Preakness Wrap-Up

[omar]

While I was writing my blog on Friday i'm listening to the talking heads on TVG say they just got hit with a monsoon and i'm thinking oh no not again, and then they said the track will be fast by the time the race goes off and how much it will favor the 4 horse and if your a new customer we'll give you 10-1 on him up to a $10 win bet!!!!!
Handicapper's, that's just a lot of noise.You should just mute the sound and watch the race on your computer and you'll be better off. All I wanted to do was write my blog and watch the filly race and instead they gave me a big headache and now i'm here to return the favor.
Thank you TVG for keeping the horse odds on and convincing your audience that they have the keys to the lock in the race. Thank you first time bettors and recreational bettors for taking their advice on the 4 horse. And kudos to NBC for doing the same besides why should TVG get all the credit for handing the crown to the 4 before the race. Thank you Todd Pletcher for exposing your tell.Thank you all you handicappers who don't understand the form factor or disregard it entirely. Thank you John Velazquez for letting us know in an interview that you intend to gun your horse to the lead if the 10 doesn't go for it. Thank you for those that don't understand par times or disregard it entirely and don't understand the difference between Churchill and Pimlico. Had this race been run at Churchill the times would have been at least a full second faster at all the calls- yes they were motoring around the track. Thank you Chad Brown for taking a chance on a lightly raced colt and saving Practical Joke for another day. I really had no information numbers wise on him with 2 routes, except that he likes to lay off the early pace and that's the way the dirt routes were playing. I wasn't a big fan of the 2 horse but i'm smart enough to know how to hold my nose and use him in my exotic bets and walk away with the triple and exacta bets. And thank you Jimmy Fallon for coming up with the idea of thank you notes. Until next weekend when we will embark on our quest for more prices. By the way, I only played the last 3 races at Belmont on Sunday and HIT ALL 3!!! Even money, 32.80 and 41.80(FTS).They were right in my wheelhouse. If you don't understand those races let me know and i will post it. Omar the "O" Man.

[raceman5]

For one would like to see you post them Omar.


Bob

[rmath]

I would like to see your work up of those 3 Belmont races along with your reasoning for the pacelines you used.
Thank you in advance

rmath

[ssag0]

First time starter races? What's your angle?

[Bill V.]

Looking forward to your posts on the nice wins

"O" man

Good Skill
Bill aka Binder

P.S
Hey Omar , Do you still keep in touch with Grey Haired John
from back in the Meadowlands clubhouse days ,

Thanks

[omar]

Bel R9 Md 40000
The most important factor in maiden races is board action. In other words bet downs from their M/L. You have to look early because sometimes the board can change in a hurry. In this race the #'s 1-2-5-9 all opened below their M/L. The 2 was the first to jump above his m/l. What i found interesting was the 11 opening at 7/2, dipping to 3-1 and for 1 flash dipped to 5/2 before going back up to 3-1, not even lukewarm and that was the m/l favorite. Within the last couple of minutes the 4 went down to 2-1 and i knew then he was the horse to beat because the 11 never hit 2-1. the 5 went down to 6-1 from 7-1 the whole time, while the 9 went from 7 to 13-1. But the 1 stayed at 12-1 until the last flash where he bumped up to 19-1. This horse was bet the whole time and the 8 horse dropped to 5-1 at the end. So i knew the 4 was dangerous, maybe the 8 off the l/o and the 1.
In addition to the board action you have to look at # furloughs worked or raced within the last 17 days. The ratio with maidens 1 furlough per day. Well none of them really have it but let's look:
#1 2 FTS 4f works 5/8 & 5/15. That comes to 8f in 7 days;
#2 raced 7f on 5/5, no works since;
#3 raced 4/23 one 4f on 5/14;
#4 A Wesley Ward FTS 5f on 5/7 and 5f on 5/15 both at Kee, that's 10f in 8 days;
#5 raced 8.5f on 5/4, no works since (15) days;
# 6 hasn't raced since 3/24 and only one 4f work on 5/14. To me that's not enough, should have had at least a 3f work with the other in a 7 day period;
#7 Another FTS 4f on 5/8, 3f on 5/16 7f in 8 days, acceptable BUT GOT NO BOARD ACTION WHATSOEVER;
#8 hasn't raced since Dec. but that's ok because i ignore layoffs on turf. 4f on 5/7 and 4f on 5/15 is 8f in 8 days within the last 17 day period JUST ACCEPT HIS CURRENT FORM' RIGHT?;
#9 raced 7f on 5/5 no works since' works out to 7f in 14 days or 1/2f per day NO GOOD;
# 10 last raced in feb.(again i don't care) worked 4f on 5/4 and 4f on 5/13 is 8f in 9 days, again acceptable but again no board action!;
# 11 raced on 4/14 but only one work 4f on 5/4 at MTH - no good
So what we're left with are the 1, 4 and 8 on current form and these are the horses that took action on the board too- WHAT A SURPRISE, SOMEBODY MUST BE PAYING ATTENTION. RIGHT? Everything else in these maiden races is just noise. If you want noise turn on TVG. they will never mention these 2 factors like i went over them here cause if they did i might just fall outta bed. I'm gonna post this in the general discussion and after an hour or two, i have to rest my knees, i will go over the 8th race at Bel. in the general discussion section. Later, Omar.

[omar]

he never emails me so i haven't bothered him since last year. i'm going to post my take on the 8th race later after i rest my knees for a while. But just for you i'm going to email him for the Belmont Stakes but guaranteed whoever i come up with he's gonna toss him right out. talk to later.

[Bill V.]

Thanks "0" man. Hey put Baffalator in the subject box of the email , that was what John called Validator/ Speculator back in the day
Maybe he will reply to some fun times we had

[omar]

check the general discussion section. i already posted the 9th race. i always work backwards, next up the 8th and then the 7th. i stand by the computer because i have a bad hip, sitting and getting up is hard and so my knees stiffen up after a while so it takes time for me to post. hey i'm 67 and i'm falling apart and i been this way since 2006.

[dlivery]

Omar stay the course with all of your tools :1:
Go get'm