omar
05-22-2017, 04:10 PM
Bel R9 Md 40000
The most important factor in maiden races is board action. In other words bet downs from their M/L. You have to look early because sometimes the board can change in a hurry. In this race the #'s 1-2-5-9 all opened below their M/L. The 2 was the first to jump above his m/l. What i found interesting was the 11 opening at 7/2, dipping to 3-1 and for 1 flash dipped to 5/2 before going back up to 3-1, not even lukewarm and that was the m/l favorite. Within the last couple of minutes the 4 went down to 2-1 and i knew then he was the horse to beat because the 11 never hit 2-1. the 5 went down to 6-1 from 7-1 the whole time, while the 9 went from 7 to 13-1. But the 1 stayed at 12-1 until the last flash where he bumped up to 19-1. This horse was bet the whole time and the 8 horse dropped to 5-1 at the end. So i knew the 4 was dangerous, maybe the 8 off the l/o and the 1.
In addition to the board action you have to look at # furloughs worked or raced within the last 17 days. The ratio with maidens 1 furlough per day. Well none of them really have it but let's look:
#1 2 FTS 4f works 5/8 & 5/15. That comes to 8f in 7 days;
#2 raced 7f on 5/5, no works since;
#3 raced 4/23 one 4f on 5/14;
#4 A Wesley Ward FTS 5f on 5/7 and 5f on 5/15 both at Kee, that's 10f in 8 days;
#5 raced 8.5f on 5/4, no works since (15) days;
# 6 hasn't raced since 3/24 and only one 4f work on 5/14. To me that's not enough, should have had at least a 3f work with the other in a 7 day period;
#7 Another FTS 4f on 5/8, 3f on 5/16 7f in 8 days, acceptable BUT GOT NO BOARD ACTION WHATSOEVER;
#8 hasn't raced since Dec. but that's ok because i ignore layoffs on turf. 4f on 5/7 and 4f on 5/15 is 8f in 8 days within the last 17 day period JUST ACCEPT HIS CURRENT FORM' RIGHT?;
#9 raced 7f on 5/5 no works since' works out to 7f in 14 days or 1/2f per day NO GOOD;
# 10 last raced in feb.(again i don't care) worked 4f on 5/4 and 4f on 5/13 is 8f in 9 days, again acceptable but again no board action!;
# 11 raced on 4/14 but only one work 4f on 5/4 at MTH - no good
So what we're left with are the 1, 4 and 8 on current form and these are the horses that took action on the board too- WHAT A SURPRISE, SOMEBODY MUST BE PAYING ATTENTION. RIGHT? Everything else in these maiden races is just noise. If you want noise turn on TVG. they will never mention these 2 factors like i went over them here cause if they did i might just fall outta bed. I'm gonna post this in the general discussion and after an hour or two, i have to rest my knees, i will go over the 8th race at Bel. in the general discussion section. Later, Omar. They ran 1-4-8 #1 paid $41.80
The most important factor in maiden races is board action. In other words bet downs from their M/L. You have to look early because sometimes the board can change in a hurry. In this race the #'s 1-2-5-9 all opened below their M/L. The 2 was the first to jump above his m/l. What i found interesting was the 11 opening at 7/2, dipping to 3-1 and for 1 flash dipped to 5/2 before going back up to 3-1, not even lukewarm and that was the m/l favorite. Within the last couple of minutes the 4 went down to 2-1 and i knew then he was the horse to beat because the 11 never hit 2-1. the 5 went down to 6-1 from 7-1 the whole time, while the 9 went from 7 to 13-1. But the 1 stayed at 12-1 until the last flash where he bumped up to 19-1. This horse was bet the whole time and the 8 horse dropped to 5-1 at the end. So i knew the 4 was dangerous, maybe the 8 off the l/o and the 1.
In addition to the board action you have to look at # furloughs worked or raced within the last 17 days. The ratio with maidens 1 furlough per day. Well none of them really have it but let's look:
#1 2 FTS 4f works 5/8 & 5/15. That comes to 8f in 7 days;
#2 raced 7f on 5/5, no works since;
#3 raced 4/23 one 4f on 5/14;
#4 A Wesley Ward FTS 5f on 5/7 and 5f on 5/15 both at Kee, that's 10f in 8 days;
#5 raced 8.5f on 5/4, no works since (15) days;
# 6 hasn't raced since 3/24 and only one 4f work on 5/14. To me that's not enough, should have had at least a 3f work with the other in a 7 day period;
#7 Another FTS 4f on 5/8, 3f on 5/16 7f in 8 days, acceptable BUT GOT NO BOARD ACTION WHATSOEVER;
#8 hasn't raced since Dec. but that's ok because i ignore layoffs on turf. 4f on 5/7 and 4f on 5/15 is 8f in 8 days within the last 17 day period JUST ACCEPT HIS CURRENT FORM' RIGHT?;
#9 raced 7f on 5/5 no works since' works out to 7f in 14 days or 1/2f per day NO GOOD;
# 10 last raced in feb.(again i don't care) worked 4f on 5/4 and 4f on 5/13 is 8f in 9 days, again acceptable but again no board action!;
# 11 raced on 4/14 but only one work 4f on 5/4 at MTH - no good
So what we're left with are the 1, 4 and 8 on current form and these are the horses that took action on the board too- WHAT A SURPRISE, SOMEBODY MUST BE PAYING ATTENTION. RIGHT? Everything else in these maiden races is just noise. If you want noise turn on TVG. they will never mention these 2 factors like i went over them here cause if they did i might just fall outta bed. I'm gonna post this in the general discussion and after an hour or two, i have to rest my knees, i will go over the 8th race at Bel. in the general discussion section. Later, Omar. They ran 1-4-8 #1 paid $41.80