Value Of Record Keeping.

[Lt1]

A short time ago I posted in a thread stating that at Parx the races at a mile and seventy were favoring pressers and sustained horses. On Sunday 10-9 heavy rain fell on Parx making the track sly. On that day and on Mon and so far today there have been 6 races at the dist and all have been won by early or pressers[2today so far 4 more carded]. By keeping a model and a profile I was able to catch the trend and adjust my wagering.
Tim G

[MJS6916]

A short time ago I posted in a thread stating that at Parx the races at a mile and seventy were favoring pressers and sustained horses. On Sunday 10-9 heavy rain fell on Parx making the track sly. On that day and on Mon and so far today there have been 6 races at the dist and all have been won by early or pressers[2today so far 4 more carded]. By keeping a model and a profile I was able to catch the trend and adjust my wagering.
Tim G


I hoped that helped you cash in today's 2nd at Parx.

[Lt1]

A small wp bet. I was concerned that the horse failed against this level in his last but did note the 5f work 8 days ago and that this trainer 5 back had shipped the horse from Parx to Del and then back to Prx 4 back where it just missed at 33-1. It then scored at Parx l3 then shipped to Mth l2 then back to Parx in last. I checked my 9-11 profile and noted that there were 2 8.3 races which were won by a presser and a sustained horse. Since I had evidence that the track was now favoring early and pressers and the horse had flashed speed in last for a 1/4 and was going off at 16-1 I decided to make a small investment.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Nice one LT1. Congrats.
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Thanks Mitch

[Tim Y]

By keeping a model and a profile I was able to catch the trend and adjust my wagering.

Since I moved all my tracks to the East, I have found that it can switch like that after ONE storm, BUT COLD weather keeps biases alive for weeks.

[Lt1]

It could but we will have to wait and see since Parx tends to favor e and ep horses at most distances on the dirt. The presser sustained winning horses was puzzling to me since there was apparent reason for it . I just went with what I was seeing and will stay with what I see NOW.
Tim G

[MJS6916]

good job Lt1 :)

[Lt1]

Thanks MJS. Funny thing although I've been modeling the tracks I play since 1990, when I joined the group, I got away from keeping a track profile. About 2 months ago I was cutting back from capping 7 days a week to 4 so with some time to kill I replayed some of Brohamers' audio tapes and profiling was mentioned. I decided to check out the results charts from Parx and discovered that my model and the profile for 8.3 fur were showing different pictures. The model was showing the track playing even while the profile show a distinct prresser sustained bias. Horses could win even after being behind as many 10 lengths at the 1st call and 6 at the 2nd. I decided to favor the lp horses when betting. The results were very good until Sunday when the rains came and the track changed. Nothing left to do now but to keep on tracking the profile daily. I believe that our members should take advantage of all the materials available in the library. You never know when you may find a nugget you didn't know or forgot over time.
Tim G

[Tim Y]

Modeling on what works need be DONE from the lines used ENTERING a race, NOT from the charts. No one has the charts PRE-RACE. The interaction of racing styles, energy distribution, and total energy once brought together are free from the chaos and randomness that occurs all the time in races.

Often a presser (acknowledged pre-race by energy distribution) gets bumped or is in tight and demonstrates a different POSITIONAL classification in the contest. One evaluates the standards of energy distribution by the data one has during the pre-race evaluation, NOT after the fact.

POSITIONAL classifications of style often, once the pace of the race has been factored in, can be completely wrong. CASE in fact: War Emblem ran on the lead in his Illinois Derby but did it via a late energy distribution. That suggested his ability that he could last the extra furlong that first Saturday of May if left alone on the lead.

Positional classifications, without the yardstick of pace of the race to use to classify often miss the significance of a pace that fell apart and many a "closer" was in fact a presser that took advantage of a pace that imploded.

Modeling off the e/l has shown to be very accurate, PARTICULARLY when a bias is starting to build up. It is the objective evaluation of style available before the race, a projection number, no matter what happens in the randomness of the contest TODAY.

ENERGY DISTRIBUTION classifications of style, not positional ones (devoid of the pace of the race) are far more accurate long term.

[Lt1]

Tim it is true that the model is for wagering purposes but imo one still needs to know what is happening at the track. Even Brohamer knew and stated that one must not be locked into the model. The reality of what's happening today is also important. If I had bet strictly based on my model I would have lost a majority of the races I won. Also by paying attention to what is happening now one would have noted that in the last 10 races at the dist, the winner was no more then 21/2 behind at the 1st call and was on the lead at the half. A complete reversal of what was happening the previous 34. In short one must evaluate all the available info or as Tom yse to say have the percentages in your favor.
Tim G

[Tim Y]

overall, We are on the same page