Phase 3 Charts

[Bill V.]

Charts from Pace Makes The Race

Early Pace Ratings Chart
Time of Second Call

43433
43434

LPR or Final Fraction Ratings
Time of the 3rd Fraction
43435
43436

[papajohn3times]

Thanks so much Bill I appreciate all the work you have done!
Papa John

[Rverge]

i copied the pages out of the book. AND Bill check the 7f ratings in my book it starts 34.5 100 the 36 is written over and is 35 all the through. just the 7f

[Mitch44]

My charts which are original from the book are the same as Bill's with 35=100 at 7F.
Mitch44

[Rverge]

My charts which are original from the book are the same as Bill's with 35=100 at 7F.
Mitch44
the numbers were the same but when i got the book about 10 years ago the 7f
# was changed and written over. mine reads for 100-34.5 and it is printed. but my value for 97 is 35.1 which is written over. the tenth #. and my value for
95 is 35. my chart seems to be off by a a couple numbers + or -. just for 7f

[Mitch44]

Perhaps who ever had that book only played one track and perhaps he found it to be a better adjustment etc. Each track has certain particularizes. Normally one would make these adjustments in your head and leave the chart alone

Then again I have the first edition and perhaps some of the co-authors of the 2nd edition insisted on it. The 2nd edition did have a couple different authors and even Sartin dropped out. So who knows the reason yours is different?

Myself I would use 35 and be consistent with all the other numbers in the original book that haven't changed. Till someone can prove the case or a reason for the change I'll remain with what has proven itself.

Ponder this: The owner of that book only played 7F races and changed it, went broke and sold the book. Your choice, good handicapping and I wish you great success Reverge.

BTW the difference between a 35 and a 35.5 at 7F is 2 & 3/4 lengths, not a small matter.
Mitch44

[Rverge]

Perhaps who ever had that book only played one track and perhaps he found it to be a better adjustment etc. Each track has certain particularizes. Normally one would make these adjustments in your head and leave the chart alone

Then again I have the first edition and perhaps some of the co-authors of the 2nd edition insisted on it. The 2nd edition did have a couple different authors and even Sartin dropped out. So who knows the reason yours is different?

Myself I would use 35 and be consistent with all the other numbers in the original book that haven't changed. Till someone can prove the case or a reason for the change I'll remain with what has proven itself.

Ponder this: The owner of that book only played 7F races and changed it, went broke and sold the book. Your choice, good handicapping and I wish you great success Reverge.

BTW the difference between a 35 and a 35.5 at 7F is 2 & 3/4 lengths, not a small matter.
Mitch44
my book was not 2nd hand. one of the authors put a message in the book to thank me. i have the book in storage and i for get the name. do think its 2nd ed.

[Rverge]

how many of yinz use the chart. i use the trackmaster 1.50 PP's with the adjusted times and BL lgths. to me not as much math :-)

[Bill V.]

Hi Chef

Mitch is correct. The tables/charts I made are exact copies of the ones in the original hardbound edition of Pace Makes The Race
Pages 38.39,40 and 41

I agree with Mitch. If you are seeing different numbers printed It's probably because somebody decided the numbers for 7- furlongs should be adjusted,
If somebody then changes them by hand, I would think that person played
at a track where there was some kind of anomaly at the 7-furlong distance.


Anyway, Its easy to check, what is going on at your track, Just record the
3rd fraction of a bunch of 7-furlong races with a 0 or close DTV
(in RDSS) and establish a norm, then do the same thing with another distance like 6 furlongs, and use the chart as a parallel time chart

In the chart above a 35 3rd fraction at 7 furlongs is equal a 22-second 3rd fraction at 6 furlongs 22 is really a fast third fraction so I can not imagine what horses are running 34.5 3rd fractions at 7 furlongs

On Saturday Parx ran 2 100,000 stakes races at 7 furlongs Race 7 and Race 8

I don't know the DTV but The winner of race 7 ran a 37.20 3rd fraction
The winner of race 8 ran a 37 3rd fraction

a 34.5 3rd fraction seems mighty fast to me

Good Skill
Bill

[Mitch44]

35.0 is something you would see only in a very high class Grade 1 type race. Their the only horses I ever see exceeding these 100 figures.

The example I used of 2 & 3/4 lengths was the actual beaten length for the difference for FPS..

In phase 1 that difference of .50 or 1/2 of 1/5th in TPR from those charts is 1/2 of a length. Now I ask you; how many races are won and lost by less than 1/2 of a length ? The point here is not to fool with the charts and use a consistent approach for beaten lengths which is what they are designed to do.

Reverge I wish you much success with them.
Mitch44

Wish you much success with them

[DontSayDont]

Mitch is correct. The tables/charts I made are exact copies of the ones in the original hardbound edition of Pace Makes The Race
Pages 38.39,40 and 41

Reverge information comes from The New PMTR by Hambleton and Schmidt.

There are various differences in the two charts such as:
6.5f original 28.4 New 28.6
7.0f original 35.0 New 35.5 hand written over 34.5 (misprint? - most likely)
7.5f original 41.6 New 41.0
1M.70 original 27.0 New 26.8
8.5f original 29.4 New 29.3
9.0f original 36.2 New 35.7
9.5f original 43.2 New 42.3

These are the newer 100 point listings from the New PMTR book (pg.'s 22-23). I hope I copied Bill V's numbers correctly, if not I apologize in advance.

I never worked with them as I was extremely disappointed after receiving the book and finding out that chapters from the original book had been left out in the New edition. I was looking forward to reading about the fulcrum method and more on the Sartin methodology but those were some of the chapters excluded. I really didn't want to pay the price of the original book and give more money to the authors when I felt disappointed about the updated version.

Ray

[Mitch44]

DontSayDont:

Thanks for your clarification. By tweaking or changing the numbers slightly they can claim its their own, an author thing as I suspected. I would use the original as Bill V. posted.

Don't be disparaged DontSayDont by not having the original book because everything in there is contained in other Sartin writings elsewhere. Additionally RDSS Has all this contained in it and it's much better improved plus all the later and much newer concepts.
Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

For the record, RDSS uses the same TPR charts as did Validator (and Speculator) - which are the same as published in the Original Edition of Pace Makes the Race.

With the following exceptions for LPR: (Note: LPR or Final Fraction in Sprints is the portion of the race between the 4f Second Call time and the Final Time; and in Routes the portion of the race between the 6f time and the Final Time.)

Distance/100 Rating
4.5 ........ 6 (added)
5.0 ........ 9 (added)
8.2 ........ 25 (1 mile 40 yds) compares to 25.2 tenths
10.0 ...... 50 (for final 4f, compares to 24 for final 2f)
10.5 ...... 56 (added)
11.0 ...... 60 (added)
11.5 ...... 63 (added)
12.0 ...... 70 (added)

(Note: pace measured by Second Call time has very little impact on the very short and marathon added distances above).

RDSS does NOT use RAW times - it uses the Adjusted Times found on the Adjusted screen - for the EPR and LPR calculations (and ALL other calculations and factors). All raw distances and surfaces are projected to today's distance and surface. The Daily Track Variant is added according to the settings and constraints in your Configure Settings. The Inter-Track Variant is added (equalizing the inherent speed of different tracks/surfaces to each other) - ALWAYS. If a paceline comes from the same track, surface and distance as today's race - it is still adjusted to a hypothetical norm (aka 'Sartin Downs'). Effectively, from the point of view of the various velocities, ratings, factors and Line Scores in RDSS (i.e. everything beyond the raw Original screen) - the race is being run at Sartin Downs, not at BEL or PRX or SA or GP or whatever is today's actual track. :eek:

Then, from the resulting adjusted Second Call and Final times for the pace of the race - minus the horse's beaten lengths at a value of 2 tenths seconds (.20) per length -- the EPR and LPR ratings are calculated according to the original PMTR Charts (Pages 38-42 1st Edition) plus the above additions/changes.

One can always equivocate - or hold an alternate opinion - over the correctness of the adjustment system (distance projections, surface eqalizations, DTV and ITV adjustments) or situationally use different DTV settings by surface or distance - but it IS consistent, which is what we ask of a 'systematic' approach to creating ratings. I always feel that it's up to us to apply all 'local knowledge' or long-term observation about any output of these and other formulas which result in wonky projections and ratings.

Even so - the TPR Ratings (for some) are but 3/7ths of the input into the BLBL rating (3 out of 7 factors), and deceleration further modifies BL to create VDC (and VDC is 1/5th of the input into Rx, etc).

Plus - checking multiple lines per horse to confirm whether a given paceline's ratings are reproducible today given the likely pace setup, plus assessing a horse's form cycle and competitive placement in today's race, plus assessing the wisdom of a bet given the market odds from among the Top 4 Contenders - all serve to smooth out the possible inaccuracies of EPR/LPR calculations from Adjusted Times. IMO.

Also just to be clear - TrackMaster/Equibase does NOT supply EPR or LPR ratings. They only supply raw running times, beaten lengths, Daily Track variants and Inter Track variants. RDSS does ALL the rest using these raw inputs.

Cheers,

Ted

[Rverge]

Reverge information comes from The New PMTR by Hambleton and Schmidt.

There are various differences in the two charts such as:
6.5f original 28.4 New 28.6
7.0f original 35.0 New 35.5 hand written over 34.5 (misprint? - most likely)
7.5f original 41.6 New 41.0
1M.70 original 27.0 New 26.8
8.5f original 29.4 New 29.3
9.0f original 36.2 New 35.7
9.5f original 43.2 New 42.3

These are the newer 100 point listings from the New PMTR book (pg.'s 22-23). I hope I copied Bill V's numbers correctly, if not I apologize in advance.

I never worked with them as I was extremely disappointed after receiving the book and finding out that chapters from the original book had been left out in the New edition. I was looking forward to reading about the fulcrum method and more on the Sartin methodology but those were some of the chapters excluded. I really didn't want to pay the price of the original book and give more money to the authors when I felt disappointed about the updated version.

Ray

then i dont know what edtion my book is then cause i have 6.5 28,4 7f 34.5 7.5f 41.0 now my 1m 70 is 100 26.8 99 is 27 the next 3 must b new. so ok, what ever version i have is close. thanks

[Rverge]

OBTW" my numbers are in "10's" not "5ths" eg 5.5 f 15.6 100, posted chart by bill 15.3 100 and it continues. ok no big deal...:cool:

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

Jeebs discovered this error, I have no answer to why the ratings were sped up in a race with a -10 DTV and no ITV

Mitch and I worked on this in a long phone conversation and neither of us could come to a better conclusion that somebody, ( we assumed Trackmaster) simply made a mistake.

After reading your post Now I'm convinced for sure Line 1 for horse Swell
Is simply being rated incorrectly

would you agree? I like what you wrote, Actually, I was just reading
In the original PMTR about not putting everything on just 1 line,
Tom Brohamer suggest avoiding horses with just one line that rates
amongst the better horses lines, Hambelton says to look for a verifying line

Anyway it still is troubling to see an error like line 1 for Swell

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=109904&postcount=8

[Ted Craven]

Hi Ted


After reading your post Now I'm convinced for sure Line 1 for horse Swell
Is simply being rated incorrectly

would you agree?

Anyway it still is troubling to see an error like line 1 for Swell

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=109904&postcount=8

Bill, I'll study the adjustments made and explain them. I'll get back on this.

Ted

[Bill V.]

Thanks Ted

You know I depend on Phase 1 I know RDSS has so many great tools
To me, it all starts with phase 1 and VDC

Good Skill
Bill

[MikeB]

Hi Chef

Mitch is correct. The tables/charts I made are exact copies of the ones in the original hardbound edition of Pace Makes The Race
Pages 38.39,40 and 41



I have the 2nd edition, which shows only Hambleton and Schmidt as authors.

The final fraction ratings are given in tenths of a second. For ratings 100-96, the 7F times are 35.5, 35.7, 35.9, 36.1, 36.3. This progression continues, adding 2/10 of a second for each 1 point drop in rating.

The 6.5F rating of 100 is shown as 28 3/5 in the OP, and as 28 4/10 in my book. 7.5F here is 41 3/5, 41 in mine.

Other differences for the 100 rating are 25 2/10 for 1m40, 26 8/10 for 1m70, 29 3/10 for 8.5F, 35 7/10 for 9F, and 42 3/10 for 9.5F.

[MikeB]

then i dont know what edtion my book is then cause i have 6.5 28,4 7f 34.5 7.5f 41.0 now my 1m 70 is 100 26.8 99 is 27 the next 3 must b new. so ok, what ever version i have is close. thanks

The first edition shows Hambleton, Schmidt, Pizzolla, and Sartin as authors on the cover. The second edition shows just Hambleton and Schmidt.

[Houndog]

The first edition shows Hambleton, Schmidt, Pizzolla, and Sartin as authors on the cover. The second edition shows just Hambleton and Schmidt.

The original hardbound book would be somewhat of a collectors item.

[The Pook]

The original hardbound book would be somewhat of a collectors item.

I wonder if the original hardbound book signed by both Howard Sartin and Tom Brohamer has any monetary value?

Pook

[MikeB]

I wonder if the original hardbound book signed by both Howard Sartin and Tom Brohamer has any monetary value?

Pook

I would think the market would be very limited. There are used copies of the hardbound listed on Amazon Marketplace in the $30-$50 range, and a couple of new copies around $170. No way of telling how long they may have been there without selling.