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Bill V.
04-26-2016, 10:44 PM
There are 3 fractions, not two, Tim LT1 said it best in his dead on observation It takes two fractions. No single part of the race is "THE" rating

How can a Sustained horse win ?.
It can win if it can be close enough to the fastest EPR rated horses. It need to be in position at the second call to over take the Early, Early Pressers and Pressers,

It takes at least fractions 2 and often all 3

This is a nice winner today at Parx race 6

Here is my work up.
First here are the conditions.

40491

Bill V.
04-26-2016, 10:46 PM
I added my thoughts in notes in the lower right corner of each horses PP's

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Bill V.
04-26-2016, 10:48 PM
5 6 7

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40497

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Bill V.
04-26-2016, 10:53 PM
My readouts and thoughts

40499

I showed in a couple of my horses the EPR ratings they ran against
they were over 92
Now look at today who has the best EPR ? Its horse 5 with a 90.5
The 2 is 2 points or lengths behind
The 4 is 4 lengths behind
The 3 is 7 lengths back is 7 too much ? It has the good LPR 94
The 1 ! It will be 11 lengths back. It ran its pace line race against a 79 epr (it was on the lead) There is no way the 1 will see a early pace of 79 today. The top 3 TPR horse are 5 3 and 4.
The top 3 VDC are 1 3 4

My bets 3 and 4 A Sustained and a Sustained presser
Why? because they will be close enough to a moderate 90 EPR pace .
With strong over 92 LPR ratings can over take the EP and Pressers

I'm sorry it is only $15 You won't look like the smartest guy in the room.
but I will take this every day

Bill

40500

lone speed
04-27-2016, 12:39 AM
My readouts and thoughts

40499

I showed in a couple of my horses the EPR ratings they ran against
they were over 92
Now look at today who has the best EPR ? Its horse 5 with a 90.5
The 2 is 2 points or lengths behind
The 4 is 4 lengths behind
The 3 is 7 lengths back is 7 too much ? It has the good LPR 94
The 1 ! It will be 11 lengths back. It ran its pace line race against a 79 epr (it was on the lead) There is no way the 1 will see a early pace of 79 today. The top 3 TPR horse are 5 3 and 4.
The top 3 VDC are 1 3 4

My bets 3 and 4 A Sustained and a Sustained presser
Why? because they will be close enough to a moderate 90 EPR pace .
With strong over 92 LPR ratings can over take the EP and Pressers

I'm sorry it is only $15 You won't look like the smartest guy in the room.
but I will take this every day

Bill

40500
Bill V...

Great example and great analysis...!:)

I am commenting on your analysis of this race as it pertains to analyzing the Kentucky Derby or any other race.

It behooves one to focus on the energy distribution in context of the early pace and NOT exclusively on one fraction exclusively like the LPR or the final fraction.

So many discussions or message posts list the closing fractions of Derby contenders from their Derby prep races that they lose sight of analyzing the early pace that they ran against. Sometimes the best closer is the horse closest to the early pace.

The early pace consists of two fractions and the energy expended to reach the 2nd fraction or the 6 furlong marker in conjunction with the last fraction is more important than focusing on the final fraction.

Example:

Horse A: 49.0 for 4F and 112.2(fifths) for 6F and 29.3 for the final fraction
29.3 for final fraction seems impressive but horse A did not exert much energy for his early pace expenditure.

Horse B: 47.0 for 4F and 1:10.3 for 6F and 31.3 for the final fraction. Now even though this horse ran his final fraction 2 seconds slower than horse A. This horse exerted much faster early pace fractions that are two seconds faster than horse A. This horse should win this matchup; should they run against each other.

Thanks again for your work-up of this race.

Mitch44
04-27-2016, 08:18 AM
Great workup Bill. I would have used L 4 on the # 7 however it would have made no difference. I get the POR the same as you if using only TPR but normally I get it from the original screen when looking at lines to select. Regardless getting it is the main point as few pay attention to it at all. I doubt many here caught what you did or how you got it.
As I said in a previous post its a hidden class drop that the public is unaware of, but then again that's good for us.

The better horses do run 2 good fractions in a row. That is they carry their speed further and also decelerate the least to include E types. In TPR this is a little harder to detect but a better EPR helps for S types etc. , that is not being way out of it that might indicate a one run closer. In RDSS I use HE to determine this. But it can be done in TPR.

The # 4 also was the best TPR. Another separator that I've found to be good is horses that are very close in TPR that have the better LPR have momentum vs. deceleration and are the better horses for separation in the majority of races. In this ex. look at the 1 & 2 ,one length difference in TPR but the 1 is accelerating and the 2 is decelerating. Choice the 1. Ditto with the 3 & 5 ,one length diff. in TPR but the 3 is accelerating and the 5 is decelerating. Choice the 3 over the 5. With that you come up with 4,3,1. I don't normally use this for the whole race but I do use it as a separator for CLOSE HORSES AND TIES IN TPR. A down and dirty look at deceleration or Entropy? V/DC.
Great work up Bill.
Mitch44

shoeless
04-27-2016, 08:45 PM
Bill,

Nice workup and hit

Bill V.
04-27-2016, 08:49 PM
I took your figures and converted the times to phase 1 EPR and LPR ratings
These number are raw, so lets say they both ran on the same track and distance and the dtv was 17 or 0.
I made the distance 8.5. Lets say horse A is a sustained Horse B went wire to wire

Horse A Sustained 112.2 = 83 EPR
29.3 = 99 LPR = 182 TPR

Horse B Early 110.3 = 92 EPR
31.3 = 89 LPR = 181 TPR

Yes in a match race I would take horse B
Because horse A would run positionaly, In a match race. Horse A
would not run a 29.3 LPR because It would use more energy
early trying to keep up. In a race with other horses mixed in If nobody can keep up with horse B early, It will still conserve energy,
and horse A now has to pass horses . So Its so important that the LPR is earned against today's pace of race.

Very nice post Lone Speed
Just looking at a LPR alone would trick many people

Bill V.
04-27-2016, 08:53 PM
Thanks Mitch
I asked Ted to include the VDC readout on the TPR screen cause I use it as a secondary factor, once I see the phase 1 readouts

GS
Bill

Mitch44
04-28-2016, 09:08 AM
It'll be a great addition to TPR screen and help those who can't see it otherwise. Myself I love the old Entropy readout as it makes better sense to me and is more easily understood by me. With it I can see separation better than V/DC.

I use V/DC however don't rely on the rankings as there are too many ties. And the 0.5 vs O.8 stuff drives me crazy, obviously the 0.5 is better but I can't visualize the difference or how much difference is there. I wish it were the same but in a different format. Anyway that's on my wish list. I'm big on gaps but don't find any or very few in V/DC. Somewhat like FPS( feet per second) use to drive me insane trying to determine the differences in lengths.

Mitch44

Bill V.
04-28-2016, 09:32 AM
Hey Mitch
You got me remembering good old entropy I agree with you. I Loved entropy
I still like the format Ted uses. I do see smaller numbers better then I saw in the entropy style. 945 is better than
920 , But I think Doc went to the rankings. And ties because people were eliminating good winners because the numbers were close. People would model and find a entropy of 950
would likely be. "par," and pass up double digit winners
because there readout wold be near but above or below par.

lone speed
04-28-2016, 10:06 AM
Entropy was great in getting the second place horse and getting rid of the "one move" horse but it was a lot of disk-swapping and manual data entries..

I believe Entropy is still valid and important in analyzing a race correctly in conjunction with total energy since most races consist of two parts. The fight for the early pace and the horses who can close against today's early pace match up.

Regarding your race in this thread.

I did not looked into your race in depth so I am only taking assumptions.

One:
It looks like there was no true fulcrum hence I am guessing that the top ranked horses in "Factor X" included the winner in this match up.

Two:
Regarding #4 More Hundred Acre;

I am guessing that it had the #1 Factor X ranking and the #1 L/ep ranking

These horses that ranked #1 in both factors in a match-up will outrun its ranking in "total energy".... especially in route races....

They are similar to those "Magic Sartin Sustained" horses..

;)

Mitch44
04-28-2016, 10:29 AM
Bill I understand what your saying with the 945 vs. 920 etc. I was referring to the original one where he ranked each category and came up with a line score such as 10,12,15,17 etc. I believe it was handed out at the seminar in Saratoga around 1990 or so. Entropy also evolved later with some additions that helped downgrade those slow horses that is included in V/DC.

Did love it in the ranking mode as it was easily registered in my small brain. Doc always said the difference between any number is always one therefore it didn't display the true difference. He is correct on that but for me it makes more sense that 0.5 vs. 0.8 etc. Same thing but whole numbers to me are more distinctive. Plus I don't think most would get all those 945 & 920 etc ,It would be like lost in the woods and V/DC is the same for most as they just don't understand it. I believe it could be cloned to a more easily understood readout such as the primary line score.
Mitch44

lone speed
04-28-2016, 11:48 AM
I worked the race using your pacelines, Bill...

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Mitch44
04-28-2016, 12:51 PM
lone speed: Beautiful screen shot. Haven't seen the old Energy Generator in awhile. I always liked the Entropy and SPN ( Sartin Pace Number) in here. It would be nice if Ted included them in the upcoming new version.

Mitch44

Bill V.
04-28-2016, 01:56 PM
Hi Mitch
How about the DECL numbers from the velocity POR - POH tabs


40523

Bill V.
04-28-2016, 01:57 PM
Thanks for the screen shot. Wow that was a nice program
Mitch would you like to see the actual vdc number
The deceler, number

Mitch44
04-28-2016, 03:20 PM
Hi Bill; The DECL is a good number and should be used by more ,especially beginners. I also think it would be better placed on the TPR + EL screen as it was an advanced concept
in PMTR but in a more simplistic form such as -16,-8 or +10 etc. Heck if updating beaten lengths why not the original look at deceleration.

Its a great factor and that's the rub with it, in that its a single factor whereas V/DC and Entropy considers several factors to measure deceleration from different parts of the race therefore a more comprehensive approach. No different than looking at a single factor in the Primary LS verses looking at the LS or all the key factors.

Bill I'm not sure I've ever seen the V/DC numbers but have the old Entropy numbers which are probably similar. The Doc added a caveat to the old Entropy in V/DC which makes it superior. I sure don't want to go backwards. For me at least if it ranked the factors in it and came up with a LS it would be clearer or an average of one number such as 92.7 therefore the gaps and differences are much clearer and it could be better employed. The final display really doesn't make much difference as most know little or nothing about it unless they have been around a long time. Numbers on a scale of 100 makes the most sense to most people and Americans. Probably why they like Beyer's numbers so much.

Mitch44