omar
05-23-2017, 11:14 AM
#1 shows 3 2nd's and one win in last 5 races on grass, meaning he has 1 win and 3 2nd's in his other 15 grass starts, so we just don't know how he fares after a layoff. If i treat him as a FTS then he shows that 1/2f per day w/o frequency: 4f in last 8 days and 14f in last 28 days.ok, but he got beat by the #5 last 7/8 and seems to be outclassed here. I used his 9/14 race because it was on today's inner turf;
#2 shows a good effort off a l/o and in first start. shows 5f on 5/3 & 5/12- better than 1f per day in 9 days and 2/3f in last 16 days. Accept current form and used 5/21/16 race to rate;
#3 can win off a l/o but after an extended l/o showed zilch in last 2 starts and does not show that 1/2f per day frequency. don't like him but used his 8/8/15 race to rate him;
#4 good effort in first lifetime start and shows 15f in last 19 days. Accept current form and used his 9/10/16 race to rate;
#5 good effort on 4/30/16 after a l/o, shows 14f in last 20 days last one a bullet. Accept current form and used 5/22/16 race to rate him - same dist/surface;
#6 only 3 starts. horses with fewer than 4-5 starts pose a problem and this is a 3 yo that can really bounce up., so i used his first and last start to get a better read on him;
#7 another l/o horse,poor race in first start. in fact got buried by the #6 by 6 lengths. NOT TODAY; but used his 7/3/16 race to rate him;
#8 NOT A L/O HORSE BUT NOT AN ALW HORSE EITHER . USE LAST RACE TO RATE AND REMEMBER THE ELEVATOR ONLY GOES ONE WAY IN HORSE RACING!
So i have the 2-4-5-6 and with my #'s: PBS #2=106,#6=103 gap to the #5=99, while the top PPF horse was the #4=+5. In Neutral races in sprints i favor PBS horses.
They ran 6-2-4-5 #6 $4.20 2Ex= $17.20, 2Tri= $73.50. Top 2 PBS horses were underlays and so was the #4. #5 was a slight overlay but clearly wasn't the choice here.
SO NOW YOU KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH LAYOFFS AND MAIDENS AND YOU "SHOULD" HIT EVERY RACE NEXT WEEK. RIGHT.
LATER. OMAR
#2 shows a good effort off a l/o and in first start. shows 5f on 5/3 & 5/12- better than 1f per day in 9 days and 2/3f in last 16 days. Accept current form and used 5/21/16 race to rate;
#3 can win off a l/o but after an extended l/o showed zilch in last 2 starts and does not show that 1/2f per day frequency. don't like him but used his 8/8/15 race to rate him;
#4 good effort in first lifetime start and shows 15f in last 19 days. Accept current form and used his 9/10/16 race to rate;
#5 good effort on 4/30/16 after a l/o, shows 14f in last 20 days last one a bullet. Accept current form and used 5/22/16 race to rate him - same dist/surface;
#6 only 3 starts. horses with fewer than 4-5 starts pose a problem and this is a 3 yo that can really bounce up., so i used his first and last start to get a better read on him;
#7 another l/o horse,poor race in first start. in fact got buried by the #6 by 6 lengths. NOT TODAY; but used his 7/3/16 race to rate him;
#8 NOT A L/O HORSE BUT NOT AN ALW HORSE EITHER . USE LAST RACE TO RATE AND REMEMBER THE ELEVATOR ONLY GOES ONE WAY IN HORSE RACING!
So i have the 2-4-5-6 and with my #'s: PBS #2=106,#6=103 gap to the #5=99, while the top PPF horse was the #4=+5. In Neutral races in sprints i favor PBS horses.
They ran 6-2-4-5 #6 $4.20 2Ex= $17.20, 2Tri= $73.50. Top 2 PBS horses were underlays and so was the #4. #5 was a slight overlay but clearly wasn't the choice here.
SO NOW YOU KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH LAYOFFS AND MAIDENS AND YOU "SHOULD" HIT EVERY RACE NEXT WEEK. RIGHT.
LATER. OMAR