Adjusted SR in RDSS

[gentz]

I am completely puzzled at times about the adjusted speed ratings in RDSS. It especially seems puzzling when dealing with high class horses. This years Derby has Nyquist a solid favorite and Exaggerator and fairly solid second choice. If you take Nyquists career best SR of 89, and scan the SR's of the rest of the field there are 12 speed figures better than Nyquists best figure. Exaggerators lifetime best was 87. While that matches up well with Nyquist, its way too low compared to other horses. I realize we are dealing with velocity figures, run style, and energy distribution, but if these speed figures in any way play into the velocity figures, all the information they are involved with is possibly not very accurate. American Pharoah was the same way. When entered in the Breeders Cup Classic last year his life time best SR was the 90 he earned in the Arkansas Derby. When scanning the figures of the rest of the horses races, there were 14 figures in the pp's of the rest of the horses higher than the triple crown winners lifetime best. Really? Two of those figures were Frosted's. Four of them belonged to Effinex who AP beat handily. Even though the paceless race helped AP immensely, a horse still has to be able to run fast enough to use the advantage. While we all knew he was fast enough, if you looked at the race for the first time without any previous knowledge of him, one could conclude he wasn't fast enough. These are just two examples of, as far as I'm concerned, terrible handicapping confusion cause by poor speed figures. I realize that SR's are not the end all of handicapping but when you find a pace advantaged horse, you have to know whether he is fast enough to take advantage of it or not.

[DanBoals]

Below is my screenshot from RDSS2

It clearly shows Nyquist as the likely winner, using SR. He is 3 points ahead of the nearest competition.

I feel like everyone should have had Nyquist this year.

Why is Exaggerator so low compared to the other "second tier" horses? Why does Majesto come up so strong on the list? These are the questions I think we should be asking.

[DanBoals]

Gentz...

Could you post your screen shot so others can see what lines you were using and what you are referring to?

[gentz]

I had Nyquist and Exaggerator in a one way exacta using other speed figures. I love RDSS, but have learned in some races not to use the speed figures.

[gentz]

I wasn't referring to pace line selection. It was a general observation of bet speed ratings. If I'm handicapping a race and i know that among the competition there are 12 Speed ratings faster than my horses best figure, I'm going to be a little hesitant to bet regardless of any pace advantage.

[DanBoals]

That certainly makes sense. I used all the 9f races for my final pace lines and Nyquist came out easily on top of those, at least in the BL/BL screen's SR.

I use SR a LOT for my exacta betting, and I have found that as long as a horse is within 5 or so points of the first or second highest, it is a contender for the exacta.

Congrats on getting the exacta in the Derby. I had Nyquist over Gun Runner and Creator, and missed that bet.

Dan

[ClockerDan]

You were right Dan with 4 grade one prep race wins how could he NOT be on top. Are we looking at back to back triple crown winners? Bunnies next out will try but who can keep up with this guy. As for longer who can run farther? Answer NO ONE

[Mitch44]

Some answers to your ? gentz. SR only measure final time and not pace, RDSS measures basically 3 fractions or 3 different SR throughout the race. E.g. 6f race and two horses get an 88 SR. A runs in a race with a pace of 45 and horse B runs in a race with a pace of 45 3/5 th's and both have the same beaten lengths, A is the better horse. SR's don't account for the Pace of the Race( POR).

SR's are not the same for different distances except in theory only, E.g. a SR of 88 at 6F is the same as a SR at 6.5F or 9 F in theory but the SR at longer distances are the better because generally the horse holds its speed longer and can get the distance. Also a horse that has proven the distance with an identical SR vs. one that hasn't is the better horse. The other still has to prove it.

Some SR are better than others with the Beyer being the worse because they use several different humans to make them, therefore there is no unity of effort here (consistency).The only commercial one that includes run-up distances is TrackMaster which RDSS uses. Run-up distances can be crucial to applying variants and track to track adjustments. BRIS SR are very consistent and computer driven.

SR are somewhat old school now. At one time we used them to help pick pace lines but RDSS has much better tools now and their far superior to the old SR + variant. SR's are also dependent on what line you pick, so if you have incorrect lines that'll also contribute to confusion. Using all 3 fractions tend to also smooth out many of these problems such as variants etc. Other tools such as Preceptor measures more than 3 things (about 7 factors to detect moves and are superior to SR's.

Class horses tend to only due what they have to do to win. Amer. Phar. was like this and so is Nyquist so their true ability remains hidden till they come up against better horses such as Amer. Phar. in the BC Classic. Additionally he was only trained for what he had to do but going against older horses with better figures he was trained harder to meet the task and was probably his best ever race. Just getting these horses to go longer requires them to train forward for the TC. Some can handle it and some fall by the wayside. Class is the hardest thing to quantify. Place less emphasis on SR and more on RDSS better readouts as their superior to SR's. Hope this helps.

Mitch44

[lone speed]

I am completely puzzled at times about the adjusted speed ratings in RDSS. It especially seems puzzling when dealing with high class horses. This years Derby has Nyquist a solid favorite and Exaggerator and fairly solid second choice. If you take Nyquists career best SR of 89, and scan the SR's of the rest of the field there are 12 speed figures better than Nyquists best figure. Exaggerators lifetime best was 87. While that matches up well with Nyquist, its way too low compared to other horses. I realize we are dealing with velocity figures, run style, and energy distribution, but if these speed figures in any way play into the velocity figures, all the information they are involved with is possibly not very accurate. American Pharoah was the same way. When entered in the Breeders Cup Classic last year his life time best SR was the 90 he earned in the Arkansas Derby. When scanning the figures of the rest of the horses races, there were 14 figures in the pp's of the rest of the horses higher than the triple crown winners lifetime best. Really? Two of those figures were Frosted's. Four of them belonged to Effinex who AP beat handily. Even though the paceless race helped AP immensely, a horse still has to be able to run fast enough to use the advantage. While we all knew he was fast enough, if you looked at the race for the first time without any previous knowledge of him, one could conclude he wasn't fast enough. These are just two examples of, as far as I'm concerned, terrible handicapping confusion cause by poor speed figures. I realize that SR's are not the end all of handicapping but when you find a pace advantaged horse, you have to know whether he is fast enough to take advantage of it or not.

Greetings..

In your short paragraph, you asked many questions yet it seems that you have do have a hint in answering your own questions....I will spew some (humble two cents) opinions from my own experiences with the use of speed figures.

I am going to focus my opinions on speed figures, energy expenditures, form cycles and/or the developing horse and the match-up.

Regarding American Pharoah in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic;

We have a match-up section on this website and many great contributions especially from Richie P. and the legendary Jim "the Hat" Bradshaw.

With regards to the matchup of the Classic, American Pharoah was the lone early speed with sufficient ability as determined by Howard Sartin's programs. End of discussion.

Speed Figures:

The less you focus on speed figures as your main assessment tool; the better. My opinion is that most or all speed figures are erroneous at best. Why??? Most speed figures are based on linear formulas with the most errors occurring when an early speed horse sets an extremely fast pace and ends up at the finish line with a late closer at the same time.

In general, early speed horses that can set a fast early pace are under-rated while deep closers are generally over-rated on speed figures. Nowadays, we have an impressive system in Trak-us to measure the actual distance traveled in a horse race except it does not account for the daily friction of the racing surface on dirt or on turf. This determination of "friction" or as we know as "daily variants" is highly subjective; dependent on the judgement of an individual or accounting methods of the services used.

You mentioned Effinex; mostly it closes from off the pace in most of its races...I am going to show Honor Code; another "deep closer" and Liam's Map who exited from the same race as Honor Code.

40671

40672

40673

Regarding Effinex, it ran a highly sustained line from its race on March 27 at Aqueduct. This line would have made you consider it as a major contender in the Excelsior and the Suburban.

In the Breeders' Cup Classic, if one enters pacelines from mile and 1/4 distances, these pacelines will not ranked well. It might rank well if one uses Jim Bradshaw's Marathon Method by only using the mile times and fractions from those mile and1/4 distances. (JMHO)

In the above example of Honor Code and Liam's Map; let's focus on the Whitney Stakes in which Honor Code beat Liam's Map by a neck.

In all linear based speed figures, you expect Honor Code to have a higher speed figure than Liam's Map since it finished in front of Liam's Map. It just makes sense logically and visually, correct??? Well....I beg to differ...

[lone speed]

There are many formulas that can measure energy used and rate of velocity travel:

40676

As you can see in the above diagram, there are many formulas but let's focus on the concept of "kinetic energy versus potential energy."

40677

40678

In this thread, let's refer to "potential energy" as the early pace expenditure of horses and let's refer to "kinetic energy" as the final time speed figures of horses.

Horses that can set a fast early pace with a respectable final fraction have more "potential energy" than "stone cold" closers. Horses like Liam's Map can control the pace of the race and if they can reserve early energy in setting the pace of the race; they can produce much faster final times or "kinetic energy" than horses like Honor Code who are at the mercy of the early pace or lack thereof.

Liam's Map has more "potential energy" than Honor Code once they produce the extreme early pace. Even though Liam's Map lost the Whitney Race against Honor Code. Liam's Map will always win the rematches or go on to win more races than horses like Honor Code.

Horses like Liam's Map expend more energy expenditures thus more abilities than horses like Honor Code. The ability to expend more energy expenditures is like a car engine with more "horsepower."
40679


A speed figure that measures energy expenditures will be more useful in assessing a horse's ability than speed figures which is linear based and only measures estimated final times.

[lone speed]

RDSS readouts in 2015 BC Classic

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(JMHO)Personally, I would not use 10 furlong races in its entirety; I would have used all the fractions up to the mile marker per Jim Bradshaw's Marathon Method.

Here is the past performances of American Pharoah

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Let’s evaluate American Pharoah’s last two pacelines, where the running styles are highlighted...look at the change in energy exertion.....

In the last race in the Travers Stakes, American Pharoah expended its energy late even though it is positionally early....

In the second paceline, in the Haskell, American Pharoah expended its energy early as shown by the fast early pace......The trainer puts in three blitzing workouts before the big race- this horse is ready to rock!!!

Now, whether you want to subscribe to this method of evaluating races or not..it is a different point of view...But if I was a trainer of horses or track athletes (Hey, wasn't Jim Bradshaw a track coach???)....I would train a horse/athlete to work on two parts of a race before my main objective race...

The EARLY PACE and the LATE PACE......

I would train for the early fast pace in one race and in another race, I would work on the late pace or closing kick of a race.....

Then in the objective race...all of the training on early pace and late pace are put together for a maximum effort. This is why we haven’t seen the faster speed figure as it won’t appear until today’s maximum effort.

I do remember in the match up manual that Jim Bradshaw would paste the closing fractions of one paceline to the early fractions of another paceline.....

I had one acquaintance who called this type of horse, the PAIR HORSE....the horse pairs or runs two similar effort races or "number" races, then in the objective race, this horse will move up about 4-5 lengths... I will not go into details here, but the ideas came from Thorograph....Usually, you find these type of horses from developing horses, especially three year olds and from their layoffs from their two year old season into the beginning of their three year season....

[Mitch44]

lone speed: We're in agreement 100% Here's a excerpt from a post I made a few months back ( in another forum) in reference to the new Beyer numbers that were changed recently.

Beyer numbers do not consider the pace of the race and are weaker for that. Beyer's numbers only consider final time. Actually if two horses have the same number as an ex. the one with the fastest Second Call is the better of the two.(after adjusting for beaten lg.'s)I.e. both have an 80 Beyer but horse A had the lead at 45.0 and B had the lead at 46.0 then A is a better horse or if A was beaten by 5 lg.'s (technically beaten by 6 lg., keeping it simple here) and B was beaten by 2 lg.'s A is still best by two lg.

Anyone that are using Beyer's or any SR can improve on them by including a pace factor. A simple rating of 44 in sprints gets a 100 and in routes a 109.0 at 6 F gets 100,then deduct 1 point per lg. E.g. a 45 second SC would get a 95 then minus BL 0, ie. B ran a 111.0 in a route and gets a 90 while on the lead. Add this 95 & or 90 to the Beyer of 80 in this ex. + 175 & and 170. A simple pace factor from PMTR or phase 1.

While this would improve their numbers greatly I still don't recommend it because their basic numbers are flawed. In the example above the 80 can be flawed. The reason is that many different people make up the Beyer numbers and their not always on the same page. In fact in some races they combine all their brains to come up with a number and have been know to change numbers later when a horse runs back. An inconsistent approach at best.

It would work with a speed rating that is computer driven because the program would get the same results always. A speed rating such as BRIS or Trackmaster and adding pace to it can improve those numbers. This is nice if your out of town and have little to go by. You'll do much better than just a Beyer number or any SR for that matter.

Its just a simple down & dirty approach if that's all you have. Its an improvement but can't compare to using all 3 fractions and later advances in the Sartin approach or even TPR However it can up ones game if they can't juggle more than one ball at a time and its definitely an improvement. Using TPR or all 3 fractions is even better than just EP & a SR.

Mitch44

[lone speed]

Mitch,
Thanks for your contribution to this thread...

lone speed: We're in agreement 100% Here's a excerpt from a post I made a few months back ( in another forum) in reference to the new Beyer numbers that were changed recently.

Beyer numbers do not consider the pace of the race and are weaker for that. Beyer's numbers only consider final time.

Agreed...

Actually if two horses have the same number as an ex. the one with the fastest Second Call is the better of the two.(after adjusting for beaten lg.'s)I.e. both have an 80 Beyer but horse A had the lead at 45.0 and B had the lead at 46.0 then A is a better horse or if A was beaten by 5 lg.'s (technically beaten by 6 lg., keeping it simple here) and B was beaten by 2 lg.'s A is still best by two lg.


Yes..that's the gist but one should always "evaluate" the line


Anyone that are using Beyer's or any SR can improve on them by including a pace factor. A simple rating of 44 in sprints gets a 100 and in routes a 109.0 at 6 F gets 100,then deduct 1 point per lg. E.g. a 45 second SC would get a 95 then minus BL 0, ie. B ran a 111.0 in a route and gets a 90 while on the lead. Add this 95 & or 90 to the Beyer of 80 in this ex. + 175 & and 170. A simple pace factor from PMTR or phase 1.


That's ironic since I did something similar years ago...too funny


While this would improve their numbers greatly I still don't recommend it because their basic numbers are flawed. In the example above the 80 can be flawed. An inconsistent approach at best.


You said it best...We can add all kinds of exotic spices to a "bad dish" but it will not improve a "bad dish."



Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Thanks lone speed. Yes the line should always be evaluated, especially those doing the match up, if you selected a line for RDSS than that line is evaluated.

The big problem with a SR is deceleration and while adding a EP to it is a help it remains lacking. One could argue that the SR considers deceleration because its all in there and is a composite. To an extent their correct but in no way is it as exact or as finite as in RDSS readouts such as DCL or V/DC or even Feet Per Second 3rd Fraction measurements. Incremental velocity and deceleration will always trump a single SR number.

Players like the simplicity of a SR because they can understand it. Let them have it as we need their money. Actually I don't know why the Doc didn't simplify some readouts more.
Mitch44