Horses Don't Run In A Straight Line

[For The Lead]

I’ve been sitting on this race for a couple of days deciding whether or not to post it. In the end, I thought it had a few interesting concepts and that was reason enough for posting.

Several days ago Bill V put up a thread titled “Races that I look for”. I was going to title this thread, “Races that I FIND!”, but decided against it. Instead, I thought a more appropriate title would be “HORSES DON’T RUN IN A STRAIGHT LINE.” You’ll see what I mean.

This is the 3rd race from Mountaineer on 9/27/13. It’s a normal (for MNR) $5,000 claiming race with a NW1Y (non winners of a race in a year) condition. Here is my rundown followed by the horses. I’m going to make the rundown brief. Anyone following my threads probably have this down cold by now anyway, so no need to drone on. Not only that, but there is going to be a lot said when posting the screen shots.

#1 - Last line. it is a "(+)" line.
#2 - Last line. It is a "+" line.
#3 - NO LINE
#4 - NO LINE
#5 - Last line. It is a "+" line.
#6 - NO LINE
#7 - Last line. It is a "(+)" line.
#8 - Last line. It is a "+" line.

[For The Lead]

The rest of the field.

[Appy]

Not sure what the question is FTL, but I'm liking the 8 off a quick rundown of the shots.
Better yet I'm liking the practice at running line choice.
Have to admit I might have been tempted to take line 3 for #4.

[For The Lead]

Ok, so you have my rundown and the horses. I wasn't sure what I wanted to cover first, but decided on "horse racing and handicapping". Picking lines and looking at readouts isn't all there is in handicapping a horse race.

I marked the lifetime win records for a few horses in the race. Keep in mind the condition of today's race is NW1Y.
The #3 AND #4 horses aren't contenders anyway, but nevertheless it is worth reviewing them.
The #3 is 2 for 30 lifetime, not very good. More important is, this horse has two other conditions it could be running in rather than today's condition...NW3L and NW4L.
The #4 horse is 3 for 41 lifetime and it, too, could be in some other condition other than today's, specifically NW4L.
The #5 horse is 2 for 25 lifetime and like the #3 horse could be in a NW3L or a NW4L condition rather than today's condition.
Why does this matter?
If either of these horse horses were to win today, they will have "lost" a "life" condition. A horse can only beat NW2L or NW3L or NW4L ONCE. So should the #3 or #5 horse win today, they can never run in a NW3L condition. They would have to move on to a NW4L condition. In the case of the #4 horse, if it should win today, NW4L is off the table.
Certainly, "life" conditions are easier since the horse is running aginst other horses that have also not won the approprite number of races. They would certainly be easier horses than those more adept at winning, like the #1 horse in today's race, that has 10 lifetime wins.
For these three horses, running in today's race would be called "running out of condition".

The first screen shot is the "origimal" tab, so we'll take a look at that.

39991

I think you would all agree that at first glance this race looks easy. There are 5 contenders and 4 of them are early. This sets the race up for an "ote" type.
But remember the title I gave to this thread.

And also remember what I said about the #5 horse. You can see in this screen that it is the only contender whose line did not come from a NW1Y condition. It came from a NW3L condition.

Next I'm posting the "TPR" screen. My only comment here is this. According to Phase I, you shoud consider as contenders any horse ranked 1 or 2 for both EPR and FFR. Also, any other horse that is within 5 points of the top TPR horse is also a contender. Come back when you are done reading and check this.

39987

Next I am going to post the "segments" screen and I "borrowed" a screen shot from Bill V, which is of a track layout Bill called "Sartin Downs".

39988

I apologize here, but you will have to move back and forth between these two screen shots to understand what I will be saying.

As you can see, the #1 horse wins the race to the First Fraction. And this is where the title of this thread comes into play.

This is a ONE MILE race, with a short run to the first turn. Early horses from the inside will benefit. Early horses on the outside will NOT benefit. Why? Because the horses on the outside have to go wide around the first turn, causing them to lose ground, especially if/when they have to try and outrun a superior early horse on the inside. If they can't get out of the gate with enough speed to cross over the field (without interferring) and get to the rail, they are in trouble.

OK, so we already know from the readout that the #1 horse is the fastest horse to the First Fraction. Where is that call on the race track? Thanks to Bill V, I will show you. Bill has marked the first fraction call with "48.10" The time is not important. The placement of the call is important. The First Fraction call in this race comes AFTER the horses have gone around the first turn and almost all the way down the backstretch. It represent 50% of the race. Remember, the early horses on the outside tend to lose ground going around the first turn, unless they are fast enough. In this race our readouts say they are not. In this race, they are trying to outrun a faster early horse breaking from the rail.
This benefits the #1 horse as it can open a clear lead down the backstretch.
Keep in mind that the #1 fought for the lead in its' last race, being just 1/2 a length back of the leader at the FIRST and SECOND calls. Where is the second call? It's over there at the top of the stretch where Bill has put "114". Again, the time doesn't matter. The position does.
So ask yourself this question. If the #1 horse was able to fight for the lead in its' last race from the start to the top of the stretch, never being able to actually get the lead, what will it do if it makes it to the top of the stretch on an easy lead? In all likelyhood, it will coast home, winning the race.

So let's recap.
We have an 8 horse field with 5 contenders, 4 of which are early types.

One of the contenders doesn't even belong in this race...#5, weakening its' chance to win or even being a factor in the race.

Two other early horses are breaking from the two outside post positions, making their job harder while facing superior early speed from the rail.

The lone sustained horse is handicapped by the fact that it will not get the speed duel up front that it needs.

The winner, #1, is the most prolific winning horse in the field with 10 victories, when in condition to do so. The fact that it fought for the lead for the first two calls in its' last race, signaled it is coming to form.

So remember, the next time you encounter a race like this and you're looking at your readouts, "HORSES DON'T RUN IN A STRAIGHT LINE!"



39990

Here is the BL/BL screen shot, although in this case, it doesn't matter.

[For The Lead]

The Chart of the race. Look it over.

[Bill V.]

Hi FTL

Once again thank you for a great lesson

I am glad you used my Sartin Downs screen as a guide.
As I said in my video I use it pretty often
to see who will be where in the match up.

FTL I see the 1 has run in a time restricted claimers at MNR.
Non winner of 2 races in 1 yesr
Some of the horses in this race are stuck in the lifetime rut

Now that the 1 has its 11th win It can now still go back to the
non winner of 2 in a year races

Looking at horse 5 and seeing all the failures at the non winner
of 3 life level, It would have a tough time moving up.

I set my screen in RDSS so I can see its Phase 1 numbers
I would look at the 5 horses ability and ask why does it keep failing?

Anyway, your example race here shows so much more than appears at first
run through.

glad you posted this race,. When I work races from Parx I look for the horse with the most wins and see if it has run plus lines in the non winner of
1 or 2 races in 6 months condition The often are superior to the horses like horse 5 who are stuck.

Bill

[Bill V.]

Better yet I'm liking the practice at running line choice.
Have to admit I might have been tempted to take line 3 for #4.

Hi Appy

The problem with line 3 that I see is .

Is it a plus race ? - No
Is it a plus within a zero race ? well kind of but ......

Was it involved and or competitive in the pace of race ? y/n ?

It you were to use the Sartin Downs track guide FTL posted
place your mouse at the 4 calls and follow Horse 4 pattern

At the start of the race it broke second but by the time it hit the first fraction
(48.1) it was passed by a horse and is now 3rd 3.5 behind the leader.
When it goes around the turn it picks up 1.5 lengths. but is passed by
2 more horses. Its losing position because other horses in the race are gaining
on the pace of race. and its losing. At the EP (114) mark it is just 3 off the POR but it then packs it in and loses 10 lengths and 4 positions in the 3rd fraction.

I would agree with FTL here and not consider it a (+)
My reason is the fact that after each call it either lost position or lengths
through out the race.

Bill

[Segwin]

Not sure why it didn't copy the actual picture of the bl/bl however I think that this screen shot matters the most.

When Ted and I were talking yesterday we touched upon the learning curve associated with RDSS. One point that Ted reiterated was the fact that RDSS is not a black box.

This thread is a perfect example in that the #1 horse wasn't viewed favorably in the bl/bl screen.

Thanks for the lesson FTL.




Here is the BL/BL screen shot, although in this case, it doesn't matter.

[Because I Can Jim]

When I read thru the manuals and Follow Ups, one thing that hits me in the back of my mind is the simple tools that were developed in the methodology that many of us - me included - sometimes ignore. For example - the +, (+) and 0's - a simple tool.

Bill and FTL showed the "Sartin Downs" racetrack.
FTL talked about the horses going into the first turn on the mile oval.

When we read their words, we can see in our mind what they are talking about. However, if you are like me, when it comes to looking at and analyzing the racse in RDSS, I am so far away from seeing the race unfold in my mind.

I remember seeing these two forms and made copies a few months ago. Using them was a different story - much more difficult.

FLT already described the horses getting to the 1F. Show them on the form.

The Challenge:
Visualize and mark on the forms what you see in your mind and the reasoning behind it.

If you are like me - and I am pretty much like everyone else - not so easy.

If you want, post your racetrack.

See what happens.

I've included PDFs to download and printout. :)

Jim

[Appy]

This is all great stuff. OF course it's all somewhat new to me and I'm packing more in my little horse brain that fits comfortably in a short time, but one overriding theme included in FTL's posts is doing due diligence examining the form instead of getting all caught up in performance ratings immediately.
I went through his screenshot of entries in about 45 seconds and settled on the eight so fast I didn't even notice the rdss highlite.
Then FTL showed the result which made a very quick point that was again proven when I did my evaluation card later. I made may picks, noted what rdss suggested, and looked at the result chart...which showed my W pick was scratched! So I returned to the entry screen and did my best to employ what FTL had said. I noted weight allowances, layoffs, everything I could. Took my time, corrected 2 line selections, and made my picks. rdss also showed new suggestions and I noted those. It worked to perfection because I learned another telling lesson.
Gawd I love making progress I can FEEL!
Thanks to all you guys.

[Mark]

Mountaineer is a very unique track. I believe at one time it was a bull ring but was expanded to a mile. Here is the track layout:
39997

This is possibly one reason these races don't transfer well to other tracks.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Mark

Yes besides the very wide turn I see the start/finish line is not as close to the first turn as I thought . I wonder if horse running at MNR for the first time
wonder why they are getting so tired on the turn :)

Parx is a more conventional mile oval

39999


974 feet from last turn to finish. To first Turn, 313 feet.


Bill

[Mark]

Bill,
Have you ever gone out to Pomona for the County Fair and watched the races? That is a true Bull Ring. The radius of the turns is so short that it places an absolute premium on early speed. Jockeys like Flores and Martin Pedroza would have a field trip there. (A lot of the top riders took the meet off). The centrifigal force in those turns is minimal down low on the rail but if you were more than 2 horses wide you could forget it. Sore legged horses will quit running as the pressure on their knees and suspensory while trying to take that turn at speed would stop them. You have that same condition in the Clubhouse turn at MNR. No one ever wants to get hung wide in either turn but a horse is virtually eliminated if wide on MNR's first turn in route races. So FTL's comments concerning this race are magnified. Hopefully, this helps explain some of the vagarities of that track.

[Ted Craven]

If RDSS users want to see this kind of track related information, check the link on the RDSS Desktop:

39998

It takes you to: http://www1.drf.com/entries/entries_info.html

And, Pomona = Fairplex (http://www1.drf.com/trackinfo/fairplex_park.html)

Ted

[Segwin]

Thanks Ted - that never caught my eye.

If RDSS users want to see this kind of track related information, check the link on the RDSS Desktop:

35893

It takes you to: http://www1.drf.com/entries/entries_info.html

And, Pomona = Fairplex (http://www1.drf.com/trackinfo/fairplex_park.html)

Ted

[Bill V.]

Thanks for the different track information

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

This is one of my favorite spot plays and I look for it all the time

To review I quote FTL

This is a ONE MILE race, with a short run to the first turn. Early horses from the inside will benefit. Early horses on the outside will NOT benefit. Why? Because the horses on the outside have to go wide around the first turn, causing them to lose ground, especially if/when they have to try and outrun a superior early horse on the inside. If they can't get out of the gate with enough speed to cross over the field (without interferring) and get to the rail, they are in trouble.

Yesterday Race 6 at Turf Paradise, what did I see, Yes !!!
a one mile route the favorite is # 8 -- The outside post and its an Early runner.

I blocked out my TS bet but lets say it was over normal ,

40000

Here is my work up

Step 1 Run each horse's last pace line , take note of the top 5 TPR.
Top 5 TPR Line 1
5 8 7 6 1

Step 2
Find The Fulcrum = find the best EPR of a horse from the last line that is within 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time
Fulcrum 80

Step 3 Mark the running styles
Running styles
Horse 1 EP Line 1
Horse 2 Presser 1
Horse 3 Sus Line 1
Horse 4 EP line 1 sprinter
Horse 5 Sus line 1
Horse 6 Early Line 1
Horse 7 Press line 1
Horse 8 Early line 1

Step 4 Who are the best Earlys
The 8 has the best EPR 90
Early BUT ITS OUTSIDE !!!

Now will the 8 with a low 77 LPR
be able to hold on .

Step 5 Rate the Early , then the Pressers , Then the Substantiated

The top TPR horses are 8 7 and 5

Step 6 Check the VDC readout
Top 3 VDC 7 6 (1-8 )
My bets 7-5

Here is a new improved TPR screen,
with the VDC rankings in percentage from the best


40013





I will post the pps next

[Bill V.]

horses

40009

40010

40011

40012

[Bill V.]

5 6 7 8

40005

40006

40007

40008

[Bill V.]

The Best Early #8 on the outside did not win. The 7 and 6 with good LPS and VDC ran well

Here is the chart

40014

[Bill V.]

To stay on topic of outside horses with early energy
I moved the next few post from this thread to this thread
about the fulcrum Finding The Fulcrum

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10383

[Mitch44]

The new screen for TPR is definitely an improvement with V/DC % and running style. I could think of some other improvements but this a big step forward. Especially for those that use TPR only or just getting involved. Those like yourself Bill who use it will be able to step up their game.

Mitch44