Phase 1 race TUP race 6 4/5

[Bill V.]

My look at the 6th from Turf Paradise 5.5
Az Breds Cl 3000 3 + non winners of 1 race in 6 months or 4 races life time
Horse 1 has 12 wins Horse 2 has 10 wins Rest of field have 3 wins each
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
9 5 4 2 6

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
#2 94.5 ( 44.7 )

Step 3 Running styles
Horse 1 Sus line 1 20/1 ML
Horse 2 Early Line 1
Horse 3 Press Line 2 Excuse line 1 First try at TUP
Horse 4 EP line 1
Horse 5 Sus line 1 20/1 ML
Horse 6 EP Line 1
Horse 7 EP Line 1
Horse 8 Press line 2
Horse 9 Press line 1


Step 4 Who has the top EPR
The 2 has the best EPR 94.5
Early Presser
Can It go wire to wire = No but it is inside the 4 6 and 7
However the 79.5 LPR is a knock

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions
Can the top TPR # 9 win 2 in a row ?
The top TPR horses
They are 9 8 5
Top 3 VDC = 4 2 9-8 tie

My bets 4 and 9
I will use the 5 in exactas

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[Mitch44]

I'll go with 6-8-7, in that order. Quick look as I have to go out. Will try to get a second look later. Perhaps some scratches. The # 9 ran a career high in last and see no reason for improvement or that he can repeat it. Definite speed duel race.

Mitch44

[rmath]

I have the 4-9-2 as my top 3 contenders in that order.

[Lt1]

Since I see this is a cheap claiming race where the 4 -5-9 all won their last I'll toss them to repeat. This leaves me 2-6-8. The 8 looks like it maybe going off form so I'll end up with the 2 & 6.
Tim

[raceman5]

It's 8 min to post and the 5 is 20-1 think i will have a little fun here and bet the 5 w-p-s. Maybe all the speed will fall down. Yea right, early speed wins 41% at turf paradise at this distance.

Bob

[rmath]

Looks like we all missed this one.
Rmath

[Mitch44]

Yes we did and a ugly race, couldn't get the 3 better than 4th. Not much confidence in this race. That 3 should have paid even more. Good training and not something to dwell on as it was one of those that was not beatable.

Onward,
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Hi Everyone

I am so sorry for the delay .. GEE how do people in eastern Arizona/New Mexico survive in 2016 with such poor hot spot wifi .

Every time I pulled over on the road and checked I had NO BARS!!!
No networks in range, AHHHH.
Anyway the race turned out to be a dud for us, but lets look at the race,
A very nice man who has helped me greatly did not download the card,
So I want to give him a look.

Here are the race conditions

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Now here is the field

[Bill V.]

1 2 3 4 5

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[Bill V.]

6 7 8 9

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[Bill V.]

My 9 ran second at 5.5/1 :mad:
Bob raceman, you just missed a nice show price with the 5

Mitch saw the 9 just ran its all time high TPR The 3 really is not that far off with a 173 and change TPR and a nice EP-LP balance and pressing style in a race with lots of Early speed ,

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[shoeless]

Bill,

Nice workup of the race

[DontSayDont]

Good race Bill,

What I found interesting was the #6, the post time favorite. In its last race it was claimed by owner/trainer Janis Calton who is starting her first horse in this race. Pretty lean claiming regulations in AZ?

The horse itself has something major wrong with it as it has only been able to race more than one race without having a new layoff period. Twice it ran two races before a layoff. This seems like the type horse that could be "hid" (if it was a contender), moving lower ranked horses up into POSSIBLE betting positions.

Like the #3. It was second start at the track and second start off a layoff, both which can move a horse up in its next race. In its last race it broke the slowest it shows in its 10 race history and it gained lengths and position from the first call to 3rd call, running even at the last 1/8 and beat 1/2 of the field. Has owner/trainer and jockey above 15% wins. By Bills TPR ratings it stood a valid chance.

Of course this is 20-20 hindsight and I did not hcp the race. I do however play Finger Lakes and see many horses at about this class level that do not repeat their wins. There were 3 that won their last at n3L and would lower their chances of repeating which again MAY have moved up lesser ranked horses into possible betting positions.

Ray

[Bill V.]

Thanks Ray

The reason I picked the race was because of the conditions, and the
morning line favorite #6 was 3/1. I did not like the 6 because it was outside the 2 and 4 who were also early
Another thing I saw about the 6 was the 79 LPR I look at sub 80 LPR's with a weary eye,, and the 6 has not hit a 80 in its last 3 races.

Another plus was the 2 my fulcrum horse - and look who had the lead
at the second call = The 2 with a 94.5 EPR , 45 almost right at the fulcrum pace of 44.8
When I look for each races fulcrum when i start going down past each of the top EPR horses because they don't qualify, I start to get a feeling of get out of this race, this happen to me in last Saturdays Match up contest race .
The winner # 9 was in the top 5 TPR off the last line (#1) but
The fulcrum horse who qualified was the 3 who had the second worse EPR of the field. 85.3

In the TUP race we worked, there were 2 20/1 horses , I know they win but the percentages say hardly ever, out they go for win,
There were 3 horse that won there last race the 4 5 and 9 Can they repeat at such a low level ?

My friend looked the race over, and this was his own words .

"#3 - I can excuse the last line as it was the first race over this track at the current meet. Now, line 2 doesn't fit a + or (+). It did not run in the money, it did not have the lead at the first and/or second call and it did not make up ground between the first and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. So, if you can find a way to get to the 3rd race back, I would use that line although I don't know how that would work out.
.

So, try using line 3 for the #3 horse and see how he fits.
I would not have hit this race, however, I wouldn't have even got involved in this race. Not my kind of race.
Sorry I couldn't be of more help in trying to get the winner."

Here is the Phase 1 screen using Line 3 , I did not go past the second line
but I did notice it ran a much more unbalance Early to late 9.3 in line 2
I also see it was 14/1 when its usually in single digits odds.
and it was a 93 race rating compared to today's 85

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The 3 now is low on TPR but does have the best LPR and is the counter energy horse
Its Presser running style shows it might be close enough to the pace to use the late pace rating to its advantage
That is what happened It was in position 8 but had nough to get up and beat out my 9

[Bill V.]

I also was asked about the 5

#5 - Beat a "restricted" race of some kind in last. (note the lower case"r" before the claiming price)

here is the chart, from the 5's win at 57/1 !

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