PDA

View Full Version : Phase 1 TPR lessons


Bill V.
03-11-2016, 11:04 AM
The best thing to do is try to get a copy of the Pace Makes The Race
The original version might be hard to find. But the second edition works
too.

40083

Bill V.
03-11-2016, 11:07 AM
The EPR, Who has the best EPR in this race ?

Its horse #3 Lost bus

40084

40085

shoeless
03-11-2016, 03:11 PM
Bill,

Good start to thread


Jeff

Mitch44
03-11-2016, 03:37 PM
This # 4 is a NTL and will be all out. This a tough race overall and the M/L on the # 3 will probably drop.

Mitch44

mowens33
03-12-2016, 10:11 AM
Bill, great to have you teaching again!

Thanks, Mike

CEW
03-14-2016, 08:48 PM
Bill -

The book is still available from Dick Schmidt. I bought sometime in the last year through Amazon and had to laugh when I got a package in the mail directly from Dick with the book, which he autographed.

I have evolved slowly into a TPR player from Synergism over the past 18 months with good results and intend to keep it that way.

Take it easy!

Chuck

Mark
03-15-2016, 04:18 PM
I have always wondered what to do about horse who in their last start had: 1. serious commented trouble making the race useless for evaluation purposes, 2. had one or two races off a layoff particularly one race off up to 120 days or so with good works before and after or 2 races off a substantial layoff generally over 200 days or 3. raced on the wrong surface or at the opposite distance structure?
Any substitute race will be older and not necessarily meet the requirement of the "Last Line".

CEW
03-15-2016, 05:48 PM
Hi Mark -

I can suggest you listen to the Brohamer Lecture Series, which is posted here on Pace and Cap. Go to the "Audio Collection" then find the Brohamer Tape Lectures. If you pore over these seminars he will answer these questions and many more, probably better than anyone else. They have helped me a great deal!

Chuck

Bill V.
03-16-2016, 12:12 AM
Hi Mark and Chuck

The horse should and usually does show something about its current form from the last line.

The nice thing about just looking at the 3 numbers, and the patterns of the horse, is you can see when the last line might fool the public.
Also we can trip handicap,

Here is horse 7 from today's last race a MVR

40128

Here are the last lines for all the horses in the race.
Off the last line the top 5 are 5 2 11 7 1 (step 1 )

40127

Now jumping right out at me is the late energy of line 1
or ,why did it use less energy early ?

The answer is a trouble trip.

40126

It looks like the horse was swung wide . and then ran well to finish with its best ever LPR .

If we forgive this line and move to line 2, I can forgive it because of wrong surface (poly)
So now I go to line 3 . I already know horse 7 rates well off a trouble line
so I am happy to see it rate better off a good line.

The 7 wins at a nice price.

40129

raceman5
03-16-2016, 09:35 AM
Bill totally disagree with your logic here. first of all running wide is not a troubled trip. If you look at the horses last 10 pp's he has run wide in 4 of them. So IMO opinion thats not an excuse to go to the next line. Now if the hors got hammered by another horse and was forced wide you then have an excuse to go to the next line.

Bob

Mitch44
03-16-2016, 11:15 AM
Hi Bill,

I'm with raceman5 that running wide isn't a troubled trip.

But my made problem with L1 is that the horse ran completely sustained which isn't its running style and is an abnormal race for this horse. I don't need to know the reason, just that's its abnormal. Therefore I would use L3 in this example of TPR and stay with its natural running style. On the Early Late screen his red line or indicators varies along with his EPR'S suggesting he is a E/P and therefore will rate. No % Early or Median is available, they are more accurate. Running styles by those parameters could be different from the S1 at top of his chart.

If I were using another later phase or program I would run both L3 & L4 through it because the variant on line 3 is -16 which is extremely fast and not the norm. L4 is also a projection. I'm not aware how the adjustments for variants or track to track are made in TPR here. In the original book for TPR these are done by hand. Without any further information I would trust the TrackMaster variant and go with L3.

Mitch44

Bill V.
03-16-2016, 12:15 PM
Bill totally disagree with your logic here. first of all running wide is not a troubled trip. If you look at the horses last 10 pp's he has run wide in 4 of them. So IMO opinion thats not an excuse to go to the next line. Now if the hors got hammered by another horse and was forced wide you then have an excuse to go to the next line.

Bob

Hi Bob
I agree with Mitch, whether or not we think line 1 is a trouble trip,
(I do ) The horse changed its normal running pattern, I feel it was because of being forced wide.

I have highlighted the phase 1 numbers

40130

To me the horse has no problem turning in 80 + EPR'S in every race, Yet
in line one it runs only a 77EPR, It rebounds to finish with its best ever LPR
87 I want to select a + paceline that is recent and I think line 1 is aberrant
Line 2 is excused, so its either line 3 or 4 for me.

Thanks
Bill
.

raceman5
03-16-2016, 12:24 PM
Will agree with you on that. Line 1 is differently a aberrant pace line so it does make sense to go beyond Line 1.

Mark
03-17-2016, 03:29 PM
Thanks Bill,
I was very interested in your approach. I have been working a lot of races looking at the top 5 last line TPR. In all the years I never looked at this. It is amazing the number of races the winner is included. The place horse is there it seems at least 50% of the time. I am trying to reconcile this with Bradshaw's FPLR horse and when found jumping into the pps and finding his best ever. As Richie said "make him as fast as you can". However, the temptation is to evaluate the other horses and give them better lines more or less based on that early, 1st fraction, pace of race. And the results are not as good.
Horses that run atypical last races with an excuse deserve the opportunity to be evaluated off a typical performance. Taking horses wide on the final turn as chronicled by Jim Lehane in "Calibration Handicapping" is a valid method of conditioning not just a troubled trip especially when it is not habitual behavior of a slow Sustained horse. Your example horse had shipped and was coming off a bit of a freshening so in that context, and the fact that his normal running style was somewhat early, the horse had speed, made it perfectly excusable in my opinion.
I can see you have flexibility in your line selection and not bound to that last race. But I wanted to hear it from you!!! Thanks, I appreciate the response and example. This is a very good thread and refresher course.

CEW
03-17-2016, 07:34 PM
Mark -

I am in the same camp as you when you wrote that "in all these years I never looked at this (the top 5 - last line TPRs). I've been working my way into TPRs over the last year to a year and a half with a great amount of success. I dismissed them for whatever reason up till then.

On long commutes to work over the winter a year ago, I started listening to Tom Hambleton's lectures on TPRs and something told me to try them. So I wrote up spreadsheet and have pretty well ironed out the adjustments to my satisfaction.

Regards!

Chuck

MikeB
04-21-2016, 01:29 PM
I have always wondered what to do about horse who in their last start had: 1. serious commented trouble making the race useless for evaluation purposes, 2. had one or two races off a layoff particularly one race off up to 120 days or so with good works before and after or 2 races off a substantial layoff generally over 200 days or 3. raced on the wrong surface or at the opposite distance structure?
Any substitute race will be older and not necessarily meet the requirement of the "Last Line".

In the Pacelines Manual, Doc says always use the last line unless there is a valid excuse. He then lists a number of valid excuses, including trouble line, wrong surface or distance, off track, etc.

He also says you can expand the definition of "last line", such as last line before trouble line(s), last line at comparable distance/surface/class, etc. This is the "last line" concept that I use.

In other words, "It depends". ;)

He also says that if a horse showed signs of improving form in the last race (good early speed or ran well against a very fast pace), you can go back to a race that shows what the horse is capable of when in condition. This is kind of blurring the difference between pace line and power line.

Mark
04-21-2016, 02:27 PM
Am about to drive to the airport and fly to Oakland where my long time handicapping partner will pick me up and we will spend 3 grand days at his home in the Berkeley Hills handicapping. Will even have time to take in a Giant game. Met him in a Tom Hambleton TPR in Las Vegas in 1993.
It was refreshing to spend a week or two working TPR and following Bill V along on his excellent threads, but I am a Matcher and starting the analysis at the 2nd Call ignores some of most important aspects of Jim Bradshaw's approach, it seems to me. How does the horse normally break? Does he go forward from his break position? Where does he want to be at the 1st Call as evidenced by his best efforts and wins. No one talks about it much but Visual Running Style was all Jim's. The whole concept of horse psychology, need to lead, fighter, won't pass horses in the stretch etc was popularized by "The Hat" and Richie P in his many threads on the Hat Check Blog. So while it was a fun retrospective to revisit the old TPR days, I am firmly back to my course.
"The Hat" recommended looking through the horse's complete PPs and find the race where he finished up close or won against the fastest early pace. That isn't exactly the "Last Line". This works best in a "Paceless" race where you can't project the early pace. With these lines selected, you then have to review each horse to determine if you can use that line particularly if it is deep in the pps. Ask yourself 3 questions: 1) Is he still a horse? 2) Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3) If Early, can he still get on top of his fractions? Your answers will determine whether you accept the line. I was looking at Turf lines last evening. Worked all of them. The last one exemplifies my point:
40454
40455
40456
40457
I ask you where you would be taking the "Last line, except..."
This was not a field of world beaters and don't we really want to know how fast an Early Pace a horse can be successful against? Isn't that what horse racing comes down to? Some will say, "Oh, she's off a 103 day freshening with only one workout!" This would be an immediate elimination for FTL. But what is it about layoffs that we should be so scared of. Think about it? The connections feel strongly about their horse that they will keep it in the barn or take it to the ranch and give it time and exercise to recover whatever is wrong. It is Horsey R & R!! Most tracks require a public workout if the horse has not raced in 60 days so this trainer satisfied that requirement, but hypothetically if he has his horse sharp off work at the farm do you think he will tip the betting word by working a bullet? I found out there are swimming pools available in the Mountaineer area so that when they return to racing after the winter break, those trainers with access to the pools win tons of races and before you can get on his hot streak, the public starts pounding his horses at the windows. So what is wrong with this horse.
She is sustained and has a win over the track and at the distance within 6 months, 3 of those months at the farm. in a field of EPs and P horses all of which are rated lower on BL/BL why should this horse run well at 22/1?
Maybe you want to set a small bank aside and play these kinds of horses. Pick Bradshaw's POWER LINE as your paceline and eliminate those that fail to answer his questions correctly. Doesn't take many of these to make a week or month!

Bill V.
04-21-2016, 07:02 PM
Hi Mark. I wish I could join you up in SF for that Giants game and some TPR working,
I am heading up north on the 5 from shakytown,
I will be passing by Frisco tonight but I can not stop. I have to be in Portland Or, asap

I look forward to looking over your race
Great work up ,
Bill

oswaldrha
04-21-2016, 10:12 PM
Holy ****ing Godzilla.
One horse from the 5th paceline back, two horses from the 7th paceline back, one horse from the 8th paceline back, two horses from the 9th paceline back, and one horse from the 10th paceline back?
You, Sir, possess the sort of courage a mere mortal like myself can only dream of. If I had a Michael Pizzolla Wayback Machine Award to grant you, I would.
(Perhaps I can purchase some sort of Doctor Who tchotchke and make one for you)

Bill V.
04-21-2016, 11:38 PM
Holy ****ing Godzilla.
One horse from the 5th paceline back, two horses from the 7th paceline back, one horse from the 8th paceline back, two horses from the 9th paceline back, and one horse from the 10th paceline back?
You, Sir, possess the sort of courage a mere mortal like myself can only dream of. If I had a Michael Pizzolla Wayback Machine Award to grant you, I would.
(Perhaps I can purchase some sort of Doctor Who tchotchke and make one for you)

Hello oswaldrha and Mark

Okay I am looking at the race.

Here are the Phase 1 readouts from the last line
This is always step 1 in Phase 1 .
Looking at every horses last line , I can see that of the top 5 TPR horse only
the 4 horse comes with a comparable Turf route line
and that is from over a 200 day layoff I believe Doc's cut off was 189 days
I also see TPRs between 175 and 169 so Like Mark said these are not world beaters
anyway here are the phase 1 read outs last line

40460

Bill V.
04-22-2016, 12:28 AM
My workup

Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
3 8 14 5 4

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
Fulcrum horse # 1 83 EPR

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 EP Line 1 + race no reason to go past it
Horse 2 Sus Line 2 Off 103 day Line 2 Excuse line 1 Wrong surface
Horse 3 Press Line 2 is not a plus line but it is the only recent turf route
Horse 4 Sus Off 222 days This is too long a layoff Doc's cut ooff is 189 days
Horse 5 Sus No line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 6 EP Line 2 Excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 7 Sus Line 1 Nice effort in line 1 after a long layoffat 9 furlongs Now comes back again after 49 days ?
Line 4 is the same race as today and it only earned a 161TPR
Horse 8 EP No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 9 SP Don't like to use 7.5 lines Only because I can't get past line 1 This horse shows no + races within 90 days
routing
Horse 10 Early No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 11 SP No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 12 EP Line 2 excuse line 1 Too high class
Horse 13 Presser No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 14 Sus No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days

Now My top 5 TPR horses
12, 4 7 6 2


Step 4 Who has the top EPR

The 6 has the best EPR 85
Early Presser
Can It go wire to
wire = against the horses with pace lines yes it could ,


The top TPR horses
They are 12 4 7-6 tie
Top 3 VDC = 12 7 2


My bets The 6 beats the 1 in EPR The 7 is a question mark because of the distance and poor effort in line 4 12 Is The best LPR and TPR
The 4 has too long a layoff The 2 is my OTE horse and its top 3 VDC
with so many question marks i would probably pass
If I had to bet i would look OTE

my bets 12 and 2

40461

gl45
04-22-2016, 03:57 PM
Bill,
Mark did mention the Power Line, I have 3 races that I'm not betting because I'm having probs in find the Power Line, maybe you can figure these race using your method. No rush.

GP 4-22..... races 7-8-9

Lt1
04-22-2016, 07:05 PM
In follow up #81 page 1 of the publishers desk Doc does away with the always use line 1 and expands to the best of thee last 3 at a comparable dist. and surface etc. That's the way I learned it when I joined in 1990. I've been doing it like that since.
Tim

Bill V.
04-22-2016, 08:47 PM
That is true, and you are not alone if you are using Doc's updated guidelines of the best adjusted trackmaster speed ratings at a comparable distance surface and competition level , There are many others out there winning following Doc's guidelines
Do you have the card for this race

Lt1
04-22-2016, 09:50 PM
Hi Bill. No I don't I'm a little late to the party.

Bill V.
04-22-2016, 09:56 PM
That is okay

Do you use the auto line selector or do you decide which is the best of the last 3 speed ratings by eye?.

Mark
04-23-2016, 04:48 AM
I have had a full day and only handicapped a few races for tomorrow so I will explain how to do this one race, A PACELESS RACE. No horse in here has shown that they are dedicated E horses so we will pick a POWER LINE for each horse and handicap from there. Set up the race with each horse having his last line selected. Use the automatic paceline selection button. Now go to the #1 horse. Check the ITM Contender box. We want to check each paceline for the horse. If you double click on the far left box above the check boxes for line selection, they will all be checked. Now click on the Analysis tab, this is what you should have:
40464
Since we are on the Original Screen we can see all the pacelines as they appear in the Racing Form. Look at each line and eliminate any line with a finish position that isn't up close or a win. It is tempting to make this horse an E or EP, but she has only won as a Presser and it appears they have begun to take her back because she doesn't win running on the lead. I will be very generous with these horses and give them a close finish with 5 beaten lengths particular if it was against a faster early pace.
40466
Now let's find the fastest early pace with an acceptable finish by clicking on Velocity POR tab. You can see that the last race is the horses POWER LINE as it ran against the fastest F1 and had the best SC. You want to select this line for the horse so go back to the Original Screen and check the box for this line.
When you check the any single line the horse is elevated into the Win contender area. Now repeat these steps. Don't worry if the line is the 2nfd or 5th or 10th. Just select the line that has the acceptable finish with the fastest early pace which will usually pop to the top when you click on the Velocity POR tab. So here we are:
40467
You now have your pacelines and you need to confirm that the horse is capable of delivering them today by answering the following 3 questions:
1). Is he still a horse?, 2). Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3). Can he still get on top of his fractions? These are Jim Bradshaw's questions as relayed to us in the Hat Check Blog. Figure them out! Ok. Let's say you accept them all. Now let's do a little handicapping. Click on the Adjusted tab:
40468
Who are going to be your contenders? Who has run the best against the fastest early pace? Who will be closest to the leader, factoring the pace of the race. I don't like to use the 7.5f GP race for pacelines because they have a run up distance of 264ft. So the early fractions are way to fast. they break from the gate and run 264ft before they break the first timer beam. But you use what you have. From the 1st Call adjusted numbers it appears the the 1st Call will be 48 and some change, the 2nd Call 1:12 and change. Who has competed successfully against these fractions? The #1, #2, #3. Don't get sucked in a horse like #5. He is what you call a "Suck Along Horse" At no time in the race did he make any moves or impact the race. The horses came back to him. If he is 5.6 lengths back of a 1:13.3, what is he going to be today behind a 1:12.2 or 3. Now look at the tandems. in the last 61 days the #1 has beaten the #6 and #7. The #2 has beaten the #3, #5 and #6.
So I'm here:
40469
So id you bet two you have the winner. But look at the Segment and BL/BL screens. Set this race up on your own computer and work it and see what you get. Couple things: When selecting POWER LINES use the ones on today's surface and distance structure over other higher ranked in this dirt lines. Use your common sense! Always default to what is going on today.
Secondly, this is a great example of why the Final Fraction is the least predictive of the fractions. The 3rd fraction is a effect or result of what has happened in the first 2!!! Big 3rd fraction horses are normally slow horses, always prefer earlier running horses. Horses don't run in the back by choice, they are back there because they are slow. Early and Presser horses will always beat Sustained horses except if they run too fast early which is the result of pace pressure on the lead. Or it is a conformation or genetic thing. They're Quarter horses. I should throw injury in there too.
If I have time tomorrow I'll do one of the others.

Bill V.
04-23-2016, 08:18 AM
Hi GL45 and Mark

Since mark did race 7 I will look at race 8
GL45 sorry but this race would be a pass for me
Here are the conditions

40470

I don't have lines for almost all the horses I don't use power lines per Richie and Hat but I do use PLUS races within 90 days almost always
This race is a pretty good race for 3 year old Fillys
They are still developing and many are running for the first time as 3 year olds
So we don't really know what they can do in phase 1 we only see them at age 2

Anyway I had the best of last 3 preceptor auto line selector activated , So
I checked what line it picked but I changed a couple of lines always starting with line 1 .

BL3 Per = Best of the last 3 comparable via preceptor

My look
Race 8 6 furlongs OC 75 N1-X 3 year old fillys

Horse 1 No line BL3 Per picked line 1 but its 230 days ago

Horse 2 EP BL3 Per picked line 1. I agree 36 days

Horse 3 EP BL3 Per picked line 3 I will go with line 2 Its a + line and 77 days ago I excused line 1 - wrong surface

Horse 4 Press BL3 Per picked line 2 I agree 42 days I excused line 1 - wrong surface

Horse 5 Press BL3 Per picked line 3 No line for me
off 202 days

Horse 6 Press BL3 Per picked line 3 No line for me
no + races within 90 days at todays distance or surface

Horse 7 EP BL3 Per picked line 1 No line for me
off 251 days has only run as a 2 year old

Horse 8 EP BL3 Per picked line 1 No line for me
no + races within 90 days at today's distance or surface

So I am only left with 3 horses

40471

I will go check the results

Bill V.
04-23-2016, 08:29 AM
Horse 6 wins I could have stayed with the BL3 Per and used line 3
but Since I passed so many other horse by this time I want to stay consistent

This is my interpretation of "power lines " I favor recent plus lines


40472

40473

gl45
04-23-2016, 08:49 AM
Mark, Bill,
Thank you

Lt1
04-23-2016, 08:56 AM
Bill I use the auto select but check to see if I agree with line chosen.
Tim

Bill V.
04-23-2016, 09:04 AM
In my steps of Phase 1
The top 5 TPR off the last line
5 3 2 4 6
fulcrum horse # 2 92 EPR

Horse 1 no line 230 day
Horse 2 Line 1
Horse 3 Line 2 excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 4 Line 2 excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 5 No line 202 days
Horse 6 Line 3 excuse line 1 wrong distance 7 furlongs 71 LPR and line 2 wrong surface
Horse 7 No line 251 days
Horse 8 Line 1 but only a 167 TPR-good luck lady

Best EPR = #4 93
Can it go wire to wire It does own the 0.0 in
the first two segments but horse 1 has a better epr
98 and i dont have a line for horse 1
horse 6 shows a 97 EPR in line 1

Best TPR
6 4 3
Best VDC
6 3 2

My bets would have been 6 and 3

40474

Bill V.
04-23-2016, 09:07 AM
Bill I use the auto select but check to see if I agree with line chosen.
Tim

Thanks Tim So would you have stayed with line 3 for horse 6 ?

Bill

40475

Lt1
04-23-2016, 09:49 AM
Bill since line 2 was a turf race I would have also looked at line 4 unless that track was sealed. Since this race is for 3 yr olds only I would not be concerned that l4 was a 2yr old race. We still are dealing with young 3 yr olds. I don't limit myself to the last 90 days if I judge the horse to be in form. In l1 the horse was up close at the 2nd call of a longer race and was in the money in l2 against better so I accept his form and go back. If the program still preferred l3 then that's what I would use.
Tim

Lt1
04-23-2016, 10:00 AM
Mark I see that seem to downplay the 3rd fraction. As Jimmy use to tell me Tim they don't pay for whose in front at the 2nd call. Also he devoted a chapter in his book to balancing the 3rd fraction. I model all the tracks I play and note that many turf races are won by horses with strong 3rd fractions. Also at a track like MVR most races at all distances are won by off the pace horses with good 3rd fractions. Yes I do know how much of a race is run by the 2nd call at each dist. but I also know the minimum 3rd fraction needed to win at that dist at that track. I will agree that earlier running horses have a leg up but believe that the 3rd fraction must still be checked.
Tim

Mark
04-24-2016, 06:39 AM
The Final Fraction is the least predictive of the 3 because it can not win by itself. However, the factor SP is the most predictive for turf racing in a recent study at another Software site. SP is defined as (EP+FR3)/2 if I remember correctly. In other words, where is the horse positionally in the race prior to the FR3. FR3 has to be viewed in context. How many times to you see a horse or horses closing in the stretch, visually running faster than all the rest getting up for 4th or 5th. They often come into view as the camera pans the winner and those battling for the lead at the wire. These horses will have the best FR3 in the race but unless that is combined with enough Early Pace to obtain a contentious position at the 2nd call, the horse will never cash a ticket. This is all Incremental Velocity stuff and EXDC of Running Styles. Horses slow into stride or that just plain lack early speed once they do reach their highest velocities then decelerate more slowly. That's what your are seeing in the late stretch. The difference in the rates of deceleration is what creates this optical illusion. "The Hat's" 2 for 1 theory is specifically valid with Early and Presser horses that a attempting to take the lead or stay close up to the lead. By this exertion, running faster or somewhat slower in the 1st fraction deceleration in the Final Fraction is increased or reduced.

Lt1
04-24-2016, 09:27 AM
Thanks Mark. I am well aware of the illusion of horses appearing to run faster then tiring front runners. I know that 1 run horses either early or late win few races[except for the perfect storm scenario ]. I was referring to ep/sp types of horses. We know or should that and horse capable of running 2 good fractions is a threat to win the race. I keep both a track model and profile and find them very useful in my selection process. I guess what I'm saying is that one can be a consistent winner no matter what approach they take with the methodology provided they do the work.
Tim

Mark
04-25-2016, 10:16 AM
Racing is all about fast horses. Early horses are both quick and fast. Some more sustained horses can become fast relative to the running of their race when the front end decelerates because of excessive contention during the early running of the race. However, it is the handicapper's challenge to identify those situations when the front end combat will have that effect and provide the opportunity for the more sustained runner, whether P, SP or S to use their relative speed to overcome the deficit in ground loss early in the race.

Bill V.
04-25-2016, 11:34 AM
In phase 1 it is so important to properly identify the early runners , if one early has a advantage over the field all the other early runners now are early pressers.
And pressers, if they are need the lead early now they are out.
Now look at the EPR ratings .Can the fast Early go wire to wire? How do you know ? Look at its LPR
Is it.equal or near the pressers lot. if so it can go wire to wire.
Based on the tpr leaders ,
Early , Early Pressers and Pressers with close enough EPR
ratings are much better bets than sustained. runners.
It is very important to ask this about sustained horses.
How far back will they be in today's race ?
Every point of EPR equals 1 beaten length,
So a sustained horse better be close to the top EPR horses. In both lengths and position , Is your sustained horse just too slow to win against today's expected EPR..
Bill

Mitch44
04-25-2016, 03:29 PM
Its a horses natural instinct to chase speed. All races have to be put into context. Just because a horse is in the lead at say the S C and 75 % of the race is over doesn't mean he can win. It depends on how fast he decelerates and how fast the other horses accelerates.

Each race is different however generally the longer a horse holds its speed the better the horse is, higher class horses run better 3rd Fr . regardless of running style and decelerate the least to include E horses. P,SP & S types win races everyday and SP & S types generally pay higher mutual. Some horses that run S are totally immune to early pace because they run much later therefore the pace doesn't effect them as it does other E & Ep types.

A classic example of this was Tenpin's recent win at TB on 12 Mar.16,10th, at 9F:
109.08( SC 66.6666 % over -14 lg.'s) mile 134.08( 88.8888% over -5 lg.'s) finish won, made it up. of course its acceleration wasn't the only factor so was the POR horse who after a blazing 6F began to decelerate and ended up 2nd but still had the lead after 8F by 5 lg. Hit a brick wall after the mile. But the winner was also flying.

Its about context and EPR, LPR, and CPR / TPR all have to be considered in TPR. Of course we have other tools in later programs and even advance concepts in TPR to help in decision making.

Mitch44

mick
07-01-2016, 11:40 AM
This pertains to Bill V's original post in this thread. There are original copies of 'Pace Makes the Race' on amazon.com, although they are somewhat pricey. Having never read the original, I've ordered a copy for my ever expanding library of Sartin literature.

http://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Qj%2BauWhWL._SY373_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

Bill V.
07-03-2016, 09:57 AM
I feel the original hardbound book is worth the price

I feel the other book is like reading all 88 follow ups
but they all are missing pages

Things were taken out of the original book, Not because they did not work
Things were taken out because of legal issues between 4 authors
and egos

Bill