View Full Version : Tpr
Can TPR numbers be used to master the MU?
Bill V.
04-21-2016, 11:04 AM
Hi GL45
We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing
who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on ,
So If you know how to interpret the ERP ratings , and the early - late difference
graph or "sticks" and The LPR ratings and you take the time to learn how to identify a horses running style, You can matchup
Remember TPR is the Total Pace Rating of Phase 1
What TPR is really is 2 readouts Early pace and Late pace which when added together gets a Total Pace Rating
So If you master Phase 1, totally you can Match Up
It takes lots of practice and intuition, You will have trouble just if you just look at the numbers because the race starts at the gate. we need to know how the horses get to the second call, It is just as important as where they are at the second call . Did they use too much of there total energy ? Will they decelerate relative to their velocity too much.
Bill
Bill, what a profound response.
And gl45, thanking you for asking the question. I've wanted to ask it a hundred times.
shoeless
07-17-2016, 01:12 PM
It was a good question by GL45, I wish more had been done with it
The vulnerability in literal interpretation of EPR-LPR and TPR is the assumption that should your selected horse run his EPR, that he will run his LPR as suggested by the selected paceline.
Early horses can run much better LPRs and subsequent TPRs if they are on an uncontested lead. So part of your evaluation is determining whether your best EPR horse got to that point slugging it out with other contenders or waltzed to it, reserving considerable energy for the stretch run. As Bill noted, you have to understand the concept of Running Styles. And Running styles are different than ESP. The former is based on visual evidence of a horse's preferred positon at the 1st Call when they run their top efforts, wins or very close finishes. ESP is a ratio of 2nd Call velocity divided by final fraction, IN THE PACELINE RACE YOU HAVE SELECTED. If you look at the Velocity -POH screen it will show you the ESP for each paceline. This tells you how the horse reacted to the POR of that paceline. An E means he was basically all done by the 2nd Call. And each additional designation, EP, P, SP, S and L have greater final fraction components often at the expense of 2nd call velocity.
So if you use the best of the last 3 comparable pacelines automatic paceline selection routines and the horses in question have had recent layoffs or have been running at higher classes and finishing poorly, in most cases your EPR best horses will have very poor LPRs and resulting TPRs. Or a S horse that closes into a slow final fraction will have a high LPR and better than normal
TPR.
This means two things:1) When you identify a horse's Running Style which you do without reference to pace or paceline, then to evaluate his potential you have to find a paceline where he ran well with a win or good finish. That may be his 8th line down or some such thing. You can always throw the horse out later because you feel his form is lousy and there is no way he will run back to that. 2). Also as Bill mentions, you have to know who will likely take the lead and what kind of early contention there will be. Generally, if there are 3 or more Es or EPs in a race, they will beat each other up and maybe one will hang on for 3rd. So you can not rely on the TPR method exclusively, you have to evaluate the 1st fraction and determine what kind of early pace will result. To me this has always been the problem with using TPR as a standalone handicapping method. Once you evaluate the runners, assign Running styles and select pacelines that show how the horses ran against that early pace, then you can throw them into TPR and have something meaningful.
shoeless
07-17-2016, 03:29 PM
Mark,
Thanks for the reply
Thanks, Mark. I printed that and tacked it on the cork board at eye level.
Mitch44
07-17-2016, 07:14 PM
Bill you gave a great answer in saying "we need to know how the horses get to the second call."
Simple example: 1st Fr 2nd Second Call Phase 1 w/out any adjustments
Horse A 22 23 45 100 95 95
Horse B 23 22 45 95 100 95
Who is the best horse? B is the best horse in this scenario. A has already started to decelerate while B has plenty of acceleration or more energy. Once deceleration starts it normally continues and becomes greater.
While TPR or Total energy gets many winners in the top 3, also the end product is " we need to how the horses " get to their TPR or Total Energy. Just because the number are the same and may rate or get the same weight does not mean their equal. Great point Bill.
Mitch 44
What is so useful in comparing Running Style and ESP is that you can find horses that take the lead but they have Sustained energy distribution. You find these horses most often in Graded races as they are supreme athletes. I have personally always marveled at horses the were over 10 lengths back at the 1st call and end up winning the race and their ESP is EP. That is evidence that the horse closed into a very week final fraction as all the Es and Ps just stopped. Check the %Med on late horses. On dirt a good S horse should run as low as 66% but generally in the 67% area. On turf they can go lower.
It is all about the competition in today's race and are the earlier runners going to go "too fast too early". Early horses that can pop the gate and gain immediate separation on their competitors while running within their capabilities will be damn hard to catch.
Horses that surrender lengths at the beginning of the race have to make that ground up later in the race. The only way to do that is to be running faster than the leader(s), a big 2nd fraction Presser may do this rapidly by passing the initial leader, but depending on the ground to be made up the differential in the velocity of the current leader and the closing runner will take greater or lesser time depending on the deficit and the closing horse's velocity.
There is one absolute law in all of racing: You don't have any traffic problems running on the front end.(Although I did see a comment once from a race at Hollywood probably 20 years ago, "Hit in head by bird".)
turfsup
07-18-2016, 02:27 AM
dear bill thanks for explaning the tpr ,, on another note are you or any one else making money betting maidens? I'm having some success with rdss// turfsup
Latekick
07-18-2016, 09:47 AM
dear bill thanks for explaning the tpr ,, on another note are you or any one else making money betting maidens? I'm having some success with rdss// turfsup
Maidens at this time of year especially are providing some great prices. If you know what to look for and know what has the possibility to create nice mutuals, maidens can make you a good chunk of change at this time of the year.
Bill V.
07-18-2016, 10:01 AM
dear bill thanks for explaning the tpr ,, on another note are you or any one else making money betting maidens? I'm having some success with rdss// turfsup
Thank You Turtsup
I never was much good at maidens. That is not to say you can not win with Phase 1 in maiden races. But my problem is fining races with less than 2 FTS oor races were everybody has at least 3 pacelines .
I really only look for some spot plays in maiden races
One is a early horse who in its last line had the lead into the stretch but collapsed, Now it come right back and is in a favorable post and early pace match up advantage. The other spot play is a SAR work out - not too fast
The third is one I picked up from Hoof, That is I look for horses who have
come within 1 length of winning in their life past performances
In race 6 today at Parx I get the 2 and 3 horses
Bill V.
07-18-2016, 10:05 AM
Really nice of you to share your excellent work with us
Thank you
Bill V.
07-18-2016, 10:09 AM
Thank You Mitch and Mick
and thanks for the nice private message
good skill
Bill
shoeless
07-18-2016, 07:40 PM
Thank you Bill for all the hard work
turfsup
07-19-2016, 11:38 PM
DEAR LATEKICK THANKS FOR YOUR RESPONSE REGARDING Maidens , I was wondering are you using rdss or some other program/ also are you using other info besides rdss screens? also anyone that makes money on maidens please comment//// thanks turfsup
Latekick
07-20-2016, 02:09 AM
DEAR LATEKICK THANKS FOR YOUR RESPONSE REGARDING Maidens , I was wondering are you using rdss or some other program/ also are you using other info besides rdss screens? also anyone that makes money on maidens please comment//// thanks turfsup
Yes i am using only RDSS.
I've found that unless one is very selective about which maiden races to play you will end up losing in the long run. I'm with Bill that races with 2 more unknown factors should be passed. But that's up to each person to decide. Let your records be you guide.
Tim
Latekick
07-20-2016, 10:39 PM
I've found that unless one is very selective about which maiden races to play you will end up losing in the long run. I'm with Bill that races with 2 more unknown factors should be passed. But that's up to each person to decide. Let your records be you guide.
Tim
I agree with Tim on this one. The only time i will ever look at Maiden races with 2 or more unknown factors is if it is a race required to play in a contest, other than that they are automatic passes.
A quote from Bill V.
"We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing
who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on".
My friend Jeff (shoeless) introduced me to Parx, also Bill, favorite track.
Before I even consider to invest money in a track that I don't know nothing about, I need to run a track profile to see which one of my three (3) contenders is winning and how the winners is performing. What I mean by performing "which of my 3 contenders was leading at the 2nd call or position less than 4th".
A small data sample, about 100 races for each distance would give me a small indication of what I'm looking for, I haven't reach that number but for what I see it looks promising.
At 6f, after 32 races one of my contender was leading at the 2c 14 times and won the race.
One of my contender was 2nd position at the 2c 6 times, and won the race
One of my contender was 3rd position at the 2c 7 times, and won the race.
It seems to me that my contenders do retain enough energy to win the race.
27 races @ 6f out of 32 the winner was position less than 4th at the 2c, and the average winner paid $15.48. I don't invest in winners, DD and PK3 is my forte.
Races are won E or OTE. If you are able to devise a method that incorporate 3 E horses and 3 L horses and win about 32% of the time at the average winner of $15.48, you will make money.
The caveat is what numbers to use to find successfully the 3 Early and Late horses.
shoeless
06-21-2017, 08:24 PM
Nice job GL45, I remember when you only played exactas
TPR thread has been quiet for quite sometime
Jeff
Bill V.
06-22-2017, 11:28 AM
Nice report Pino
Yes , I use 3 factors when rating the top 3 EPR horses
1 running style ( visual )
2 " " computer designation based on med energy %
3. Pressure from the pure Early runners
Jeff. I got side tracked with energy and recently Entropy
I have been using tpr for most of my betting but those oldies are enchanting ,
Bill
Bill,
are you able to find the top three LPR, if you do, can you find a way to combine your EPR contenders with the LPR and come up with the top three between all of them, and keeping a track profile would give you an idea who"s winning of your top three horses.
example today at GP 6-22 had 2 DD. race 1 and race 2 followed by race 8 race 9.
race 1 my contenders 1-2-6
second leg (race 2) contenders were 2-3-4
won the DD and paid $23.2 for a buck.
the idea is to find the winner between the top 3E and the top 3L and extrapolate the final 3 top horses.
also I consider the loosing streak in order to maintain a sufficient bankroll
for the DD, my longest loosing streak is 14 races, which is at least $126 for DD bankroll.
the PK3 loosing streak so far is 16 races @ $13.5 a bet i need to have bankroll of $216.
that is my simple why to use the MU and be some what successful.
shoeless
06-22-2017, 08:48 PM
Bill
That's ok you did enough hard work on this thread.
Energy is a nice program and sorry I didn't start using it
earlier, it really does do a good job of doing the match up
for you. It must be a lot easier with RDSS as you can download
to it and not have to do all that typing.
Jeff
lost the second DD (races 8 an 9) yesterday @ GP, won few $. A small winning day after all.
shoeless
06-23-2017, 11:56 PM
GL45
How would you go about using TPR in your handicapping routine?
Jeff
I don't handicapping anymore, Equsim does for me. I don't formulate TPR numbers from Pace Make the Race, BRIS numbers are as good.
partsnut
06-24-2017, 02:37 PM
Hi Pino,
You are right.
No need for extensive handicapping.
Data mining at the track you favor with provide you with the information you seek.
You can or hopefully, you have developed a method that fits your type of play.
Because we have a long established friendship, we can discuss this.
If I can be of help to you, specifically, I will gladly do so.
You can also befriend me on Facebook if you choose and look at some of my recent results.
I played a few small exactas a Gulfsteam today.
I couldn't find much value there.
I hope you are feeling well.
shoeless
06-24-2017, 02:45 PM
Good to see you posting Parts hope all is well with you
Glad to see you and GL45 have developed a method to suit you and we know that
Bill V has. Have to admit after 50 years of handicapping I still have not but seem to
be doing better using Energy program. Like I said before typing in is bit of a pain and
would be much easier using RDSS to export info.
Seems like old times with you, GL45 and Bill V
partsnut
06-24-2017, 04:56 PM
Thanks Jeff,
Had only 1 winner out of 3 races but it was a good one.
I cleared the day with a $1.00 exacta.
The (5) seemed to have the edge but was not a dominant horse
so I looked for a win, place situation at a low cost.
Bill V.
06-24-2017, 05:11 PM
it's all about BELIEVING
Nice work Bill (Partsnut) excellent day for you, glad to see you betting.
Jeff, Pino, and Bill - It's all about believing ng what you do and the method you feel best at.
I have been playing Monmouth today, TPR only- Just the turf races,
In the sprint which was taken off the turf, I passed.
In the next race, There was a $100 winner Yet I passed this on too.
The reason? nobody had the strong EPR/LPR pattern I look for.
Next up was Race 9. The 4 looks good, too good, so I passed. The 4 wins and pays
$3.60.
It makes all the difference when you believe what you believe in
Go get them with your methods
43572
partsnut
06-24-2017, 06:59 PM
Bill V.
"It makes all the difference when you believe what you believe in
Go get them with your method."
Bill, I like your thinking.
There are many ways to skin a cat.::)
When you get down to South Florida
let me know.
You would enjoy it here.
Good food and plenty of action.( all types)
;)
shoeless
06-25-2017, 12:42 AM
Bill V
That's what I admire about you that ever since I met you which has
been quite awhile now you have stuck with what works for you and
done well with it
Tell Dad hi for me and I always wish him the very best
Jeff
Bill V.
06-25-2017, 06:33 PM
Hey, Bill, Thank you. I stay mostly on the west coast anymore.
About the furthest I get eastbound is Tucson AZ.
If I ever change lanes and do the south-east. I will look you up
Jeff Thank you for your loyalty. Not only have you been with me here at Pace and Cap from day 1, you were on of the original members of VDC Messenger.
Nice Hit with Energy in race 10 today at Monmouth,
Joe Bravo and all. Brings back lots of nice summer memories for me
Jeff, I hit this one in race 11 yesterday
Like Tug McGraw said in 1973 for the amazing Mets
You gotta believe
43576
43575
Very nice score Bill.
Tim G
Mitch44
06-25-2017, 09:24 PM
Nice strike Bill, congrats.
Mitch44
shoeless
06-26-2017, 07:51 PM
Bill
Way to go nice hit
Jeff
in which part of the race the winner came from
Bill V.
07-13-2017, 03:09 PM
in which part of the race the winner came from
Hi Pino
Are you asking me my thoughts about the race/my readouts from MTH a few post back
thanks
Bill
In general, any race at any distance.
Lets start with: a race can be early or ote, and we know an early race is a race where the winner can wire the field or can be a length or half length from the leader. OTE is a race where the winner is somewhat position in the back of the field.
My question is in what winning position the winner will be most of the time regardless if the race runs early or OTE.
Do I make any sense
Bill V.
07-13-2017, 09:33 PM
Pino
I don't have access to my Parx or Del Mar/SantaAinta records. They are on a laptop I no longer use, Someday I will rescue the data.
From memory and just from years of watching races, I would guess the winner to be amongst the top 4 position horses at the second call
Anytime I modeled position at the second call, It was very rare to have anything over 5th. It did happen but not very often.
Bill
BINGO!!!!
top 3 is much better, save money.
That is why you are winning.
I wonder how many people keep a track profile. Parx for me is a gold mine. Jeff made a believer out of me.
Some people don't believe in the POWER MOVE I do.
Race #11 at GP yesterday, horse #1 Minute Madness won at 6 furlong with a power move that make you speechless 8-5-3-1 watch the video and take notes. Paid $46.80.
shoeless
07-16-2017, 10:20 AM
GL45
What is power move?
Good job at Parx
Parx is a very consistent track to play. I have stated that races at 8.3 tend to have the most shifts in running styles. I noted in another post where horses were winning from further back at that time then at other distances. Shortly after that it changed back to favoring ep horses. As GL pointed having a working model and profile alerted me to these changes and led to some juicy payoffs.
Tim G
Jeff, try to search Richie's post on the MU thread about the Power Move, maybe Lt1 can explain to you better than I do.
Mitch44
07-16-2017, 12:19 PM
Here you go Jeff:
"07-16-2007, 11:09 AM
Jim Bradshaw’s “Power Line” - What is it?
A “Power Line” is the fastest pace of race showing where the horse finished
competitively. Regardless of track or where it is in the past performances."
Mitch44
shoeless
07-16-2017, 12:35 PM
Mitch Thanks
Mitch44
07-16-2017, 12:54 PM
Here you go Jeff: The power move:
“Power Moves” are moves that horses make during the race that show they can overtake
other horse. Many horses show more than one “power move” during a race. (Example 9-
4-1-1.) The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths.
Although, I like better “Power Moves” the race is longer today and the Four horse should
win the race and reverse the Tandem.
The Hat"
NOTE: Power moves are indicated for the horses on the original screen and are underlined plus color coded for easier identification.
Mitch 44
shoeless
07-16-2017, 06:04 PM
Thanks again
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