View Full Version : How I use RDSS2
Bill V.
05-16-2016, 04:59 PM
This is my reply to a email.
The person who wrote me had a request
Could I send him my reply in a private Email because he said when others reply to my workups ( which there are many) he gets confused.
I wrote back and said, yes I will show you how I use RDSS but No, I will not send you a private workup.
The reason? The way I use RDSS works well for me, But I am just one person, with my own feelings. I wrote back and told the emailer, If you don't
want to listen to others you don't have too, Post on Pace and Cap are not novels if you disagree with Tom, Dick or Harry that is a choice you are free to make.
I feel that what I do is a good foundation for success, but other's can add
to my bass . You will have great success with RDSS once you find a method that works best for you ,
So I ask all pace and cap people How do you use RDSS
I will get things started
First thing I have my setting set like this,
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This is how Doc left Validator
I always did very well with Validator, In all the years I used Val 1,2 3 and
Val 4 I never though, man If I could change some settings I would do better ! No I never did, and I wonder why we could not change things on
Validator, Maybe Doc knew It would harm more than help ?
also I look at the VDC readout and Doc had a hard rule about 7.5 beaten lengths, Saying beaten lengths over 7.5 mess up the VDC readout
Okay that is that about settings,so I use RDSS as if it was Validator
for the VDC readout and the adjustments set by Doc.
So how do I use RDSS?
Its very simple - Phase 1
There are many great readouts on RDSS, I just don't use them
So basically there is not much to add
I use RDSS to download my cards
I use RDSS for the Tote X ray
I only look at two screens, The two screens I use are
The TPR/PMTR screen and the Segments screen.
So once I get a card loaded. I turn on the tote Xray ( if I'm working races live) I open the races from the tracks I follow,
I go through these steps
1. Check the conditions
2. Set the option to select the last pace line for every horse in the race
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3. Check who are the top 5 TPR horses from the last pace line.
4. Look at the TPR ratings of these 5 horses
5. Look at the Best EPR horses,
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6. Go to the original PP's and find the fulcrum horse
7. Mark The running styles
8. Change the pace line selection option to Best of the last 3 comparable
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9. Now I go through each horse and see if the BLT/C has selected a usable line IF the last line is excusable
10, Go to the TPR/PMTR tab
11. Find the top EPR horses
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12 Check the F1 panel on the segments screen, Who is getting the lead?
12, Hide non contenders who are deficient in EPR or LPR or TPR,
13 Hide or note horses who deficient relative to the conditions
14 Check the length of the sticks, Who is too early ? Who is too late
15. Look at the top 3 VDC horses and look for the horses with weak VDC
16 Match up, Is a Early horse or OTE horse going to win.
17 Find my bets based on Phase 1, The Match Up and the VDC readout
18 Make my bets based on the tote xray odds, or if I am traveling and betting ahead of time Check the morning lines
That is all and everything
So How do you use RDSS ?
Thanks
Bill
RichieP
05-16-2016, 05:48 PM
There it is in spades!
Awesome layout Bill! You are amazingly consistent which is key for making money.
Thanx for taking the time to show us your procedure!
Richie
shoeless
05-16-2016, 08:27 PM
Bill,
Nice workup of how you use the program
Thanks
Bill V.
05-17-2016, 08:33 AM
I simplified my steps in Post 1
Yes the first thing I do is check the conditions of the race.
But I also look at the APV, The CR and the earnings box of each horse
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Here is the morning line favorite for todays 3rd race at Parx
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Rosie has 10 wins The condition for this race is CL12.5 Non winners of a race in 6 months 124 lbs
Rosie has the most wins in the field, (10) Her APV is under 1.00 but her class rating is good at 117 so she has done well against lesser horses . I also check the race rating. Todays race is a 77 I usually look for good efforts in races over 80.
The 5 horse has 4 wins, It has good APV and CR ratings
but it has placed 11 times
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These are all factors I get when using RDSS
Mitch44
05-17-2016, 01:38 PM
The way I use TPR is as follows: My set up is the same as your with the exception that I start off with my pace line selection with Preceptor the best of the last 3 comparable and don't change it. I review every line chosen with my computer set up with 3 screens: #1 on original screen to verify the line chosen for agreement. That screen gives the Preceptor for all its races and the POR (pace of the race) for each race. I never use off track lines for dirt races even if the conditions today are off as they can vary greatly and aren't created equal. I will use an off trk. line for a turf race if the horse has no turf races. I attempt to stay within 1/2 F with my lines but will except 1F. This is important because of deceleration rates after more than 1 F just aren't accurate. Also on the screen are the variants for review and I'm leery of very high abnormal ones ( over +27 or -7 and under) note sometimes your forced to use what you have and if their all coming from the same track with aberrant variants its OK. SA many low fast tracks with many under -7 or Mahoney where all may have variants of +40 etc. #2 screen I have set on TPR/ E/L so I can check the line chosen to insure it agrees with its normal running style,#3 screen is set on the BL/BL screen so I can check more than one line for the same horse if in doubt.
Regardless of the set up chosen for pace line selection I pity the individual who doesn't verify the line chosen and confirms it. It does very well but can cost you $$$$$ if not verified.
Mitch44
Bill S
05-17-2016, 02:10 PM
". . . .I'm leery of very high abnormal ones ( over +27 or -7 and under)"
Mitch, can you explain to me why you choose -7 and under as your limit? I feel the same way about picking lines with variants like this, but I usually don't use -15 and under and I'm wondering if maybe I need to rethink this -- thanks...
Hi guys
I capped this race today and this what I did. My win contenders were the 1 entry,4 &5
for horse #1 I used line 3 line 1 too high a class,line2 wrong dist
1a line 3 line1 too high class,and 1st from l/o l2 7f more then 1f todays dist
#4 l2 better adj sr then lin1 and preferred by program
#5 line 4 l1 sly sealed trk 1st from lo, l4 better adj sr then lines 2 &3 and is same class and dist as today. I note its from 198 days ago, but I don't confine myself to the 90 day guideline and it gives the horse its' best chance to win something that Marion Jones and Vic Paiermo stressed at the 93 Vegas seminar. I passed the race due to low payoffs. The 4 won paying $4,$2.40,$2.10, the 1 was 2nd $2.40 $2.20 the 5 was 3rd $2.80. The ex paid $10.40,$1 tri paid $13.60
Tim
Mitch44
05-17-2016, 03:12 PM
Hi Bill S:
The reason I use those two criteria is that what I learned at the SAR. seminar back in the early 90's from Glenn Connolly. The Sartin groups research determined that the average variant across the country was 17. On either side of this there is a point that it becomes unreliable. Glen was a mathematician who worked in the space program with formulas but he was an individual who loved to do research. It was his determination as far as I know that came up with that and he stated that was what he used. Good enough for me.Those adjustments give you 10 lengths on either side, after that your dealing with a guessing game.
I suppose I could change the settings but I have always used the recommended setting with success. But I do look at the variants and sometime change a line based on that or as an example its not their running style.
If horses are all coming from the same track in many cases it safe to use them. Example races at SA all tend to be very fast with many around that -7 or under or at MV where + 35 could be the norm. This is mostly due to weather condition as in little rain and winter off tracks. If their all like that than its OK because your treating them all the same and their from the same track or if that's all you have to go on. Rather than change the settings I just review the variant for a norm. You can go the other way and change the settings but I would still recommend you review them just like you should review automatically picked pace lines. Hope this helped.
Mitch44
Mitch44
05-17-2016, 03:23 PM
Bill V.: Your post #1 poses an interesting race in that we don't know when it was run or the result. Very little difference here in TPR and Total Energy. My picks are 7 & 3 but that is based only on the information given. Before posting the result give some others a chance to chime in. I don't want to my rationale to influence others. Later before the result I'll give my opinions for my picks. Alright men serve them up.
Mitch44
Bill V.
05-17-2016, 05:08 PM
Hi Mitch
The race I used for post 1 was a race I won.
I want to show the fulcrum for that race .
Here are the last lines for the 7 horses that ran
The condition of the race was 5.5 furlongs from Parx A 7500 claimer for F&M who have never won 4 races . It was a fast track
Here are the original lines .
Here again, are the EPR, LPR and TPR readouts ,
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For the fulcrum, I look at the horses with the highest EPR's in the last race ONLY
Here it is horse #3 a 90.5 EPR but Its from a 6 furlong race, The 4 horse has a 88 and its from the same track and distance as this race s I used the 4's EPR POR as the fulcrum
Here is Horse 3 Would you use line 1 with a -14 DTV ?
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Bill V.
05-17-2016, 05:18 PM
Hi guys
I capped this race today and this what I did. My win contenders were the 1 entry,4 &5
for horse #1 I used line 3 line 1 too high a class,line2 wrong dist
1a line 3 line1 too high class,and 1st from l/o l2 7f more then 1f todays dist
#4 l2 better adj sr then lin1 and preferred by program
#5 line 4 l1 sly sealed trk 1st from lo, l4 better adj sr then lines 2 &3 and is same class and dist as today. I note its from 198 days ago, but I don't confine myself to the 90 day guideline and it gives the horse its' best chance to win something that Marion Jones and Vic Paiermo stressed at the 93 Vegas seminar. I passed the race due to low payoffs. The 4 won paying $4,$2.40,$2.10, the 1 was 2nd $2.40 $2.20 the 5 was 3rd $2.80. The ex paid $10.40,$1 tri paid $13.60
Tim
Hi Tim
I boxed the 4 and 1 with the 5 who I saw probably as not a great win candidate
but who had a good chance to be in the money . Like I pointed out
11 places but only 4 wins The 5 ran third but the 1 and 4 finished together
I lost .80 :o
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Hi Bill
I just saw no value in the race. Considering that the top 2 betting choices only complete the ex 26% of the time I just didn't think it was worth the risk. I did look at the dd payoffs with r4 but didn't like anything there either. That came back a big $14.80.
Mitch44
05-17-2016, 09:37 PM
NOTE: My comments are for the race in post #1 not race in post # 4. I figured this race to be 6 F, the 3 can benefit by the cutback in distance. I would use line #1 for the 3 because L2 is my,L3 & 4 are past my guidelines of 1 F and L5 is at a different trk. but mainly too far back. Using line 1 with -14 variant is consistent with horses 4,5,& 7 as they all had a -14 and from the same track.
Not sure if I would keep those lines for those horses but on the info. so far that would be my line for the 3. The 3 has shown he can rate some in his chart but has problems finishing. the cut back can help him get a win. The 3 is an improving horse in both Total energy and TPR in last race. Whatever his problems were he seems to be over it. I'll admit that after the # 7 this becomes a tuff race for a second contender. I'll talk about V/DC in the AM.
Mitch44
Mitch44
05-18-2016, 03:11 PM
Well Bill V. no one else has commented or posted their thoughts to the race in comment #1 of your post so I'll sum up my thoughts on it. Note: This is from your line selection and based only on the information available in your limited post.
The 5 & 6 are a toss for low velocity. You indicated the 1 as a NTL and if so he won't get it against this bunch, out. That leaves us the 2,7,4 & 3 as contenders.
The 2 is number one in Total Energy, TPR and V/DC with his 0.0 rating. He is my number one pick. The next horse on V?DC is 3.0 a really nice gap and an indication of the 2 has greater reserve energy.
The addition of V/DC to the TPR screen in RDSS 2 will greatly help RDSS 2 users in separating horses. V/DC was born out of the original Entropy program,later modified by the "Doc" into Valadator, and is an underrated factor that more users need to pay attention to.
After the number 2 there are three horses that are tied (7,4 & 3) on TPR and total energy. In a previous post I stated that when horses are tied I choose the one with the better 3rd Fr because it indicates more reserve energy that can be used in the match up of the ones that are tied and the majority of the time when they exert that they'll defeat the other. Does it work every time? Hell no,nothing does. But by doing this your putting the percentages on your side. You'll have to keep records to find this out on your own or just except it.
The 7 & 3 lines are taking from 6F and todays dis. is 5.5F while the 4 is from 5.5F Although tied in TPR horses that cut back in dis. generally can increase their TPR and those stretching our generally decrease their TPR. The reason for this is the deceleration factor and where it takes place, cutting back its less likely to decelerate as much as in a longer race. Same reason why smaller tracks card so many 5 & 5.5 F races is because those horses hit the brick wall at 6F at major tracks but don't hit that wall at shorter dis.'s.
Based on that my choices are 2-7-3. Also in answer to Bills ? on the pace line of the 3 I like that he is an improving horses. I also would have used other stuff in RDSS to break these ties but used only what Bill V. posted.
Now if you look at V/DC to separate these tied horses (7,4 & 3) it clearly separates these 3 horses ranking them 7-3-4 but I would caution the user against this and I didn't use it here. The 7 has a 3.0 and the 3 has a 3.3. Just how much dam difference is that? I understand the inner working of V/DC and I have absolutely no idea except to say their close and would resort to other readouts to solve this problem. V/DC readouts can show gaps and be extremely close. This presents a problem for my small brain and all I can say is there is a slight difference which isn't good enough for me to risk $$$ on it. I would like to see these numbers go from percent to a scale of 100 such as are the numbers in TPR. Everyone can easily discern the difference between a 93 and a 91 EPR etc. I'm sure they can be easily converted as it been done before in previous programs. I would also like to see that for the Feet Per Second ratings in RDSS 2 . I've done the FPS on my own and its not complicated.
As the"The Hat" would say "you have to use what you have" but I'm still a dreamer.
Final pick 2-7-3-4 in that order.
Mitch44
Bill V.
05-18-2016, 04:43 PM
Hi Mitch
The race was this past Saturdays Match Up contest race
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It was a CL 7500 Non winner 4 life for 3+ F M
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You did a great job piecing together your look based on limited information
I won this race and got a win in the contest,
My post for the contest looked like this
I really was late getting it in on time. I had to post something
quickly, as part f the contest ,we have to explain our picks,
I did not have time to explain my issues with horse 3 and 7
because they were loading in the gate as I was posting .
anyway here is what I posted
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I will now post the PP's and my thoughts for each horse
Bill
Bill V.
05-18-2016, 04:45 PM
1 2 3 4
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Bill,
looking how you use RDSS I see 6 factors plus the sticks which are the differences between EPR and FFR. I have a question for you.....
do you know how many times the race winner was rank 1 in each of the factors, or for that matter ranked 2, or 3 or 4.
Bill V.
05-18-2016, 04:47 PM
horses
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Bill V.
05-18-2016, 04:55 PM
The 2 was a solid bet
For my second win bet I just went with the 10/1 ML horse #4
I just had too many doubts about the 3 horses habit of weak LPR's
and I felt the 7 would be too far back especially if the 5 went crazy early again
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Results
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Mitch44
05-18-2016, 07:40 PM
Nice win and ex. Bill. Having more information now the # 7 is an improving horse. I would have used line 2 for the 5 but it still wouldn't have made any difference or make it a contender. And on the 1 I would have used L 4 because L 1 is counter to its ESP and probably a result of a slow POR, that L 4 actually makes it even worst on TPR .(low velocity) and more of a throw-out. Good job Bill.
Mitch44
Bill V.
05-18-2016, 10:41 PM
Bill,
looking how you use RDSS I see 6 factors plus the sticks which are the differences between EPR and FFR. I have a question for you.....
do you know how many times the race winner was rank 1 in each of the factors, or for that matter ranked 2, or 3 or 4.
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Hi GL45
No I could not tell you because I never modeled it. I can not dig up some stats forhow often the 1 "stick" wins or # 2 or what ever.
The #1 Stick simply means the horse ran more unbalanced
then the #2 "stick" horse
Rather than ranking the sticks , Which Doc never did by the way , We were instructed in the follow up
to look for parameters of what wins at your track based on
distance and surface and competition level .
Look at it this way , using the 3 horse Red Rei Rei
Lets say it is 145 days ago, Last Dec21st. You are handicapping race 3, a 6.5 furlong race for CL15 N4-L
Line 4 ( which would be line 1 on this day ) Line 1 looks like a solid win line, Its recent, Its a + pace line. It fits this horses running style which is Early,
Now lets look at the stick. It is a big red +22
It probably would be the #1 or maybe the #2 biggest stick in the analysis of all the other pace lines you used
for the other horses in the race,
Now the question really is this, Is +22 too early ?
in todays match up ?
My experience of my doing so many races over my Sartin years from Parx is, Yes 22 is too unbalanced early. The 95 EPR is great but this horse won a race with a 73 LPR ! which is very low ( anything under 80 )
usually means too much deceleration and a loss,
95 EPR minus 73 LPR means a +22 Early balance, so you get a +22 stick
So in todays race will the match up allow a repeat
of a unbalance early pace line, against a much higher class level of competition , from 10,000 to 15,000
and also non winners of 4 life instead of non winner of
3 life -
In the Match Up, are there other Earlys who will do nothing but make the 3 horse run even more unbalanced early?
That is what happened in the Dec 21 race.
Red Rei Rei ran a faster EPR of 96.4 but It caused it to run a terrible 43.9 LPR and lose by 30 lengths.
So It does little to say the #1 biggest stick ( best ?)
wins a certain percent of races, What matters is ,
what range of early or middle or late balance win most often.
I would say in a range of +12 to +15
and anything over 20 is probably too early for this kind of race at Parx
A horse with less than + 5 had better be very close
in EPR LPR balance or else they will be too far back
and then need the better EPR to collapse.
Bill,
I didn't mean for you to keep a stick model, but rather a model of VDC, TPR, EPR, FFR, APV, CR.
Bill,
My impression is that rather than set hard parameters you use these numbers to diagnose the pace scenario and because of your years of experience that leads you to the most likely outcome. I enjoy reading your write ups because they embody a flexibility of analysis. What do the numbers indicate is likely to happen and the most likely outcome is your conclusion.
Just fantastic!!
Bill V.
05-20-2016, 09:18 AM
Bill,
My impression is that rather than set hard parameters you use these numbers to diagnose the pace scenario and because of your years of experience that leads you to the most likely outcome. I enjoy reading your write ups because they embody a flexibility of analysis. What do the numbers indicate is likely to happen and the most likely outcome is your conclusion.
Just fantastic!!
Thank you Mark
I look forward to more analysis from races.
Good Skill
Bill
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