BL vs Rx1, Rx2, Rx3

[mick]

Small sample with no Maiden, Maiden Clm, 2YO, 3YO, or stakes. It's claimers on dirt from PRX, MVR, OP and TAM, all recent races.

http://i65.tinypic.com/xeld01.jpg

mick

[mick]

There is a consistent theme through all of our small statistical studies - Rx2 and Rx3 are potent. (I say "small" because we really need a thousand sprints and a thousand routes, but that takes time.)

Ted casually mentioned that to me at Woodbine last summer. I was working up a race on RDSS while he looked over my shoulder. He suggested that I toss a 5th horse because of his Rx3 ranking, which reduced my contenders to four. At the time, I didn't fully appreciate the significance of his suggestion but after working through these races, I do now.

BTW, all of my number-crunching was done in Microsoft Access. I modified Ted's "Master Template" so that Access would import the data from Excel. If anyone is interested, I'll tell you how I went about it.

mick

[Lt1]

Thanks for the info Mick.
Tim G

[Ted Craven]

Mick, I modified some incorrect summary stats, per your request.

I did some quick figuring based on your table above.

Sprints: Top 4%
Rx1 -- 62%
Rx2 -- 77%
Rx3 -- 79%

Routes: Top 4%
Rx1 -- 71%
Rx2 -- 73%
Rx3 -- 71%

Those Sprint % hit rates for Top 4 Rx2 and Rx3 look pretty good - better than Morning Line and better than Post-time Odds, I think Not sure if the Route figures are cumulatively better than Top 4 Post-time odds.

It will be important to discover how the Top 5 rank of any of these factors compares to the payout ranked by Post-time odds (PTO). PTO (and its close cousin 'bet-time odds' - the known odds when you could still make a bet) are the baseline for all factors from an elimination point of view. If the Top 4 PTO wins, say - 72% of the time (in any reasonably large data set), then any factor which hits worse than that is not adding much value.

My sense of things is: any revelatory factor stat summary like Mick's above and others, needs to compare BL, the Rx factors, ML and Post-time odds (final odds, as a proxy for bet-time odds): comparing hit rate% and average mutuel.

My prediction is: Rx3 (and maybe Rx2) hit better than any of the foregoing factors including post-time odds rank, and at slightly better average mutuel. It would be nice to see that study, from several race filter set points of view!

Mick - one more question. Could you describe in general your process for paceline selection and Contender separation? Of course, that is all individual, warts and all. Which is why each person's stats will fluctuate compared to others' (except if the process is entirely and rigorously automated or defined in a 'playbook').

Finally, I certainly don't imply that one should handicap just from these high level factors alone. The horses outside of Top 4 whatever (e.g. those 21% of Sprints outside of Top 4 Rx3) may have Matchup advantages (dominant Early, Late closer in a field top-heavy with Earlies, etc), class advantages or whatever, and will always pay better when they hit. Though - often they get elevated from an otherwise Rank5+ position to rank4 or rank3 by the judicious elimination of a high ranked 'pretender-contender'. Which is why I was curious about the nuances of your Contender separation guidelines.

Thanks for this work Mick - looking forward to more!

Ted

[mick]

Ted asked, "Could you describe in general your process for paceline selection and Contender separation?"

Those are easy questions for me. In most cases, I use the default "Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable" for paceline selection. The exceptions are few and obvious. For example, a maiden claiming winner with that one gaudy figure and now facing a field of winners. Or an older claimer (I play a lot of claiming races) with paired, lifetime tops. Statistically, he's going to regress, absent evidence to the contrary. Or a bad pace setup with multiple E's, all with their best lines selected, or an "S" in a paceless race and its selected line is from a hot-pace race. Regardless, it has to be a strong and obvious reason for me to change a paceline. (And for that reason, the statistics above are from races with default pacelines, with few exceptions.)

I separate contenders primarily on odds. I'm a two-horse bettor and I'll play a low-odds horse as a hedge if I can get 4-1 or higher on another. A little action on Tote Xray is always encouraging too. Hit several of those second horses in a 20-race cycle and you'll make a profit. Doc Sartin cautioned about getting in a hole. I've tried several approaches and hedging on a low-odds horse is the best way for me to stay even while I wait on the high-odds horse to come home. Stuff happened in a horse race and those horses do win, as we all know. :)

mick