Laurel Race 6 1/22 workup

[Bill V.]

I was asked to work this race, The race was from Sunday
I will work it up step by step,
I don't know scratches or track condition, I have no records from Laurel
Park so I will use what tools I have, from the PP's

First here is the set up screen

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[Bill V.]

The race is 6 furlongs for 4+ males Open claiming 7.500

The mL shows a strong 1.6/1 then 2.5, But then a gap to 5 and 6 /1 aand then 3 longer
odds horses 8,10 and 12/1

The RX says 2 4-7 1,6 3

[Bill V.]

Here are the runners

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42109

42110

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[Bill V.]

field 5 6 7

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42112

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[Bill V.]

I hace maked the running styles

1- EP
2- E
3- Sus ( after layoff line 4)
4- SP
5- S
6- P
7- EP

Next is the Fulcrum

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The 4, 5 and 6 come out of the same race with the fastest POR second call (46.8 ) but the track was sly -8
The 4 is the qualifier since it was beaten less than 5 at the second call and final time
The 4 has run competitivly against a 46.8 POR so the 4 is the fulcrum.

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[Bill V.]

Im going to take a break so you can look over the race

The next step when i return will be to look at the last line TPR ratings for all 7 horses

Good Skill
Bill

[shoeless]

Bill,

I noticed you used sly lines for some horses, I would have gone a race back
from those for a fast track

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff
I have not selected lines yet, I still am in the initial steps , You, more than anyone live by doing your work before you turn on the computer :-)
Before I can select my lines I need to know what each horse ran off the last line ,
You will see why I do this shortly. Also when I start. I select the last line for each horse so I can identify the fulcrum pace of race .

Once I get the information I need from the last line , I will go back and select lines
and make changes

Lastly I wanted to post the PP,s for each horse and I have RDSS auto selection set to last line , so in honesty I just made screen shots and the last line no matter what track condition was selected, I was not handicapping the race at that point yet.

[shoeless]

Bill

You made very valid points thanks for explanation and your right about me doing
the work before I turn the computer on

Jeff

[Fairchild]

Is their anymore to this thread? Has it simply not been posted yet? Bill V., I always find your posts helpful and interesting. Thank you for your time and knowledge.

[Bill V.]

Is their anymore to this thread? Has it simply not been posted yet? Bill V., I always find your posts helpful and interesting. Thank you for your time and knowledge.

Yes I am just giving it some time so people can work along if they want to,

I will get to the next step shortly :) I have already got good feed back
so thank you.

Bill

[Bill V.]

this is a small field. So the winner being in the top 5 TPR off the last line
means little in this race , but i always run the last lines and the winner is
just about always in the top 5.

Another helpful trick I get from this step is to look at the top tpr numbers
here the 7 and 4 get 178's So I would think the winner of this rce will be in the range of a 178,

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[Bill V.]

Here are my pace line selections

Pace lines

Horse 1 , Its 3 best TPRs are 176.5 177.0 and 178.7
Recent form does not indicate a 5 point improvement is likely today.
Line 1 is + race with a slight drop in class today.
The line is a off track but with a 11 DTV but I will use it

Horse 2 Back off a 37 day layoff, Its best TPR's are 179,twice 179.5 and 178.8 in the last
line at the same class level and distance no reason to go past line 1.

Horse 3 Off 50 days. Its best TPR's are 175.2 178.7 175.9 but recent form is a issue.
In these cases of a horse off a layoff, I look at a similar layoff patterns
I will use line 4 line from a gd LRL race afer aa 39 day layoff.


Horse 4 Our fulcrum horse Fresh off a 29 day layoff 'freshener'
Its best TPR's are 176.2 177.5 176.2 and 178.2 i will use line 2 only because the 178.2 maybe
because of the off track and I am worried to give a best ever line to a horse off a layoff
with no workouts. So Line 2

Horse 5 Best TPR's are 180.5 178.7 and 180.5 I will use line 2 for the exact same reason as horse 4
except horse 5 has run 180 before and I will excuse the sly line 1. So Line 2

Horse 6 Best TPR's are 182 179 and 177 twice Same race as the 4 and 5 and again I excuse the Sly line 1 and will
use line 2.

Horse 7 Best TPR's are 178, 179.5 and 175.9, This is a dangerous horse. The last line could have a higher tpr
but for a not so hot 83.4 LPR . This horse has form issues.
It ran a 92.5 EPR against CL 10's but faded, first back off a layoff, Now today its back again off a layoff
plus its dropping below its claiming price I will use line 1.

[Bill V.]

Okay, I hope you have really looked over the race slowly
and followed my steps , so far

This is how I do every race, I also will use the RX 3 and VDC readouts
in RDSS. If my TPR analysis needs me to make final decisions.

I did not use them here cause the person who requested this race only uses phase 1


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Final analysis

The top 2 TPR horses are the 5 and 6 with 180.5 and 179.0
The 2 is close with a 178.8

There is a little gap to the next horses #7 and #4 with a 175.9 and 175

The 1 and 3 look out of it in this match up
The 1 is not in the the top 3 in EPR, or LPR
The 3 has the 3rd best LPR but based on the Fulcrum por,
The 3 looks like it will be too far back at the EP with only a 83.4


Betting I don't know what final odds were so I will use the Morning line

The best EP horse is the 7,
Based on the ml of 10/1 and I feel a improvement in the LPR is possible with the drop
It would be my first bet mm :/ but this is a neg dropper If i got 8/1 or higher I wold bet the 7
other wise I would look to the top 2 TPR horses #5 and 6

I will go check the results and post them in a while
Good skill

Bill

[Bill V.]

Well win or lose, This is how I handicap I would have done this race, in this exact same method
I would have lost, because I made the decision to move off the last line
The winner # 2 was the 1.6 ML favorite but went off at 2.80/1

The winner had the best TPR off the last line, so naturally the winner
of this race like so many other comes from one of the top 5 tprs
just from the last line. The POR was 46.4 which shows the fulcrum
method in action .

Sorry no winning trumpets this time
My win bets finished second and third

The 7 off the neg drop went off at 11/1 and was out of the money

Till next time
Good Skill
Bill
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[shoeless]

Bill,

I would like to see how you would have used RX3 and VDC with this

Doesn't matter if you won or lost race just showing how you
go about doing it is what matters the most. If you would have boxed
top 3 horses you would have hit exacta

I did pick up from this something I should do is pick contenders first
then pacelines, some others have told me the same

Nice workup of race

Jeff

[shoeless]

Bill,

You had the Tri and Super as well

Also noticed how big of a gap between top 3 horses and 4th


Jeff

[Fairchild]

That was very interesting Bill, thank you for your time and knowledge.