Actual Viable Variables

[Otealfr]

By the title you might think that the Doc is back. Sorry it is not.
The Doc stated in the introduction to Tom Brohamer book "The Brohamer Model":
" By November 1982 we had stored on a main frame computer at U. of Ca , Riverside over 18,000 races from every racing in North America" leading to naming all the probable variables at the time, going from Weight, trainer, class drop,etc, giving to all the viable factors a number according to a scale of probability of producing -the winning factor-a viable variable that would put it in the top four, "Final Fraction, Sorry Col. Bradley, only a 5" "The second call obtained a 3+, the best yet, but through combining to or more variables together in Multiple Regression" he found that:
"Factor W - our champ at 2.6. We were able to find the winner in the top 2.6 Factor W horses 68.8% of the time".
That was great then do to the fact that No, America racing was based on early speed, and had a lot of tracks that were really favoring front runners as in Pom where the early energy was close to 55, or SA 53, HP 52, etc. But then came the Breeders Cup, and tracks had to be changed so all those big important races were run in track of similar condition to make Fair TO ALL THE HORSES COMING FROM ALL OVER THE COUNTY. Speed from the West coast(1 1 4) vs. sustained pace (4 4 1) from the East coast.
With those changes the track bias just about disappeared.
With that as preamble let me make the question of this topic of Viable Variables:
In the RDSS new program of the Sartin Methodology, does anybody have done the research to establish which are the best rated factor or combination of factors that will yield the winner universally (all No. American tracks ) in the top 2/3?Tom Brohamer states in his book "The Brohamer Model, page 23:
"The more ratings you attempt to use in concert, the more you dilute the value of the truly predicting ratings "
Mark Cramer wanted to use mechanically BL BL at 100% overlay, but it was answered that it was better to use it with the corollaries.
I have seen the videos posted here, but there too many Viable Variables considered: Total energy, True speed, Factor W, Factor X, Last fraction, etc. In other words, in a way, no pun intended, we are going back to circle one, which was prior to the above mentioned study done at U. of Riverside , Ca in the 80´s. by Doctor Howard Sartin and associates.
To tell you the truth, as I told Ted Craven previously, I am a pencil and paper kind of handicapper, as a matter of fact when Dick Mitchell introduce me to the Doc. in 1986 , I used to to do Phase lll with a hand held calculator until I received from Chicago a Sharp programmable calculator, printer and interface . If I am going to invest money renting a computer program and time in handicapping and finding the glitches, if any, I like to know if it is PROBABLE that it is better than what I do now.
Any comments, suggestions or research work would be greatly appreciated (if nobody answer I will have to assume that it is none that want to be revealed, in which case I will consider the renting of the program and successive handicapping a losing proposition, and God knows Dick Mitchell made me a POSITIVE EXPECTANCY kind of person.
Thanks to all for reading this far.
Happy trails to you all.
See you at the cashier´s window.

Regards,
Alfred Otero

[Tim Y]

I don't think any ONE variable can be used standing alone. I have been at this since Phase III first came out and I never found a SINGLE repeatable factor upon which to base all others. Sprints, routes, surfaces, specific racetrack & weather all play factors in choosing the right set of primary and secondary indicators.

One has to establish track profiles on each circuit one plays and even then the variable specific to one, may not be specific to the next one.

CLOSEST to go through for a general discovery of who is today competitive is to look at the pace of race they all ran against. Who can handle the fastest pace pressure and translate it to today's match up? Now that would best be translated into total energy, BUT be careful as slow early paced races rank high in totals and many times they are not competitive at ALL. Slow early paced races allow for conservation of energy to be applied late and give a skewed perception via total energy.

Also basing any conclusion on a single factor BEGS the introduction of sample error.

[Tim Y]

North American racing is STILL, even MORE so, dependent upon early speed.

A horse's early speed ability is more reproducible and one finds it repeatable in the past performances. Not so later moves since they depend upon the early......

[Otealfr]

I don't think any ONE variable can be used standing alone. I have been at this since Phase III first came out and I never found a SINGLE repeatable factor upon which to base all others. Sprints, routes, surfaces, specific racetrack & weather all play factors in choosing the right set of primary and secondary indicators.

One has to establish track profiles on each circuit one plays and even then the variable specific to one, may not be specific to the next one.

CLOSEST to go through for a general discovery of who is today competitive is to look at the pace of race they all ran against. Who can handle the fastest pace pressure and translate it to today's match up? Now that would best be translated into total energy, BUT be careful as slow early paced races rank high in totals and many times they are not competitive at ALL. Slow early paced races allow for conservation of energy to be applied late and give a skewed perception via total energy.

Also basing any conclusion on a single factor BEGS the introduction of sample error.
Thank you, Tim. I greatly appreciate your input.
I was speaking in general terms as The Doc did in 1982 of Association of factors, no just a single one.. But for what you are telling me, This RDDS is a sophisticated Phase lll with a Betting line. With the basic concepts just the same. The work of the handicapper is to keep Track profiles,for each surface and distance, and the match the horses that have run against the stronger pace providing that the potential of total energy falls within the parameters stablished by the above mention track profile?
Thanks,
Rgds.
Alfred Otero

[Mitch44]

Hi Otealfr, I would strongly suggest you give RDSS a tryout. The program is much more advanced than phase 3 however that's in there also. I also started similar as you with this stuff and that type of start leads to a better understanding IMO.

As many Sartin programs there are many screens, readouts etc. I'm sure you won't have a problem with it and will be able determine the important readouts through record keeping. You'll be amazed how efficient it handles different tracks ,distance changes etc. I highly recommend it and believe it'll up your game vs. your present approach. By the way what the Doc learned from those 1800 races is incorporated in it along with all that came after which proved to be much greater. I will be glad to steer you in the right direction or do a race with you to get you started.
Best of luck,
Mitch44

[Otealfr]

Thank you very much, Mitch. I will strongly consider your suggestions.
Rgds.,
Alfred Otero

[Tim Y]

Just so that there is no confusion, I regularly use Speculator...NEVER did find Phase III any help even after I "GOT IT" with Energy.

I have not seen ANY program (and believe me I have looked) that has a consistently effective betting line. They are irrelevant anyhow since one never knows what the CROWD is going to back or shy away from. Each race is a new challenge to find overlays or exotics combinations that favor long term profit.

An aspect I think most forget is to go back to the basics of the betting line and understand just what probabilities are related to which odds and how much a Dutch is removing from the available pool (after the take is removed).

A good table to learn from is in a very good article from the American Quarter Horse Association and the morning line calculator from Los Alamitos reviewed here: https://aqha.com/racing/pages/racing-and-wagering/q-racing-aces-and-handicapping-information/the-morning-line/

[Mitch44]

Otealfr:

Just for clarity RDSS does include a betting line. As I mentioned it includes just about every phase that ever became part of Sartin. Members tend to favor the program or part of RDSS that they had success with and they understand.

Each phase became better and greatly contributed to the greater good to its best factors that far exceed earlier versions.etc. The final product / factors supersedes all the earlier phases and their included. This includes the match up. Everyone can succeed and find something that works for them. Your success and ability is only limited to your own ability and grasp of it all. Based on your original post it'll take you much further and faster than anything you previously used. Good luck.
Mitch44

[Tim Y]

Basic concepts get you contenders...they haven't changed...All later programs just presented that information in easier to understand formats.

After the big exodus from Pirco, several of the original teaching members left being upset that these concepts remained rather diffuse and not well presented. Micheal Pizzolla, especially, has written about his disdain for his belief that a more direct presentation of the basic definitions were not better explained.

As the programs evolved, that, thankfully, became less of an issue. From the very odd circular graphs on the first programs to Thoromation was a great step forward. Energy put the Methodology in a class by itself. I had to laugh that Steve Davidowitz in the second edition of his book on Betting Thoroughbreds, had an entire chapter calling the methodology PSEUDOSCIENCE....Odd thing, that chapter disappeared in the next edition.

Overall, I find TOO many ways of evaluation have always been presented as just about everyone I have ever taught the basics have stated in their feedback. Which one or ones do I use? Answer: you have to find out from keeping good records as it varies from circuit to circuit.

One of the overlooked charts that many of the earlier programs had was called The Long shot Detector (poor name for it). It showed the comparative paces of race that each entered line ran against and allowed the used to dismiss many a line that "looked good" on the match up but were exposed by being a sub par pace of race comparatively. These usually, but not always, represented lines that had a slow early pace or were extremely UNBALANCED.

Having been "brought up" on these programs (just like learning DOS before Windows on the computer) one gets an appreciation of how the presentations have evolved. Believe ME, if you started this education with Phase III, you would be lost to its overall interpretations. Presentations continued to improve so that it became easier to grasp concepts with the newer programs.

EVERYONE I have spoken to who now "gets it," explains to me some variation of having an epiphany in regards to when the light finally came on and it made sense holistically. Like anything worthwhile, one has to serve an apprenticeship before that will happen to new users.

[CEW]

Alfred - All good advice above in my opinion. Start somewhere or anywhere with regards to the program, handicap, keep records and models, and the winners will emerge, particularly once you grasp the contender situation. You might as well use RDSS because you can get a lot of help here.

I might add that although many people believe Phase III is ineffective or outdated, it is just as good now as back when. I use 2 programs - TPR and Phase III. I have a TPR program in a spreadsheet I wrote that makes the adjustments I want it to make - and I hand enter the pacelines. When I have to handicap a lot of races in a short amount of time, such as a tournament or say when I go to the Derby and leave my machine back at the hotel, I use a download Phase III with a meridian variant adjustment. Its similar to Synergism but essentially treats every horse like a shipper. In Synergism, roughly speaking, horses from the home track and distance don't go through the meridian process - just the shippers. I used this at Saratoga for 6 days this summer and killed it 4 out of 6 days. Prices all the way up to $56 mutuels. But the contenders are key, followed closely by the models.

Because it helped me so much, I recommend Brohamer's Lecture Series, which you can find in the Audio Collection on this site. You don't need any print material....just listen to it while you are driving, or wherever, enough times till his contender process sinks in. Its straight forward and non-mechanical.

Best of luck!

Chuck

[turfsup]

Dear Otealfr Regarding rdss questions .. I started using rdss a short while ago and I followed instructions about reading the last 15 followups that doc wrote!! you might consider as I did to work 100 races as quick as possible . I USED ONLY THE TOP TWO VDC HORSES AND WON ABOUT 35 PERCENT WITH AN AVERAGE MUTUAL OF ABOUT 14.00, THIS WAS AT SEVERAL DIFFERANT TRACKS. Now than you might consider next to use docs 20 race wagering decision form to keep track of your profits, Now at all tracks my are mostly confined to the top two of the bl/bl rating and just this will produce profits for you. best wishes with rdss turfsup