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Bill V.
03-02-2016, 07:32 AM
From Flagstaff Arizona on my way down to Phoenix today delivering Big Brown
UPS packages
So lets work Race 7 today 3/2/16


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Bill V.
03-02-2016, 07:36 AM
5 6 7 8

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Bill V.
03-02-2016, 07:40 AM
TPR Screen broken down
Early 2 and 3
Press 4 8 9
Sus 7 6 1

I will post my selections in a few
I know I like the 5 but ??? is the 4 the fulcrum going to be there?
Will the Earlys 2 and 3 cancel each other out ? Is the 7 too late?
does the 8 have enough total energy and LPR ?

comments welcome, lets get this one :)

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mowens33
03-02-2016, 11:26 AM
Bill, here is my Matchup look.

We have 4 maybe 5 contenders, should get a good price on at least 2 of them?

Was hoping you could post the segment screen for the race.

Thanks, Mike

Bill V.
03-02-2016, 06:12 PM
Sorry Mike I am still down in Phoenix I will bet from my phone but I can't post up the segs screen till later

mowens33
03-02-2016, 06:12 PM
Looking for a good ticket:

5 and 6

Bill V.
03-02-2016, 06:12 PM
I'm going 4 and 5

mowens33
03-02-2016, 06:13 PM
Sorry Mike I am still down in Phoenix I will bet from my phone but I can't post up the segs screen till later

Bill, no problem!

Good Luck!!

Mike

rmath
03-02-2016, 06:19 PM
I do not usually play Turf races.
But will try .
The 3-4-7-8 are my main selections.
The 4 & 7 are my win bets The 3 & 8 are to low on odds.




















































the

mowens33
03-02-2016, 06:38 PM
Ran like I thought (needed a little faster up front), 6 looked like a winner at the top of the stretch (little wide), but the 3 held tough.

Mike

rmath
03-02-2016, 07:07 PM
Nice call on the 6.
I thought he was going to get up.

mowens33
03-02-2016, 07:38 PM
rmath, Thanks!

In hindsight she may have made her move to soon and flattened out?

Mike

Bill V.
03-03-2016, 12:03 PM
Richard and Mike and to all the views
Thank you for posting up your race comments and selections
lets keep it up .!
Thank YOU

Nice work getting to the 6 Mike
Just before post time I saw the 8 took a lot of money,
This gave me a little more value on the 3
I made a saver exacta 3/56 so thank you .

Here is the segments screen
and the result chart

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Mark
03-03-2016, 02:08 PM
I admit it. I am a Bradshaw devotee. I have spent the last two years studying the Hat Check blog and trying to find the best way to utilize RDSS2 to implement his concepts and methods. One of the shortcomings of TPR is also one of its great strengths: Simplicity! 3 numbers basically and therein lies the problems. There is a whole lot of race before the 2nd call, EPR. I'd go so far as to say that the race is decided by the 2nd Call. To ignore the early contention and battle for the lead is a critical fault. The race that was just handicapped ignored the fact that the #3 could Press. In fact she had won from the 7th and 5th position at the 1st call in races showing in her pps. The only other early running horse in the race was a horse with little turf experience and her one race was horrible. So how fast was the #3 going to have to run early? And why is the result today going to be different than the last race tandem 21 days ago When the #6 and #8 caught and passed the #3 late?

In that race the #3 took the lead and had to fight all the way to and beyond the stretch call. Bradshaw loved "fighters", Richie told us that many times. If the #3 elects not to grab the lead going to the 1st Call as she has shown capable of doing and doesn't fight head and head for 7/8ths of the race and today she only has to navigate 8f rather then 8.5f might we think she would expend less energy in the early and middle portion of the race and have reserve energy to extend her speed at the finish?

From the postings of races Bill has done, I think he does a lot of this subconsciously. But for new folks starting to use TPR it is a critical portion of the analysis. There is a huge difference in how an E or P horse gets to the 2nd call. 23 -47.3 - 1:12.3 is a huge difference than 24 -48 - 1:12.2 but this is not really a focus of TPR. It is as though the race begins at the 2nd Call.

One man's opinion!

lone speed
03-03-2016, 02:39 PM
But for new folks starting to use TPR it is a critical portion of the analysis. There is a huge difference in how an E or P horse gets to the 2nd call. 23 -47.3 - 1:12.3 is a huge difference than 24 -48 - 1:12.2 but this is not really a focus of TPR. It is as though the race begins at the 2nd Call.

One man's opinion!

Great comment Mark!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have been a huge "devotee" of Bradshaw's match up concepts but in conjunction with Sartin programs. EVALUATE the match up at the FIRST CALL after getting rid of horses that are default horses and those that are too far back against today's pace match up....my humble two cents:rolleyes::cool:

Mitch44
03-03-2016, 03:43 PM
Mark your absolutely correct in that how a horse obtains the SC is more important than the number itself. The match-up does consider this and both the Doc and Jimmy realized this and all future programs were built around all three fractions.

One of the big problems with 3 Fr's, for me at least, was that they were in feet per second and hard to comprehend how much a beaten length actually was. I figured out a way to adjust them to be more simplistic.

Because TPR is so simplistic many more are able to understand it better. Like me some can't juggle too many balls at once. One can be surprised how much can be learned by TPR.

As far as your quest in RDSS for the match up its there. Both Jimmy & the Doc incorporated it in such readouts as BL/BL & V/DC. However things like "Fighters" are hard if not impossible to reduce to a mathematical formula. So a study of Jimmies match up is helpful. Few can achieve what Jimmy could do with RMATH being the only exception I've ever known of. This is where you have to find your level of understanding and go with it.

Some never get pass TPR and make it work fine. Your knowledge of the match up and how the SC is achieved would put you above others using TPR as most just don't get that. That is if you were to incorporate it. Myself I don't do that as it done for me already as mentioned earlier. I use TPR as a corollary to help separate contenders etc.

Everyone can learn something from TPR however if you can't pick contenders and pace lines no program can help you.

Mitch 44

Bill V.
03-03-2016, 03:48 PM
Mark, Mitch and Lonespeed thank you so much for the great way you expressed your use of the Sartins tools .
Guys it took me a long time. ONE of the coolest things I
learned from watching Mr Bradshaw was he would call the winner of the race just before the second call . We would watch races on TV in his living room , The gate would pop.
We would be talking, sbout nothing in particular and without any information on the race or from were it was being run or the class of the horse but from the position and fractions at that moment he would say
BEFORE the second call Bill the X horse will win.

I Know I am not evaluating the gate and 1st fraction ,
But phase 1 makes me look to the LEFT of the pp's and check break, positions and times.
Forced focus I guess,
Good SKILL
BILL