Charles Town

[Fairchild]

I only have evenings to wager on horses so I am limited on what tracks I can work. Recently I have been trying to figure out Charles Town, do many of you play this track? I am getting very frustrated with it. It seems that too many races are won by horses with no usable lines, those lines being chosen by using the guidelines found in the paceline manual and in the posts submitted by FTL and others. Please tell me that this is an oddball track so I will feel better!!! :mad:

[Jeebs]

CT is a quirky track. Two turn sprints can make for a virtual game of roller derby going into the tight clubhouse turn. Speed is king. All it takes sometimes to wake a horse up is to get it loose on the lead by open lengths. I've seen many implausible longshot runners fit that profile... Unfortunately, those winners usually don't even show an inkling of early speed in the PPs, so it's near impossible to project a wake-up call on numbers alone. 4 1/2F races don't fit well with the Methodology either.

Given the volatile cyclical nature of cheap horses, barns tend to run on extended hot and cold streaks more than your usual racetrack. Pay attention to any possible biases.

In other words, don't play CT like a regular track, because it's not. Pick your spots. Find what works for you. If everything including the kitchen sink fails for you, avoid CT like the plague... Mountaineer, Prairie Meadows, Lone Star and Canterbury are opening soon, which will increase the opportunities for decent night racing.

[Mitch44]

Jeebs is correct about 4.5 F races. There is no pace in them and its all speed and who can get the best break etc. Stick to races there at 5.5 F and up.

As far as pace lines selection you need to step into the modern era and use the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Which was the "Doc's" / Sartin later teachings as he evolved and through testing adapted. If there's not a comparable line in last 3 then go to line 4 etc. I believe its in Follow Up's # 77 & 80.

Sure the last line can win races and given enough bananas so can a trained monkey throwing a dart but you'll win more following Sartin's later teaching then the pace line manual written in 1987. Note: in that manual excuses are still a valid reason not to use the last line, also note the SportStat research in FU # 77 as far as price & winning % which is why he adapted and changed the pace line picking criteria.

I can think of so many reasons why the last line is incorrect that its not worth the time to list them. Welcome to the future and good luck. Adapt and overcome like the "Doc" or perish. Two main keys to winning regardless of which phase you use is picking contenders and pace lines. Sorry CT is not an oddball track.
Good luck.
Mitch44

[Bill S]

Fairchild...I have the same issue you do, I can only play night tracks because I work during the day. Charlestown is a six furlong track and they have those two turn sprints and a lot of 4.5f races. If your having a problem with CT at this time, I suggest you try playing Penn National for a while and then Mountaineer will open around 4/15. I have been playing Penn National now steady for over a year but I'm getting kind of bored with it right now, so I'm waiting for Mountianeer to open up for a change of pace. I'm not saying these tracks will be any easier to play because they have their own issues, but they are both 1 mile tracks.

Like Mitch44 said, the last line is not always the best line to use. I used to have a fetish about using the last line all the time, but after I started getting away from that and having the courage to go down deeper for a better line, my results improved. Listen to some of the stuff Tom Brohamer has to say about paceline selection. That's what really got me to think different

I wish I could play the day tracks but I can only do that on weekends. I live less than a mile away from Parx, I mean I could even walk there, but I can only play it on weekends when I'm not working.

[Mitch44]

Excellent point Bill S on Pen. Nat. & Mtn. I play them at different times and have found them to be very form full. Much better than the beast of CT because of track layout,4.5 F races, more turns that some horses don't negotiate well etc.

These tracks aren't any different than the major tracks and also produce very some good prices. Regardless of track the main point is to use a consistent procedure for pace lines and contenders.
Mitch44

[Bill S]

Charlestown is a nice track, but it's a bullring, 6.0F, and it takes a bit of skill to play something like that. Not really good if your trying to learn the methodology. I have been playing Penn National almost every night for the last year, and by keeping detailed track profiles and models, I have learned a lot about that track, and better yet tracks in general. It has really helped me progress in the methodology. All those things I see people talking about is cool, like biases and energy disbursement patterns, but when you see it yourself from your own records and experience, it starts to open doors and turn on lights in your head.

I suggest you pick a track, and stick with it for several months and keep at least a track profile. Like at Penn National I can tell when they do something to the track during non-racing days. My models go all to hell after being dead on. I have hit several double-digit horses at Penn National due to information from my track profiles. Without those profiles I would have never hit those horses, I would have discounted them as non-contenders like everyone else did.

What I'm trying to say here is pick one track and stick with it for 6 months to a year. Keep records of what happens there and you will begin to learn a lot of information specific to that track and tracks in general. There have been times Penn National has been cruel to me and beat me down good, but what I have learned from all that is priceless. You can read all the books you want, and read postings all day on this board, but the best (and only way IMO) to learn is to get out there and handicap race after race, day after day. Just keep pounding them, and then one day it will all start to come together for you. Like Dr. Sartin said, the only way to learn this is to get out there and do it.

[Mitch44]

Correct again Bill S. Excellent and sound advice!! People do learn by doing better than just reading. Its actually a combination of both that is the ultimate combination with doing comprising or being the most efficient. I.e. about 80%. Learned that in the Army in Methods of Instructions. Its by doing and keeping records that eventually flips that switch and that light bulb of a brain gets it. Regardless of what you use immediately do post mortems to discover mistakes and don't keep repeating them. You'll learn more from that than doing the next days card.
Mitch44

[Bill S]

Yea, I have just began doing post-mortems of races I lose and it really helps out a lot. I have used that exercise to find out what I have been doing wrong, and some of my most sacred precepts about pace line selection have gone up in smoke after doing a post-mortem.

Also as you gain experience go back and re-read the manuals and FU's again. Like when I first read the yellow manual and the pace-line manual, and Dr Sartin's paper on Incremental Velocity and Energy exertion, I didn't understand much of it. Now I go back and most of it is crystal clear now. You'll be surprised how much easier it is to understand. Handicapping is like any other learned thing, it never ends, the process continues for life. You never stop learning and gaining insight and experience.

[Fairchild]

I thank all of you for your posts, you all make a lot of sense.
I am finding that I have two basic problems:
1. I am not consistent in either my line selection or my use of RDSS.
I keep jumping all around trying to find what works for me without giving enough time to any approach.
2. I need to be better at keeping records, profiles etc.
It seems I continually hurt myself, I begin doing well and then I change things and have to begin again.
This game can really cause a person to realize their weaknesses.

[Bill S]

Fairchild, I think your getting overwhelmed with everything right now, and that is understandable. I think right now you need to concentrate on pace line selection technique. To do that you need to become proficient in a few basics, and one of the most important ones is Form Cycle Analysis. You do that by using the +, 0, and the (+). The plus, the zero, and the plus within the zero. I'm sure your familiar with this technique or have at least heard it mentioned before.

What you need to do is go out and buy a Daily Racing Form, if you can call it that anymore. Looks more like a comic book these days, but thats another story. Anyway get a racing form and a red medium point pen. Open it to the first track and first race, and then start rating the first horse's pacelines, but do it from the bottom up. Doing it that way will get you to reading the pacelines historically and in the order they took place. This is important to see the form patterns ebb and flow.

Do every horse in that race. When you get done do the next race, and the next after that until you have rated each paceline in the entire card. Yes this is going to take time. Once you have completed the first card, then go back to the first race, go to the first horse, and start looking at the +, 0, and (+)'s. Start following them up from the bottom and you will see patterns.

Look at the + races....what do you see? Look at the race classes. Does the horse only get a plus when it races $7500 claiming races and below? Does the horse only get a plus when it races 8.0f races and above? Before it races a plus race, what happened in the race before? was it a (+) race? Does the horse only get plus's in turf races? Does the horse get plus races when it runs on a wet track, or does it get zeros? These are the kinds of things your going to start to pick up.

Do this for the entire racing form, for every horse. It might take you a week or more to do that, but once your done, your going to have a new understanding of form cycles and what effects them. You will probably never have to mark the form again because you will be able to do this mentally from that point forward. Your going to see patterns of the +, 0, and the (+). This will help you forecast or predict what point in the horse's form cycle it's in. It will also tell you what class level it's competitive in, and what distance/surface it prefers.

This skill is very important to paceline selection. This is going to help guide you to the most appropriate line to select. Thats another thing to understand, there is no right or wrong paceline to select, only the most appropriate for todays conditions. That's a Howard Sartin quote. I think he said it in the paceline manual.

[Mitch44]

Fairchild shoot me a PM w/ your ph. # and I'll go through a card of picking pace lines with you. I'll try to get you on the right track and be as helpful as I can to up your game. You pick a card and pick all your lines and I'll do the same. Then we can discuss each horse's line etc.
Mitch44

[Fairchild]

Mitch44 It is very kind of you to offer to help me, I might take you up on it. First I want to try what Bill S has suggested. I have tried to visualize the + (+) 0 in my head but have not really put it all together using the horses entire history. I have begun to use graph paper and do each horse from the bottom line up using the RDSS screen. After I do this I examine each horses entire history in light of the symbols assigned to each line to determine who are the contenders and what PPL to use. I have applied this lesson to two entire cards so far and when I checked to see how I would have done the results were great. Mind you this is being done from races that were already ran but I think the work will really pay off. I urge those of you who are having trouble determining contenders and choosing the line to use to give this lesson a try, it will really benefit you. An added benefit is that some of the unplayable races will stand out. Luck to All

[Mitch44]

The information can be gathered much more quickly looking at total energy which is already given for every race. After going from bottom to top then do it again by putting it in context with todays conditions of surface and distance. In fact take those two cards that you did and try it and make a comparison.

I'm not saying what your doing is wrong, it was definitely a proven technique from the past, if it works for you and your comfortable with it then use it. Its just that there are better and quicker tools available to achieve the same results. This even gets horses who are out of the money E.g. of their last race and the race looks ugly but the horse may have matched or was very close to its best race. A change of dis.,sur.,a drop down in class, or a easier pace of the race and the result is a good payoff. Even the "Doc" said that finish positions and beaten lengths can be deceiving, its how the horse ran and how against the pace of the race.

Myself I believe the time can be better spent analyzing the top contenders then the old approach. Handicappers become figure blind. Their blinded by total energy or BL/BL as examples and fail to examine their top contenders and do a complete analysis. E.g. You have three horses that are all rated with a CPR 170 or total energy of 165. These horses are not equal when put in context say for distance. If one is taken from 6 F line because that's all the horse has in its PP and today is a route he's at a huge disadvantage. Proven at the distance trump's (card game word) this horse, even more so if it was decelerating in the 3rd FR. Even router's who have identical 3rd FR and total energy. if todays dis. is 9F and one's race was at 8.5 and the other say 9 F.,advantage to the 9F because he has proven the dis. and their 3rd Fr are the same. We don't know where deceleration will take place with the 8.5 horse and the other has proven it. Context and analyzing are keys to success and most become blinded by numbers.

Imagine if we never progressed. We would be doing all this with pen and paper. A tough learning curve for me was the event and progress of computers. What a game changer! Adapt or perish.

As I said if it works for you terrific, go with it. good luck and skill.
Mitch44

[Bill S]

Like Mitch44 says, there are alternative tools today that help with this, like Total Energy, and EPR/LPR/CPR comparison. These are both excellent techniques and I use them many times when I handicap a race.

What I am trying to get across here, and what I see a lot of (myself included), is that we try to run before we can walk. We don't learn the basics of the methodology first and create a strong foundation to build upon. I did that myself back in 2010 when I first joined this board and started using RDSS. I dived right into RDSS and thought it was going to do everything for me....well I was wrong. I took a bit of time off and then came back, but this time I dived into the methodology itself headfirst. I spent six months studying it before I even fired up RDSS again. That experience helped me more than anything I ever did before. RDSS is a toolbox filled with a set of powerful tools. Only problem is we need to learn how to use the tools before we can win. If a craftsmen doesn't understand how to use his tools he will never succeed in his craft.

I remember years ago I saw Bill V and a few people here talking about +, 0, and (+). I read a bit about it and decided to give it a try. So I did the same thing I told Fairchild to do, bought a racing form and marked the entire thing up with pluses and zeros, and then went back and looked at them. The experience turned a light on in my head. Gave me a new understanding of things. To this day I'd have to say that one exercise was one of the best learning experiences I have had in handicapping.

I don't mark the form today as I can see the plus/zero/plus-zero races myself mentally. This is the purpose of the exercise. To teach you to do this. Also RDSS does a lot of this for you already. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd color-coding of pace lines show the plus races right off, and you can see color coding at the 1st and 2nd call points to help indicate plus within zero races. No color can indicate the possibility of a zero race.

I'm not telling Fairchild to continue buying forms and marking them with pluses and zeros, what I am telling him to do is perform this one time exercise to increase his proficiency in this technique. To strengthen the foundation. Then it will happen subconsciously. In his head. it will be intuitive to him. Intuition is a word you hear a lot when it comes to paceline selection, at least from guys like Sartin and Pizzolla.