Calculating TPR

[CaptDon100]

I am working on calculating TPR, and got lost in the math.
Let me start with EPR
2nd call 45.3 the EPR is 92 - 1 1/2 BL = 91

LPR
1:11 time is 71 sec. - SC 45.3 = 25.7 is LRP 81
plus 1 length ahead= LRP (FFP) 82

If Tres Belle was a SP why such a good EPR and low LRP

TPR is 174

any help would be great.
Thanks
Don

[Bill V.]

Hi Don

I have a couple of questions

How are you figuring the the TPR in regards to the track to track and daily track variant ?

Second were are you seeing Tres as a SP ?

It looks like a presser to me The last line it was 4th
but against a much fast POR than its other races were it was closer to the pace


40034

[CaptDon100]

Hey Bill, Yes sorry he is a presser,
Im talking TPR in regards to the track to track and daily track variant.
I am keeping a model from the result charts after the race has run

and my other Handicap Profile is before the race was run. That's the info I have before the race.

I also keep a betting model

I am still trying to find record keeping that works for me. The info Im seeking
it for track profile, I thought it would be good to know what the real TPR of the race was. Do you agree?

[Bill V.]

hey Don

All records are helpful, so good for you that you are doing your work.

I find that of the 4 readouts of phase 1 I kept track of
EP, LP, TPR and the E/L difference, I find the E/L difference
to be the most helpful followed by the LP or FFR
I don't really track or try to figure the TPRs anymore but I am glad
I did at one time. Now that I understand what RDSS is doing with the phase 1 numbers I just go with them. They really only apply as each race match up dictates.

Hey Don or anybody

Looking at this screen, one of these horse's went wire to wire
and paid $17.00 can you spot who it is

was it horse A.B.C.D,E or F?

40035


GS

Bill

[CaptDon100]

Thanks Bill, how do you record the E/L diff. Do you use the number in the bar?

Wire to wire is C 85.8 and 84.2


Thanks
Don

[Bill V.]

Thanks Bill, how do you record the E/L diff. Do you use the number in the bar?

Wire to wire is C 85.8 and 84.2


Thanks
Don

Hi Don

I found the best thing for me is to go with the readout from the pace line I used.
I think it works better than figuring the Phase 1 from the result chart, Either way has its advantages,

Now as for as the wire to wire question, I think you need to look again

its was not horse C. If you truely are using phase 1
How can horse C go wire to wire when its pace line puts it 3 to 4 legnths
behind almost all the other horses.

Please take a close look at what the Phase 1 screen is showing you
Ted has done a fantasic job with the structure of this screen.
It tells you pretty much the complete Phase 1 method.

[CaptDon100]

Hey Bill, I'm glad you did this, because I am truly lost. I thought because the
EP and LP were close together, that would be the answer.
I was going to ask you to explain to me, but instead I am going to look it up in the book and see if I can figure it out, tonight. Thanks

Question: Because I haven't been around that long and do 'nt know the history of each Sartin Program, I guessing "Phase 1" is the program with TPR.
As I'm sure you can tell by my post, I have been reading Pace Makes the Race
and out of all the books I've read, that is the best book that seems to work for me the best. I am putting I lot of time into it. It is written very well and would suggest it to anyone to improve there game. Just my two cents.

[PassRace]

Horse F
Early speed horse.
ALF

[Bill V.]

Hey Bill, I'm glad you did this, because I am truly lost. I thought because the
EP and LP were close together, that would be the answer.
I was going to ask you to explain to me, but instead I am going to look it up in the book and see if I can figure it out, tonight. Thanks

Question: Because I haven't been around that long and do 'nt know the history of each Sartin Program, I guessing "Phase 1" is the program with TPR.
As I'm sure you can tell by my post, I have been reading Pace Makes the Race
and out of all the books I've read, that is the best book that seems to work for me the best. I am putting I lot of time into it. It is written very well and would suggest it to anyone to improve there game. Just my two cents.

Hi Don

No worries. Its perfectly fine to ask questions and strive to learn.
Yes the Sartin Methodology in the very beginning used just 3 readouts or calculations, Early pace and late pace or as it was called final fraction rating
or FFR. These two readouts were added together to get a third readout called
total pace.

What we call Phase 1 and what is the backbone of Pace Makes The Race
are early pace ratings plus the 3rd fraction which are adjusted based on the
different distances of the 3rd fraction to a deceleration formula which Tom
Hambelton and Doc devised. As you get more into Pace makes The Race Doc is talking about how just looking at the total pace rating is not enough.. He advised to look at the difference of the EP and LP ratings in the advance concepts section. The original down and dirty phase 1 charts are in the Red Match Up manual. Its pretty easy to do the raw EPR numbers but the track to track and dtv adjustments and the 3rd fraction adjustments are way to
much work. So thank god and Ted for RDSS2

Along with the original book Pace Makes The Race there was a computer program offered called TPR




Good reading ahead for you in Pace Makes The Race

Bill



.

[CaptDon100]

Hey Bill, sorry to take so long to get back to this, been working.
I have been reading and can not find the answer, can you help me out.
thanks
Don

[Bill V.]

Hey Bill, sorry to take so long to get back to this, been working.
I have been reading and can not find the answer, can you help me out.
thanks
Don

Hi Don

Thanks for taking the time to do the work to learn
I hope this helps you. Please read what Alf wrote

Horse F
Early speed horse.
ALF


Alf has it correct


Now we are just using Phase 1 so..
The most important step is to pick your pace lines.
Remember in phase 1 we always rate the last line first but that is another matter. For now lets just go with what I show here.


Step 1. Look at the running styles. Are there any E7 or E8's ?
Yes - Horse F F= fast :)
Of horses A B C D E, who is a EP ?
Horse D
The other's are pressers. They will only win if the early pressure falls apart.
And they are close enough at the second call.

Step 2 is to calculate the EPR LPR and TPR but we don't need to do any of that or do any of the track to track or daily track variant adjustments. RDSS2 does it all for us so lets just look at the readouts.

Who is your # 1 EPR horse ?
Horse F with a 89.5
This is a sprint race, Actually its 5.5 furlongs
The EP readout is the second call. So horse F will be in the lead at the second call.
Who has the second best EP rating ?
Horse E with a 88.4 .
Each point = 1 length so at the second call horse F still has a 1 length advantage over horse E and even bigger leads over A, B, C, and D.
This is why I told you there is no way horse C could go wire to wire
How is it going to out break horse F ?

Now there are more tools available just on this screen
Horse A has a 5 point advantage over horse F in TPR
but in Phase 1 any horse within 5 points of the top TPR horse is
a contender.

Lets look at the early late difference graph.

All the horses use there energy on the early side
So the only way horse E could over take horse F is if horse
F used too much energy to get the lead at the EP point
(the second call )

Horse F is a lone E-8
Just by what we see on the readouts there was no other early pressure
besides horse E,
Look at how horse E uses its energy almost the same as horse F
11 for F
9 for E
So were will horse E get the energy to over take horse F ?
This is in the advanced concepts chapter in the original Pace Makes The Race.

Lastly although total energy is not part of phase 1 Ted has added it to the TPR screen and its very helpful. Every horse runs about a 166 total energy
total energy is the sum of the 3 fractions so these horses all run pretty much the same way.

I hope this makes it clear This will be much easier for you once you get more practice with Phase 1. But it will all depend on the pace lines you use to rate the horses.
Also it would have been much easier if you knew the distance was 5.5 furlongs and that horse F was in post 1 !!!

Please check out this post from FTL about Early horses on the inside

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406

[CaptDon100]

Thanks Bill for a very good reply, I just sorry it took so long to get back (been Working), The E/L Diff I want to start recording, Do you record it in your records as E 11 (it is 11.3) and E 9 (it is 8.1) I want to understand the screen
better and add this to my records.
Thanks
Don

[Bill V.]

Hi Don

Your question :

The E/L Diff I want to start recording, Do you record it in your records as E 11 (it is 11.3) and E 9 (it is 8.1) I want to understand the screen
better and add this to my records.
Thanks
Don

It really does not matter. I record it as 11.3 and 8.1 in my records.
But If you record it a 11 and 9 ( or 8) over many races it will average out
to the same number. If you consistently round it up or down.

Here is an example . Here are some Total Energy and Med Energy
readouts from my Parx 8 furlong older male model.

The raw numbers are to the left and the rounded up or down numbers are to the right, either way the average is very close

40036

[CaptDon100]

OK I see, that a lot of help, Thanks Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Don and P-C

Here is Horse F She's Animated.


The race I used for the match up phase 1 race
was from Tampa on April 16

She's Animated ran on opening day at Delaware on Saturday
Here are her pace lines. What happened in that match up race
of horse A B C D E and F was that (F) She's Animated was able to run
a some what easy 89.5 EPR but and because she was loose on the lead see how she was able to run her best LPR 83.5

So now when she ran on Saturday the question becomes will she run
another 89.5 EPR or because she is a early horse will she run in the 90's to get the lead ? Is there another early EPR horse in the race ?
and if so will she drop back down into the 70's for her third fraction ?

40037

[mowens33]

Bill, hope you don’t mind me jumping in but here are my thoughts: this is tough call, she is a 4 year old and looking at her last 3 of 4 for the year she may be just an improving horse? That last race was a 5 point speed rating bump so even if she’s not pushed I would expect that she will revert back to a 76 to 78 LPR. I would use the 2nd line for pace.
Mike

[Bill V.]

So who went wire to wire this time ?

40039

results are way below

While we are at it. The conditions of this race are a waiver claimer

Think about that if you can and what that means

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40038

[mowens33]

Well Animated looks like a improving horse after all, ran a good race against a horse with a much higher seep rating. Good line selection! With my pace line she's more than likely not a contender!!

Waiver claimer long layoff, can't be claimed?

Mike

[Bill V.]

Waiver claimer long layoff, can't be claimed?

Mike

Mike

good work Also

The "waiver" horse has to be running back for the same price/class as its' last race OR higher.

40041

40040

[mowens33]

Bill, Thanks

I enjoyed the She's Animated post!

Mike

[Bill V.]

She's Animated ran again yesterday at Delaware The track was sloppy

This time there was another E7 in the race - Horse 5
She's Animated was in Post 1 so I considered the chance that
she would either break first and get the lead or that the 5 would also try for
the lead and use too much energy early.

# 7 Barbs Beauty is also a early type but being on the outside
Maybe she would hold back and let them go I used line 1 Its a + line but also a trouble line , I figured she would be in position 3 again today
40042
40044
40043

Here is the Phase 1 screen

Look how # 1 has the best EPR rating. Horse 5 is in trouble right here.

40045


Horse 1 She's could go wire to wire. If she fails who will catch her ?
That is the decision. Is it horse 7 or 4.
At this point I would go to thoromation but just using Phase I
I would look at total pace and total energy and energy excretion. Once again thank you to Ted for putting everything in Phase 1 on one screen.

Horse 7 and 4 are tied on TPR but horse 7 has a 2 point advantage on
total energy. As for as energy horse 4 and 7 both use there energy
more early than late If horse 4 had the same readouts but had a higher
lp than ep I would have bet the 4

The phase 1 bets here would be 1 and 7 split 60/40

40046

[Matt D.]

Bill: That was an excellent work up. If you could post more of these and keep explaining your logic, that would be great. I like the way you thought in regards of early vs. late pace. That made sense.