Last Line First

[Bill V.]

This is in response to a PM
What a nice professional man he is, I have great respect for his desire for
clarity in a Pace and Cap friendly way .

Step 1 in Phase 1 is to ALWAYS run the last line for every horse in the race.
The winner will (almost) always come from one of these horses .
This does not mean we should ONLY look at the last line, Its just a important
step .

I bet this race today I will post my twin spires bets for Friday
for some reason when I bet off my phone with Twinspires mobile app
it takes a few days to show up on the detail page online.

Here is race 9 from Turfway 3/4/16

The first thing I did was set RDSS2 to select the last line for all the horses
now note the top 5 TPR horses .

39917

Now I have a basic idea of a few things I don't want to get too involved in them yet , I will as time goes on ,but basically I'm looking at the top 5 TPR
horses and the best EPR ratings

Now that I have my Top 5 TPR last line horses I will start selecting my pace lines.
I will post them but this time I am not going to comment on why I picked
my lines I will say my fulcrum was the 1 7 tandem about a 45.3

here are the horses, my lines are checked.

[Bill V.]

1 2 3 4

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39918

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39920

[Bill V.]

5 6 7 8 9

39922

39926

39923

39924

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[Bill V.]

I will wait a little before I post up the Phase 1 readouts
and result chart

The winner Is one of the top 5 off the last line,
I was able to use a better line One that match the fulcrum pace,
It was a + paceline within 90 days

Good Skilll
Bill

[shoeless]

Bill,

Do you ever apply the fulcrum using the EPR numbers as Pizzolla
suggests in Pace Makes the Race?

Jeff

[The Pook]

Hi Bill, this was a nice score. To look at the actual running line from the last race you would not expect it to rank as high as it did in TPR. The public was fooled. I didn't use the last line for that horse but it pointed in the right direction also.

Pook

[Bill V.]

Hello Jeff
Yes of course. Let's say for example my fulcrum is a 94 epr I verify that the fulcrum horse has run competitively
against a 94 , that is the line is not atypical .
Now when I look at horse with competitive races with eprs like a 84 that means if theY run a 84 today they will probaby be too far back . So to move closer to the pace of 94 they most likely will run a lower lpr.
Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Pook ,
Yes this is why I have to disagree with Doc.
And the people who say that phase 1 will only get low priced horses . Or $6 horses
In your match up contest race the top 5 off the last line ar 4 8 1 3 2 and some of those lines look terrible, the only horses with a plus paceline are the 4 which was it's mcs 40 win line , and the 8 who is rising in class of a loss. The 5 and 6 show (+) last lines but have low LPS because they both were coming off layoffs and today they drop in class

[lone speed]

Only contender left with a late energy distribution...

TPR

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Result chart

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[shoeless]

Bill,

Very nice hit

Jeff