Practice race SA race 5 8.5 3/10/16

[Bill V.]

Post time is 3;00 pst

Please help me out , Lets win this one


Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
6 5 2 8 1

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
#6 90 ( 110.8 )

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 Sus Line 2 sprinter
Horse 2 EP 1
Horse 3 Press Line 1
Horse 4 SP line 2
Horse 5 Press line 3
Horse 6 EP Line 1
Horse 7 Early line 1, turf lines
Horse 8 Sus line 1


Step 4 Who has the top EPR
The 6 has the best EPR 90
Early Presser
Wire to wire
No because of the 1 being a sprinter and 7 turf only

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions
Now will the 5 with a 87 LPR
be able to get there ? .

The top TPR horses
They are 5 4 and 6
Top 3 VDC = 5 2 6

My bets 5 and 4
8 may be too far back with only a 80.5 EPR

40062

[Bill V.]

1 2 3 4

40068

40072

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40071

[Bill V.]

5 6 7 8

40073

40074

40075

40076

[The Pook]

Hi Bill,

I set a 22.7/45.8/110.8 from the 6.
The 7 the turf horse is scratched.
The 1 is a sprinter alright, but not a positionally early horse.
Therefore I think the 6 could wire. The only early type with the fastest splits.
Of the remaining the 5 is all that is left that can handle the pace of the 6.
Track profile says early of which the 4 is a part of but his fractions
pale in comparison to what I expect from the 6.

I would bet 5,6

Pook

[The Pook]

Of course only if the odds are right. With the 7 out, the 6 will probably be bet out of range. The 5 might be okay. But I guess the purpose here is to just pick winners.

Pook

[The Pook]

Anyways no matter who wins the race, your workup and layout above is clear, and explains the principles you are trying to get across very well.

Appreciate the effort and enthusiasm.

Pook

[The Pook]

I hope it's okay that I am doing matchup stuff in your TPR area? I do look at TPR's etc. when I am matching.

Pook

[lone speed]

The trainer of the possible early pace horse of today's race was the same trainer of Toledo Eddie a week earlier with the same early energy distribution.

I'm referring to #6 Mr. Cartagena

40077

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My question will be "Did the last race take too much; chasing the fast pace that Mr. Cartagena might react today?" Did it ran this effort before?? The other highlighted line shows a similar effort as the last paceline.

Looking at the Energy screen at the First Call; we see that it has a big advantage in today's match-up even with the sprinter in the race.

My $0.02 opinion will be #6 Mr.Cartagena with #8 Northern Iowa and #5 Derby Glass giving a vain chase.

Good skills;)

[lone speed]

pp of Mr Cartagena

40081

[Mitch44]

My Lines are :
1. L 4
2. L 2
3. L 2
4. L 2
5. L 3
6. L 2
7. SCR.
8. L 2
My contenders are: 5-6-4-1-3 note: 1 & 3 are only for ex. or tri.
My top 3 are 5-6-4 in that order
Best of luck,
Mitch44

[The Pook]

The 1 did worry the 6 but still he got away with much slower fractions this time and was able to hang on. No value in the win but maybe for you exactor players.

Pook

[Mitch44]

The Pook: Your right about picking winners as everything else springs from winners. I.e. ex., tri, DD.P3's etc. When the odds are low, like you I suspected them to be as the 5 & 6 towered over the field, I look for other opportunities. I wouldn't take less than 5-2
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Thanks Mitch and Pook and Lonespeed

Yes its great to see you matching up with TPR Pook,
Mitch I'm with you The 5 and 6 both were low once the 7 went out the 6 had a big advantage early. That was a nice call on the 1 for the exacta

No bet for me so I just saw the results
LoneSpeed excellent use of the first fraction and the old dos Sartin Program

Price was low but the 6 probably was a good "single"

40082

[Mitch44]

Half the battle is proper wagering and getting out what you can. While I will take 5-2 on a horse I'm a two horse better and the low odds on the # 6 prevented that, I would have to bet 70% on the 6 & 30% on the 5. That and the payoff wasn't worth the risk. Therefore the ex. was the option. I eliminated the 5 & 6 and 6 & 5 combination at 4 minutes to post as they still were too low a payoff. $16 & $14. You can't put say $12 in and make money on these type payoffs. They both ended up going off at $14 I frequently do this and you would be amazed how often the top two horses don't finish one two.
I biggest problem was separating the 5 & 6 as they towered above the field considering everything. I figured the # 1 to route and you can get that from the early late graph that the horse can rate. However in the line I used(L 4) was at 7 F and he was decelerating. Even through he can rate we don't know if he can get the distance and still must prove it, advantage proven routers. We also don't know with this horse where he may start to decelerate or more important how fast. Many times they can hold on for 2 or 3rd. Note: I didn't play the Trifecta as I've gotten away from them as anything can get 3rd. Ex. & DD are easier to hit.
Mitch44