overall player (yet, maybe one day) but one of the great enjoyments for me and my spouse is all the different tracks we have visited because of going to Finger Lakes Race Track many, many years ago for the very first live racing venture.

Good success to everyone, however you approach the game.

Bill is providing just one possible procedure and it works well for him as he has proven in many of his posts on here.

Ray

Mitch44
03-03-2016, 09:25 AM
Ray even with Phase 1 if you can't pick pace lines you can't win. Its the springboard to success or springboard to losers. No different than going from point A to point B in a car, if you don't put the key in the ignition and turn it than your stuck at A.

As far as Preceptor, I hear stuff in here such as match-up, your own tool box comment etc. that are not in Pace Makes the Race. I believe you take my posts the wrong way as I'm trying to contribute to the discussion. However I find it hard to ignore or go against the Doc's teachings that have proven themselves such as pace line selection. Your the first I've heard who are not in this to make a few $

I didn't see this race till about 10 pm last night or would have tried to fit it in my schedule. I really like that it was posted prior to the start. (the 7th at Turf Paradise) I did work it with the information Bill provided and had the winner. Then I tried it with RDSS and the use of Perceptor and changed one line. The winner came up 3rd there however #'s 2,3,& 4th ranked on BL/BL were so close that advanced techniques were used to get the winner in the top 2.

I won't comment on the pace line selection used here as its no different then the previous race.
Good luck,
Mitch44

Lt1
03-03-2016, 10:53 AM
Hi folks. I've been a member of the group since 1990 and thanks to Doc,Jimmy, and others I am a successful horse racing investor. With regards to this thread I feel that if Bills intention is to show newer and struggling members how to properly apply TPR/Phase 1 then I believe we should stick to races where guidelines are followed to the letter. If on the other hand Bill is just showing how he won a race then bend away. The call is for Bill to make.
Tim Gagas

dlivery
03-03-2016, 11:55 AM
We are here to share ideas and believe it or not weather it constuctive to help or not we will gather all informationat at different levels of expertise and since reading and learning in the area on pace line selection has cetainly not hurt my good skills I have learned from this discussion

lone speed
03-09-2016, 02:21 PM
From a private message question,
and please don't ever consider asking questions anything but welcomed learning for all.

This is in regards to this posted race
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=102198&postcount=1
Why would I use a 8 furlong pace line for a 10 furlong race
Doc's guidelines are to use lines within a furlong of today's distance
I used a mile line for both the winner and the place horse
For the 1 I suppose i should have used line 2, but line 2 at 8.5 is also more than 1 furlong short.

For the winner #4 I used the last line Its from 1 mile, Line 2 is from 8.5
so again It still doe not make the guidelines. However l iine 2 to me looks like
a trouble trip. It does not say so in the comments but looking at the position the horse normally runs and its TPR readouts, Line 2 looks just like it just did
not fire, But It has run well at 8.5 in the past.
I stayed with the last line.


Doc offers guidelines not rules

Let's look at Bill V.'s chosen pacelines and the TPR match up

40016

Evaluating the early match-up, we noticed that there are no early horses and that the whole field runs late, which should be no surprise; as these are all turf runners.

We can quickly eliminate #2 Shyshe and #6 Cornish. We can eliminate Shyshe because if she runs early as does #4 Agustina; but if you match just these two with only TPR numbers, we can see that #4 Agustina has a better late kick than #2 Shyshe. #6 Cornish has the lowest CPR total of 181.0.

Now with the remaining four contenders; most Sartin programs will have #1 Artistic and #3 Moon Over and #4 Agustina in that particular order. Now some will "wagercap" or there are others who will take the best value; or those who will hide the favorite.....

But can we evaluate this match-up better? More "optimal"?????

Let's look at this match-up with Bill V.'s chosen pacelines in one of Doc Sartin program but it should be readily available in most programs including RDSS.

40017

Let's focus on the F1 or First Call matchup in this race and let's evaluate what we can discern or to detect a match-up advantage in this race.

We can see that #4 Augustina has a HUGE early 1st Call advantage over this field. Her advantage at the first call is almost +0.70 energy points over her nearest rival. If she can conserve energy in the early pace of this match-up; #4 Augustina will have more energy for the rest of the race. #4 Augustina will be able to run faster than the 102.3 LPR from her last paceline.

40018
In the seminars that I had attended with Doc Sartin and the expert users of Energy like Glen Connolly; Glen the "General from Maryland" talked about the 100's horses who dominated the early match- up readouts. They are dangerous if left alone on the early pace. Especially if they have two 100's on the match-up screens. F1 and F2 columns These horses are usually ranked third or fourth on V/DC or B/L screens nowadays in updated programs.

This is just my humble opinion and from my own experiences with the Sartin Methodology. ;)

lone speed
04-11-2016, 09:13 PM
I was asked to explained in-depth; the reasons behind the strong corollaries when a horse controls the first call and the 2nd call match up in the dream race. This person made a lot good points that many especially new Rdss users will not fully grasp the importance of these readouts as they are from older Sartin software. But I decided to let Doc Sartin explain it himself, as I dug up these pages from the 1988 Las Vegas seminar.

40297

40298

40299

40300

lone speed
04-11-2016, 09:14 PM
40301

40302