Practice Race GP 4/17/16 race 5

[Bill V.]

This race has already been run
So lets be honest and no looking at the results
I don't know scratches or the track condition
I will post them after I am done working the race but I want to do it as if its a fast track with no scratches


This race is by request from GL45

Its a 6250 Non winner of 3 life claimer for 3 +F

I will post my readouts and work up after the last PP
Some thoughts going in . I kind of have a feeling that this is a race for me to avoid. I have 2 ugly horses with over 20/1 ML's I went to line 5 on a horse.
I did go against a early horse # 8 from the outside So that is a spot play for me .
However I know Mr GL45 very well and I kind of feel this is not going to work out based on phase 1 but lets try, It is how we learn ,
Here are the conditions and some stuff from RDSS2.1

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[Bill V.]

1 2 3 4

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[Bill V.]

5 6 7 8

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[Bill V.]

Here are my readouts and work sheet

My look at the 5th from GP
CL 6500 Non winner 3 life 3+F
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
8 3 5 1 4

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
Fulcrum horse # 8 92 EPR

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 EP Line 1
Horse 2 U or Nf router. No line. No competive races against todays fulcrum 92 EPR
Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1 puts itin the top 5 TPR but its no a comparable line I went to line 5 Line 1,2,3 are
from too high class. In line 1 It had the lead into the stretch against open 16000 horses. I excused line 4
Horse 4 SP as Router Line 1 puts it in the top 5 TPR off the last line but against only a 83 EPR
Horse 5 Presser Line 2 excuse line 1. 7 furlongs. Claimed from that race then layed off Line 2 works
Horse 6 No Line 20/1 ML no competive races as a sprinter against a 92 EPR
Horse 7 Presser Line 2 I will excuse line 1 too high class
Horse 8 Early line 1 2nd off a layoff after a year and a half layoff - 3 year old filly - Bounce ?




Step 4 Who has the top EPR

The 8 has the best EPR 92
Early
Can It go wire to
wire = It could do it again but its outside post, won last race, could bounce

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions


The top TPR horses
They are 8 3 5
Top 3 VDC = 8 3 6


My bets 3 and 5
8 looks good but I already mentioned why I am betting against it .
The 7 has too low a LPR

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[Mark]

I read the #3 as a NTL Early and today there was no one to threaten him early. The #5 off the last line gave him the 0.0 in the 1st fraction of the segment screen but i designated her an SP. The #7 would be closest and that horse falls off the cliff late.
I used the #3's 5th line as my projected pace and when you do that you see the #8 is not fast enough to run as she wants to: an EP. If you look at the #5's lines even though she will run from 4th or 5th, when faced with this early pace she either backs up or can't close. The horse that bothered me most was the #1. Which horse were you going to get? The horse that was dropped to today's level from C30 open in her last race or a Presser that was beaten a neck in her last, albeit against a much slower pace. She made up ground late and got 2nd but was no threat to the winner at a juicy price!

My question was would you go back to that 5th line. So I see when you analyze a horses lines and in your opinion it is justified to go beyond the 3rd or 4th you do it. And to me that is the key. If we become locked into the last 3 or 4, as I think the majority of the Public does we miss these horses. In fact if you handicap a race and get your true contention from races taken from the last 3 or 4 lines, the majority of the time the winner will pay $6.00 or less. That is my key to pass the race since I am a crappy exotics player.

Nice work!!!!

[Mark]

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Note in 7f races you will often get faster 2nd fractions because the first 1/2 mile is run in a straight line down the backstretch from the shoot. So you have to compensate for that mentally.

[Bill V.]

Thank you Mark and GL45
Mark you nailed it . I saw the 3 and 5 were in my top 5 TPR off the last line
Its the # 1 guideline in Phase 3 ALWAYS rate the last line first .
Once I know the strength of the top horses in TPR I can look for reasons why the last line is not the line.
Here is my Phase 1 step 1 screen using the last line for all 8 horses.

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Horse 8 is way out front with a 176. Horse 8's line 1 is a + race. Its current and from the GP so its a solid line , I can pretty much see that I need to be near 176 to compete against the 8
Looking at the rest of the top 5. The 3 5 1 and 4 all come from different distances than today's race and the 3 comes from a 5.0 turf sprint.

So for horses 2 6 7 I pretty much can toss them Look at horse 6 and 2,
Enough said about them, But horse 7 has the excuse of running against too high class horses. So I went to line 2, but now look 168 is going to have to really improve to move up to 176.

Now horse 3 is good off the last line but how can he do on a recent comparable pace line? That is why I had no problem going to line 5. Its the line .
Horse 1 and 5 are coming back to 6 furlongs after running to early at 7 furlongs

I went to line 2 for horse 5 cause its a + line ,recent and its closer to today's distance.

For horse 1 I had to go with the last line because it is current, its a plus line
but then they freshened her for 4 weeks I could have gone to line 3
but its not really a + line I give it a (+) because it was up close against 12.5
claimers
If I had use line 3 my bets would be 1 and 3 instead of 3 and 5
so I still got it .

Thank you again Mark

Bill

[gl45]

Bill, Mark,
btw I bet 4 races (2-4-5-8), lost 3 won 1 (5), still a profit for the day.
Race 4 my 7 lost to the 5 by 1/2 length. no complain, that's racing.

[The Pook]

GL, I worked this race last night when Bill posted it and was presently surprised to see the result. Nice choice. What specifically made you want to have this as a practice race?

Like Mark I was surprised to see Bill selecting that 5th line back which was necessary to get the win. And as Mark says also the key to the price.
Wish we all had it in real time. (Maybe GL did). These results should happen more often.

Good job gents,
Pook

[gl45]

TP,
yes I won the race but I lost 3 races for the day , I was 1 for 3, still made a little profit,
I think this race represent what I wrote long time ago on this forum:

Usually the best line in the horse past performance is the line that also have the highest speed rating, or some other combos of best factors. Is how the horse performed in that race that counts the most. The last 2 or 3 races are only indicative of the horse form. Is the horse coming to hand or losing his form. What effect last race had on the horse, was a taxing effort or a conditioning race. If it was a hard race, maybe the horse will not perform today, if it was a conditioning race, maybe that is all the horse need, to win today. Interpreting pace lines require going back to the past performance and find the factors that were missed which would have made the horse in question a contender, or for that matter, a winner.
Some handicappers follow strict rules, lets bend them a bit and give yourself a chance to win few more races.

Again, I wrote on this forum the following:

No rules. If you select the best of the last 3 or 4 races, doesn't tell me nothing if the horse has the best race in line 10, run 7 months ago. That is my line. It took me quite a while understanding this concept.

I lost race #4 by 1/2 length, is also a good race to analyze.

GL

[Mark]

We have to look at the pacelines of the horse to discover what and how he succeeds. Screw what paceline(s) they are. The #3 horse had gone wire to wire twice! He had not won or really finished that close any other way. What I missed because when I say him I knew he was my horses is that he learned something in those 3 turf sprints, was to run alongside or just off another horse and not freak out. So he had become a bit of a P and not a dedicated NTL. Bill got that I missed it.
We could see the times he had success against and if he was to run against them today in his race, game over. Don't forget that a horse has a mind and personality and habits. Jim Bradshaw and Richie P spent a lot of time and effort trying to teach us that.
I'm with Richie, if I can't project a pace in a race for whatever reason if I am confused or lack confidence, NEXT. They come along every few minutes. It should take you 5 to 10 minutes to work a race thoroughly. Any of you run track or cross country in high school, it is all about the early pace. If someone roars off to a big lead, no one pressures him chances are no body is going to catch him. He is to busy telling himself, "I'm going to win", "I'm going to win" to think about getting tired. I'm sure a horse feels some kind of emotions as well. So evaluate the horse, look at his fractions check out how he runs in each race, see when he fades or when he gains positions an lengths. That will tell you more than any speed figure or other abstract number. On the other hand when a horse starts running by horses in the stretch as he approaches the finish line that has to be exhilarating. Horses know where the finish line don't think for minute they don't.
See the idea here is to use the same information everybody else has but wind up on a horse that is going to pay a price, honestly not throwing darts. If you use all these adjusted numbers and speed figures and such like those that don't know better, you will end up on the same horses. And lose your money!!

[gl45]

Mark,
I like to quote you,..."Any of you run track or cross country in high school, it is all about the early pace. If someone roars off to a big lead, no one pressures him chances are no body is going to catch him. He is to busy telling himself, "I'm going to win", "I'm going to win" to think about getting tired." I have learned a little bit from my son about fast early pace. I never brag about him, but your post just made me proud of him. Here is a piece from The Baltimore Sun.

Boys Runner of the Year

* Joe Ledda, Liberty, Jr.-- Quiet but intense, Ledda lived out his dream in the Carroll County championship race. Ledda said his goal was to win the county championship because he never had won a big race. He took the top spot by 10 seconds over Westminster's Tim Meerschaert, who had run just three seconds behind Ledda in the Central Maryland Conference championships. It was the third time Ledda had beaten Meerschaert in four confrontations this season, and was just enough to push him past Meerschaert for the Runner of the Year honors. Liberty coach Dan Jones said it is rare to see a high school runner prepare himself so thoroughly for a race. Ledda also wanted to break into the 16-minute-plus club, and he did it in grand style in the 2A regionals at Middletown, finishing in 16 minutes, 16 seconds for fourth place. Ledda thought he had a 16:59 at the county meet but it was an inadvertent call and the official time had him at 17:01.

GL

[Mark]

Few will understand your son's accomplishments. Long distance running like all high endurance sports is grueling. It is only for the very mentally tough. It is pushing yourself beyond your concept of intellectual exhaustion, which stops most people. Congratulations on rearing such a fine young man. May he use this ability to create a long and happy life!

[shoeless]

GL45

Nice piece about your son

[Bill V.]

Here is the chart
Thanks GL45

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