Practice Race for fun - OP 6th - 4/6/17

[Jeebs]

This looks like a fun race to practice with on a rainy day. I have to be at work while this is going on, so I don't anticipate putting any money. However, I felt that the paceline practice would be beneficial.

Here are the race conditions:

43144

[Jeebs]

#1
43145

#2
43146

#3
43147

[Jeebs]

#4
43148

#5
43149

#6
43150

[Jeebs]

#7
43151

#8
43152

[Jeebs]

You now have the conditions and the past performances at your disposal. I want to see the multiple directions members take in their paceline/contender selections.

I had a member message me last night stating that they "have not learned more about line selection since joining here and lurking and seeking a way." Perhaps I took this individual's message out of context, but I feel that if we are going to post races/selections/etc, the least we can do is explain WHY we selected a line. Ultimately, "the way" this individual is talking about is all an individual process. It is kind of like the "image" portrayed at a poker table. Some people are loose in their selection criteria so that they can extract value from pacelines that the general public's $$$ usually misses because they are typically "recency oriented", while others employ a "tight" image, which means they are strictly focused on the Doc's fundamentals or a strict set of guidelines and axioms based on past experiences or research mining. It's about comfort level as well as success, both of which are measurable by keeping records.

[Bill V.]

**^

43153

[Jeebs]

:o Missed the distance. The detailed class was there.

[Bill V.]

Good idea Jeebs

without a selection
Here are my race notes and pacelines

Good Skill
Bill

OP race 6 CL 25 N1-3M 4 +

Step 1 ALAWYS !
Top 5 TPR line 1. 4, 1, 7, 6, 8
Fulcrum POR EPR
(pace of race- Early Pace Rating )
Horse 4 EPR 89.7 + 3.3 = 91 POR
Has horse 4 run 1 or more + races against
a 91 POR ? answer YES
line 1 ,3 and 5 The 4 is my fulcrum POR
with a 91

Horses notes
1 Golden Moon. EARLY Line 1 is a (+) it is the last race of that form cycle . Line 2 is a = pace
line against today's expected POR a w/w win
line 2 is my line Its a recent + race.

2. My Brother Dan . Early , Form issues The last
2 lines are beaten 26 lengths It can certainly handle a 91 POR when in form but
today that is unknown ? I will rate off line 3

3. Morning Buzz EP Router Today starts a new form cycle, Its adjusted EPRs put it slower than today's POR can it win off a layoff ? and sprinting ? It shows 2 other 60 + day layoffs
with no wins and no shown wins sprinting. No line

4. Mr. Right Sus. Today starts a new form cycle
Moves up after a 2nd place effort in line 1
Its my fulcrum horse Line 1

5. Rod Mcleod Early back from a 4 week rest
today starts anew form cycle after being claimed last time. No choice but to rate off line 4
but the slow 87.5 EPR for a early horse is a red flag

6. Cash Bonus Presser another layoff horse
Line 1 is (+) It also qualify s as a top 5 TPR
from line 1 of all the horses which is a positive
Ships in from FG so how will it run at OP ?
I will rate off line 1

7. Alabama Tide Presser another layoff horse
This one also is a top 5 TPR line 1 horse
Today starts a new form cycle It has run + races after layoffs Line 2 from LRC is q quirky track but the 179 TPR is supported by lines
7 and 10 line 2

Horse 8 Charlesbreckenridge Recent form is bad. TPR is top 5 but this one is going the wrong way. Nothing about its EPR POR suggest it will be able to keep up

[raceman5]

The first thing I see in looking over the PP's is that there are 3 E horses. Now if you have read the hat file with Jimmy and Richie you know when they saw this out they went, unless there was a speed of a speed horse and in this race, there is not. Both the 1 and 5 are capable of running first quarters in the 21 and change range, so to me, there is no speed of the speed IMO. My 2 horses will be the 4 and 7 who can both run off a 45 and change.

By the way in the first race at Aqueduct today there is a Hat spot play see if you can find it and report back.


Bob

[Jeebs]

The first thing I did, sort of like Bill, was establish the Pace of Race, but using Total Energy (TE) to do so. I examined the last line of each horse, the objective being to answer these three questions:

1) Who ran against the fastest PoR in its last line?
2) Were they competitive against that PoR?
3) If the horse was competitive, do other races support it?

That horse in this case, as Bill concluded via the Pizzolla fulcrum method, would be #4, Mr. Right. In Line 1, it ran against a 169.8 TE, while running 2nd by 2.5 lengths and registering a 169.2 TE. Analysis of other lines was simple, as Line 2 saw this horse compete successfully vs. a 170.5 TE, while registering a 169.5 TE on its own. Line 3 saw this horse win vs. a 169.7, where it matched that PoR.

1 - Early Run Style. The 1st thing I notice was a (+) line in its last race vs. a 171.5 TE pace. However, that pace proved to be its undoing, as it fell apart between the 2nd call and Finish. I excused the line and moved down to Line 2. Line 2 was a + line AND a wire to wire win while establishing a 168.9 TE pace. It also happens to be the best overall perceptor rating. That was my line choice.

2 - Early Run Style. The two most recent races suggest that this runner has some form defects that are troublesome. As Bill points out, today starts a new form cycle, but you really don't know what you are going to get out of this horse. Why the lack of speed in its last? Could it have been a poor post position? Since Line 2 was a (+) line, I decided to give the horse a line based on the 3rd line down, which was a + line wire to wire win, while establishing a 169.3 TE pace. That is close enough to contend today. However, with its recent issues, the pace could be its undoing.

3 - Unknown factor. This horse is cutting back from route races. It is also starting a new form cycle, but why has it been laid up for 63 days? Physical issues? Its record at the distance and sprinting overall has been marginal at best. While it won vs. a 169.4 going two turns at Churchill back in the fall (October 1, 2016), I can't draw a conclusion of how it will fare today on the cutback. You can either choose that line, or let the trend be your friend and let the horse beat you. I chose the latter.

4 - Sustained Presser. This was the horse we established the TE pace off of for the reasons explained above. Even though Line 3 was a better perceptor total, Line 3 was at 6.5F while Lines 1 and 2 are at today's distance. I chose Line 2.

5 - Early Run Style. Since Line 1 was up against a 171.0 TE pace and was a (+) line, I decided to go for the next comparable line. It happens to be Line 4, a 7F race at Churchill back 130 days ago. Mind you, this is not ideal, but the window is open and I will attempt to rate this horse. It ran wire to wire in 168.6 TE. Clearly, if this horse tries to go with other earlies, it could be in serious trouble. Likely non-contender.

6 - Early Run Style. This runner has been up against fast PoR's in its previous three starts. It hung on vs a 171.8 TE in its last, holding 3rd through the stretch call. Since I didn't consider Line 2 (7.5F at Delta, two turns) as comparable, I reached to Line 3, 140 days ago at Churchill. Again, not ideal, but since this horse has been competitive vs this pace, I rated it off its 171.2 TE + win line going early. The other early runners could burn up bad if they have to race against anything similar to what this one is capable of setting.

7 - Presser. I excused Line 1, as it was up against a rapid 172.5 TE off the layoff in its last. I went down to Line 2, 112 days ago at Los Alamitos, where it won off a 169.8 TE pace.

8 - Ugly. The horse is not competitive against any pace in the 170's recently. The form is downhill.

Based on my lines, I prefer #6 and #7 to counter.

[The Pook]

By the way in the first race at Aqueduct today there is a Hat spot play see if you can find it and report back.


Bob

Bob I assume you meant the lone E #4. I didn't go to Aqu today because of the slop. Not so sure he was lone early because of the sprinters. Maybe that was what you meant. Sprinters compromising an early router.

Pook

[The Pook]

From a matching viewpoint I am surprised to see myself on the exact same numbers as Jeebs.

Bob is right, there are three matching early horses, 1,2, and 5 which project a pace around 21.6, 45.1. None look dominant. For me this eliminated one of the likely favourites (who Bob likes, #4). The 4's best are against mid 22's and mid 45's. I see a tighter pace as above.

To me only see 6 and 7 are successful against that with the 6 ahead of the 7. I had their power lines (pace lines) as 3rd and 2nd respectively.

6,7 depending on odds

Pook

[papajohn3times]

Just as pure speculation,I would probably bet the 7 but I might be persuaded to PASS because of the layoffs and such. Question? How do you guys(and gals!) determine "starts a new form cycle today)? Is it based on a certain amount of days off?
Thanks again and good luck folks!
Papa John

[The Pook]

6 - Early Run Style. This runner has been up against fast PoR's in its previous three starts. It hung on vs a 171.8 TE in its last, holding 3rd through the stretch call. Since I didn't consider Line 2 (7.5F at Delta, two turns) as comparable, I reached to Line 3, 140 days ago at Churchill. Again, not ideal, but since this horse has been competitive vs this pace, I rated it off its 171.2 TE + win line going early. The other early runners could burn up bad if they have to race against anything similar to what this one is capable of setting.


There are always differing viewpoints in the same methodology. Jeebs calls #6 an early but I see him as relegated to slightly off the pace with the 1,2 and 5 in here. He can pass horses and so I see him possibly being successful from there.

Pook

[The Pook]

Just as pure speculation,I would probably bet the 7 but I might be persuaded to PASS because of the layoffs and such. Question? How do you guys(and gals!) determine "starts a new form cycle today)? Is it based on a certain amount of days off?
Thanks again and good luck folks!
Papa John

Papa, I don't often pay attention to layoffs or form cycles but the last race for the 7 showed a nice enough move to consider him not out of form.

Pook

[Lt1]

Interesting race
#1 L2
#2 L3
#3 L4 COUNTER ENERGY
#4 L3
#6 L3
#7 L2
I'LL GO 4-7-3-6
Tim G

[Lt1]

Hi Papa. I consider a new form cycle starting when a horse breaks its' mdn and is facing winners for the 1st time, horses coming off a layoff of 45 days or more, a horse changing
surfaces for the 2nd race in a row or changing racing circuits.
Tim G

[Mitch44]

6th OP 6 Apr.17
Lines:
#1 L 1 tough choice between Lines 1&2, 1 has a better POH TE & POR TE but not as good a Percept as L 1
I did the other horses then ran both lines and line 1 came out best
#2 L 4 did this one after #1 and others choice was between lines 3 & 4, I went for L 4 because it had a better variant and that variant was more attuned or compared to the other variant for other horses.
#3 L 4 all route races, threw L2 off track, used best precept of last 3
#4 L 3 best precept of last 3
#5 L 7 eliminated lines 3, 4, & 5 which were S lines and horse is an E horse, L 5 was a route out, L7 best TE of POH & POR and precept.
#6 L 3 Best TE of POH & POR & precept.
#7 L 2 best TE of POH and precept
#8 L 3 best TE of POH and best precept.
#1, #2 & # 5 all appear to be NTL and the race appears set up for a closer
However I believe it will run early. I tossed the #1 as the worse of the 3.
Top5: 5-2-4-7-3
Order 5-2-4-7 Note 4 & 7 very close. 5 & 2 have some back class, not sure the 5 & 2 remain sound and form is questionable but work outs indicate to be OK only need one to be OK, ML odds justify the risk, plus a tough race & tough lines.
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

#6 loses its rider out of the gate and the entire complexion of the race changes. Tough game.

[Bill V.]

I consider a new form cycle based on many things ,
Number 1 is a layoff of over 30 days 4 week or 1 month in the barn.
Other form cycle changes are a different distance , a different surface, The first race after a claim, any win line is usually the end of that form cycle, As a horse should be facing tough completion following the win ,Even a negative dropper is starting anew after a win or close finish but is being dropped in class

[Mitch44]

This one got everybody. Tough, tough race.
Mitch44

[The Pook]

#6 loses its rider out of the gate and the entire complexion of the race changes. Tough game.

Yeah but that was a nice choice of race Jeebs. Most of us had a chance of doing well had the 6 stayed in the race. I was all over it. Prime bets. To no avail. Even when you do everything you can, you often fall short.

Pook

[The Pook]

Matching early horses don't relent to off the pacers as often as people think. The 1 had the fastest first fraction of all of last race but certainly wasn't dominant. The 1/2 length and 1/2 length first and second call was interesting but would have been more interesting with hd and hd. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1 won anyway with 6 in there, the way it turned out. It went mid 22's and 46 so the intensity didn't develop. Helps to explain why he hung on. The 6 wasn't there to push.

Pook

[Jeebs]

We can try another tomorrow. Maybe this time we won't get dumped out of the gate! :)

[ssag0]

Isn't the 1 the actual lone early here? And on the rail? He is a true need to lead horse he has the rail and looks to be the fastest on this course to the lead.

[For The Lead]

I want to thank JEEBS for posting all the horses in this race and I suggest that he do this for every race he posts so people can follow along with all his comments on line selection. I think they’ll appreciate his efforts in doing so.

Now, since this is just a “FUN RACE” for “PRACTICE”, let’s see how it would have worked out using For The Lead’s guidelines.

First, there are no horses with a ML of 20/1 or higher, so all horses remain in.
Second, all horses have a race in the last 90 days, so all horses remain in.

Ok, on to contender/line selection. Just as a refresher, use the last line as long as it is a comparable distance and surface and is a “+” or a “(+)” line.
If the last line is not a “+” or a “(+)” race, then there must be a “VALID” and I emphasize “VALID” reason to go back ONE line. Don’t’ MAKE UP EXCUSES. Any line older than 90 days will not be used. Let’s see how it goes.

#1 – LINE-1, This is a “(+)” line where the horse shows good early speed. Just because the horse faded after the second call is not a reason to believe it will fade after the second call today.
#2 – NO LINE, there appears to be no VALID reason to go back one line.
#3 – NO LINE, all lines showing are route races.
#4 – LINE -1, this is a “+” race and there is no reason to go back any further.
#5 – LINE-1, this is a “(+)” line. As with horse #1, there is no reason to assume it will fade after the second call today just because it faded in its’ last race.
#6 – NO LINE, there were only two lines to consider, line 1 and line 2. Neither of these lines are a “+” or a “(+)” race and I would certainly not use line 2 from DeD (a bull ring) no matter what.
#7 – NO LINE, the only line to consider is the last line since it is the only race in the last 90 days. Since that line is not a “+” or a “(+)” race the horse does not get a line.
#8 – NO LINE, the horses last three lines are just plain bad.

So, we have as contenders horses #1, #4 and #5.

I don’t have access to RDSS so I can’t post any screen shots for you. For those who are interested enough, try entering the horses I have as contenders and use the lines I suggested and see how it would have worked out for you.

I have posted many races on Pace and Cap and every single one of them were done exactly the same way. Consistency is the key. If you want to go look at them here is a link. http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=116 Sorry, but you will have to look through some of these various threads as I was not the thread starter in every case.

Best of luck to everyone!

[dlivery]

:1: :1: This is my take on a early horse there are always differing viewpoints in the same methodology. Jeebs calls #6 an early but i see him as relegated to slightly off the pace with the 1,2 and 5 in here. He can pass horses and so i see him possibly being successful from there.

Pook

[Mitch44]

I have an 11:00 meeting but should be done by 2:00. Will try to participate.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

I had the early horses as 1,2 & 5. The 1 had terrible TT and 3rd FR so I eliminated him. He did slow down but no one challenged him giving him the breather he needed to finish. This race was somewhat strangely run and considering his price someone bet him down.
Not saying it was fixed but strangely run. Just one of those races that was hard to get especially with this group coming up empty.

Don't let it live in your mind.
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

I had the early horses as 1,2 & 5. The 1 had terrible TT and 3rd FR so I eliminated him. He did slow down but no one challenged him giving him the breather he needed to finish. This race was somewhat strangely run and considering his price someone bet him down.
Not saying it was fixed but strangely run. Just one of those races that was hard to get especially with this group coming up empty.

Don't let it live in your mind.
Mitch44

I 100% doubt that it was fixed, Mitch. When #6 stumbled and unseated the rider, it took (IMO) a key component of the early pace right out of the race. Also, remember that jockeys and trainers read the Form too. Even though their PPs may scream "Early!", the connections may take back and hope that their horse can rate. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. The jockeys probably didn't even realize until after the fact that the horse unseated the rider. Unfortunately for them, timing off the gate is everything and it was too late to call an audible and make an early push.

Bottom line, if you had #6, it is a throwaway race. If you had #1, move to the head of the class, but be aware that this one may be a "bet against" next out if entered against similar runners.

[papajohn3times]

Tough loss I didn't see the start of the race! Well all said,I really enjoy these types of teaching posts More PLEASE! thanks Jeebs!
Papa

[papajohn3times]

Anyone with any ideas or thoughts about tomorrow's 3 big races for 3 year olds? Santa Anita looks tough but I have to root for Mo Town as I bet him at 24-1 on Vegas future book for the Derby!
Papa