Derby seasoning

[tompkins]

First, thanks Ted for the cards to analyze. I am going to put up screen shots of "theoretical" contenders in the Derby who were good, but just not on the first Saturday in May and one of the many liknesses of this group is 6 lifetime starts of less. If you don't come into this race with a decided total energy near the top (>161), style (median in the range of 67.4 to 68 TOPS) and have an edge in all of these categories, it is not going to happen as many will show like Medalia D'Oro for one. Others Scrimshaw, Ten Most Wanted, Congaree, Millenium Wind, Express Tour, .......more to follow as I think Tapit was already exposed this way. Even Empire Maker had 5 lifetime starts but had a big edge in the other categories. Still a strike against that one which the colt almost overcame.

[tompkins]

improvement improvement over inexperience.

[tompkins]

lack of experience cost this one. We know what happened later on.

[tompkins]

not an exhaustive list, but something to consider.
St Averil 5, Freinds Lake 5, Bellamy Road 5, High Fly 6, Greely's Galaxy 4, Lion Heart 5, Flower Alley 4, Bandini 5, Tapit 4, Wild Horses 5, Johannesburg 1 dirt start, Congaree 4, Express Tour 5, Millenium WInd 5, Scrimshaw 5, Birdstone 5, Smarty 6, Quinton's Gold Rush 5, Atswhatimtalkinabout 5, Funny 6, Empire Maker 5, Eye of the Tiger 5, Ten Most Wanted 5.

At 5 lifetime starts, unless there is a big advantage (Monarchos), one might take pause to dowgrade it's chances. Highlighted are those that had OTHER things going for them.

[tompkins]

fell a bit short in the seasoning department

[tompkins]

going the wrong way towards the big race

[tompkins]

not enough races under it's belt

[tompkins]

good down the line when this one had more seasoning

[tompkins]

potential here, just too early

[tompkins]

another one short on experience but not for long.

[Dap Daddi]

Dr. Tompkins:
I keep re-interating that a majority oof the 20 Derby Entrants are missing racing seasoning. Even when one takes a look at Fusaji Pegasis and Sunny's Halo, they did in fact win the Kentucky Derby buts that is all they won. Neither went on to win the Preakness or Belmont.

My point is that if one of the Derby Entrants should win the Big Dance with 6 or lss total lifetime starts, they did bucking the system! Ten of the 20 entrants have eight starts or more. To me I beleive this is where the true winner is gong to come from.

Barbaro: 5 Starts
Sinister Minister: 5 Starts
Sunriver: 6 Starts
Sacred Light: 6 Starts (Only a maiden win of the 6 starts)
Flashy Bull: 9 Starts with just a maiden win.
Storm Treasure: 6 Starts
Jazil: 6 Starts (to add insult to injury only a maiden win!)
Keyed Entry: 5 starts
Showing Up: 3 Starts
Point Determined: 6 starts
Hemingways Key: 6 Starts( One a Maiden and the other a N1X What a joke)
Mister Triester: 8 Starts (Only a Maden win another joke!)
Malameeze: 10 starts with just a maiden win to his credit
Greeley's Galaxy: 10 Starts with a lucky third on a sloppy track in a Gr. 2
Red Raymond: 9 Starts with 2 wins coming in sprint races.

I make this point so that when a true Derby contder is discussed, the pretenders are not brought up in the conversation. In my opinion the above horses are pretenders and should labeled as such.

I am ready to handicap the Derby!

Dap!