KEE Track Model

[mick]

Just one day of racing but the results are typical for Keeneland. Even on turf, don't look for "S" types to win. If you're playing exactas, the place horses can come from farther back.

[Jeebs]

How do you determine your own run styles?

[mick]

Good question. I follow Tom Brohamer's examples in Chapter VIII, "The Track Profile" of Modern Pace Handicapping. He built his track models from the results charts without reference to a horse's prior races. Of course, the running style classifications vary with the individual. Feel free to disagree with mine.

My point is that closers seldom win races at Keeneland, regardless of the distance or surface. I've often wondered if its location might have something to do with it. The track is on a hill where the wind often blows and I suspect dries out the track.

It's a beautiful place and the hospitality is wonderful. Hope you have a chance to visit it someday.

[mick]

This comes from a post in the "Hat Check" section. (It may be something that RichieP and Mr. Bradshaw created, but I'm not sure.) I included it on page 4 of the Glossary that I assembled for Ted, which is at: www.rdss2.com/pubs/RDSS2.1.Glossary.pdf (http://www.rdss2.com/pubs/RDSS2.1.Glossary.pdf)

[MikeB]

Quote:
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="6" width="100%" border="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset"> Originally Posted by Jeebs http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=109458#post109458)
How do you determine your own run styles?
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
This is from "Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup" in the Hat Check forum.

Quote:
RUNNING STYLES

When handicapping a horse race, determine the running styles of each individual horse. These styles help to answer the important question, how is this race going to run? A race is a 'herd on the move' and all horses are characterized by one of the following four (4) designations; Early Horse, Early Presser, Presser and Sustained Presser.

There are three main running styles that figure in a horse race. In most instances these styles are determined by the position where the horse likes to run, rather than how fast the horse runs.

1. EARLY - Is a runner whose very best races are on or near the lead, or within a length while attempting to get the lead. A winning effort is accomplished only in this manner, and is usually a wire to wire effort.

2. PRESSER - Is a tactical runner that lays just off the pace, comes on in the second and third fractions. These horses may force the early horses to exert their energy to maintain the lead. These horse are usually up close to the early runners, but are not effected by the early pace.

A. Early Presser is the horse that takes dead aim at the leader but prefers someone else lead. They sit next to the leader and hope that at some point in the race the front runner tires so that they may go by. These horses do not lead and if they get the lead, will not win. Early pressers may put pressure on the early horse and, most likely, will never go by. In a herd environment, these horses are observed positioning themselves as close to the early horse or the ‘boss’ but never brave enough to lead or become ‘boss’.

B. Sustained Pressers are the most exciting of the running styles. The Sustained Presser likes to stay way behind and hopes that there is a fast pace and all the Early, Early Pressers and Pressers have expended all their energy and tire so that their stretch run gets them to the front in time. In a herd, these horses will be observed lagging behind and are fair game to whatever is chasing the herd. Sustained Pressers are the least reliable of the running styles and rarely win races.

3. LATE (Sustained) - Is a runner that comes on late in the race, often after the early runners, and pressers have exerted all their energy. They are habitually in the back of the pack, and win by catching the leaders in the third fraction (3F.)

[mick]

Thanks for the correction, Mike. Since Mr. Bradshaw created the concept, that should be in the Glossary.

[mick]

Back in Nashville, catching up on homework and here's what we have for Keeneland's Opening Weekend. Three Sustains won, two in Graded Stakes, and three SPs won, two of those in Maidens. Otherwise, it's all Es and Ps.

[For The Lead]

Hello Mick,

I gave some thought to how I wanted to write this and as I am writing it I, still, am not sure the best way to say what I want to say.

First of all, you have to applaud anyone who makes an effort to gain information, which you are clearly doing.
Next, making your efforts public for all those who might be interested deserves yet another pat on the back.
Having said that, let me move on to making my point.

Based on the work you have done to this point, it seems that it does not matter if the races are on turf or dirt (artificial).
It also suggests that it does not matter if the races were for males or females.
And it also suggests that distance does not matter.
So, no matter what, your conclusions are what they are.

Many years ago, at a Sartin seminar at Saratoga, I had the opportunity to speak, one on one, with Tom Brohamer. Although we talked about various things, one of the topics I wanted to cover was “models” and “profiles”.
His suggestion was that I should break these things down by surface, distance and sex. In fact, he took it a step further. Understand he was a west coast guy. Also understand that this was before the internet and on line betting. He said he would like to be able to play the east coast tracks. When I asked him the reason for that he said, because west coast racing was boring. Everything was pure vanilla. On the east coast there were so many more race conditions that would offer good betting opportunities. When I asked him how that would affect his models and profiles, he said he would break them down further to include the various race conditions. I took his suggestion and made it a part of my routine and I was never sorry that I did.

So, I am doing nothing more than offering you that which Tom Brohamer offered me.
Surface
Distance
Sex
Race condition

By the way, in keeping with the original question of this thread, I would PASS any track offering a short meet.
When taking the above into consideration, the reason becomes obvious.

Best of luck to you.

[mick]

For The Lead,

Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts and your knowledge with me. Through your many posts on this board, and I've read hundreds of them, I consider you a mentor.

I agree completely with you and Mr. Brohamer. A track profile/model should be subdivided and specific as to:
Surface
Distance
Sex
Race condition

Mine was hastily cobbled together to help (hopefully) other members who are not as familiar with Keeneland as I am. When every horse is a shipper and the trainers and jockeys are some of the very best, it's a difficult place to play. Knowing that the track almost always runs early, I was trying to simplify part of a complex equation.

I am and will be receptive to and appreciative of your thoughts, suggestions and comments. Thank you.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

This comes from a post in the "Hat Check" section. (It may be something that RichieP and Mr. Bradshaw created, but I'm not sure.) I included it on page 4 of the Glossary that I assembled for Ted, which is at: www.rdss2.com/pubs/RDSS2.1.Glossary.pdf (http://www.rdss2.com/pubs/RDSS2.1.Glossary.pdf)

Thank you for posting this. It is not only what I have been looking for, but it is downright specific.

[Lt1]

Nice work Mick. I depend more on a track model rather then the track profile. I'm aware of where winners come from at my tracks and use the RDSS segment screen and POH screen to deal with positions of horses etc.Hope you had fun at Keeland. Did you hook up with Don E?.
Tim

[mick]

Thank you for posting this. It is not only what I have been looking for, but it is downright specific.

You're welcome and I hope it helped you cash some tickets. Years ago, Dr. Bill Quirin said that the universal track bias is early speed. That is especially true at Keeneland.

[mick]

Nice work Mick. ... Hope you had fun at Keeneland. Did you hook up with Don E?.
Tim

Hey, Lieutenant Tim!

Don E and his beautiful lady Julia did come to Lexington and we had a great time. The racing was superb, we cashed some tickets (especially Julia), ate breakfast at the Track Kitchen, enjoyed some Kentucky Bourbon and Burgoo (actually, we enjoyed a lot of Kentucky Bourbon) and I took them to one of my very favorite restaurants, Distilled at the Gratz Park Inn. It was a grand time and I think they're planning a return trip.

I hope all is well at Valley Stream.

[Lt1]

That's great that you guys and gal had a wonderful time. All is well here in New Yawk [my best 33rd and 3rd accent lol]. Mitch and I had a pretty good BC weekend. Didn't even use the monkey.
Tim

[mick]

That's great that you guys and gal had a wonderful time. All is well here in New Yawk [my best 33rd and 3rd accent lol]. Mitch and I had a pretty good BC weekend. Didn't even use the monkey.
Tim

I talked with Mitch this morning. A "pretty good BC weekend" indeed. I understand the two of you are having trouble walking around because of all that cash in your pockets. ;)

[Lt1]

Just think of how we could of done if we broke out the monkey. Darn thing wanted too much in payment to get involved with us.
Tim

[Mitch44]

I'm trying to negotiate a new contract with him. A few perks here and there and he'll come around. Stubborn fellow but I have that monkey over a barrel. He's about to give in after I ate all his bananas Sat. with that DD win.


Considering the complexity of the races I was very pleased.
Mitch44