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MikeB
03-13-2016, 02:17 PM
Here are a couple of very good threads on the topic of TPR, by a poster who didn't seem to stick around very long.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5613

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5645

lone speed
03-13-2016, 03:51 PM
The author of the two threads were penned by Sam Wada. Doc Sartin named Factor W after Sam Wada who I believed came up with the computation. I had the pleasure of hearing his presentations in some Sartin seminars, many years ago.

I have these two threads saved under my favorites as one of those great threads on this site.

I enjoyed Wada's approach in analyzing each contender in a race and his use of the Early/Late graph. But I enjoyed his level of confidence when he saw a "match-up advantage" in a specific race and his use of a "prime bet" when the occasion arose.

Yes, there are several posters who have posted great threads in their limited contribution but they provide great and compelling insights in our shared endeavors. :cool:

1retired
09-18-2021, 07:30 AM
Lone Speed

I agree with you on Sam Wada's posts. They really grqabbed my attention. I'm a releative newbie and would benefit greatly from threads like these. Could you recall any other really great threads.

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ranchwest
09-18-2021, 08:46 PM
Check out race 6 at CD (9/18/21). My lines had 2 and 7 with relatively large E/L numbers. The payoffs were big.

1retired
09-19-2021, 09:15 PM
Ranchwest

I'm a newbie and I don't have RDSS so I can't look up the race and run it on RDSS. If I had it I would. Can you tell hme what the differences were. I'm trying to make a response to Lueylump's post on the iImportance of the E/L graph. Right now, I don't see a lot of interest in the website in following up on Lueylump's post on the angle of big wins at long odds on such horses. I'm working on developing a response to his post to Ted Craven and/or everyone else showing as many examples as possible. Your example would be a big helop. Right now besides the examples that leuylump shows, I have about 5 more from surfing the website. I think it would be a goood spot play angle for all of us to have. Can you help me out with your information? I'm looking up the race now on Equibase so I will have that but I won't have the numbers.

Thanks
1 Retired

ae gi

ranchwest
09-19-2021, 11:49 PM
Ranchwest

I'm a newbie and I don't have RDSS so I can't look up the race and run it on RDSS. If I had it I would. Can you tell hme what the differences were. I'm trying to make a response to Lueylump's post on the iImportance of the E/L graph. Right now, I don't see a lot of interest in the website in following up on Lueylump's post on the angle of big wins at long odds on such horses. I'm working on developing a response to his post to Ted Craven and/or everyone else showing as many examples as possible. Your example would be a big helop. Right now besides the examples that leuylump shows, I have about 5 more from surfing the website. I think it would be a goood spot play angle for all of us to have. Can you help me out with your information? I'm looking up the race now on Equibase so I will have that but I won't have the numbers.

Thanks
1 Retired

ae gi
I don't have RDSS, at least not yet. I use my own personal program.

My lines:
1) 2
2) 1
3) 3
4) 2
5) Scratch
6) 2
7) 3
8) 1
9) 4
10) 2
11) 1
12) 1
13) 3
14) Scratch

So, my high E/L horses were: 2 1 7 10 in that order. I will let you do your own analysis. But here is the order of finish:

7 (13/1)
9 (9.3/1)
2 (9.6/1)

Ex: 228.20 (2.00)
Tri: 973.70 (.50)

My point here is that I have 7 and 2 rating very poorly in TE and neither were Prime Power Top 5, yet their high E/L numbers are how it is possible to hit this large tri if you can get the 9.

Hope this helps.

1retired
09-20-2021, 12:00 PM
Ranchwest

Thanks for the reply. I found from lueylump (SAM Wada), that when 1 horse has Early/Late Difference numbers of greater than 20, and their Early number is at least 5 greater than any other Early number (EPR), they can outrun their Total OPace Rating anbd Total Energy Number when their are non-competitive with all of the other horses in the race and win the race. I'm just looking to start an thread on this that will be hlelpful to all members so. that we can get more lwinning longshots. I probably won't gbe getting another computer until ChchirisMtnas as well as an RDSS subscription. IRight now I have an Apple that is on its very last legs. I can't even backspace to correct typo errors.

I've seen a couple more posts from FTL which identified similar longshots with these same characteristics and just want to flesh out the known information with everyone so that this angle becomes more obvious.

It's frustrating but I'll live with it till Christmas.

1 retired,

raceman5
09-20-2021, 02:42 PM
think this could be a great discussion with examples.

Bob

Ted Craven
09-20-2021, 02:57 PM
Here's that Race 6 CD 9/18. Using RDSS Defaults including Paceline selection:

Only change I think from Ranchwest lines is #1 horse, RDSS used line 1 (more recent, faster PoR, still good finish).

This gives E/L Diff Early ranked as 2/7/10. #9 horse is ranked 2nd on Rx.
FWIW, the #2 and #9 were 2nd and 3rd ranked ML in this field of Maiden Claimer 30K, the #2 2nd CR+ horse behind favourite. I did not retrieve the ProtfitLine or BRIS Prime Power ratings before they were unavailable.

49929

49930

49928

Ted Craven
09-20-2021, 03:00 PM
BTW - the name behind member lueylump is/was not Sam Wada. I corresponded with him several times and knew the identity on his TrackMaster account. Not sure why Bill V thought that. Still, a very erudite user of the Sartin Methodology tools!

Ted

raceman5
09-20-2021, 03:01 PM
what I mean about examples Ranch? On this board, more times than none will someone come thru.

ranchwest
09-20-2021, 03:57 PM
Ted, the top 5 prime were 14,1,4,9,6, but the 14 remained as AE, so the 7 was the #5 prime horse remaining. Sorry, I missed seeing that.

1retired
09-21-2021, 07:16 AM
It's not a great example race since the E/L difference between the ltop horse and the next highest EPR horse was only about 12. But the E/L difference between the top horse and all other horses was over 20, and the horse finished third and paid 6.60 to show..

I have two other races that are even better examples of this angle. They both involve posts by FTL.

The first post is
"TP Race 3 & Lasix" by FTL on 1/27/2013l
This was an 8.5f Poly race for 5000C FM N2L. The winner (Prom Theme) paid $29.80 going off at 13.9-1. Prom Theme had an E/L difference of greater than 20 over every other horse in the race.

The second post is
"Bill V f goes the Extra Mile" by FTL on 1/19/20130
This was an 8f Dirt race for 16,000C 4+ N3-L on Jan 14, 2013. The winner (Foreign Review) won and paid #16.60 goi;ng off at 7.3 to 1. He had an E/L stick of +19 and the next closest horse had an E/L difference of -2, for a e difference between the 2 horses of 21.

I apoligize but I haven't learned how to make attachments or I would have shown both of these post threads on this email so that you can see exactly what I am saying. I think they at least show that this angle is worth further investigation, particularly since both involve route races which are more difficult

to go wire to wire in IMO.

1 retired





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1retired
09-21-2021, 07:24 AM
Ted

Thanks for showing the CH Downs race with all the readouts, etfc . I'm very aware that not having RDSS places me at a big disadvantage on the site compared to other members.

I hope that my last post goes a little ways in my offering a payback for all the valuable info I have learned from surfing this site. Like I said earlier, about Christmas I'll be buying RDSS and hope to make more conbributions and become a consistent winner.

1 retired

Ted Craven
09-22-2021, 05:21 PM
We all benefit from you resurrecting older posts (though still current techniques) for renewed discussion.

If you let me know the LINK to those older discussions with screenshots from For The Lead's posts, I will add them to illustrate your previous example. To get the link, in the Post # in the upper right corner of each post, right-click and choose the Copy Link menu pop-up menu option. See the example below:

49931

Go to the page you were looking at with the FTL examples and get the link in the same way. Then I will know where it is and make a reference here to it. If needed, also find that race in the Example Database section for all the Teaching Example races.

Ted

1retired
09-23-2021, 09:30 AM
Ted

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I think it gives you everything you need + the data from the (7) seven races. ba

Here's the data table in Excel attached49932.

I may be getting way ahead of myself but mu gut instinct tells me that at some point in the near future I think this angle may turn out to be quite profitable. If that turns out to be the case, you may want to think about keeping everyone in the loop but make all the posts private so that the whales don't get wind of it.

1retired
09-23-2021, 09:39 AM
You already have Ranchwest's post. The other six posts were from

Kahunab on 4/7/09 titled Anybody Else Get Number's Blind
Lueylump on 5/13/19 titled. As Easy as 123. A
Lueylump on 5/4/09 titled Importance of Early/Late Graph
FTL on 1/27/13 titled TP Race 3
FTL on 1/19/13 titled Bill V goes ...

I'll have to get back to you on the Mine That Bird Ky DERBY post.

1 retired
(Dave)

1retired
09-23-2021, 01:50 PM
I'd like to make some comments about Ranchwest's post on the 6th Race at CHD on 9/18/21, a 7F for 25,000mClmg FM.

There are only 2 positive comments about the 3rd place finisher, Itsy Bitsy Betsy. First, She had the highest/fastest running style in the race E8, so she would be expected to take the early lead. Second, she had the highest E/L difference in the race, 24.3. The next highest was the eventual winner, Shania with an E/L difference of 12.8. The two next hgihest were 8.6 and then 7.8 and then down to 4.3. Usually, in these kind of races where there iss an E/L difference dominant horse, that horse also has the highest EPR rating. Itsy Bitsy Betty was 5th with an EPR of 87. The top EPR horse in the race had a 90.
She was not in the top 5 in terms of CSR or VDC or BL/.BL. She had the lowest TPR in the race by 25 and the lowest Total Energy by 6.6. This horse led until the stretch and finished third to the eventual winner by 1/2 length. i

If this race is typical, my takeaway from this is that these big E/L difference horses will carry their speed further than you would ordinarily expect asnd will finish in the money if not win the race in question outright.

The eventual winner, Shania, has the same argument as Itsy Bitsy Betsy to a lesser degree. Also, it was only 0.5 shy of having the highest EPR in the race and it's TPR was mhhch much better. than Itsy's. She would be expected to run near the front end of the race. Her Total Energy was only 2 points less than the top rated horse.

Finally, the eventual 2nd place horse, Peyton's College, was the second best CSR horse and the 3rd best VDC and BL/BL horse. Using the traditional approach for the 2nd place horse and the E/L difference appraoch for the 1st and 3rd place horses, the exacta and trifecta were gettable. The exacta paid
$228,20 and the trifecta paid $973.70.

Shania, at odds of 13-1 paid $28.00 to win. Peyton's College, at odds of 9,3-1 paid $7.6o to place and Itsy Bitsy Betsy, at odds of 9.6-1 paid $6.80 to show.

I would appreciate any comments, suggestions or well meant criticisms.

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j

Ted Craven
09-23-2021, 07:49 PM
You already have Ranchwest's post. The other six posts were from

Kahunab on 4/7/09 titled Anybody Else Get Number's Blind
Lueylump on 5/13/19 titled. As Easy as 123. A
Lueylump on 5/4/09 titled Importance of Early/Late Graph
FTL on 1/27/13 titled TP Race 3
FTL on 1/19/13 titled Bill V goes ...

I'll have to get back to you on the Mine That Bird Ky DERBY post.

1 retired
(Dave)


Thanks Dave. I don't feel like searching for those posts to find the images to re-post here. I gave the method in my previous post to find the direct LINKs to the posts. If anyone feels like doing that, I can post the images for further discussion.

Ted

1retired
09-24-2021, 12:31 PM
From previous posts, I have started a spot play angle based on two posts from Lueylump in 2009 regarding the Early/Late Difference Graph. Luey postulated in his posts that a horse with an Early/Late Difference that was significantly greater than the E/L difference of all of the other horses in the race, had a significant advantage over those horses. It could (1) immediately go to the lead, relax and maintain that lead to the wire. or almost maintain it and still finish in the moneyl. (2) tThe second option it could take was to run along with the "herd" and then make an explosive burst on the far turn or in the stretch to win the race. I ask that you carefully read every word of both Luey's posts "Importance of the E/L Difference Graph" and "As Easy as 1,2,3".

No specific E?/L difference number was identified by Luey. I have provisionally established my limit as AT LEAST 10. Every time I have identified a horse meeting this criteria I have placed it in the databsse. So far, I have; not identified any horse meeting this criteria that has not at least finished Show (once) or Place (once). All of the other 6 horses identified have won at big prices and were part of exactas and trifectas on the order of 100s and 1000sx of dollars. The winning odds on these 8 horses goes from 7.3 toi - to 50.6-1.
3

Other factors that I am monitoring but have not established limits for, so far, are EPR Diff, TOtal Pace Rating, Total Energy, Running Stylpe, and ESP.(

Three sprint races have been identified and 5 route races. So far, no turf races have been identified but I am sure that they are there and willb be found.

The lowesgt level of race was a 5000 cliaming race at TP. The highest level races identified were a Grade 2 Handicap at HOL and Mine That Bird's Ky Derby and Plalrace Malice's Belmont Stakes. So, this method is widely applicable up and down the class ladder but not at the minimal levels that you will see at MNR, CT, TDN and FL and other lower level tracks. However, I think that you will find winners at those tracks as well.

What makes this angle so great is that a winning horse will often have less and often significantly less numbers in factors such as TPR and Total Energy and, as well, often not have top 5 numbers in VDC, CSR, BPP, PL and BL/BL. Those factors and numbers get approx, 90% of all winners. This angle identifies longshot horses that figure, ACCORDING TO THIOS ANGLE from the 10% remaining horses. These winners also get some tremendous exactas and trifectas and, by extension, will also help get large DDs, and Pick 3,4,5, 6s.

The Excel spreadsheet with the data for the 8 horses identified so far ais attached just below this sentence, I hope. It may be at the end of the document. Im' not very good at attachments.

As soon as I learn how, I will be attaching the relevant workup portion of these 8 races to my next email.

For those interested in seeing the posts and the data right now, here are the relevant posts and post #'s

A Couple of old threads on TPR - Post #9 on/about 9/18/21 by ?
TP Race 3 and Lasix - Post #2 on/about 1/27/13 by FTL
Bill V Goes the Extra Mile. - POst #1 on/about 1/14/13 by FTL
Importance of the Earluy/Late
Difference Graph - Post # 4 on/about 5/12/09 by Lueylump
As East as 1,2,3 - Post #1 on/about 5/9/09 by Lueylump
Anybody Else Ever Get
"Numbers Blind" - Post #1 on/abut 4/1/09 by Kahunab
As Easy as 1,2,3 - Post #4 on/about 5/9/09 by Lueylump
Dissecting the Ky Derby
Paceline - Post #2 on/about 6/8/13 by Lone Speed

Right now this data is unbelievably good, in fact, too good. There are no losers. That is not reality. There are losers when using this angle and I/ we need to find them so that we can determine how profitable this angle is in reality, if at all. I think it will be but I need more data to determine that. I will be handicapping more races and monitoring this website but I don't have RDSS so I won't be really able to uncover new winners in races myself. I have a very lold Apple computer on its last legs. Apple computers are not conducive to RDSS and it costs some money to adapt them. I don't have a lot of money right now. I will have at Christmas when I can buy a new compulter and an RDSS subscription. From then on I'll be handicapping my own races using RDSS. pI ask that you help me out in this regard a nd notify me when you find new races fitting this category of longshot, whether it wins, places in the money or not. I'll report back to you with all of the new data that I get.

Spome of you may feel tthat you are or will be doing all the work and I'll be getting some benefit from you work but not contributingg. So, be it. I'm using all the tools that I have at this time to do what I can in this regard. I'm doing the initial work here and will contribute as much as I can until Christmas with what I have. The uncovering of new winning angles and facets of the handicapping game and presenting them to the other members on this website is what I imagine is the purpose of this website.

Thanks in advance
1 retired



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the

Mitch44
09-24-2021, 12:44 PM
1 retired,

On your Excel sheet I think you'll find it helpful and more insightful to put a + or - next to the difference.

Mitch44

1retired
09-24-2021, 10:23 PM
Sorry Guys,

I used the old version of the spreadsheet. Here is the new version with the Belmont Park race of Palace Malice added.

1retired
09-24-2021, 10:25 PM
Sorry guys,

It's tough learning these new skills with this website for me. Finally, here is the spreadsheet with Palace Malice's Belmont Park Belmont Stakes races added.

1retired
09-25-2021, 06:29 PM
TTwo more races to add to the database. The first is a MSW 2 5 f race with 4 FTS, none of whom were on the board, so this race was somewhat of a gambple. At odds, of 14-1, I felt it was justified.

The second is a 9f dirt race called the "Maryland Million" a Graded Million dollar Stakes race run at Laurel. The angle horse won a Stakes race at Penn National and was next entered in this race. He finished 4th and missed third place by one length going off at odds of 27.1. This was the first horse that did not at least get on the board with this angle.

I'd like to go back and describe the winning factor more accurately. It is an Early Energy Distribution difference. Most, or. a high portion of the horses energy is distributed in the early part of his race(s).

1 retired

1retired
09-28-2021, 07:14 AM
I;ve been playaing around with this angle for some time now. I now have 16 races that meet the requirements of the E/L Difference Spot Play angle as originally outlined by Lueylump on this site. The results are spectacular, to say the least. These results are exactly what Lueylump said would be achie ved, many winners and in the money finishes.

Thirteen (13) horses have won, paying $355.20, a profit of over $20 per pace.
Fourteen (14) horses have placed, paying $160. 80, a profit of over $10 per race.
Fifteen (15) horses have shown, paying out $95.90,profit.

Exactas were unbelievable. There were fourteen (14) gettable exactas among these races, paying out a total of $3522.40.

All of the profits are based on a single 2$ bet.

I definitely do not believe that the results achieved so far are what this spot play angle is capable of. It must be less, maybe quite a bit less. Nonetheless, I think it will turn out to be quite possible that the angle is still very profitable.
I invite you to try the angle in your handicapping, even if you just do it on paper and see what you get. Let me know if you find it profitable, or not.

The angle is simple. When you find one horse in the race which has a significangt E/L difference between the red and gthe blue stick, with the red stick being more, AMa AND, it also has gthe highest EPR in the race, you have at least a win, place, show bet on that horse and you will most likely find that this horse coupled with logical other contenders will hit in the the exacta and trifecta. One last point, the angle horse has the highest Running Style rating in of all the horses in the race, i.e. E8 or E4 or whatever but the highest in the race.

From the results of the 16 races that I have found from surfing this website, the results will be even better oiff if the EPR is at least 5 points higher than all others and the TPR and total energy number for the angle horse are no more than 2 or 3 points less than that rating for the top horse. You can see all this in the 16 horse database.

I know that many of you are against spot play angles, or seem to be. I agree with you, a complete approach to handicaping is best. I ask that you just note when this situation comes up in your handicapping note it, and see what the results are.

Let me know what you get.

Dave

lone speed
09-28-2021, 09:21 AM
This past Sunday at Remington Park

Remington Park Oaks
Southern California shipper trained by Peter Eurton

extreme difference in Early/Late

ranchwest
09-28-2021, 12:12 PM
I;ve been playaing around with this angle for some time now. I now have 16 races that meet the requirements of the E/L Difference Spot Play angle as originally outlined by Lueylump on this site. The results are spectacular, to say the least. These results are exactly what Lueylump said would be achie ved, many winners and in the money finishes.

Thirteen (13) horses have won, paying $355.20, a profit of over $20 per pace.
Fourteen (14) horses have placed, paying $160. 80, a profit of over $10 per race.
Fifteen (15) horses have shown, paying out $95.90,profit.

Exactas were unbelievable. There were fourteen (14) gettable exactas among these races, paying out a total of $3522.40.

All of the profits are based on a single 2$ bet.

I definitely do not believe that the results achieved so far are what this spot play angle is capable of. It must be less, maybe quite a bit less. Nonetheless, I think it will turn out to be quite possible that the angle is still very profitable.
I invite you to try the angle in your handicapping, even if you just do it on paper and see what you get. Let me know if you find it profitable, or not.

The angle is simple. When you find one horse in the race which has a significangt E/L difference between the red and gthe blue stick, with the red stick being more, AMa AND, it also has gthe highest EPR in the race, you have at least a win, place, show bet on that horse and you will most likely find that this horse coupled with logical other contenders will hit in the the exacta and trifecta. One last point, the angle horse has the highest Running Style rating in of all the horses in the race, i.e. E8 or E4 or whatever but the highest in the race.

From the results of the 16 races that I have found from surfing this website, the results will be even better oiff if the EPR is at least 5 points higher than all others and the TPR and total energy number for the angle horse are no more than 2 or 3 points less than that rating for the top horse. You can see all this in the 16 horse database.

I know that many of you are against spot play angles, or seem to be. I agree with you, a complete approach to handicaping is best. I ask that you just note when this situation comes up in your handicapping note it, and see what the results are.

Let me know what you get.

Dave

Dave, how are you determining the pace lines?

1retired
09-28-2021, 01:37 PM
I'm taking it from the information in the workup posted by the people who handicapped the rqdac4w4 races. These are the people listed in the database in the left hand column. Quite a few of them are by FTL. I did not do any of them myseulf. They picked the pacelines and extracted the data from them. Ranchwest, you have me at a disadvantage. What's your first name?.

Davew

1retired
09-28-2021, 01:58 PM
Lonespeed

Thanks for the info on the Remington race. Unfortunately, I do not yet have RDSS so I can't do the workup on the race and then lookup the El>. E/L dissfference of that horse and the other factors that I am modeling as part of this databsase. I get all my information by surfing this website and using the information provided by other members on the race and horse. If you have this info, if you could give it to me, I'd be grateful.

ON another note, I was reading thru the posts and I think I noticed one where you and partsnut have both read Randy Giles book, "Extreme Pace Handicapping". I'm really interested to know, if you have read the book, if any of his angles are worth incorporating into our/my handicapping using RDSS. I do know that one of the things that he uses heavily is the Running Style designation of the horses in the race. So, have you read the book, and if so, is it worthwhile and does it have any practically application to our handicapping using RDSS?

Dave

?k

ranchwest
09-28-2021, 01:58 PM
I'm taking it from the information in the workup posted by the people who handicapped the rqdac4w4 races. These are the people listed in the database in the left hand column. Quite a few of them are by FTL. I did not do any of them myseulf. They picked the pacelines and extracted the data from them. Ranchwest, you have me at a disadvantage. What's your first name?.

Davew

My first name is Richard. That might put you at a further disadvantage because there are other people named Richard on here. lol Some folks just call me Ranch.

1retired
09-28-2021, 02:01 PM
OK Ranch

Dave

1retired
09-28-2021, 02:18 PM
Lone Speed

Yesm, your (Peter Eurton's) horse did win the race at 6-1 odds and paid $14.00
and the exacta was very gettabl;e and paid around $43.00

Now, the question is, did the horse meet meet the criteria of the angle - that is was the E/L disfference for that horse at least 10 higher than any other horse in the race and what were his EPR difference, E/L difference TPR difference, Total Energy difference and his running style. I assume that her running style was an E something since she led the race from wire to wire. If you can give me the jinfo, I can put it in the database.

If it is confirmed that this horse fits the criteria for the angle, I will tell you that it is looking better and better for this Spot Play Angle. Again, if the data is confirmed, wthe angle will have pointed us the 17 winners in 20 races with most of the winners paying at least 6-1 odds or more.

If you don't have the dataa, I'll ask someone else to provide it.

Thanks

Dave

Mitch44
09-28-2021, 02:46 PM
Dave,
It sounds more and more to me like a lone speed angle, which is always subject to go wire to wire. They are over looked at times. And with a 5 point or 5 lg. advantage their subject to burn other E types out trying to catch them. They can be honed further to produce better results.

I used the 5 lg. advantage a few years back and gave it to LT1. I discarded it but don't remember specifically why.

My believe is that there are other things or Factors that are better angles than a partial one dimensional factor. Hey many angles get some winners. Don't just look at winners, also look at how many losers. This will give you a minimum acceptable odds for that particular angle. No doubt its nice to have several different angles in the tool box.

Best of luck,
Mitch44

ranchwest
09-28-2021, 03:06 PM
Lone Speed

Yesm, your (Peter Eurton's) horse did win the race at 6-1 odds and paid $14.00
and the exacta was very gettabl;e and paid around $43.00

Now, the question is, did the horse meet meet the criteria of the angle - that is was the E/L disfference for that horse at least 10 higher than any other horse in the race and what were his EPR difference, E/L difference TPR difference, Total Energy difference and his running style. I assume that her running style was an E something since she led the race from wire to wire. If you can give me the jinfo, I can put it in the database.

If it is confirmed that this horse fits the criteria for the angle, I will tell you that it is looking better and better for this Spot Play Angle. Again, if the data is confirmed, wthe angle will have pointed us the 17 winners in 20 races with most of the winners paying at least 6-1 odds or more.

If you don't have the dataa, I'll ask someone else to provide it.

Thanks

Dave

The Oaks horse did not wire the field. She went 3rd to 1st. There were 4 horses in the 7 horse field with 8 Quirin points and one with 6.

1retired
09-28-2021, 06:02 PM
Ranch

I misspoke. I acknowledge that the filly was 3rd, 1 length behind at 2F, 1 1/2 lengths and 3rd at the 4F call, and led at the 6F call and won drawing off in the
stretch. AT a distance of 1 1/16F, that quialifies to me. Another horse that Qualified in the Ky Derby (Mine That Bird) was even further back and came on to win drawing off in the stretch. So, to me the horse qualifies in the manner of eher win. The question is, was her E/L difference significantly greater than the other horses in the race and does she have an Early running style. I haven't seen the numbers yet so the horse and her data aren't wqzulified yet.
'
By the way, I'm not looking to cherry pick just the winning races for horses who qualify. I also want to know the horses that qualify and do not hit the board at all as well. I do not want to chanpion a rigged spot play angle that actually does not work in reailty. Someone said that her numbers for E/L difference were 8 and several other horses had E/L differences of 6. If that is the case, then this race does not qualify.

Regards
Dave
\w

ranchwest
09-28-2021, 06:38 PM
You might want to have a more scientific approach before diving in with actual wagers. For one thing, you are depending on the pace lines that various people have selected.

1retired
09-28-2021, 08:28 PM
Nobody said anything about making actual wagers. This is all research to determine if we have a profitable angle. I know that I'm depending on people's selection of the races. I have to have a starting point somewhere. Since I don't have RDSS, I have no other choice than to depend on other people's picking of the pacelines. I think most eppeople use the Best of the last 3 suface, distance etc.

At least in this way I'm getting into the ballpark of seeing whether this angle has the slightest chance of being profitable. So far so good. At some point in the near future, I intend to conduct a formal trial if these races and results continue to be positive. Given the limitations I have with no RDSS, can you think of any other way I could do it. . nand

Since you mentioned it in your post, now people know that I did not picik the pacelines which is fine and it should be known to people. That being said, I think it is fine to go ahead in this manner and get 10, 20 or 30 more recent races and if all is good at that time,, we can start a formal trial. What do you think?

Dave

ranchwest
09-29-2021, 12:17 AM
If you have any past performances, you can practice selecting pace lines. I don't have RDSS, but I have learned enough here to be able to converse on the topic of pace line selection and to sometimes recognize when I have not made the best selection.

The E/L difference is completely dependent on which pace line is selected. I don't think there is specifically a right or wrong, but certainly some lines are more right or more wrong than others. So, you may be getting these suggestions from someone who has made an excellent pace line selection or you could be getting suggestions from someone who has selected a line that you would have never deemed advisable.

So, my suggestion is that you are putting the cart before the horse, pardon the pun. I suggest learning pace line selection first. Then, when you get RDSS, you will be able to get to the line that will be the one you have confidence in for the E/L difference. Of course, RDSS will help you greatly in selecting a line, but from what I hear most of the experts here sometimes switch away from the Perceptor line of RDSS based on other information they glean from RDSS.

Brisnet has a limited number of free past performances in PDF format. Since you won't be making actual wagers, you don't need to be concerned about which track is the free offering.

1retired
09-29-2021, 12:27 PM
I've used Brisnet a number of times and to the best of my understanding the only free PPs that they offer are from either CBY or IND and that is only one or two days a week. fIf there are more free PPs available than what I have just mentioned, please tell me and I will use them.

Dave

ranchwest
09-29-2021, 12:53 PM
I've used Brisnet a number of times and to the best of my understanding the only free PPs that they offer are from either CBY or IND and that is only one or two days a week. fIf there are more free PPs available than what I have just mentioned, please tell me and I will use them.

Dave

I knew they had a free section, so I looked last night and they had IND. Beyond that, I don't know. Any track will do in practicing pace line selection, especially if, on occasion, you can compare your line selections to the line selections of others.

Mitch44
09-29-2021, 04:34 PM
You have to join Brisnet.com, to set up an account Ph. # 1-800-354-9206.

The PP's are #$3.00 per track, however if you make one bet of any size they are free. I.e.
a $.50 Tri straight 1/2/3.If you download the track your going to bet it anyway so their really free. $3.00 a day over the course of a year is a nice little sum of $1,095.00 saved for betting money, definitely helps the bottom line.

Join TwinSpires, their betting platform also, that's how they track your bets for the free PP's. Plus that will give you free each day their Profit Numbers. Their up about 8:30 or so each day for every track, plus free Stable horse's and notifications when running by e-mail.

Mitch44

ranchwest
09-29-2021, 06:21 PM
I just tried to download the free PPs and it wouldn't let me without being signed in. So, it looks like you do have to have a BrisNet account to get even the free files. I am in Texas, so I cannot have a wagering account and therefore cannot get free PPs through wagering.