Adjusted Lines

[Lsuchadk]

Quick question all. I'm looking at the 1st race at FL today, and noticing that the last race of the 5 horse was at Penn. Also, the 3 horse is shipping from Aquaduct.

My question is this, once I have matched all my horses, I look at the adjusted line to pull out the some obvious non contenders. When calculating track equalizations into the the times, do I subtract/add from the final adjusted time or the original? I guess my question is, is RDSS doing this adjustment in the adjustment or is that up to me?

Thanks for the help.

Chad

[Lsuchadk]

Not understanding the heavy betting on the 1 horse. 5 is my horse from the start and am surprised with the odds he is getting. I probably shouldn't touch this one because they are so close, but good odds I'm going to give it a shot.

Going with the 5 horse to win.

Chad

[Bill S]

RDSS does the adjustments for you. If you look at the adjusted tab you'll see the times are different from their raw counterparts. They have all been adjusted to todays distance. They also take in account the daily track variant and the inter-track variant.

[Lsuchadk]

Thanks Bill. As usual, I should have stayed away from that race.

Chad

[Lsuchadk]

What criteria do you guys use to tell yourself to stay away from a race? Should it be such a huge difference that it's so obvious who the main contender is? I am struggling on this part. I can get down to the top 4, but I am missing on the winners. I am trying to use "the matchup" technique and feel like I am doing a decent job of eliminating the ones that can't compete. However, when it comes to picking the winner out of those 4 I am missing a lot. Any advice out there to help me out?

Chad

[Bill S]

A good place to start for learning how to pass races is FollowUp issue #74, page 15, and FollowUp issue #75, page 32.

From Howard Sartin himself....

[papajohn3times]

Hi Bill
I am fairly new here also but studied and have been quite successful with Dr. Sartin's work since the mid 1980's If you read some of my post's,I was away for over 10 years and then decided to try it again.My track Detroit Race Course closed and the only way I could bet was to make a long trip over to Canada to play just Woodbine and the major California tracks.
I have asked and been answered by a great group of people on this site
Here is my take on your question:
When using the older Sartin programs,you had to enter lines by hand and in many instances,it was up to you to alter whatever times you thought should be adjusted BIG MISTAKE! I did ok because I was just playing Deroit and Tom Brohamer at a seminar in Las Vegas helped me create a Detroit only adjustment chart-it worked great!
I now play just the major NY tracks,Gulstream(in the winter along with Oaklawn) some Parx and my favorite track Woodbine
if you notice,non except for maybe Parx are major tracks. I have never played Finger Lakes or even the cheap Ohio tracks--why should I deal with low handle,cheap races and small fields? If you're stuck with just Finger Lakes,well you're like I was at Detroit.
I have 2 internet accounts that I use exclusively to bet with. I never take but maybe 10.00 to the betting center here,Hazel Park
If you are sticking with FL,one thing that I always remember is from Ted Craven when I was just getting re-started HORSES RUN JUST FAST ENOUGH TO WIN I have tied to match-up and for me,except for the basics from Jimmy Bradshaw ans Ritchie P. I tend to look at the top 5 TPR numbers and the top 3 EP and LP ratings from the LAST RACE ONLY! as advocated by Bill V. it works! not all the time,nothing does all the time!
I also then look at TOTAL ENERGY POR and then ALWAYS note the progression or regression of THE PERCEPTOR rankings for my contenders.
IMO if you follow along with guy's like Mitch 44 Ltt.Bill V, and FOR THE LEAD,I think they can guide you a lot better than I can
Personally I have found the top 2 V/DC horses to be a dynamite readout,that's just for me,perhaps it's not viable for you
I wish you success and don't want to interfere,but the folks on this sight,especially Ted Craven has helped me in ways I could have never returned to for me,very sucessful wagercapping!
Papa John

[Bill S]

Thanks Papa John. That was actually Chad's (Lsuchqadk)'s question but I kind of do the same as you. Pick lines based on preceptor and then further eliminate by total energy rankings. That works pretty good. TE is a powerful factor. Progression and regression of the preceptor is also a very good tool for contender and paceline selection.

Actually what helped me a lot was when Mitch44 was talking about visual vs energy running style. There are pacelines that visually look like crap, but when you look at them from an energy perspective they are not that bad. I have selected lines like that with surprisingly good results. Actually I think my paceline selection has become better since looking at it like that. I used to see a lot of winners come from down in BL/BL tiers 3 and 4, but since doing it this way I'm seeing more of them up in tiers 1 and 2 now.

[Mitch44]

Visual perception of either ESP or what's a good line to pick isn't as good as the computer driven tools such as % Med. and or picking a good line. Its not the beaten lengths or positions in a line that's important, its how it handles it. I.e. a horse maintains 5th position and 5 lengths beaten but the 2nd Fr was better than the first. Well Preceptor picks that up etc. Some matchers look for a move, where parts of the race is underlined which is good but there are many races or lines that don't show that but their the correct line to be used.

Bottom line is those that use the computer will out perform anyone using the visual.( to determine a horses ESP or which is the correct line. to be used) Unless of course your name is Jim Bradshaw, a very rare exception. Even Sartin couldn't match Bradshaw and used the computer and I never heard Bradshaw tell anyone to give up the computer and in fact he just told them the opposite.
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

I tend to look at the top 5 TPR numbers and the top 3 EP and LP ratings from the LAST RACE ONLY! as advocated by Bill V. it works! not all the time, nothing does all the time!

Hello Papa John

Just to be clear,

I look at every horse's last pace line and rate those lines.
This is just a preliminary step. The winner of the race almost always comes from the top 5 TPR line 1 pacelines, but my work does not end here.

Once I have the ratings for every horse, I go back and see if the last paceline may not be representative of today's race.
I then look at the most recent lines. Then I decide if the last line warrants
me to stay with the line or move down to a different pace line.
Once I have picked lines for my true contenders. I make sure to include the top 3 EP and LP rated horses, These horses usually already have the top 5 TPR's

Looking at the last line and taking the top 5 TPR"s is not how I work races
It's a recommended step in the book Pace Makes The Race (Original version)

Bill

[papajohn3times]

Hi Bill
I guess I wrote that wrong! I NEVER USE JUST THE LAST LINE-NEVER! That's just my FIRST STEP as you advocated then I do a visual match-up,look at total energy,percepter and chose a line based on what I think the pace will be- I guess I am going thru all the right steps as my handicapping has been really on lately,since I included all your's and Mitch 44's teaching'
With my grand daughter's final day's at elementary school(her school district includes 6th grade as Jr. High and that totally depress's me!) so I have put racing on the back burner until June 23rd,when I will again be in full swing(mostly weekend's and a little weekly when I get a chance)
I really think that if you don't pick and chose races and be CONSISTENT in your handicapping,tweaking it here and there,constantly learning and researching before hand new ideas and concepts You are making thing's really almost impossible to overcome.
I could go on and on with stories of all the big mouths and know it all's at the betting center here,Hazel Park. I should tape what clever and ALWAYS wrong and stupid ideas and hosey "facts" they come up with!
Later guys!
p.s Kinda bummed that Classic Empire was scratched,I would have bet against what I considered a over worked horse!
Papa John

[Bill S]

The preceptor is a great tool. It strips away the wind and smoke and lets you see the underlaying fire. You can see how big or how small that fire is, or if it's getting hotter or cooling off. It lets you see what distance/surface the horse should be running at, and it allows you to see if the horse is improving or declining. It can probably tell you other things too I'm not aware of yet.

Jim Bradshaw said you can win most of your races if you pick the appropriate pace lines. The preceptor is going to go a long way in helping you achieve that.

[Lsuchadk]

Ok guys I keep reading and reading and now am wondering if I have confused myself. My winsare dropping off and I'm feeling lost atm. Here is what I am doing. Hoping for some advice.

I first assemble the races by best preceptor. I then go in and choose lines that I think best reflect the race. I then go in and start on the matchup. I find the lead horse and use its first call pace, the next best second call, etc. At this point I now have my projected pace and now go back in and try to match the horses with that pace by choosing the most appropriate line for the projected pace. Here is my question. Can I still use the TPR elimination technique that Bill talks about or have I now moved away from what the program was designed for by setting up the matchup based pace lines for all?

Thanks for the help.

Chad

[Bill V.]

hi Chad
Sorry for the delay, I've been working on a personal project, One that I hope we will all enjoy.

I suggest you continue to do what you're doing, You might be mixing too many ingredients for your stew.

Pick your pacelines and eliminate to your contenders the way the program is designed for. Folks like Mitch and Tim LT1 and Ted and Rmath do excellent work You should read their work.


The way I work races is based on the book Pace Makes The Race
It is a very simple basic method.
I get the winner in my top 5 contenders just about every race.
That would be great if I bet 5 horses to win :)
Since I do not do that I need other methods to select the winner of these 5
contenders

That is where I use the match up basics, Can one of the early horses
go wire to wire or will a presser overtake the early horse(s)
or will a late horse overtake everybody?
This is where I analyze the early late difference sticks and the most important readout VDC.

so I kind of do what you do but I get to the final place using a different path

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill S]

Chad,
I think the same thing Bill V. said, your taking on too much to start and suffering information overload. I did the same thing initially.....

I'd suggest you start by studying RDSS, learn what it's readouts mean and understand what the 10 analyst panels are telling you and how each one feeds information to the next. Ted has a video up that explains that. These are your tools and a craftsman must understand how to use his tools.

Next practice paceline selection. I use the best of last three comparable via the perceptor. But don't do it blindly. Use common sense. Howard Sartin wrote a lot about it.

There is a thread here Jeebs started called "Handicapping Blind - Using PoH/TPR/Primary screens". Go read that thread, especially the stuff that Mitch44 wrote in it about paceline selection and energy vs visual running style.

and finally start keeping records of what factors are best for the track you play broken down by surface and distance. I find that even though we have all these factors Dr. Sartin gave us, not all of them work equally for a particular track/distance/surface. I work during the day so I play night tracks, primarily Penn National. What I see from my records are that there is a subset of factors that are highly predictive for each distance and surface. Like for 6f dirt right now at Penn the most predictive I'm seeing is TE, FW, VDC, and TS. Approx 75 percent of the horses that rate in the top 2 of these factors in BL/BL win at this distance. Now I move over to 1 mile 70 and the top factors change to EPR, CPR, FX, and TS. They change based on distance and surface. I don't know why but they do. I track a total of 14 factors per race, but a subset of 3 or 4 rise to the top. The only way your going to find this out is to keep records.

You can read in the follow up a lot where Dr Sartin used to complain about how people always asked him what are the best factors to watch. His answer was always the same. . . . "What your records tell you they are for your track...."

Anyway keep it simple at first and the other stuff will come in time.

[Bill S]

Chad,
I forgot one thing in my last post. Learn all you can about what Dr Sartin calls wagercapping.

[Lsuchadk]

Thanks for the info guys. Spotted some trends at Evangeline tonight and made some good choices.

Chad