View Full Version : Woodbine notes Saturday 4/30
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 12:51 PM
I wll be doing thiis live
I will be looking at woodbine today, I will be trying to get a "feel" for the track
as today's race 10 is the match up contest race
I don't have too much time before race 1 so I will just take some notes
The top 5 TPR last line = 5 3 1 2 6
The fulcrum is # 3 89.3 = 46.3
SAR workout horses
#1. # 4 and the 5 has a late 5 furlong work that woodbine just reportrd on 4/24
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:01 PM
segs and TPR
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:03 PM
off odds
3 2/1
5 5/2
6 5/2
One of Doc's guidelines 3 horses at or under 5/2
pass
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:10 PM
Race 1 5 furlongs
1st fraction 23.7
EP 47.16
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:22 PM
The 2 is scratched
The top 5 TPR last line 1 3 6 4 7
There is no fulcrum
SAR work out # 6 and 7
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Hoof 11
04-30-2016, 01:26 PM
Hi Bill
The 2 isn't scratched in R2.
GL
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:34 PM
Hi Bill
The 2 isn't scratched in R2.
GL
Thanks Hoof
I must have been looking at the girls again
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:36 PM
with the 2
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:44 PM
The 6 with the SAR workout overtakes the 4 late
I got a small exacta
sorry for the mix up with the 2
Times
1st = 22.53
EPR =
$10.30 for a dollar :D
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Hoof 11
04-30-2016, 01:45 PM
From the info i have so far, the sun and warm temperature slows the surface down, look for horses coming from off the pace today. If there is complete cloud cover, look for “E’s” and “EP’s”.
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:51 PM
From the info i have so far, the sun and warm temperature slows the surface down, look for horses coming from off the pace today. If there is complete cloud cover, look for “E’s” and “EP’s”.
This is fun , I will focus on the E's and EP's
and I see were I made my mistake On the tv monitors here at Del Mar
They are showing 2 lines
Line 1 is live odds
Line 2 is double payouts or ex will pays. I saw a - under horse 2 line
must have been the double will pays. I thought the top line was the
ML and the second line was the off odds
Solution = Fire up the Tote on RDSS2.1
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 01:57 PM
7 furlongs CL10 N3-L 3 +
Top 5 TPR last line
6 4 5 2 1
No fulcrum
SAR workouts
# 3 # 5 #7
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:06 PM
Segs and TPR
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:11 PM
i went with the 3 and 8 Center lines at 7 furlongs
raceman5
04-30-2016, 02:18 PM
I am reading the VDC screen right it looks like 8-6-3?
Bob
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:22 PM
I missed my win bets but I got the exacta
1st 23.75
EPR 47.61
My top rated TPR and LPR in the "p" group # 6 wins at 7/1
Since it was # 1 in last line tpr I added it to my exacta and it got me 47.00
and a41 profit.
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:23 PM
I am reading the VDC screen right it looks like 8-6-3?
Bob
Nice exacta from the VDc :)
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:32 PM
Race 4 is a low level MC10 for the fillies
The 7 is a FTS
Top 5 TPR ( last line )
9 8 5 6 1
The fulcrum is horse 9 84.4 46.4
SAR work out horses
#2 #4 # 11
Hoof 11
04-30-2016, 02:34 PM
Race 4
Contenders - 7-4-1
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:43 PM
Really spredding out here 2 7 8 9 4
Readouts
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raceman5
04-30-2016, 02:47 PM
4-8-9
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 02:55 PM
The 5 is right there Ahhhh
oh well I lost cause I only had the 2 on top
Let the 5 go at 35/1
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:01 PM
3 first time starters
I'm going to take a break
No SAR workouts
but some 5 furlongs
#1 #2 #6 The 6 and 3 also have the HWL1
time to dine :D
MikeB
04-30-2016, 03:01 PM
I wll be doing thiis live
I will be looking at woodbine today, I will be trying to get a "feel" for the track
as today's race 10 is the match up contest race
Woodbine replaced its old poly track with Tapeta this year. The Woodbine web site has an article with a round table discussion of handicappers talking about how they play Tapeta.
http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/RaceTrackNewsPage.aspx?NewsId=da3a168f-0d84-43f7-90d5-ef4afb88a30f&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
shoeless
04-30-2016, 03:10 PM
Bill,
I guess because the meet started this month it seems your
dealing with horses coming off of a long layoff
Jeff
Mitch44
04-30-2016, 03:10 PM
Good luck every one with this one. I have to go out to present an award to a JROTC high school and dinner etc. Wish I could participate, catch the next one.
Mitch 44
Hoof 11
04-30-2016, 03:16 PM
I would have to go with the 7 here.
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:16 PM
meat loaf special mmmmm
got to love Del Mar Race Place
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:27 PM
Yep Jeff I am proceeding with caution LOL just betting $1 exactas
and 2 win bets but I'm doing well so far.
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:29 PM
Race 6 is a state allowance with some extra conditions
everybody has just 1 win
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:31 PM
Good luck every one with this one. I have to go out to present an award to a JROTC high school and dinner etc. Wish I could participate, catch the next one.
Mitch 44
Thanks Mitch
Next time I am home off the road for sure or as soon as I have a day off on the road
I will do it again
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:40 PM
Top 5 TPR last line
7 4 2 6 1
#4 is the fulcrum 88.0 46.2
SAR workouts
#3 #5 has a 5F
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:46 PM
Win bets 7 and 6
spread in the ex with 4 and 2
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 03:59 PM
The E and EP horses make the trifecta
Originally Posted by Hoof 11 View Post
From the info i have so far, the sun and warm temperature slows the surface down, look for horses coming from off the pace today. If there is complete cloud cover, look for “E’s” and “EP’s”.
40 cents on the exacta :)
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:06 PM
last race the top E went wire to wire at 6.5
Race 7 is also 6.5 furlongs
OC 62.5
Here is the dashboard conditions
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:08 PM
8 and 9 are scratched
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:17 PM
2 wire ?
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:19 PM
5F workout for # 5
#4 HWLI
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:29 PM
The 3 has plenty left in the 3rd fraction
wins at 6/1
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:32 PM
Race 8 is a short field OC 80N1-6m
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:37 PM
Top 5 TPR last line -- only 5 horses in the race :cool:
1 5 4 2 3
No fulcrum
SAR work # 1
Hwl1 #1 #4
5F #1 #2
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:42 PM
short field first non maiden route of the day
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 04:44 PM
Opps horse 5 is in the Sustained group but it is a lone presser
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 05:01 PM
The top 3 low odds horses are in the money
good race to pass
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 05:16 PM
Just from skimming and getteing the running styles and top 5 TPR I think race 9 is a pass to
Horse 1 is scratched and horse 3 has no pace line it's only race, for a race it won !
So I am only left with 5 horses coming from all distance and of course long layoffs
Race 9 is a AL59 N1-X for 3+F
Horse 1 Scratched
Horse 2 3 wins in 17 races
Horse 3 1 win 1 race
Horse 4 2 wins 15 races
Horse 5 1 win 8 races
Horse 6 1 win 16 races
Horse 7 2 wins 11 races
SAR workout
#2 #3
HWLI workout
2 3 6
Top 5 TPR last line
7 2 4 6 5
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 05:24 PM
With the 3 a big ?
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 05:34 PM
The Early 6 ran well and hangs on for place the 7 wins at 8/5
The 2 almost got place and me a nice exacta
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 05:39 PM
This is the Match Up contest race
Its a 5 furlong 6500 claiming race for 3+
The top 5 TPR last line
1,10, 2, 3, 6
Fulcrum horse is # 1 93.5 45.3
the 9 has a 5f workout
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 06:09 PM
This is whatI posted over in the match up contest
Horse 1 Early line 1
Horse 2 sustained last line used to run early
Horse 3 presser line 1
Horse 4 Sus line 1
Horse 5 NF used to be something at Parx
Horse 6 SP line 2
Horse 7 Early Line 2
Horse 8 Scr
Horse 9 EP Line 3
Horse 10 Early dropping off win
running out of time so quickly
6 and 9
Top 3 TPR
6 1 9
Top 3 VDC
9 1 6
The 6 wins the 1 places so I got a small profit.
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Bill V.
04-30-2016, 06:17 PM
It looks like there was a good balance of early and sustained and pressers winning, I made a nice profit thanks to the big exacta and hitting a few smaller ones , I bet very small because of the layoff issues
Thanks for looking in
Bill
Bill V.
04-30-2016, 11:27 PM
Here are some facts from my day at Woodbine
I wanted to record how the Winner and Ex came from the top 5 last line TPR , Pace line TPR and VDC
Top 5 TPR last line
Race 1. 5 3 1 2 6 winner #6 $7.80 Ex 65 $13.65
Race 2. 1 3 4 6 7 Winner # 6 $7.00 Ex. 6,4 $10.30
Race 3. 6 4 5 2 1 Winner # 6 $16.50 Ex. 6,3 $47
Race 4. 9 8 5 6 1 Winner #2 miss Ex 2.5
Race 5 Pass
Race 6 7 4 2 6 1 Winner #4 $3.90 Ex. 4,2 $6.40
Race 7 1 3 2 7 5 Winner #3 $15.00 Ex. Miss
Race 8, Only 5 horses NA
Race 9. 7 2 4 6 5 Winner # 7 $5.50 Ex. 7 6 $17.40
Race 10. 1,10, 2, 3, 6 Winner #6 $6.80 Ex. 6,1 $12.5
Winner top 2 4 times
Ex Top 3 1 time
Ex in top 4 3 times
Ex in top 5 5 times
after picking pace lines
Top 3 TPR
Race 1. 5 3 6 winner #6 $7.80 Ex 65 $13.65
Race 2. 4 1 3 Winner # 6 miss
Race 3. 3 6 4 Winner # 6 $16.50 Ex. 6,3 $47
Race 4. 4 8 5 Winner # 2 miss
Race 5. Pass
Race 6. 7 4 2 Winner #4 $3.90 Ex. 4,2 $6.40
Race 7. 7 1 3 Winner #3 $15.00 Ex. Miss
Race 8 . NA only 5 horses
Race 9. 7 2 5 Winner # 7 $5.50 Ex. Miss
Race 10. 6 1 9 Winner #6 $6.80 Ex. 6,1 $12.5
Top 3 VDC
Race 1. 5 3 6 winner #6 $7.80 Ex 65 $13.65
Race 2 . 4 1 3 Winner # 6 miss
Race 3. 8 6 3 Winner # 6 $16.50 Ex. 6,3 $47
Race 4. 4 8 9 Winner # 2 miss
Race 5. Pass
Race 6. 4 7 2 Winner #4 $3.90 Ex. 4,2 $6.40
Race 7. 2 3 6 Winner #3 $15.00 Ex. Miss
Race 8 . NA only 5 horses
Race 9. 2 6 7 Winner # 7 $5.50 Ex. 7 6 $17.40
Race 10. 9 1 6 Winner #6 $6.80 Ex. 6,1 $12.5
Running styles
Race 1 # 6 EP
Race 2 # 6 Sus
Race 3 #6 Presser
Race 4 #2 Early
Race 5 Pass
Race 6 #4 EP
Race 7 #3 Sus
Race 8 #1 Sus
Race 9 #7 Press
Race 10 # 6 SP
Early - 1
Early Presser 2
Presser 2
Sus Presser 1
Sus 3
Mitch44
05-01-2016, 10:20 AM
Bill I would like to make a comment on race # 6 : The # 7 gaps the others on TPR & total energy and is a play . Now for a players 2nd horse the # 2, 4 & 6 are all very close on total energy LPR and TPR. What to do. Normally I would take the better LPR in this case but their so close its not much help.
This is where the new RDSS 2.1 comes in with the V/DC added to the screen. V/DC clearly separated the #2, 4 & 6. Ranking then 4,2,6. This would give you a final ranking of 7-4-2-6. A great result of the winner, ex.& tri. The payoff here is meaningless as this lesson applies to all races and this race could have been the springboard to a rolling DD or P3 or P4. We can't control the payoff.
V/DC measures more than just DCL or 3rd FR deceleration and is a much greater tool to use. If you have it than use it. Far too many fail to use the more advanced readouts in RDSS no matter the version, in many aspects of the game to include picking pace lines.
Of course the question now or the contrarian approach is going to tell me it won't work every time. And no it won't as nothing does however if you keep records you'll find it is an amazing readout and if you had that record I guarantee you would use it more.
Great job on capping at WO Bill, nice lessons.
Mitch44
Bill V.
05-01-2016, 02:31 PM
Hey Mitch
Today race 3 Woodbine CL 40 N3-L
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Top 5 TPR last line
7 4 5 1 3
fulcrum horse #7 88.7
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SAR workouts
#2 #4 #5 #7
Running styles pace lines and PP's
Bill V.
05-01-2016, 02:55 PM
horses 1 2 3 4
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Bill V.
05-01-2016, 02:56 PM
5 6 7
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Bill V.
05-01-2016, 03:05 PM
The top 3
TPR
1 7 4
VDC
7 1 2-5 tied all very close all all under 1.00
I eliminated the 5 because it was a early router but the 4 7 and 1 had better EPR ratings
I boxed the 1 and 7 I went with the 2 because of its good VDC ratings and EP style and 2nd best LPR
The 2 wins the race at 20/1 I wish I had bet it to win but I got the beauty exacta :)
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Hoof 11
05-01-2016, 05:47 PM
Running styles
Race 1 # 6 EP
Race 2 # 6 Sus
Race 3 #6 Presser
Race 4 #2 Early
Race 5 Pass
Race 6 #4 EP
Race 7 #3 Sus
Race 8 #1 Sus
Race 9 #7 Press
Race 10 # 6 SP
Early - 1
Early Presser 2
Presser 2
Sus Presser 1
Sus 3
Hi Bill
I understand that Running Styles can be subjective, but i have to disagree with you on races 2-3-6-10.
Race 1 # 6 EP
Race 2 # 6 P – Horse was 3+ lengths back at the first 2 call points.
Race 3 #6 EP – Horse was within 2 lengths of the lead at first 2 call points
Race 4 #2 E
Race 5 #4 S
Race 6 #4 E – Horse wired the field
Race 7 #3 S
Race 8 #1 S
Race 9 #7 P
Race 10 # 6 P – mid pack 5 lengths back
Bill V.
05-01-2016, 11:43 PM
Hi Hoof
I agree with Doc We don't pick our contenders from the result charts
We look at past performances.
yes You could call horse 6's win yesterday a pressing effort but That is based on the match up in a race we did not know would turn out that way before the fact,
I mark my running styles based mostly on two things
Positions and the fulcrum pace
I also look at the break and see how the horse usually runs to the first call
by position.
I use the guidelines from PMTR
Pace Makes The Race Guidelines
Sustained< These horses run in the back half of the field and are usually morse than 4 lengths behind at the second call in a sprint,
and 5 in a route
I look mostly at position
This horse shows 3 plus races
In line 1 in a 7 horse field it was 6th at the first call and 6th at the second call
In line 2 In a 7 horse field it was 4th and 3rd
In line 5 ( turf) in a 11 horse field it was 7th and 7th
It has run against 87 horse in its last 10 races
Its total positions in the first fraction = 59
Its total Positions at the second call = 57
Yes by beaten lengths its has been close but its still closer to the back of the field than the front This horse in its best races is pressing the pressers
What I also look at is the break position
Look how often the 6 breaks 1st or second but then backs up to the back half of the field, Even yesterday it broke 3rd but went back to 4th
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Bill V.
05-02-2016, 12:05 AM
Race 3
Yes I would have called this one a EP If today was a route.
But
since its plus races are all routes
and its two sprints it showed no ability too be up close, I looked at the POR it has been runnning against = SLOW
In today's race there was no fulcrum The 2 would have qualified except the distance of its last line was only 5.5 furlongs
I figured about a 46.5 EPR and the 6 would be behind a few horses in today's sprint.
Again we don't pick lines from result charts but It did break 4th and went back to 6th then to 3rd at the second call.
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Bill V.
05-02-2016, 12:14 AM
Yes we could call this one a E. It did go wire to wire in its win
and again yesterday
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Bill V.
05-02-2016, 12:17 AM
Race 10 Even in its result chart to me this is a sustained runner
It was 4th 4 back in a 5 furlong race in the stretch
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Mitch44
05-02-2016, 06:19 AM
Missed the last one Bill, by the time I was aware of it it had already gone off. Still having a problem logging into my Twinspires account. Something now with a certificate not being allowed etc.
FWIW I don't use the visual for the ESP of a horse, however matchup cappers depend on it. I'm a firm believer in the computer designation of a runners ESP. E.g. % median. A horse can go wire to wire and not be an early horse . % median is much more accurate and employs a consistent approach , especially where controversy occurs which will happen such as this example. Basically there are two approaches to this: visual and % median or the computer which has been thoroughly tested.
Mitch44
Bill V.
05-02-2016, 11:47 AM
I see what you are saying Mitch Doc did away with visual matching and went to percentage of the horses total energy for the ESP I look at both
plus the sticks on the Phase 1 TPR screen
About a visual running style,
I really am just looking at positions by eye ball scan
I already have issues with data providers, especially with beaten lengths, If they say a horse is 6.5 back can I trust it ? Well they probably guess or "average" based on whatever,
At least with position, I feel they have a better chance they get that part right.
I have been reading the Doc's advance concepts piece in PMTR
I see were he was using percent early which was the rating before medium energy, The formula EPR/TPR example EPR 85 / TPR 175 = 48.5
percent med is F1%+ F2%
Example from The velocity POR /POH screens in RDSS2.1
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Mitch44
05-02-2016, 02:19 PM
Your right Bill the Doc did do away with the visual, however I think the matchup cappers depend on it. Let me say most as some may look at the computer designation but few indeed if following "The Hat's" teachings.
I'm well aware of the original % early that was in PMTR but shortly after getting into this I got Synergism and it had the new % median in it, it made sense to me as being better. The DOC was also very much into all 3 FR's. When I started looking at phase 1 & PMTR I had trouble making head or tails of % early. % Med. was more on a scale of 100 and I grasped it much easier vs, % early, also perhaps because I started out on % Med.
I'm not knocking % early and if that's all you have its good but it can't compare to % Med.
I think on the new TPR screen in RDSS 2 % early should be added along with its ESP as determined by that. So should DCL (advanced concept of PMTR be added but the new form of DCL not -12 or +5 etc.)
The problem with the computer generated ESP being at the top of a horses record /PP is few look at that stuff up there and being down on the TPR screen would make it jump off at them more. Actually the best of both worlds would be % early i.e. 51.35% and the ESP from % Med which is more effective, the best of both worlds. The % Med. should be readily available with the adjusted 3 Fr's already done etc. I'm technically not sure how the ESP at the top of a horses chart is obtained and assume its by % Med. A good ? for Ted. It would be best to have only one computer driven ESP in the program as a % Early on one screen and a % Med on another could confuse many. KISS However % Med. isn't generic to TPR.
What your doing Bill with TPR also is correct because the 1st Fr isn't given in TPR and its very smart to consult the horses chart for further decisions. Or like me just except the computer driven ESP etc. Also consulting the sticks on the early / late graphs which I review. At one time they taught (back in early 90's) that a horse can't change its running style and their somewhat locked into that style however over the years and experience has taught me that just isn't true for some horses who can adapt their style for todays matchup. This is easily can be detected on the early / late sticks or graphs. Most can not but there are exceptions , these types tend to win more races also. As I said before I set up my screens specifically to detect this when picking pace lines as I want to pick a line that matches their style and for those duel flexible horses a style for todays matchup they'll encounter.
Mitch44
Hoof 11
05-02-2016, 05:05 PM
My apologies, i should have been more transparent. The “Running Styles” that i have posted are not based on the horse’s “typical” running style, but the surface. I am tracking the surface before i jump in and start betting, that and i prefer the horses to have a couple of recent running lines. I was under the impression that this surface plays fair and that there are no wild bias swings with Tapeta, at this point in time, i have to disagree.
Having said that, you made out fairly well on Saturday, impressive! It looks like you might have a new track to play with, nice work Bill!
Old Arkie Gal
05-20-2016, 05:59 PM
Well done Bill. I have found this and your other TPR discussions to be enlightening and entertaining. Comments by other board members have also been helpful. I am always impressed by variety of approaches that RDSS users take to find their winners. You certainly have your niche.
Pat
Bill V.
05-21-2016, 09:00 AM
Thank you Pat
I am so blessed to have learned from Doc Sartin Jim Bradshaw, and Richie P
they gave me a solid foundation. PMTR has shown me what Doc told me many years ago. Bill keep it simple, Don't try to look at too many factors,
Have fun, Do what works for you,
Bill
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