Good source for Woodbine info

[MikeB]

If you are not aware of it, the Woodbine web site has a daily feature called "Jim Bannon Journals". Bannon is a public handicapper and I have no idea if his picks are any better or worse than any other public handicapper.

But his daily journal also includes a short write up on each horse running that day. This will often provide more detail about the horse and its connections than can be found in the PPs, or point out details that may not jump out from the PPs.

Go to the web site at http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/Pages/Default.aspx

In the banner across the top, click on "BETTING", then on "Handicapping Resources" and then on "Jim Bannon Journals"

[mowens33]

Mike, Thanks for the information!

Mike

[Rivegauche610]

I've known about the Bannon Journals for a while now, and its mention gets me thinking about my experience today with Gulfstream and Woodbine.

...

Several times during the card at WO today I found that the RDSS conclusions the software and I came to were right, based on the available evidence and the algorithms RDSS computes. What the past performances, algorithms and educated intuition CAN'T tell you is whether the 20-1 longshot with no chance on paper makes it into the Place, busting up your exacta, or the horse wins and demolishes your 2 horse win strategy by winning and thereby causing your 3rd choice, which you didn't bet, into the second hole! I found this happening several times today and I admit it was frustrating. I spend a lot of time on each card, cross-checking my own conclusions and those of RDSS by also employing the MPH Pro service from Trackmaster. Generally my paceline selection (plural for MPH Pro) is 85% or more accurate the first time.

The other thing RDSS can't tell you is what transpired so as to render one of those miraculous reversals of form. You know, the 40% trainer using only hay, oats and water...

One of the most unsettling (read: pissed me off) events of the day was the 10th at Woodbine. My personal betting matrix included the 8, 7 and 2 (in that order) partly due to their deceleration factors as indicated in the BL/BL screen. So when the 7, Via Nevada, won, and paid $43.60 keying a decent P4 payoff, I had committed a cardinal sin in the setup to that wager. I trusted a tout. An online tout I respect presented a reasonable P4 sequence. I played it with only a cursory check of his selections. Wrong move. He omitted the 2 from his 5 horses (3,4,5,6,10) in the 10th. Based on my choice of pacelines, RDSS rated the 4,5,6&10 as non-contenders. Oh hell. The tout didn't know that, but I did, and I didn't check with RDSS or really look at the 10th until after my ticket was in and it was over. It was only a $12 lesson, but the worst part was abandoning my studied and methodical modus operandi. I felt like an idiot.

So my lesson learned was to eschew trusting touts - or taking flyers, which is what I did - without analyzing it on my own. I missed a very modest $234 twenty cent payout by not doing the work and trusting myself as well as the software with which I am getting more comfortable.

In a postscript, I haven't had much success with CBY. Has anyone here? I'd like to support their lower vig, but not at the expense of the bankroll without at least occasional replenishments...I'll stick to GP, WO and maybe AP. And then SAR in a couple weeks.

Relevant screen shots attached. As for the pacelines of this particular race, they are RDSS' Best Perceptor selections unaltered by me.

Kevin

[Brian Chamberlain]

Hi Kevin, thanks for your feedback on MPH Pro on this and prior threads. I couldn't help but notice #2 Viva Nevada was the leading Turn Time horse, a concept featured in Brohamer's book. And a fine bet considering the odds.
Brian

[Rivegauche610]

Brian, I felt like a complete idiot for my myopia! I will pay closer attention to everything, and never, never, never again go with a tout as a flyer. "Trust, but verify."

Kevin

[Hoof 11]

Hi Kevin, thanks for your feedback on MPH Pro on this and prior threads. I couldn't help but notice #2 Viva Nevada was the leading Turn Time horse, a concept featured in Brohamer's book. And a fine bet considering the odds.
Brian
The "Turn TIme" readout is really only effective in 5.5F races, or around that distance, i would tread lightly with other distances using that readout. FTL had a good thread on the topic, you'll have to dig it up.

[Hoof 11]

Brian, I felt like a complete idiot for my myopia! I will pay closer attention to everything, and never, never, never again go with a tout as a flyer. "Trust, but verify."

Kevin
Bannon is a decent handicapper and good analyst, but he generally hits cheap horses or obvious horses, don’t expect a lot of bombs from him. If you don’t follow Woodbine all that closely than he’s worth a read, but i would take his selections with a grain of salt, especially his “Best Bet of the Day”, or what i like to call the..... “Best Toss of the Day”.

The 2 Viva Nevada had everything go for it, she was the top “Total Energy” horse in the field, had good early works followed up consistent conditioning, dropping in class, she’s a decliner who runs peak efforts off the shelf, best late horse in the field, 3rd in class.

When you have a horse that has the best “Late Energy” rating, the best “Deceleration” rating accompanied with the best “Hidden Energy” rating accompanied with the best “True Speed” rating, in a route race, YOU POUNCE ON SAID HORSE.

When looking at Maiden races at Woodbine, there is one angle that you cannot ignore. Look for horses that have come within 1 length or less of winning in their last 10 lines, you will be amazed at how many of those horses go onto win. Go through every horse in the field and mark down the ones that have come within exactly one length or less of winning down on a piece of paper, if any of those horses are a top “Total Energy “ horse, and/or the horse is a clocker today, you have a likely contender. Looking at race 10 last Sunday there was one horse in the field that fit that billing.....

[sureshotlink]

No! not referring to the 80's rap group Naughty by Nature. The OPP I'm referring to is " OTHER PEOPLE PICKS"

All of us at pace and cap work to dang hard at this game to wager one red penny on some tout selections.

We have at our disposal the best handicapping program out on the market to date!

Take full advantage of it guy's and Gal's,

Know i do!!

Success to all,

Paul Link
Los Angeles, CA

[Rivegauche610]

Hoof, thank you very much for the legit "tip". I will review tomorrow's card! I also found this: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8383 !

[Hoof 11]

Hoof, thank you very much for the legit "tip". I will review tomorrow's card! I also found this: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8383 !

No problem.

Post #3 from FTL sums it up, thanks for posting the link, i am lazy that way. ;)

Tomorrow's card..... June 22

Race 4 and 8 are Maiden Races, here are the angle plays i was referring to.

R4 - 4-6-8-9

R8 - 4-6

[Brian Chamberlain]

Don't beat yourself up too bad, it IS gambling, hopefully at a profit. I am intrigued with MPH Pro because it is web based so I can use on my Apple laptop or even my iPad. But there is no support I know of--like we have with Ted plus RDSS is more robust.

I'm re-reading Modern Pace Handicapping for the 3rd time, hoping more will sink into my aging brain. :)

Best of luck, stay in touch.

[Brian Chamberlain]

I agree the Hidden Fraction or TT works better at sprints per Brohamer, and is never a sole reason to bet on a horse. However in conjunction with other factors I have found it useful for finding longer shots.
Thanks,
Brian

[Rivegauche610]

Holy cow. Spent a a lot of time on tonight's Woodbine card only to get blasted out of the P4 in the first leg by a 50-1 shot with few redeeming features and only modest early speed. I wonder what sort of juice THAT horse got? Must've been the single-barrel, top-shelf stuff. Exasperating.

[Brian Chamberlain]

Exasperating all right! The P4 must have had a terrific payoff.

[gandalf380]

rivegauche intrigues me with his post. attached is my screenshot using rdss auto pace selection.
I think coca has a lot going for itself. tot eng, bl/bl, epr, hidden, tt, cpr, ts. well worth betting at 50-1. I don't think it is fair to pin big odds on "juice" with absolutely no evidence.

[mowens33]

Broke up my pick 5 and 4

Shame on me for not having a dime on the 2!

Mike

[gandalf380]

the first race at Belmont was just the opposite. the 10 cent super paid 92 cents

[Hoof 11]

Race 4 and 8 are Maiden Races, here are the angle plays i was referring to.

R4 - 4-6-8-9

R8 - 4-6
Race 4

Results – 2-6-4-9

Race 8

4 – Scratched

Results – 6-3-10-2

The track has been slowly speeding up over the last couple of weeks, they must be working it. The “Early” bias was present on the entire card last night with some nice final times, we shall see if that carries into the weekend.

The Turf course is rock hard, we haven’t been getting any rain and everything is drying up. The course has been favoring “Early” speed as well.

It wasn’t that much of a stretch for a front runner to win R4 last night, but what i did find a bit shocking was the 44.70 and 56.65 fractions, that filly hasn’t done that before. :eek: