winners LPR

[Bill V.]

Cigar asked this question over in the match up contest area
I wanted to answer it here so we can see how this goes going forward.

here is the question

Cigar wrote.
Bill, interesting comment on #6. Early horse requiring lp of 80 to qualify for a win. Form your data mining what is the percent of early horses requiring an lp of 80+ to win? How many races was evaluated?

My answer .
Unfortunately all my data base records are from 1 track only = Parx
Also that database is on a virus infected computer at home in San Diego
I did not bring it with me while I am out on the road
Besides the database there is not much else of any good on that computer
so I have kind of put it on the back self of the storage in my brain.

But lets say I told you it was over 95%. for ALL horse all distances and surfaces It is probably higher.
Lets do this instead, Lets just look at 2 completely different races.
both are practice races so they are posted here to verify

The first race is a route for older male horses at Keeneland
The second is a low level 6250 Claimer n-3 for 3+F at Gulfstream

There were 20 horses in these two races
These 20 horses had 32 wins showing in their RDSS2.1 PP's

Of those 32 wins only 1 win was earned with a LP lower than 80
That was Horse 7 from GP That horse is a 3 year old filly which tend to run higher early to late numbers

Here is my work up You can check just about any race in the TPR forum were the phase numbers are posted in the PP's and we can add to this list but I think its going to be clear a horse who has trouble getting higher than 80 LPRs is a low win probability

Keene Race Horse 1 Line 8 LPR 98
Horse 2 Line 1 LPR 95.6
Line 2 LPR 95
Horse 3 Line 1 LPR 89.6
Line 2 LPR 87.5
Line 3 LPR 87.5
Horse 4 Line 8 LPR 92.5
Line 10 LPR 90+
Horse 5 Line 1 LPR 98.2
line 4 LPR 95.6
Horse 6 Line 8 LPR 89.6
Horse 7 Line 5 LPR 90.6
Horse 8 Line 4 LPR 87
Line 5 LPR 83.5
Horse 9 Line 7 LPR 80.5
Line 8 LPR 87.0
Horse 10 Line 2 LPR 90.5
Line 7 LPR 91.6
Horse 11 Line 8 LPR 87.0
Horse 12 Line 5 LPR 95
Line 7 LPR 83.7

GP Race 5 6250 Claimer 3+F
Horse 1 Line 10 LPR 94.8
Horse 2 No wins
Horse 3 Line 5 LPR 81
Line 10 LPR 84.5
Horse 4 Line 5 LPR 90.1
Horse 5 Line 2 LPR 82
line 10 LPR 84
Horse 6 Line 6 LPR 96.5
Horse 7 Line 2 LPR 76.1 3 year old philly
Line 4 LPR 86
Horse 8 Line 1 LPR 84
Line 3 LPR 83

[Mitch44]

I guess I'll be the contrarian here.

A horses LPR really has to be put in context of the other horses in the race and especially the horses with the better second calls and TPR / CPR horses.

A horse can have a 95 and not catch the early speed or have a 100 and be a one run closer that can't get up. I'm sure class also is a contributing factor as better horses run better LPR's and lower class tracks or lower class races run lower LPR's.

Rather than use only one factor or overly weigh LPR one should evaluate everything they have. In TPR that would be EPR,LPR, CPR and advance concepts.

I guess you can say its the matchup but it must be put in context of the other horses in the race, it doesn't pay to be over reliant on any one factor.

Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Hi Mitch

I am showing this while still looking further into it.
Cigar asked about early horses.
Since I know that a horse with a sub 80 LPR
is a low win percent bet.
To me a early horse that can pull off a win with lower than a 80 LPR . IS probably a youngster I imagine we might find a few in low level maiden races
But then even here , the horse probably stole the race .
Setting a comfortable easy EPR, and then not needing much late energy as nobody could catch it , so yes It will have a low TPR.
Lets see how this developes If you find a sub 80 LPR. Please let me know and we can examine the reasons ,
I look forward to it
Bill

[The Pook]

Here is a good price I just picked up from MVR. The winners LPR was a 77 but had a 91 Early producing a killer E Stick..(relatively). These aren't the best of horses at MVR so as Bill mentioned I think this happens more often on the cheaper side of things.

The sweet spot here was the morning line of 1.6 to 1. Paid $9.60! Sweet!

Pook

[Mitch44]

A horse like the # 5 forces the others to keep up to be in striking distance and by doing so they don't run their 3rd FR's . Happens at all tracks regardless of class.

Even when a E horse can't win they have an effect on the race. Even with a poor LPR the winner is close (1 1/2 to 1 3/4 lengths) from the best CPR's. He can make that up by forcing them to run early, for every lg. will cost them two. He can win this by about a length.

Regardless LPR has to be put in context or let the computer do it for with other readouts in RDSS. Its all relative and must be put in context even with LPR's under 80 or over 80. The closeness of the top 4 CPR alone in this race indicates this is a close race. Regardless of his LPR he still ran a CPR that is close and is competitive in here regardless of a LPR under 80. Another horse could have a CPR of 165 with a LPR of 90 doesn't mean he can win. Another reason why some look for balance etc.
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Hi Pook
I agree with Mitch lets look at the horse and the match up the pace line you used ,

The top 5 horses TPR off the last line ( big deal there are only 7 horses )
show 4 6 5 1 3


There is no fulcrum horse - nobody qualifies, but the 5 just misses by 1/2 a length

40412

The 5 has the best EPR by 3 points over the next highest EPR horse 6

40414

Line 1 puts it at tied for second behind the route line for the 4 with a pretty low 167 TPR

40413


So now I will look at all the horses and see what develops
This is a Claiming 10, for non winners of 3 life statebreds
some of these horse have very bad records and sustained or ugly form

Horse 1 Sus. line 1 is a + line same distance same class same track
Horse 2 Press No line Line 1 is a zero line Line 2 is a off track and 119 days ago Line 3 is also a zero race.
Horse 3 was once an early but its last 4 races show a different style
Line 1 is a (+) kind of , It was in the money at the second call
Horse 4 Ugly Router no line -This horse is anything but Early but line 1 gets an adjusted 170 TPR
Horse 5 Early Presser I excused line 1 because of an off track I went to line 2 Its a + line recent and at the same distance surface and competition lever
as today's race. I see you used line 3 but its on a gd trace and against cheaper 62 RC to 69 for line 2 also it was on a very slow DTV 26
so that could explain how it got lead and held on with a sub 80 LPR
Horse 6 Ugly No form no line This horse is far from Early
Horse 7 Same as horse 6 Ugly far from early

here is my phase 1 look
Who has the best EPR 6 5 4
Who has the best TPR 4 5 6
Who has the best VDC 4 5 3

I could not bet the 4 because its line is adjusted and It shows no + sprint races

I would have a problem betting anybody but the 5
and I need 2 horses and My look the 5 has a over 80 LPR and a advantage early

GS
Bill

40417

[Mitch44]

I would have used line 3 because L 2 isn't his normal running style and what he can be expected to do today. L1 out sloppy, the choice is between L 3 & L 4 both have pretty much the same rating. L 4 has a better Total energy which means he ran a better 1st Fr however when you look at the variant of -47 its way too aberrant to be trusted. I wouldn't trust it even through Trackmaster makes very good adjustments, this is probably over the line. Pun intended.

Mitch44

[The Pook]

Thanks Bill for your workup of the race, and thanks Mitch for your input. To be honest I was on Line 3 of the #5 because of the automatic top perceptor last three setting. I of course then look over the choices. A good track doesn't throw me off a line as a slop or mud designation might. And a 5000 claimer verses a 10000 claimer? Then as Mitch pointed out the running style in line 2 was slightly abhorrent. The fractions in line 3 were closer to my projected pace than line 2. I was using projected to get contenders as opposed to fulcrum. Bill said there was no fulcrum so he wouldn't have been involved in it anyway.

But as I pointed out the odds were a pleasant surprise. This time they went the right way after the gate popped. Two other times yesterday I had winners odds slashed severely after the race was off. At Finger Lakes in the 5th the winner had a ML of 10-1. When the last horse went in I bet him at 9-2. When he crossed the finish line he was 2-1 and paid $6.70. And it wasn't my bet that did it. Granted he was an Early with a big early advantage but he lost his last race by 39 lengths. Worth the risk at 9-2 maybe but I wouldn't have been on him at 2-1. Small tracks with small pools....big swings.

Back to the topic at hand I posted the race because of the low LPR. I appreciate your input. If something comes up today pertinent to LPR's that is interesting I will post it.

Pook

[Mitch44]

The Pook; I didn't download this race and used only what was here on this post to pick a line. Normally I do use preceptor as its a better tool.

A few things with line picking that I do are: 1. My top screen is set on Original Tab where I use Perceptor and have the variants for review, I also look at surface & distance here to match todays conditions as close as possible. 2. My middle screen is set on TPR / + EL because I like to see the early late on this screen as to what's its normal style and also if it can rate or adapt to todays matchup. 3. My bottom screen is set on BL / BL so I can check more than one line for a horse when two lines are close.

In most cases the top screen is enough but the other two really help. This doesn't take long at all except with horses that don't fit todays condition, turf to dirt, or streatch outs etc. than I look deeper at other things. Hope this helps RDSS members.

Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Thanks Mitch and Pook
I see your points on using line 3
I prefer line 2 but I am also using my tools at Doc's
recommended settings ,
Hey Mitch I like how you have the screens set up
I only use read on laptops I find showing 3 sets of readout on my laptop to be too small,
Thanks again
Bill

[Bill V.]

Hey Mitch
If you want , I can post the full PP's
for the race .
Is original on top and phase 1 on bottom okay or do you want another screen too?
Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Pook
This is from the pace line selection chapter in the original
Pace Makes The Race,
Tom Hamilton is writing,
"If the condition of the track was other than fast, this may or may not affect the total pace rating , we can adjust for slow surfaces , but some horses just refuse to perform in the wet. In this particular case , I would look at the second line if the distance is similar and it was as good effort. The same can be said for an extremely fast or hard track
with say a variant of 6"

[Mitch44]

Bill V.; I'm good with what was there ( PP's) and would have had it and a good line. As Doc said on many horses a different line will still get the horse in the top two such as this case therefore you can't necessarily say one particular line is correct. One is better but both can be correct Bill.

If you can't get 3 screens perhaps you can get two. I seldom use the BL /BL one for one horse and two different lines. My preference would be for the other two also in your case. Check with Ted on the number of screens because I believe he made a post on how to set this up. Also my CP went from 3 to 1 one time for no reason and he helped me get it back through the settings.

Using the multiple screens does help with line selections and when looking at E & L, I also have the TPR which I look at in certain situations in selecting lines and decisions etc. You can do a little more with that then say a BL BL etc. as far as interpretation so I usually consult it. While it was only Phase 1 it still remains a valuable tool and should be in everyone's toolbox.

Mitch44

[cigar]

Cigar asked this question over in the match up contest area
I wanted to answer it here so we can see how this goes going forward.

here is the question

Cigar wrote.


My answer .
Unfortunately all my data base records are from 1 track only = Parx
Also that database is on a virus infected computer at home in San Diego
I did not bring it with me while I am out on the road
Besides the database there is not much else of any good on that computer
so I have kind of put it on the back self of the storage in my brain.

But lets say I told you it was over 95%. for ALL horse all distances and surfaces It is probably higher.
Lets do this instead, Lets just look at 2 completely different races.
both are practice races so they are posted here to verify

The first race is a route for older male horses at Keeneland
The second is a low level 6250 Claimer n-3 for 3+F at Gulfstream

There were 20 horses in these two races
These 20 horses had 32 wins showing in their RDSS2.1 PP's

Of those 32 wins only 1 win was earned with a LP lower than 80
That was Horse 7 from GP That horse is a 3 year old filly which tend to run higher early to late numbers

Here is my work up You can check just about any race in the TPR forum were the phase numbers are posted in the PP's and we can add to this list but I think its going to be clear a horse who has trouble getting higher than 80 LPRs is a low win probability

Keene Race Horse 1 Line 8 LPR 98
Horse 2 Line 1 LPR 95.6
Line 2 LPR 95
Horse 3 Line 1 LPR 89.6
Line 2 LPR 87.5
Line 3 LPR 87.5
Horse 4 Line 8 LPR 92.5
Line 10 LPR 90+
Horse 5 Line 1 LPR 98.2
line 4 LPR 95.6
Horse 6 Line 8 LPR 89.6
Horse 7 Line 5 LPR 90.6
Horse 8 Line 4 LPR 87
Line 5 LPR 83.5
Horse 9 Line 7 LPR 80.5
Line 8 LPR 87.0
Horse 10 Line 2 LPR 90.5
Line 7 LPR 91.6
Horse 11 Line 8 LPR 87.0
Horse 12 Line 5 LPR 95
Line 7 LPR 83.7

GP Race 5 6250 Claimer 3+F
Horse 1 Line 10 LPR 94.8
Horse 2 No wins
Horse 3 Line 5 LPR 81
Line 10 LPR 84.5
Horse 4 Line 5 LPR 90.1
Horse 5 Line 2 LPR 82
line 10 LPR 84
Horse 6 Line 6 LPR 96.5
Horse 7 Line 2 LPR 76.1 3 year old philly
Line 4 LPR 86
Horse 8 Line 1 LPR 84
Line 3 LPR 83

Thanks Bill for your insights and response into my inquire. This forum has been a great learning tool and I would like to thank everyone who has contributed, for the grater good. I know I am late to the party but I wanted to do my own evaluation. I am focusing on WO this year and forty races have ran to date.

After my analysis Bill statement hold true to form. However I do agree with others using Lpr 80+ to solely eliminate contenders may not be prudent.

Total Race Ran: 40 - keep in mind races carded are 5 - 7 furlongs

100% of the races won the LPR was above 80+

Early - Wire to Wire winners: 11 - 27.5%

Early Presser: 7 - 17.5%

[Bill V.]

I plan on doing a test
Something was mentioned to me in a PM

I recently picked a line 5 back which was the acceptable line
The problem is the line before the line I used had a LPR of 54
All the races before that line were turf sprints.
The PM said If I was working the race the day of the paceline
The only paceline would be the paceline with a 54 LPR
We went back and forth and I think we agreed that the 54 LPR race was aberrant. But It got us thinking should we use a race for a pace line with a sub 80 LPR or are we just projecting that there are no signs the horse has the ability to run a 80 lpr TODAY

I have been thinking of running a test of how many lines selected by Ted's BLT/preceptor show a LPR of less than 80 and that horse wins the upcoming race.

Here is an example In this race from Sunland Park The BLT Preceptor best of last 3 picked line 3. That line shows a 79 LPR
If this horse wins I will mark it as a such A win line with less than a 80 LPR I would like some help .
If you use the BLT/Preceptor and you get a winning horse with a paceline LPR
under 80 Please note it for me ,
Thank you
Bill

40463

[Bill V.]

Here are the pace lines for the horses in Saturdays Sunland Card
These are horses whose pace lines were selected by the BLT preceptor
so a LPR less than 80
Lets see how they run Results 1 win Horse 1 race 10


Sundland 4/23 UPDATED

Race 4 5.5 Dirt CLs 7.5 N2-Y 3+F
Horse 1 Line 2 127 days ago 78.6 LPR 6/1

Race 5 6.0 Dirt CL 7.5 N2-6m 3 +
Horse 4 Line 1 28 days ago 76.8 LPR 6/1

Race 7 8.3 Dirt CL 3.5 N1-4M 3+
Horse 2 Line 3 157 days ago 79.1 LPR 7/2
Horse 4 Line 3 25 days ago 68.3 LPR 3/1

Race 8 6.5 Dirt CL 7.5 N1-6m 3+f
Horse 3 Line 1 39 days ago 74.5 LPR 10/1

Race 9 8.0 Dirt CL 5 N2-M 3 +
Horse 3 Line 2 35 days ago 78.3 LPR 5/2
Horse 5 Line 1 17 days ago 79.2 LPR 3/1
Horse 4 Line 3 32 days ago 64.5 LPR 8/1

Race 10 6.0 MS32 3+
Horse 6 Line 1 35 days ago 78.4 LPR 5/2 SCR
Horse 1 Line 1 20 days ago 78.7 LPR 4/1 Wins @.80 $3.60
Horse 8 Line 3 109 days ago 72.2 LPR 10/1
Horse 7 Line 1 11 days ago 75.0 LPR 15/1 Scr

Total horses 10 Total wins 1

[Lt1]

Hi Bill I did 8 at Aqu today all winners over 80. I'll help you out.
Tim