M4$ Apr9 Challenge11 (PeteC)

[The Pook]

Here you go Pete. Your second shot at building a ladder to climb out of the basement. After this weekend, no more new players.

Bon Chance
Pook

[The Pook]

So Pete sees this on the main page.

[PeteC]

Got it Pook. That better be some ladder too! If I'm gonna make any kind of power move it better be soon. As they say. The fat lady hasn't sung to me yet.....but she's warming up! Talk to you you Saturday.

[PeteC]

Wow, looks like dicey weather around the country tomorrow! For the challenge race, let's go to Aqueduct. The 11th race looks like a challenging race going 7F for the Carter Handicap. It's a field of 8 for this grade 1. Let's hope the field stays in tact....

[Capcondo]

I'm headed for the off-track today and will not be near a computer near post-time. I can't see anybody beating the morning line favorite (5). I'm going to pass the race.

GL

Tim

[Bill V.]

My look at the 11th from AQU
Grade 1, 7 furlongs Carter

Fulcrum horse
No Fulcrum No one has run at 7 furlongs or from the Aqu main track last line

Running styles
Horse 1 Sus line 1 116lbs
Horse 2 Presser Line 1 116lbs 54 days SAR works
Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1 118lbs
Horse 4 Early line 1 117lbs 54 days works ?
Horse 5 SP line 1 123Lbs SAR and + HWL1 works
Horse 6 EP Line 1 trouble dq line ? 114lbs works +
Horse 7 SP Line 1 117lbs works +
Horse 8 Press line 2 117lbs




Who has the top EPR
The 3 has the best EPR 99.5 but to heavy on EP-LP balance
Early Presser
Can It go wire to wire = No not with a 78 LPR

Rate the lines make your decisions

The 5 has a lot of things going for it .
The 6 has not won recently plus last line worries me
The 1 will be late and maybe good odds
lots of 5 furlong constant works


The top TPR horses
They are 6 5 1
Top 3 VDC = 6 5 1

My bets 1 and 5

[gandalf380]

projected pace 22.3 45.0

1 Sassicaia has closed well into this pace. Seems to have improved since the layoff.
2 Majestic Affair needs a slower pace.
3 Dads Caps has not shown much off a layoff-- needs a slower pace.
4 Green Gatto is a fast horse who should be on the lead. Has run well against expected pace.
5 Salutos Amigos is a solid horse who moves up on a wet track. Should like the pace scenario.
6 Anchor Down has not run well for some time. Pace is ok for him.
7 Calculator makes his first start in the east. Usually runs a good race and can handle the pace.
8 Stallwalkin' Dude has not well at this level for a while--should handle pace ok.

Contenders 1,4,5,7.

BL/BL 4,1,5,7.

Will go with 1,4 based on potential odds.

[cigar]

Pace: 22.4 - 45
OTE

Contenders: 1-3-7

1 - need 22 pace - will get contender
2 - distance specialist - not fast enough - out
3 - contender
4 - pace - out
5 - Distance limitation? - upgrade WET
6 - Duel with pace - out
7 - contender
8 - upgrade on WET surface

Win: 1 - 7

[pktruckdriver]

Forgive my quick post, I seem to have forgotten how to screen shot , but will before this contest is over.

Top Contenders 5 Salutos Amigos
6 Anchor Down ( Pletcher /Johnny V) tough to beat
2 Majestic Affair


I am going with the early speed today and a longshot , #4 Green Gratto

I feel the 4 will have the lead and maybe the 5 will catch him at the wire

my two picks are 4 and 5

Back up scratch play will be # 1 Sassicala


Patrick

[mowens33]

The 3 should compromise the earlies with a very fast pace so I’m looking OTE. So I’m looking for a price.
Looking for the 6 and 8 to get the first run at the leaders.
My pick 6 and 8

[Pat C.]

My contenders are:
1-P
4-E
5-P
6-P
I always like good early speed and if the 4 should get clear early he could go all the way. The 5 is the best late closer, but his odds won't help me. The 6 should be fairly close and get the win with some bad luck from the 5.

My picks 4 & 6

[PeteC]

The 4 should be on the lead, with the 3 sitting second and the 6 probably third. Then there seems to be a big position gap to the sustained horses. I don’t think the pace is going to be extremely fast at this distance either. In the 4’s last race it set a slower pace but still could not hold on. I see the race going OTE. The 3 could not keep up with the 4 in their tandem race, the Toboggan Stakes. I like the 6 to pass them from third position, getting first run on the 1,5 and 7 closing from the back.

I’ll take #6.

[The Pook]

Aqu 11

Really competitive. I have too many contenders and it is an off track. I have some contests in the bank so I will PASS.

PASS the Pook

[Ted Craven]

Need to get this in before post-time, further analysis to follow:

My selection: #5 Salutos Amigos

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Need to get this in before post-time, further analysis to follow:

My selection: #5 Salutos Amigos

Ted

The Earlies 3-4-6 have enough competitiveness to soften each other up, hopefully degrade their staying power. Thus OTE, and the closingest, classiest, #1 VDC and tops in all Tote measurements is #5.

Plus - FWIW (and more to come on the new RDSS2.1 readouts later), Rank#1 in the new Rx factor has been flat bet profitable over both the Inner and Main track meets at Aqueduct, if low priced. (It does help with 1 horse bets, though!)

40273

Ted

[The Pook]

Amazing horse on an off-track. 7 for 7 now!

Pook

[Ted Craven]

An amazing Exacta, IMO - $14.50 for $1 on the Top 2 betting favourites.

And - a nail-biting stretch run!

[Bill V.]

Excellent work Ted,
Nice call on making the 5 a single.

I wish I had the guts, but I am locked in to 2 win bets ,

Here is the chart Phase 1 had the 5 ranked like a 1:10/1 horse should be
plus the SAR workouts , I almost wanted to bet it as a single too
...

[Bill V.]

Chart and phase 1

40277

40278

[PeteC]

...You beat me to the punch...I was just coming on to post the chart. That was a heck of a finish...but yet another favorite in the contest. Bill, Ted and Patrick had the winner. Nice job guys, 'Amigos' made his strong power move to get the job done once again and, as Pook said, 7 for 7 on an off track.

[The Pook]

Hey whats going on here! The two players with access to the latest RDSS with special magic numbers like RX and fancy new screens both catch the winner and are now leading in the contest. Is this fair? Smells a little fishy to me.;)

Pook

[gandalf380]

Don't get paranoid now pook. But then again this was an obvious exacta. Amazing it paid so well. However, the last two weeks I have based my selections on probable odds but the parade of low prices marches on.

[The Pook]

Don't get paranoid now pook. But then again this was an obvious exacta. Amazing it paid so well. However, the last two weeks I have based my selections on probable odds but the parade of low prices marches on.

No worries Gandalf. Just poking a little fun (notice the wink icon;)) I agree, you have to be concerned for odds. Always.

Pook