hitting the target or the triple 20

[Tim Y]

Up in the frozen North where so many of a British heritage are re-located, DARTS competition is regularly on the sports channel. I watched a bit of it and learned that to get ahead the fastest, competitors try to hit a narrow inner ring, about 3 inches out from the bulls eye where a TRIPLE score can be found. This area is VERY Tight and often after one dart is there, there is so little room that subsequent darts bounce off to the sides. IN OTHER WORDS it is very hard to hit, but because it results in a big score, it is where they want to go.

You can also get points (not as selectively however) in just hitting the inner part of the rings anywhere on the target.

So, in darts, we have SPECIFICITY (difficult to get) with high yield and generality (not so difficult to get) with LOW yield.

Compare to major wagering choices. Hit the WINNER, hard to do and OVERALL not the greatest of a return, or GENERALITY (easier to hit) with often yields so big that you can miss several of them (exotics) and still be ahead.

Add to the fact that ANY LONG TERM survival of a bankroll needs HEALTHY contributions of cash periodically in order to keep going, and you learn, over time, what the pros know: the money is in the exotics NOT STRAIGHT wagering.

if you review your handicapping, it is truly amazing how often the exotics (even the tough supers) are contained in the TOP 6 horses, Even if you used the TRI plus ALL tickets (at a place like Woodbine where supers can be truly HUGE), it is a long term shot to make some serious cash.

I have just finished a YEAR long review of all the exotic bets from last April to December 4th (last 6 cards showed some real odd results but that has been consistent now for the past 4 seasons), and was I surprised at how often the super was in the top 6 animals. A one dollar BOX with two keyed ones is the starting point and it is a money maker. Found the exact same thing at Oaklawn (after the first two weeks of the meeting)

Go back over your records and see if you don't find the same thing. NOW you must follow a venue that has enough $$$$$$$$$ in the pools to make these worth you while. NO races less that 7 horses either: they are a waste of time usually unless a false favorite is among them.

[Mitch44]

Hmm? " Hit the WINNER, hard to do..." Well it's even harder to hit an exotic. ""yields so big that you can miss several of them(exotics) and still be ahead." Well you can also miss several of them and hit one and still not recoup your loses.

Fact of the matter is that with a 6 horse field the natural odds (before handicapping) is 16.6666 % to have a winner and in a 12 horse field its 8.3333% and with exotics WOW!!!
Even with a two horse strike of say 60% the combinations are tremendous. A p-6 ticket alone is ,well I don't even want to think about it.

All I can say is if you can get the two key horses for win and the other 4 correct horses of the field etc. as stated you must be the greatest of all time. The worst horse in the field can finish in any position and destroy any bet. Same with P-3,P-4 and so forth. I can hit 60% with two horse betting and have hit as high as 75% and I just don't believe any of this.

Theory and actually doing something are two different animals altogether. So is betting with real money. Anyone can be good one day and hit a nice exotic, its a whole different story to do it on a consistent basis or even recouping what you have in it over any longer series. I'm not advocating not playing exotics but to accept the facts as they are. Also if all this was true one person would dominate the World Series of Handicapping or even poker for that matter.

Mitch44

[Tim Y]

I used to believe that too, and there are many times that completely illogical horses sneak in, particularly in the 4th slot. I use a second ticket that incorporates the top choices with an ALL ticket to cover those eventualities. Your odds characterization is based upon EACH horse having a similar chance of winning and we all know that is not true.

EVEN with the hit and miss of these outliers, the long term profit on these exotics MORE than makes up for the minuscule short prices of Dutched winners. Hitting one of these keeps the bankroll healthy for dozens of win cycle misses.

One of the great books that Howard Sartin suggested is actually an embodiment of an idea that he put forth as a reading choice for those in the Follow Up. A great book called simply CHAOS by Gleick, or the even more enlightening one: Complexity by Mitchell Waldrop.

Their message: there is structure in what we think is randomness. Find a venue where it is expressed enough and then have at it.

It is there. It might well be other places AGAIN THIS SEASON like Oaklawn was in 2016. I am surely going to look again after the first few weeks of the traditionally uneven two weeks of the season.

[Tim Y]

QUOTE: Also if all this was true one person would dominate the World Series of Handicapping.

Why or why would ANYONE, who could hit like that, WASTE their time in a contest? THIS is wagering prowess NOT HANDICAPPING PROWESS.

In the real world, your ROI is the proof. You don't need other people involved to know that.

[Mitch44]

My characterization isn't based on simple math, I'm well aware of that and it was just an illustration for some one to take it further. Naturally handicapping will reduce the percentages otherwise no one would play this game. The later example I gave of a good handicapping (60% two horse winners) also states that I still don't believe its possible on any kind of consistency as you proclaim and theorize on.

Hell give me enough bananas and I can teach a monkey to throw darts and hit some exotic but not on any consistent basis or guarantee the pay off will exceed the outlay.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Now some other math : 1.two key horses to win with your top 6 horses and $2.00
2. Ex = 10 combination =$20
Tri 40 comb. = $80
SF = 120 comb. = $240
P-3 = 72 comb. = $144
P-4 = 432 comb.= $864
P5 = 2,592 comb.=$ 5,184
P6 = 15,552 = $ 31, 104
#3. Even if your a great handicapper & pick 60% that's means your outliers or dirty shirts are going to be 40% and you'll have then also in your top 6 WHOA Horsy!!!

Now of course you can reduce your wager from $2.00 to .50 cent on some bets and $1.00 on some others however its all relative. Of course there are other more intelligent ways to reduce these combination but that's another topic all together.Hope you have deep pockets or rent an armor car to take to the track.
Mitch44

[Tim Y]

All the wagers I deal with are VERTICAL and have 2 keys to keep the costs down. No races with less than 7 horses. Works well enough to follow it the entire season. Now a proven winner at two meetings. Typical ticket is $144.00 for a buck as the average Super is well above that. Often go to 20 cent tickets for back up in some as well. the TWO keys are PART of the top 6, there are not 8 horses in that ticket.

Meeting MUST have enough money in the pools to pay off: would NEVER work at Fairmont Park, Portland Meadows, Fair Grounds, Turf Paradise, California State Fairs etc etc. Going to follow Turfway this winter for a few weeks to see if it has the Structure within Chaos that these successful venues have. Laurel sounded good in THEORY but it did not pass muster (big fields were the enticement there). Biggest payouts have been in the bigger fields which makes sense.

Also one must stay away from things that have no data: babies on the grass the first time, FULL fields of first time starters (although a few came through but not enough for long term play), overwhelming favorites that are logical (waste of effort in those as even when you WIN the bet you don't win much cash)

None of these are just BOXED.

[Tim Y]

The later example I gave of a good handicapping (60% two horse winners) also states that I still don't believe its possible on any kind of consistency as you proclaim and theorize on.

Mitch44
How one does in WINNERS is mutually exclusive to how one does in getting the contenders as they battle for the wire late. This is just a bet of the CONTENDERS without order.

NO ONE can survive betting winners long term as there is too much CHAOS from the 1/8th poll to the wire (I should know as I see more races per week than most see in a month). This approach accepts that chaos and builds it into the ticket.

HINT: One has to find the venue where this works. IT IS FAR ROM A UNIVERSAL FINDING. Going through about 25 venues seriously, I found it worked at just TWO of them to any degree of repetition.

[Tim Y]

ONE VERY IMPORTANT THING one must to adhere to, a tip that I learned from Dick Mitchell.

To paraphrase him: As soon as most players go through a rough patch, they fundamental change their approach to the game disregarding the fact that RANDOMNESS WILL rear its ugly head and it is logical that a good player can lose up to 7 times IN A ROW. The steadfast player, AWARE from reams of records that his play will work, has to stay at it in the same processes for just down the road it may HIT 5 times in a row.

One has to have lots of self confidence in what they are doing to walk up to that window the 8th time.....

[Mitch44]

Ah ha! There's the rub so to speak, you never said vertical bets only. That's a horse of a different color.

I totally disagree with your premise that win betting can't be profitable because of the chaos from the 1/8 pole to the wire. Fact of the matter is that if there is chaos from the 1/8 pole to the wire it's in your handicapping.

A bet you conveniently left out here is the DD. I left it out because the odds are the same as an exacta under your play of keying two winners with your top 6 picks. Facts are it's easier to pick winners than an exacta because any horse can pop up into the place slot and ditto for the show & 4th slot. Even with the exacta you better be looking at payoffs as many of those bets won't break you even for the amount bet or outlay.

As far as betting the Tri. & SF your betting into unknown payoffs and forcing yourself to over extend your outlay and capital. Now there are better betting procedures and ways to reduce that effect and as you say to which I totally agree betting is a very important aspect of this game. Even the horizontal bets can be improved upon to reduce the number of combinations.
Good luck with your approach of that in the long run. Betting combinations that the public hammers without consideration to payoffs is a fools game. Personally I'm not betting an exacta that the public hammers to a $7.00 payoff and I put in $20 for my top two with my top 6 as you profess. Just not good sound advice. Best of luck through with that.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

BTW if there is chaos from the 1/8 pole to the wire for winners and we can't make money on win betting can you imagine what that chaos is from the 1/8 pole to the wire for place, show and the 4th slot for the SF ?

Mitch44

[Tim Y]

Hard to believe that one of the SLOWEST racing surfaces out there, Mahoning Valley, is proving (in an otherwise too small a sample) to be another one. Only problem is that it hits but there is not enough money in the pools to carry on long term.

[Tim Y]

QUOTE: "Fact of the matter is that if there is chaos from the 1/8 pole to the wire it's in your handicapping."

You really NEED to read The Drunkard's Walk: Ho Randomness Rules our Lives....as you put far too much faith is believing that history will EXACTLY repeat itself once you have discoverer it. IT will not I assure you.

THIRD fractions are NOT reproducible because they have a varying dependence upon the point at which they START. Speed early by any horse is the most predictable of the fractions and it goes down from there on the main course.

NO, Having watched HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of close photo finishes and the random reasons that preclude the logical horse getting their head down first, it became OBVIOUS to me that once the CONTENDERS get to that critical part of the race, DUMB LUCK takes a hand.

One of the most productive of all projects at the start of this long journey (the nidus of this idea actually because I never bet exotics until recently) was the angle "Riding the Coat Tails."

How often in a blanket finish (less than a length among three horses) does the odds on horse run third and the tri is relatively HUGE for that close a shot by the favorite? (three years of study: the answer was A LOT). People do not go deep enough in their exotics outside of the favorite on top or at worst second. There is a blind spot for exploitation there.

Get the horse you KNOW has a great shot to hit the board. It drags other longer priced animals in with it who RIDE THE COAT TAILS, parimutuelly, of the projected winner.

This is GAMBLING, not handicapping. These observations are a true today as they always have been over the last years of this ongoing study. IT WAS ONLY when I divorced the very different requirements on each side the handicapping/wagering equation did I see these patterns were more lucrative, however random their occurrence. You have to bide your time breaking even here and there and missing until the randomness of the situation breaks through with a big score to tide you over.

One has to embrace the force that is around us all the time and never gets the credit it deserves: RANDOMNESS. This idea of perfect determinism is a pipe dream. The world is not like that. Read The Black Swan and become enlightened to how much randomness is just dismissed by a fictitious stories overlaid on what we THINK is cause and effect when, in reality, it is the effect of PURE CHANCE.

[Tim Y]

Personally I'm not betting an exacta that the public hammers to a $7.00 payoff and I put in $20 for my top two with my top 6 as you profess. Just not good sound advice. Best of luck through with that.
Mitch44

Different POOL can be night and day

[Tim Y]

Way back when Maryland ran three major venues each year, poor old (now defunct) Bowie got the worst of the dates and suffered through severe winters trying to present day to day cards. The weather was so bad that IT ALONE became a major handicapping factor.

Mid to late 70's and exactas were a new bet to racing nationally. At that time ONLY WIN odds were posted each contest. Came up almost a blizzard and two horses finished in an exacta at 12/1 and 5/1 (or those ranges as I recall). Even though the odds board lit up over the win place payouts, the exacta for a deuce was only around $35.00. There was a near riot and later this race (for the sake of any ongoing public confidence in that track) after an investigation by the Maryland Racing Commission, did they find out that the top two (who shared a word in their names like OUR pro and MY pro for example) were the 4th favorite exacta combination. It was assumed many people there (small crowd anyway) put the two together has a hunch bet with the results that the EXOTIC pool had these horses well represented and NOT SO in the straight pool.

This is, of course, an extreme example, but it happens all the time to some degree. Thanks for the exotic payout notifications now.

Our standardbred called (Ken ) often announces at the start of the pick 4 which animals are different in the straight and pick 4 pools as to give the crowd a head's up.

[Mitch44]

Your right about payout notifications and it can make a huge difference in your wagering.
Mitch44