Hypothetical scenario - what to do?

[Jeebs]

Kind of a crude example (no PPs), but looking for some help or insight.

Horse is entered in a 6 furlong sprint today. His previous 7 starts are all turf routes with lines 8 through 10 on dirt sprinting way back when over 250 days ago. His EPR/LPR stick on turf favors a late style, yet his sprint races on dirt are favoring early. Current turf form is OK and his precious dirt races are good as well.

My first inclination would be not to select a paceline for this horse. Remember, the last comparable line came 250 days ago, 8 starts ago. Ancient history. Given how this horse distributes its speed on turf compared to dirt, using a turf line could be very dangerous. However, using what I consider as a "stale" dirt line can also be dangerous. If there a reliable indicator that this horse will run back to his previous dirt form, I'm not seeing it.

What are your thoughts and advisement?

[Mitch44]

I would use the dirt line and same distance line, best of lines 8 through 10 back. Even doing that the horse may not come up as a contender. I would review his recent turf races to see if he is the same horse as in previous turf races, that would indicate to me he is well meant. Additionally I would review available trainer stats for further indication of trainers intent and ability.

At best he is an unknown factor and if another horse is an unknown factor I would pass the race. Lastly with a two horse bet it allows me to be wrong and still have the winner and if correct probably get a good payoff as the public most likely won't bet this type of horse. The two horse bet and odds will smooth out these type of plays. I've made these type of plays before and have confidence in it however if your not comfortable with this then pass the race. That's my approach to this situation and have no problem going back that far to get a line at a similar distance and surface. ****You have to treat all horses the same when it comes to the same surface and distance.*****

Lt1 and I collaborated back in the early 90's at the Meadowland's seminar with a similar situation but it was a turf race and we used a line 8 back which was it's only turf line. We were the only ones to have this big longshot. The "Doc and "The Hat" were surprised we had it and were interested how we got it. Have done this ever since. As I said through if your uncomfortable with this then pass the race.

Best of luck.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Mitch I remember that race well. The horse paid $50 and the ex over $600. Tim Brothers was making his 1st trip from England and paid for his whole trip with that race. Jeebs to answer your question if I believe the horse is in reasonable form then I will go back and get a dirt line if there's a good line to use. I would also add the I tend to go back less with cheaper horses and also look to see how the trainer does with this type of move. In the East when turf racing resumes in the Spring you will see this a lot. Horses who didn't go to Fla or other warm weather tracks have either been laid up or been running over dirt surfaces. Only you can make this choice based on your feel and record keeping. It really is a subjective call
Tim G

[Bill V.]

hello Micth, Tim and Jeebs

Jeebs, I saw this horse from another post ,


I would use line 1 It mirrors line 4 , its maiden win
When we see calculated readouts in RDSS the line is adjusted to today's distance and surface , So even though the line is a route line the phase 1 readouts are adjusted to as if the horse ran today's distance 6 furlongs

in the example here I since i get confirmation from the old line
I would use the last line , I would look at the raw POR fractions
of sprint portion of the route race at 47 and change and 111 time looks comparable to the sprinters lines

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[Mitch44]

Lt1 I remembers Brothers asking us who we liked and then he went and played it. We had been to a seminar or two but still hadn't been with Sartin that long, I suppose we looked like we knew what we were doing. ha ha We followed the Doc's guidelines for picking pace lines.

As LT1 said you'll see this up north when grass racing returns in the spring and for months their form has been darkened while running on the dirt. Additionally some trainers, even good ones are slow to figure out a horses best surface and or distance. This happens a lot. A classic example was the great Cigar who was a mediocre horse on turf getting in the money on turf but never winning however when switched to dirt became unbeatable on dirt and becoming a champion.
Mitch44

[The Pook]

Jeebs I remembered your posting of this hypothetical situation and was looking for a live example to come along. They do occasionally and are often good payoffs.

Todays 9th at GP was one such example. Had it down to three contenders of which the 4 looked live but had no recent dirt races. Only one lonely one at the bottom. It was comparable in speed to recent poly sprints. That 10th line put the 4 into a betting situation. If I used the best of last three comparable (3rd pace line) I would have bet the other two instead or just made it a non-contender. Like the guys above said you look for confirming factors. The lifetime stats top right show it 5 for 26 in sprints. Not bad. 7-1.

Admittedly it is riskier and you do miss a lot but the payoffs make up for it. This price was only mediocre for a 10th pace line horse but nice just the same especially in a six horse field.

Pook

[Mitch44]

Yes for a small field a $ 17.60 payoff is good, also a nice exacta. They do tend to pay off good and the prices do make up for your loses. I use the Doc's teaching of best of the last 3 at a similar distance and surface and let that take me where ever it takes me."The Pook" nice handicapping.
Mitch44

[raceman5]

hit Pook. Mike Pizzola always used to say if a horse is in form which the four was then u are entitled to open all the pace lines for choosing. I would of used the 10th line myself.

Bob

[Bill V.]

Good work Mr.

hit Pook. Mike Pizzola always used to say if a horse is in form which the four was then u are entitled to open all the pace lines for choosing. I would of used the 10th line myself.

Bob


Hey Bob I would have used line 2 or 3. However your line 10 sure confirms
the 2 and 3rd line as for as e/l and tpr ability at GP

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[Lt1]

Nice going Pook. This example was just the type of horse where going back made perfect sense. The price more then compensated for the risk and if you are a 2 horse bettor you still had another shot if the 4 failed to come thru.
Tim G