FTL Paceline selection ?

[shoeless]

FTL

In order what are the 5 most important things you do
when you are picking pace lines

Jeff

[Jeebs]

FTL

In order what are the 5 most important things you do
when you are picking pace lines

Jeff

Jeff, here is an excerpt from a PM that FTL sent me several months ago. This should shed light on your question. Good luck!

I suggest you change the way you approach a race to the following.
1 – if you want to take my advice, throw out any horse that has not run in the last 90 days. Those horses win 5% or less of the races.
Then, throw out any horse with a ML of 20/1 or greater. Again, those horses win 5% or less of the races.
2 – read the conditions
3 – select a line for each horse that has a qualifying race, i.e.
a – last line is a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd (a “+” race) and is the same distance, surface or
b – last line the horse was 1st or close 2nd at the first and/or second call (a “(+)” race) even if it faded in the stretch and is the same distance, surface
c - last line the horse made up lengths between first call and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call (a “(+)” race) even if it faded in the stretch and is the same distance, surface
In its’ last race, if a horse ran a “0” race and the race was the same distance, surface and similar class level and there was no “valid” reason for the bad effort, eliminate the horse from further consideration. A “valid” reason would be “trouble or off track”.
If in its’ last race the horse ran the wrong distance, wrong surface, higher class level, had trouble or on an OFF track, go back to the next line and follow the same guidelines.
In my own work I would not use a line that is more than 90 days old “IF” I legitimately got back that far. 90 days gives the horse many races to look at. That’s one race every 18 days. If the horse isn’t sound enough to keep that kind of schedule then there is probably something wrong with the horse.
NEVER USE a sprint line in a route race.
NEVER USE a route line in a sprint race.

Once contenders and lines have been selected, look first at the “original” screen. It is on this screen that you can see the different running styles. It is on this screen that you can see the class levels they were able to successfully (in one form or another) race at and compare those class levels to today’s. It is on this screen where you can see the mixture of running styles in the race, which will give you a better idea of how the race will unfold.

[dlivery]

Thanks for the reminder of what and where we need too draw a line through
This is such a good remider of what we all need to do are read the conditions
or when the conditions are starting to get muddy and not clear
I would pass the race as I m not sure where to look for a winner when it starts to get unclear

Next Race

As Bill V would say onward and forward and good skill. :1a:

[Lt1]

For those who maybe having problems with paceline selection may I suggest reading Follow Up 81 the publishers section where Doc explains the modern day Methodology approach. Also go to the video section and watch the Docs'1998 one on one video seminar consisting of 3 vids and a carefully explained step by step approach. It should answer most the questions you may have.
Tim

[Lt1]

Another excellent source to check out are the Brohamer audio tapes. Tom provides his method of contender & paceline selections.
Tim

[For The Lead]

FTL

In order what are the 5 most important things you do
when you are picking pace lines

Jeff

Shoeless,

Although Jeebs answered your question directed to me, for me, let me offer this; go to this link http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=116&order=desc where you will find races I posted that start at the beginning and go to the end, including a rundown on each horse. As I recall, you will also find the PP’s for every horse in the race so you can look at them and follow along. You will probably need to go back to page 3 or 4 pages since it has been 3 or 4 years since I posted on a regular basis. Just find my posts and read through them. They are all done the same way so it should be easy for you to follow.

Now, I have a question for you.
I seem to recall that in a post I read somewhere, you use ENERGY.
There is more than one ENERGY program. Which one do you use? The one WITH BL/BL or the one WITHOUT?

[shoeless]

Hi FTL

Thanks for the link

I am using the one without, pretty sure it is Energy V

I did not realize they had one with it

Jeff

[For The Lead]

Hi FTL

Thanks for the link

I am using the one without, pretty sure it is Energy V

I did not realize they had one with it

Jeff

When I load ENERGY, here is the first screen that comes up.
There is no BL/BL, no line score (LS) and no thoromation.
When I get a couple of minutes I'll put up a recent race for you.

[Bill V.]

FTL I am Looking forward to your race demo

Jeff is a very good user of Energy He sends me good reports
all the time,

Jeff and FTL There are many versions of energy floating around
Just because your main menu screen might look the same,
Jim Bradshaw was always tweaking the program adding new readouts or
changing the algorithms.
He also would make custom copies, That is why some people have energy
in a 3 call format where the entry screen looked like this


44136

Most copies use the 4 call format

i have a version called EXDC. It has just about every thing Energy, Phase 1, Entropy ,Thromation and an odds line generator

Jim Bradshaw just kept adding readouts and combining programs if a client wanted it.

Energy and KGEN were awesome programs

Bill

[shoeless]

FTL and Bill

I am using the 3 call version and the opening screen looks the same

FTL I as well would be interested to see how you go about using the
energy program if you wouldn't mind doing so.

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL and Bill

I am using the 3 call version and the opening screen looks the same

FTL I as well would be interested to see how you go about using the
energy program if you wouldn't mind doing so.

Jeff

Here is a race from a couple of weeks ago. Richie P posted it when Bill V was traveling. Since Richie P posted the PP’s for all the horses I chose that race.
Naturally, the contenders and pacelines were chosen in the same way as I do in every race I have ever posted.
The #1 and #8 horses were scratched.
Here is a link to that race. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11273

[For The Lead]

The rest of the screen shots

[For The Lead]

Here is a closer look at the winner, #7
I have drawn a black line through all the races that are not comparable due to either distance, surface and/or class. That left me with one usable line in the last 90 days, line 2. It is a "+" race. When you clear out all the non comparable races the horse doesn't look bad at all.

[For The Lead]

If you have questions let me know.

Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them.

[Bill V.]

If you have questions let me know.

Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them.


Hi FTL Thank you for your demo I have to laugh when I read your comment

"Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them."

Well, one way is to be distracted and trying to hand enter while nervously sitting in an airport waiting to fly home.

Thanks for posting the link to the race Richie posted for me on the 17th
I had to do the race with my little netbook computer cause I did not want
to pack and travel with my good laptop, The netbook has RDSS in it but it's so underpowered with no memory I can't use it, therefore I have to hand enter into old dos programs.

When I landed that night I was able to download again into one of my old laptops which I took to Saratoga from my dad's house,
Anyway

If you look at my readouts do you notice something?
Where is the winning horse :7:?
I simply forgot to type in its pace line :eek:

As you noted And I agree, Line 2 is the line to use. I excused line 1 for too being too high class. And also wacky Los Al

44149


Let's see how Entropy handles the race with a line for horse 7 and no 1 or 8
since they were scratched

My lines

44150

The Entropy sort screen

44151

Entropy sort I will leave the top 4 ( low sort scores)
and make sure to include the #1 EP horse
so out goes horse 3 and 6

Now to thoromation

44152

As what tends to happen Thoromation has a cluster for the second win position So I go to the stop action screens
The first stop action screen to come up indicates how the race is variegated Sustained
The SP screen comes up and the winner # 7 wins the race

44153

[shoeless]

FTL

First of all thanks very much for posting those screen shots

What I would like to ask is how would you determine what horses
to play from them.


Bill

Thanks for yours as well

I really learn quite a bit from both of you and very much appreciate
the help

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL

First of all thanks very much for posting those screen shots

What I would like to ask is how would you determine what horses
to play from them.


Bill

Thanks for yours as well

I really learn quite a bit from both of you and very much appreciate
the help

Jeff

That is a good question, especially for anyone reading this that is not familiar with ENERGY.

However, before I answer the question there is something you can do for me. In post#9 of this thread, Bill V said the following;”Jeff is a very good user of Energy He sends me good reports
all the time,” So, on that basis I would like you to tell me how you would go about selecting the two horses to bet based on the readouts I posted. I think I’ll be able to better answer your question once I see how you would approach it.

[shoeless]

FTL

Bill is very kind but as I do hit from time to time I am really
not that good with the program. Another thing I do is not trust
the readouts when a longshot appears on top.

I find that the sort screen gets the most winners for me so I
go to that which would have led me to the 3 and 5.I really don't
know how to correlate the other readouts with it.

I do change the variegate as it says in the manual if the top MUV
horse is not the energizer.

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Here is race 10 from Parx today 9/4/17 happy labor day


Horse 1 Edfitzatmahle 3.5/1 Sus Press 2 for 24 Line 2 is a + paceline at Parx
51 days ago. I excused line 1 Its only 5 furlongs and from Penn so I feel
line 2 is more comparable

Horse 2.Icona 15/1 1 for 8 Sustained 3 of last 4 races have been routes. It ran well
in line 4 at 1 mile at Santa Anita in an open 625 claimer
Its first two tries at parx have been dismal, so I will look elsewhere

Horse 3. Hot Spice Girl 5/2 2 for 20 Early Presser Line 2 and 3 are plus lines.
I will use line 3 since line 2 has is from an off track with a -34 dtv.

Horse 4. Dusty Street 5/1 2 for 32. Sustained line 1 s a plus paceline 16 days ago


Horse 5. Royal Stage 12/1 2 for 35 No form No usable lines has not run a plus race in its last
7 tries against the same class as today's race

Horse 6. Elle Va 15/1 2 for 18 Early Line 2 is a (+) lines 1 and 3 are from turf races
I will rate line 2 as this one looks to set the early pace

Horse 7 She's a Dandy Lion 15/1 2 for 9 Early Presser Been away for 112 days
line 1 is a (+) against this same class No works in the last 26 days

Horse 8 Pink Satin N Lace 6/1 2 for 13 Presser Line 1 is a plus paceline against today's class
level. Line 1 is the first race back after a 97 day lay off

Horse 9 Ribot Star 5/1 2 for 21 Sustained He made a big move in the 3rd fraction
in line 1, but he shows no recent plus races

I will go with the 8 and 3
Horse 1 and 4 rate well but have such poor records I might use them underneath the 3 and 8
Good Skill


44166

[Lt1]

Hi Bill happy labor day. My contenders are 3-1-9-4-8. As always price will determine the bets if any.
Tim

[shoeless]

FTL

While working races I have noticed a good part of the time the winner
is in the top three on the sort, the problem for me is getting the right
two to play.

Jeff

[tlyiii]

Nice Call Bill V!

[For The Lead]

FTL

Bill is very kind but as I do hit from time to time I am really
not that good with the program. Another thing I do is not trust
the readouts when a longshot appears on top.

I find that the sort screen gets the most winners for me so I
go to that which would have led me to the 3 and 5.I really don't
know how to correlate the other readouts with it.

I do change the variegate as it says in the manual if the top MUV
horse is not the energizer.

Jeff

Ok, let me start with your comment about not trusting the program when there is a longshot “ON TOP”. In the version of ENERGY I have there is no BL/BL, LS (line score), VDC or any other number that would give any indication that the lowest or highest number in any group is the so called “best horse” or “ON TOP”….AND….bets are NOT based solely on odds. In other words, no waggercapping. That is not to say that odds do not play a part, they do. As an example, suppose you get your two horses and one is even money and the other is 2/1, obviously you have no bet. The race would be a pass.
You said that on the sort screen I posted you were led to the #3 and #5. The “sort screen” is always presented in the same way, by ranking of “EP”. This does NOT mean the program is telling you the top two horses are the best, because it is not saying that at all. As an example,. Those two horses are the “top two” in the sort, but since the sort is based on “EP” those two horses are the two best “EARLY” horses. If you look right above the column headings on the sort screen you will see the word “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. On the screen shot just above the sort screen you will see the “VARIEGATE” which says “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. These two things are telling you that the program has determined, based on the contenders and pacelines entered, that the winner of this race should run “SUSTAINED”. Obviously, the #3 horse can longer be considered. Therefore, the column on the sort screen you should be looking at is the column “SP” (sustained pace). Now, the top two rated “SP” horses are #5 and #4, however number 5 is also the #2 “EP” horse, so is the horse early or sustained? So at this point let’s consider the 3rd ranked “SP” horse, #7. SUSTAINED, to me means late, so let’s look at the column “LX” which is late energy. In that column the top two horses are #7 and #5. Now look at the last screen “EXDC MATCH UP”. On the right hand side is the “LATE EXDC”. On this screen shot you will see #7 is ranked best on “LATE EXDC”. Look at all the things I circled in red on that screen. There is no way to not have the #7 horse as one of your two horses to bet. By the way, even though it was the longest shot on the board!

The reason I always liked the version of the ENERGY program that I have is because I think it was the best attempt I have ever seen at actually handicapping a race! Of course, you better have only true contenders and good pacelines. Entering every horse in the race will only lead to disaster. Likewise, bad contenders and bad pacelines will also lead to disaster.

Now here are some of my personal opinions.
You say you don’t trust when your ENERGY program picks a longshot ON TOP. The first thing is, there is NOT an "ON TOP".
I joined this site 9 years ago and in all that time my view on contender and paceline selecting has not changed one bit. It has CONSISTENTLY been the same.
The majority of races that I have posted have been races OTHER PEOPLE have chosen, not me, just like this race. The point is, I didn’t want to be accused of cherry picking races so they fall into my way of thinking.
Change the VARIEGATE? I don’t have experience at doing that. Changing the variegate is changing the way the program looks at the race. Perhaps it is the contenders and/or pacelines that need to be changed.
I mentioned CONSISTENCY. Everyone has to choose a contender and paceline selection method and stick with it….for a long time. If you have a good method, you will get good results. If you choose a bad a method, you won’t.
From what I have observed, people have a contender and paceline selection method that changes with every race they look at. There is NO CONSISTENCY.
As you can see from the first screen shot I posted showing the first copyright date as 1987, 30 years later the program can still pick winners at good prices. And keep in mind, in those days the use of the original guidelines in the paceline manual were in use! ;) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!! :)

P.S. - In your last post you said many times the winner is in the top 3 on your sort screen. That made me smile. Now that you understand that the sort screen is presented in order of EARLY horses, it is no surprise to me that many of your winners come from the top three in that category. :D

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

FTL's demo is right on. The only thing he might not know is ( maybe he does?)
the sort is based on the Muv and 3 part varius readout

It is not actually sorted by EP as in Early Pace. Early EXDC which is what the bar graph A is showing is. Bar graph B or Paragon B is not Sustained as in SP
Late EXDC is if the race favors other than normal as in late biased

In FTL's example, Energy has called the race variegated Sustained
Therefore the Paragon B bar graphs are preferred for win bets

FTL brings up another point This program is 30+ years old,
At the time this program was "the" program of the methodology,
The emphasis was on winning 66% of your bets from your top 2 selections
Win Percentage was the goal not so much ROI,

You do send me many good reports But you also are an exacta bettor
It was not until Doc's next program KGEN , and then Entropy, that getting the place horse for exacta's was added to the algorithms.

For Exactas with your copy of Energy I suggest you use the "other"
paragon or better yet the 3 0.00 horses on the varius.


Here is how doing exactly what FTL did in his race will get you the winner of race 10 from parx yesterday, which I posted early in the day a few post back .

Here are my lines

44174


The race is variegated Early So my top two on Paragon A shows the 1 3 and 4

44175

But you say you will change the variegate based on the o.oo MUV horse
or the energizer ( same thing)
Let's do that, can the 1 go wire to wire? I say no based on its line score and it's paceline so yes you could change the variegate.

44176

Now the variegated is sustained
and who are the top two on the B Paragon
3 and 4

I think if you follow the Paragons A or B determined by the variegate
your win percentage will go way up
If you use the 3 0.00 horses on the Varius you will catch some nice exactas

It did not work for me here because the 8 placed
(I had it to win along with the 3 )

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

Nice Call Bill V!

Thank you The 3 won but paid 2/1 I was hoping for the 8 but I will take the win

Bill

[shoeless]

FTL and Bill,

Thanks you both for taking the time to help me, I very much appreciate
it.


FTL , you really made some great points and it has helped me understand
the program better, I am using the same program you are.

I went back on a race I did yesterday and sort had the winner 3rd but
when I looked at the early and late exdc it was ranked 2nd and I missed
a 13.00 winner.

Your dead on to about being consistent in your work.


Bill, Your right about playing exactas have not been doing well with them and thanks
for the example.

Im sure I will have more questions

Jeff

[shoeless]

Why is the late match up exdc different from late exdc, the top 3 horses
are 3,5,7but when you look above at late exdc comes up 7,5,4.

[For The Lead]

FTL and Bill,

Thanks you both for taking the time to help me, I very much appreciate
it.


FTL , you really made some great points and it has helped me understand
the program better, I am using the same program you are.

I went back on a race I did yesterday and sort had the winner 3rd but
when I looked at the early and late exdc it was ranked 2nd and I missed
a 13.00 winner.

Your dead on to about being consistent in your work.


Bill, Your right about playing exactas have not been doing well with them and thanks
for the example.

Im sure I will have more questions

Jeff

The first thing is to not be confused. As an example, I told you the horses on the sort screen were ordered by EP (rank). Bill corrected that by saying they were really ordered by MUV. Ok,I say 'to-MAY-toe', Bill says 'to-MAH-toe'. The screen comes up in order of EP rank or in order of MUV. It all comes down to the same thing with one exception. You can change the MUV, but that doesn't change the EP rank. Look at the race Bill posted and look at his original sort screen. Then go to the sort screen where he changed the variegate. He now has two horses with a 0.00 MUV, but the EP rank has not changed. I just find it easier and less confusing by simply using the EP rank.

As far as the $13 winner you missed is concerned, perhaps there is a reason for missing it and perrhaps there isn't. Without seeing the screen shots I can't tell.

One thing I cannot over emphasize is, you cannot look at the sort screen like that is the order that the program is indicating the best horse is at the top and the worst horse is at the bottom. THAT IS NOT HOW IT WORKS! Just as an example, perhaps the horse in your race, that was 3rd on the sort screen, was actually THE BEST HORSE. I have no way of knowing.

I'm sorry, but you have got to get the idea of "TOP HORSES" out of you head. That is only going to mess you up.
I will say again, the sort screen is based on EP rank, nothing more and nothing less. If you are more comfortable with Bill's view, then look at the sort screen as nothing more than the horses being sorted on MUV. IT IS NOT THE PROGRAMS CHOICE OF HORSES TO BET. The ONLY exception is where the program determines the race will run EARLY. THEN and ONLY THEN is the program telling you the first two horses in the sort are the horses to play. Why? Because the program determined the race will run EARLY and the first two horses in the sort are the two EARLY horses.

Now to your question about the race where I posted screen shots.
You asked, "Why is the late match up exdc different from late exdc, the top 3 horses
are 3,5,7but when you look above at late exdc comes up 7,5,4.”
FIRST, the “TOP 3 HORSES” are nothing more than the very same top 3 horses found on the sort screen. You will also notice the bottom 2 horses are the very same bottom 2 horses on the sort screen and in the very same order. You’ll also notice the horses are in the very same order on the left side of the screen as they are on the right side of the screen and in the very same order as they are on the sort screen.

Now, since we are looking for “LATE” energy, then we are looking at the right side of the screen, not the left side which is “EARLY” energy.
You will also notice the column headings “1st 2nd 3rd”. This is equivalent to 1st,2nd and 3rd fractions.
Notice the number next to the #7 horse under “3rd”. It is “0.00” that means this horse has the best 3rd fraction. Since we are looking for “LATE” energy, the #7 is the best horse and therefore shows above as the first horse in the graph.
Now just so you get a better understanding, the #5 is the second horse in the above graph. Why? Go back and look at the numbers under the column heading “3rd”. The second lowest number is 1.22 next to the #5 horse.
Now look at the third lowest number under the column heading “3rd”. You will see the number 1.88 and that number is next to the #4 horse who is the third horse on the above graph.

So the best horse in this race is the third horse on the sort screen.

I hope all or any of this has helped you.

[Bill V.]

Ironically after all these years growing up loving Italian food, I think I have
developed an allergy to tomatoes :mad:

Hi Jeff

You should check this out with some races you have run with energy

First, off The sort screen is listed by the EP rankings
The horses listed from top to bottom are listed by the EP rank
Doc and Jim could have listed the contenders by any of the 6 components
of the line score including the MUV It makes sense to list by EP since
The match up is who s going to the lead? and then who can or can't catch it?


RDSS users can change how the race is sorted
but we can't in Energy

Here is an example



Here is a DMR race sorted by the RX rating

44180

Here is the same race sorted by Total Energy

44181

The way the race is listed is not to be confused with who is the top ranked

Next post I will show how the program is rating the this race

Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

How you see the sort is not actually best top to bottom
Your contenders will be listed top to bottom based on the EP ranking

The energy program you and FTL are using does not tally up the line score
of the 6 components EP PR HE SP LX FX
If you were to add these 6 factors ranking together, The 3 lowest total score horses are your Paragon A horses More weight is given to the EP and MUV
ratings, This is why in this example the :5: is ranked first over the :7:
even though the :7: has an advantage 12 to 13.

44182


Paragon B is to be used as the "other" look or when the Variegate
says Presser or Sustained

Paragon B is the 3 best SP and LX factor rated horses

44183

Now to the Early and Late EXDC Match Up bar graphs

The Early EXDC Match Up Bar graph shows the 3 lowest total of your contenders
first two fractions added together.


The Late EXDC Match Up bar graphs show the top 3 (low is best)
totals of the 2nd and 3rd fractions weighted by the 3rd fraction
this is why the 12 is rated better than the 5
The race is weighted Other than early The 5 drops off quickly in the 3rd fraction even though its total score is lower than the 12
Energy rates the 12 better.


For Exacta bettors, Doc's instructions are to box the 3 0.00 exdc horses
There are no 0.00 horses in this race on the Early EXDC side but
There is on the late EXDC Match up They are 3 7 and 2 No
trifecta for this race. The 2 did not fire

44184


Result was 3 7 12

[shoeless]

FTL

Thanks yes what you wrote helped

Bill

Thanks for the examples on the program

[shoeless]

FTL

I was thinking about what you said about the top horse being in
the sort.

I was using Energy like Synergism 2 where you would pick FW,
EP and SP and the sort changed accordingly

[shoeless]

FTL

This I feel is the one of the most important questions to ask but
not sure if you have answer for it

How do you decide if to pass or play a race?


Bill feel free to comment as well

[RichieP]

FTL


How do you decide if to pass or play a race?




Hey Jeff,

Look for negatives on favorites to play against? (FWIW favorites in North America are winning at 38% clip in 2017. 2nd and 3rd choices paying less and less in most cases also.)

Look for "extra stuff" on your price contenders like some of Pino's patterns etc?

Keep a track profile if you are focusing on 1 or 2 tracks and look for an edge there?

I hope you are doing great Jeff, all the best!
Richie

[Bill V.]

FTL

This I feel is the one of the most important questions to ask but
not sure if you have answer for it

How do you decide if to pass or play a race?


Bill feel free to comment as well

Hi Jeff

"It all depends on how I feel "

There are many reasons why I would pass a race.
The thing is one day I will pass a race, and on another day play it, Even if all the things that made me decide to pass were present in both races,

You will get many excellent replies, to this kind of question
Everybody is different, I may be much more emotional than most,
So just because I think something does not make it something you should feel.
On any given day I could be in a number of physical and emotional states that affect my decisions. I used to have to base my pass or play decisions based on my financial situation. But today I am much more solvent,
When all I had was a $20 voucher and I needed gas money to get home and enough money for admission the next day, I was more apt to pass races,
Today money is not such a burden on my decision-making process.
But I am human. Some days I feel invincible, others I feel like I just want some fun activity, other days I'm too tired and just don't want to think too much,

If I feel I can win I will make something out of just about any race I look at.
I might play win only, win-place, win place show, Just show, I might look to play an exacta, I probably will choose at least 2 horses from the race and plays doubles or a pick 2 or pick 4
Or I might just say I will pass,

We all are who we are, I am a believer in what Howard Sartin observed
That winning is a mindset If I approach a race with the mindset of a winner
I will play the race, somehow, Just about any race where all the horses have at least 3 pacelines and there are no more than 2 horses with too many unknowns but who have decent morning line odds, I will probably make some kind of wagering decision involving the race.

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

hey Jeff
One more point, Often when I am in social situations at the racetrack
I find it often happens that, I will look at a race and decide to pass, The people I am with generally
expect me to win every race, I have looked at the race and I decide to pass,
But my acquaintances are looking for me for my expert opinions :rolleyes:
I then will have to do the race.
I just go into a relaxed almost unconscious "in the zone" mindset and
just use my skills and throw out my top 3 BLBL or VDC or TPR horses,

This relaxed "in the zone" ability almost always earns those around me a nice win and or exacta, In a race, I "felt" was a race I wanted to pass I can't explain it or why this happens but It has happened for many years.
I then have to make some kind of small bet on those numbers, I can''t give people numbers and not bet the numbers myself. That to me is wrong to have people bet something I would not bet myself.

Theis happened at Saratoga and at Monmouth when I was back east My two best wins were from races I only handicapped because I was asked
"who do you like ?"

[shoeless]

Richie,

Thanks for the reply and all the best to you and your family, from your pictures at the SPA
you really look happy and I am glad to see it


Bill

Thanks as well and happy you were able to be at Monmouth with the family

[For The Lead]

FTL

This I feel is the one of the most important questions to ask but
not sure if you have answer for it

How do you decide if to pass or play a race?


Bill feel free to comment as well

There is more than one reason to pass a race.

You find a race where there are no “unknown factors”. You are able to get good pacelines for several horses in the race. Those horses with no lines, because they have no form, are eliminated as non-contenders. You enter your contenders into your program and get your two horses to bet. If the odds on one or both of your horses is too low….PASS THE RACE. What are odds that are “too low”?
There is the obvious, such as your two horses are 4/5 and 2/1. Beyond that, it is up to each individual to set their own minimums.

If I remember correctly, Doc’s advice was, if you encounter a race with two or more “unknown factors”...PASS THE RACE. What is an “unknown factor”? Here are some examples.
A maiden race where there are two or more first time starters.
A race being run on the turf and there are two or more horses with no turf lines.
A race being run on the dirt and there are two or more horses with no dirt lines.
A race at a sprint distance and there are two or more horses with no sprint lines.
A race at a route distance and there are two or more horses with no route lines.

These are some examples for you to begin with. My best advice is to pay attention to the races you handicap. Draw some conclusions of your own on every race you either play or pass. After the race, evaluate your thoughts prior to the race to those after the race. Ask yourself, “did I make the right decision?” Don’t reach any final conclusions until you have done many, many races. You can’t let “this race” dictate what you are going to do in the “next race”. You will need many, many decisions to base your conclusions on.

[shoeless]

FTL thanks very much for the reply

[atkinsrr]

Shoeless, a comment about #1 on your list of 5 important things on P/L selection.
this year I have handicapped 250 races which are mostly stakes and high optional claimers. out of those 250 47 horses with layoffs of 80 days or more have ran. I use 80 instead of 90. out of that 47 there have been 19 winners and 28 losers for a win % of 40.4. Also about 80% of my races are on the turf.....thought this might be of interest......Randy A.

[For The Lead]

Shoeless,

As I said a couple of posts back, DON’T BE CONFUSED!
I maintain that horses ‘off’ more than 90 days win 5% or less. This covers ALL races at any class or surface.

Shoeless, a comment about #1 on your list of 5 important things on P/L selection.
this year I have handicapped 250 races which are mostly stakes and high optional claimers. out of those 250 47 horses with layoffs of 80 days or more have ran. I use 80 instead of 90. out of that 47 there have been 19 winners and 28 losers for a win % of 40.4. Also about 80% of my races are on the turf.....thought this might be of interest......Randy A.

In the above post, among horses ‘off’ more than 80 days (which cuts off 10 days from my recommendation) there were 19 winners. Now, 19 (winners) divided by 250 (total races) =7.6% (win percentage), which is slightly higher than my stat, but NOT accurately compared.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.
The 40.4% win percentage is arrived at by taking 19 (winners) divided by 47 (horses ‘off’ more than 80 days) = 40.4%. Not exactly a comparison of apples to apples when taken vs. my stat.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.

Let me add some more information for you.
Somewhere in all of my posts, I acknowledged that horses at the high end of the class ladder win more frequently after being ‘off’ more than 90 days than do horses at the lower end of the class ladder. But, that doesn’t change my overall stat. The fact of the matter is, if you are only playing the high end of the class ladder, you are not going to play very often.
Also, “TURF” or “GRASS” racing only accounts for approximately 10% of all races run each year, year after year. So again, if your play is going to be limited to turf/grass racing at the high end of the class ladder, you not going to be playing much.
The help I am offering to you and anyone else reading this is for the day to day, bread and butter races that make up the very large majority of the races we encounter day in and day out.

Good Luck!

[shoeless]

Thanks FTL

[shoeless]

FTL

Lets say today is a sprint and the variegate comes up late and
when your looking at the late energy you notice at the 2nd call
the horse is way back.

Would you still consider as a win bet?

I guess what I'm getting at is do you take into consideration
how far back the horse is at the 2nd call

Jeff

[shoeless]

FTL and Bill

I was using Energy over the weekend at Parx concentrating on 6
and 6.5 furlong races.

There were a few presser and sustained races which FTL I didn't
look at the sort. I noticed that the winners were coming from that
3rd fraction readout on late. Also a 9-1 and 21-1 ranked 2nd that
placed with the winner in the top 3.

The variegate seems to really nail how the race will be run

I know it's a small sample but maybe there is hope at the end of
the tunnel after all.

Thanks

[For The Lead]

FTL

Lets say today is a sprint and the variegate comes up late and
when your looking at the late energy you notice at the 2nd call
the horse is way back.

Would you still consider as a win bet?

I guess what I'm getting at is do you take into consideration
how far back the horse is at the 2nd call

Jeff

Here’s the thing. IF you trust your contender selection and paceline selection, then trust what the program tells you. Keep in mind that the computer program is as dumb as dirt, until you provide it with information and it is relying on the information you give it in order to do it’s job. It is not going to be correct 100% of the time, nothing is. So don’t second guess it.

[Bill V.]

Energy users and the Dos programs of that era were highly dependent
on track models,

How far back a horse can be at the second call ( and first call )
based on your model is the answer Doc' most likely would ask you if you asked this question, My advice is to model this and model the MUV and UXR readouts.

I see from your most recent post you are focusing on 6 and 6.5-furlong races from Parx. That's good, and I love how your confidence is growing.

[shoeless]

Thanks

[For The Lead]

FTL and Bill

I was using Energy over the weekend at Parx concentrating on 6
and 6.5 furlong races.

There were a few presser and sustained races which FTL I didn't
look at the sort. I noticed that the winners were coming from that
3rd fraction readout on late. Also a 9-1 and 21-1 ranked 2nd that
placed with the winner in the top 3.

The variegate seems to really nail how the race will be run

I know it's a small sample but maybe there is hope at the end of
the tunnel after all.

Thanks

Shoeless,

Here is the race Richie P put up the other day. It is race 4 from Remington on 9/16/17.

This is the way I did the race.
FIRST - the #5 horse was scratched.
SECOND - throw out the #6 and #8 horses as their ML was 20/1 and 30/1 respectively.
The remainning horses are #'s 1,2,3,4,7,9.

Now, horse by horse;
#1 - last line. The race was just 17 days ago and it is a (+) race. Why? It made up ground between the first and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.
#2 - last line. The race was just 12 days ago and it is a + race. why? It won the race.
#3 - last line. The race was just 17 days ago and it is a + race. why? It ran third.
#4 - NO LINE. why not? It has just one race in the last 90 days. In fact, it has just one race in the last 152 days. It is a turf race, so it is not comparable.
#7 - last line. The race was just 9 days ago and it is a + race. why? It ran third.
#9 - line 2. The race was 50 days ago and it was a + race. why> It won the race. Now, this horse has only 9 lifetime races, so they are all there for you to see. Take note that it made its' first start 728 days ago when it was just 2 years old. It was a Maiden Special Weight race, so its' connections had hopes for it. Notice the steady decline in class of race after that. Also notice that its' first 7 race were all on the turf. After its' second race it was off 172 days. That's almost 6 months. Then after its' 6th race it was off for 358 days or just about one year. The second race back after that lastoff it was dropped to its' lowest level and won. This time on the dirt. It then racein a 7F race. Ok, so the 7F race iisn't comparable and all the turf races aren't comparable, so all you are left with is the winning race, two back, on a muddy track. Oh well, that's all we have so we have to use it.

Now we have 5 horses to consider.
Here are the results in ENERGY.
I have marked some things in RED so just follow along.

[For The Lead]

A pretty easy $16.00 winner.

[Jeebs]

After reading through this thread (a great thread BTW!), I've played around with Energy! a bit. I admit that I am a novice with the readouts and whatnot, but as FTL has pointed out numerous times, good contenders and pacelines will yield dividends. A basic knowledge of what to look for in this program has been my guide. That said, I made some calls re: the early DD at Parx. Here is my DD ticket FWIW:

Race 1: 1-2-5 (Variegate Sustained)
Race 2: 4 (Variegate Early)

[Jeebs]

#2 rolled as the chalk. Off the last line, it was rated the top "Paragon A" and "Energizer" here. 2nd rated on "Paragon B", SP, and Late EXDC. It was rated as an "Early" ESP by the program. Only reason I included in the DD was because of its standing on SP, which was better than #5.

Anyway, we are live to our DD single #4 in Race 2. Won't pay much if it wins, but we would still stand to make a decent profit on the race because of bet sizing. We'll see how it goes.

[Jeebs]

Favorite was life and death after getting ganged up on, but held off a bomb to net us a small profit.

44301

[Lt1]

Tim a small profit is still better then a loss.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Good job Jeebs (Tim)

It's nice to see good results for good people

Glad you nailed the races at Parx with Energy!
Yes FTL is a tremendous teacher,

bless
Bill

[shoeless]

FTL

A BIG thank you for doing that and very easy to follow along,
your really helping me understand the program better

[shoeless]

Bill

Thank you as well, your no slouch in the teaching department

[shoeless]

FTL

What would make you not use the last line of a horses pp's?

[Bill V.]

Bill

Thank you as well, your no slouch in the teaching department

Thank you Jeff , you know how much I owe to Doc` so anything I can do is my gift back to others

Bill

[For The Lead]

FTL

What would make you not use the last line of a horses pp's?

Acceptable reasons for not using the last line where the horse ran a bad race or encountered one of the following. Remember, we are looking for either "+" or "(+)" races.

Let's start with a controversial reason.

1 - WRONG SURFACE. So what is controvesial about that? Sounds pretty straight forward, doesn't it? Well, suppose you are looking at a race on an artificial surface. Let's further suppose the horse has no races in its' PP's on an artificial surface, but it does have races on dirt and grass. Are either of them acceptable? In my opinion only the dirt races are acceptable. There will be those who disagree. Why? They will say a horse expends its' energy on an artificial surface in much the same way it does on grass. I say "so what?". I'm sure there are other stories, but I'll just take a horse by the name of "Ft. Marcy" as an example. If you are old enough, perhaps you will remember him. If you're not old enough, GOOGLE his name. He was a grass CHAMPION, but he didn't start out that way. He started out, like most horses, running on dirt and was a miserable failure. In a last ditch effort, just before sending him off to the glue factory, they raced him on grass. The rest is history. Horses "feel" with their feet, just like you do. Some of them don't like the feel of dirt, but love the feel of grass. And the opposite is also true. Now, I have never heard a story where a horse ran on an artificial surface for the first time and came back and said,"WOW! That feels just like grass!". If YOU, in your bare feet, walked on an artificial surface, a dirt surface and a grass surface, do you think you could feel the difference? Probably, huh? So, my opinion is, grass is grass. Unfortunately, we have to deal with dirt and artificial surfaces. I use them interchangeably, but grass is grass and that's all that it is.

2 - WRONG DISTANCE. Just one note here. DOC said to use races that are within one furlong or 1//8th of a mile from todays' distance. Suppose todays' distance is one mile. Is a seven furlong race acceptable? NO! One mile is a route. Seven furlongs is a sprint. Don't mix sprints with routes or routes with sprints.

3 - WRONG CLASS. This means the class was too high. Go back one line and follow the guidelines.

4 - FIRST TIME OVER THE TRACK AT THE CURRENT MEET. If this is the case and the horse ran a poor race, go back one line and apply all the same guidelines.

5 - TROUBLE LINE. If the horse's last line is a trouble line, go back one line and apply all the same guidelines. Somewhere in one of my posts, I put up a screen shot of a horse from one of the early follow ups. Believe it or not, every line in his PP's was a trouble line. So what do you do? The answer is, use the last line as long as it fits the guidelines. By the way, for those who followed this in the follow up example race, they were rewarded with a double digit mutual.

6 - TRACK CONDITION. When the track is "OFF", such as muddy, sloppy, good, etc., you are not suppose to use that line. However, I need only to direct you to the race I put up yesterday. I used a line from an "OFF" track because it was the only possible line to use. I don't throw horses out because the only line I can get comes from an "OFF" track condition.

7 - THE 90 DAY GUIDELINE. This IS NOT a Sartin guideline. It is mine. If a horse hasn't run in 90 days I throw it out. It gets no line. When I am excusing lines, I do not go back more than 90 days. If a horse is sound and racing on a regular basis, it can run 4 or 5 times in 90 days. If you can't get a line from one of those races the horse is probably not going to win. If a horse came back after a long layoff and has just one race back, it better be a "+" or "(+)" race or it gets thrown out. The other races will be more than 90 days old.

I think this will cover most of the situations you will encounter.
Hope it helps.

[Jeebs]

Is a seven furlong race acceptable? NO! One mile is a route. Seven furlongs is a sprint. Don't mix sprints with routes or routes with sprints.

I get the reason why it wouldn't be acceptable in the majority of cases (the dynamics of a 7F race around one turn are much different than a mile race around two turns), however one would think that at tracks such as Aqueduct, Belmont, Gulfstream, Churchill and Arlington, accepting the 7F to 1M would be acceptable, since they are both one turn affairs. I've come to accept the notion that at these tracks, the 1M distance is basically a long sprint, since they are racing at most, a half mile straightaway before hitting a turn, and the absence of the first turn and the force created by racing around a turn lends itself better to a faster pace than its two turn counterpart. The pace of race might vary race to race between 7F and 1M, but all things equal, the horses are only dealing with the single turn. Just my two cents.

[For The Lead]

I get the reason why it wouldn't be acceptable in the majority of cases (the dynamics of a 7F race around one turn are much different than a mile race around two turns), however one would think that at tracks such as Aqueduct, Belmont, Gulfstream, Churchill and Arlington, accepting the 7F to 1M would be acceptable, since they are both one turn affairs. I've come to accept the notion that at these tracks, the 1M distance is basically a long sprint, since they are racing at most, a half mile straightaway before hitting a turn, and the absence of the first turn and the force created by racing around a turn lends itself better to a faster pace than its two turn counterpart. The pace of race might vary race to race between 7F and 1M, but all things equal, the horses are only dealing with the single turn. Just my two cents.

By that measure a 9 furlong race at Belmont is also just a long sprint since it, too, is around just one turn.
It is true that the pace of the race can vary between 7 furlongs and 1 mile races and that is enough reason to not mix the two distances.
CONSISTENCY is the key.

[Jeebs]

By that measure a 9 furlong race at Belmont is also just a long sprint since it, too, is around just one turn.
It is true that the pace of the race can vary between 7 furlongs and 1 mile races and that is enough reason to not mix the two distances.
CONSISTENCY is the key.

While I agree that a consistent approach is key, FLEXIBILITY and local knowledge of your track/circuit is also key! My experience playing the NY tracks for many years is that the 1-turn mile races at Aqueduct and Belmont play very similar to their 7F counterparts. Par time charts support this. As you point out above, they do indeed run 1 1/8M (and 1 1/16M) races around one turn at BEL, and naturally, those distances run completely different than the 7F and 1M races. If anything, I would argue that the sudden change in dynamics from 1M to 1 1/16M and greater would be reason enough not to mix THOSE races in the analysis.

Now, would mixing 7F and 1M distances at Gulfstream be ideal? According to my experience and par times, no! This could very well be a function of run-up (Gulfstream was re-built before the 2005 winter season, which was when they expanded the old 7F chute to accommodate the 1M distance). They just seem to run wackier time-wise than their 7F counterpart.

Now, if you're comparing these 1-turn distances across other similar tracks with that type of structure (CD, AP are the others that I can think of off-hand), then the safe bet IMO would be to not mix the 7F lines with 1M lines and vice-versa. All things are NOT equal at that point.

This leads to another question: If 1-turn 1M (or longer) races are technically non-comparable to their 2-turn counterparts, do you mix those races out of necessity? Or do you hold steadfast and assign no line to the 1-turn horse entering the 2-turn race with no recent (<90 days) 2-turn lines? This situation rears its head at SAR and AQU, when horses running 1M/1 1/16M/1 1/8M lines at BEL now appear around 2 turns at those two tracks. In most cases using your guidelines steadfast, it is going to leave a few (if any) out-of-town runners (more the case at SAR) with lines, while many of the NY locals will have no line until they have run over the track at the 2-turns. The reality however, is that the NY locals tend to win these races more often than not, despite "stretching out" to 2-turns.

One last note: Unless it's apples for apples, or I simply have no other turf line to use, I refuse to rate those asinine "7 1/2F" Gulfstream turf races that are closer to 1 1/16M after run-up and rail settings than a true 7 1/2F. Why? They simply don't mix well with other turf route distances either at GP or anywhere in general. I was able to mentally downgrade a favorite off a GP 7 1/2F turf line at Saratoga, which ended up putting me on a $17 winner with a "normal" turf paceline.

Like Bill V. and Shoeless Jeff said, we all appreciate the insight and discussion that you offer!

[Mitch44]

Jeebs:


With TrackMaster run up distances are accounted for whereas with Bris they aren't so depending on what your using makes a difference on those crazy 7.5 F races at GP.

Sartin has its own formula for adjusting cutbacks and stretch outs, generally 6 1/5's which has to adjust for turns & deceleration etc.


The old Ray Taulbot's adjustment I learned was that he used and recommended was 7 points (speed rating) for two turn adjustments and 3 points for one turn adjustments. This was to get a correct variant.


Adjustments make sense as horses have to slow down to run a turn or centrifugal force takes them wide to lose lengths on a turn.(more or less depending on the sharpness of the turn and banking) NY tracks tend to have more sweeping turns and not as sharp as a Pimlico.


With Taulbot these were adjusted to the speed rating or 1 length. Now I admit that an a adjustment by Sartin or Taulbot would be much more accurate for beaten lengths if considered by the actual distance being measured. However it makes absolutely no difference at all what one uses as long as it applied consistently.

I have always used 3 points or 3 lengths per turn adjusted to a turn eliminated or additionally has to be negotiated. Try that for Bris adjustments or on your Par charts
to see if that solves your problem.


Mitch44

[shoeless]

FTL,

First off thank you very much for taking the time to write that
up.

If there is no excuse for the last line and the horse doesn't have
a "+" or "(+)" races do you throw it out

Also for 90 day rule have you found where you get a good
percentage by narrowing the days down.

Also how do you handle horses dropping way down from last race

[For The Lead]

FTL,

First off thank you very much for taking the time to write that
up.

If there is no excuse for the last line and the horse doesn't have
a "+" or "(+)" races do you throw it out
YES. That makes sense, right? The horse has no excuse for a poor race, so why would you want to go back a line….or 2 or 3 or 4?

Also for 90 day rule have you found where you get a good
percentage by narrowing the days down.
As I have said many times, horses OFF more than 90 days win 5% OR LESS.
Also, I’ll just repeat myself here. THE 90 DAY GUIDELINE. This IS NOT a Sartin guideline. It is mine. If a horse hasn't run in 90 days I throw it out. It gets no line. When I am excusing lines, I do not go back more than 90 days. If a horse is sound and racing on a regular basis, it can run 4 or 5 times in 90 days. If you can't get a line from one of those races the horse is probably not going to win. If a horse came back after a long layoff and has just one race back, it better be a "+" or "(+)" race or it gets thrown out. The other races will be more than 90 days old.

Also how do you handle horses dropping way down from last race
It’s hard to answer that question the way you asked it.
My first question would be, “why is it dropping way down?”. Shouldn’t we look back at the horse’s second race back and see what level it ran for? Perhaps the second race back is at the same or similar level as today and the last race the horse was just moved way up. Below is the horse that won the race Richie put up.

Last race was a 15,000 claiming race. Today’s race is a 7,500 claiming race. That is several class levels lower. Should we throw it out? NO. The second race back was a winning race for 5,000 claiming. Today’s race is just one level up from that. Last race was at the wrong distance. Last race was the first time over the track at the current meet. Last race was at a level too high for the horse. There are multiple reasons to look back a line.

Take a good look at this horse’s lifetime PP’s. They are all there. There are two layoffs, one for 358 days and the other for 173 days. Take notice that the horse won first time out at Churchill Downs in a Maiden Special Weight race. It didn’t win again until a couple of years later in a $5,000 claiming race. A COUPLE OF YEARS? It raced at age 2, age 3 and age 4. In 3 racing years it only raced 9 times? Why do you think that happened? I don’t own the horse and I don’t train the horse, but my money would be on this horse having injuries. Why else would it have been laid off for almost 6 months and a year? This is a perfect example of how a promising 2 year old at Churchill Downs ends up in a $5,000 claiming race at Remington Park or any other low level track..

My point is, read the horses PP’s. Many times the answer to your question is right there in front of you.
When you encounter a horse that is dropping way down, more than likely the horse doesn’t have a + or (+) race you would accept, therefore you would throw it out anyway drop or no drop.

When you encounter a horse dropping way down that does have a + or (+) it will probably get bet off the board, in which case you wouldn’t bet it anyway. Look at the horse’s lifetime record. Is it 1 for 25, 2 for 40 or some other terrible record? Does it have a bunch of 2nd’s and 3rd’s? It is likely the horse’s’ connections are desperate to win a race with the horse and they don’t care if they lose it.

[shoeless]

FTL

I like your 90 day rule, I remember way back when using Larry Voegele
using 15 days as a cutoff which worked well at the time.

Thanks

[For The Lead]

FTL

I like your 90 day rule, I remember way back when using Larry Voegele
using 15 days as a cutoff which worked well at the time.

Thanks

LARRY VOEGELE !!!!!!!! Now there is a name out of the past.:) I have his book.

So I'm guessing you didn't need to GOOGLE... FORT MARCY!! lol

[shoeless]

FTL

Once you come up with your contenders will you then try to
narrow the field down from those or just enter all in the program

I have been studying your threads just follow the guidelines
and picking contenders both very well done

Have learned quite a bit from your posts and thanks

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL

Once you come up with your contenders will you then try to
narrow the field down from those or just enter all in the program

I have been studying your threads just follow the guidelines
and picking contenders both very well done

Have learned quite a bit from your posts and thanks

Jeff

Shoeless,

Once you have your contenders enter them into the program and let it do the work.
Keep in mind that as you looked at the race horse by horse, you should have taken note of things that may raise a red flag for you. I’m going to use the Pennsylvania Derby Bill V put up today as an example.

Naturally, the numbers 3,6,9 and 10 horses are eliminated due their ML being 20/1 or higher.
All other horses have both a race and a + or (+) line in the last 90 days.

Now, horse #2, the horse’s ML (12/1) is “ok” and it has a recent line (line 1, 57 days ago) that is a + race because the horse won. That race appears to be what is known as an “overnight” stake because of the low purse. But I couldn’t help notice the lower case “r” in front of the purse value of that race. If you are not aware of this, the lower case “r” means that was a “restricted” race. “Restricted” to what? Without doing a little investigating, I don’t know, but I do know it was NOT open to all comers as is today’s race. Here is an example. Each year, around Halloween, PARX runs a race called the “Halloween Handicap” or “Ghost Handicap” or some name like that, but it is a “restricted” race. What is the “restriction”?... only horses that are grey or roan are eligible. A “state Bred” race is also a “restricted” race, but it is not designated that way because it is already designated a “State Bred” race, so you know the race is “restricted” to horses bred in a specified state. At any rate, is this horse really a contender today when facing G1 horses on an open basis? I don’t think so! I enter it, but in the back of my mind it is a non-contender.

Here are the screen shots from ENERGY on the race.
Sorry, no good prices on this one.

[Bill V.]

Thanks for your look at the Pennsylvania Derby

The last line for the :2: horse was the Curlin Stakes
Here are the conditions of that race

Good Skill and thanks
Bill

44428

[TEPLHORSE]

FTL:
In Race RP 4, Sept. 16, 2017 (8.3 F) Condition CL s7.5 N3-L - and regarding Horse #9, line 2, the condition reads: CL c5/11 N2-L. I am studying your threads "religiously" and appreciate the time you are taking to teach us (I am really new to all this.). Can you explain the condition CL c5/11 N2-L? I have seen the small letter "c" before in a condition, but can not find the meaning any where. Thank you so much.

[shoeless]

FTL,

I really like your approach of looking at a race and hope I can
improve to being more successful.

It is extremely nice of you to share with us things that has taken
you years to develop and I am very grateful.

[shoeless]

Bill

Glad to see you post and get well soon my friend

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL:
In Race RP 4, Sept. 16, 2017 (8.3 F) Condition CL s7.5 N3-L - and regarding Horse #9, line 2, the condition reads: CL c5/11 N2-L. I am studying your threads "religiously" and appreciate the time you are taking to teach us (I am really new to all this.). Can you explain the condition CL c5/11 N2-L? I have seen the small letter "c" before in a condition, but can not find the meaning any where. Thank you so much.

It indicates the horse was "claimed", which means bought/purchased by another owner for the claiming price of the race in which it was entered.

[DontSayDont]

FTL:
In Race RP 4, Sept. 16, 2017 (8.3 F) Condition CL s7.5 N3-L - and regarding Horse #9, line 2, the condition reads: CL c5/11 N2-L. I am studying your threads "religiously" and appreciate the time you are taking to teach us (I am really new to all this.). Can you explain the condition CL c5/11 N2-L? I have seen the small letter "c" before in a condition, but can not find the meaning any where. Thank you so much.

This is the condition of the Sept. 16th race: (8.3 F) 8.3 furlongs or 1.70 which is 1 mile and 70 yards. (CL s7.5) It is a claiming CL race and horses entered can be purchased from the race for $7,500 (7.5). The small s in front of the 7.5 indicates that this is a race for Oklahoma bred horses as they are at Remington Park. (N3-L) This race is also restricted to non-winners of 3 races (N3) lifetime (L).

The horses condition from line 2 is: (CL) Claiming (c) was claimed in that race. (5/11) horses entered at RP many times run with 2 different claiming prices, 1 price for non-Oklahoma breds (the smaller price) and the 2nd price (larger) is the claiming price of Oklahoma breds. There is an OR in this as sometimes horses can be entered as: 14k - 12k which is a way a trainer can get additional weight off this horse. It would work like: horses entered where they can be claimed for 14k have to carry 124 lbs but if a trainer wants to enter his horse where it can be claimed for 12k it will only have to carry 120 lbs. You just need the complete conditions for the race to know the difference. Next is the N2-L. It is restricted to horses who have only won (broke their maiden) 1 race or non-winners of 2 races lifetime.

Hope this helps and doesn't confuse you worse :o

Ray

[TEPLHORSE]

FTL, Ray: Thanks. Now the conditions make sense.

[shoeless]

FTL

With presser races which side of the Energy screen would you look at

[Jeebs]

FTL,

Perhaps Ray Lopez can better answer if you can't, but in versions with Pre-Play stop action, there is an EXDC Deceleration graph and a SP Deceleration graph. What does EXDC mean?

[Mitch44]

Jeebs;


To the best of my knowledge it stands for Energy Exertion / Deceleration.
Their weighted together.

The EXDC is essentially the match-up in an earlier Sartin program which was the forerunner to later Sartin Programs. From testing and refinement better products and programs came about that were more proficient while each one assisted in the final products contained in RDSS as we know it today.

Many who had those programs at the time never did understand them, as how the readouts were achieved were hidden. Additionally with the evolution of the computer with faster processors and memory the Sartin programs quickly came & went by the wayside as did many other products that used computers.


While older versions still get winners for those who can make them work, they are incomparable to his final product for reaching the standard of 65 % with a two horse bet. That was playing races with no more than two unknown factors. Brohammer was very selective in the races he played and probably more so than others.


Having had several earlier programs, IMO none of those earlier programs and readouts can match today's RDSS.

Mitch44

[For The Lead]

FTL,

Perhaps Ray Lopez can better answer if you can't, but in versions with Pre-Play stop action, there is an EXDC Deceleration graph and a SP Deceleration graph. What does EXDC mean?

Good job by Mitch on your question regarding EXDC.

Actually, I wasn’t quite sure what “EXDC” meant, so I did a little research. In follow up #28 there is a introduction to Thoromation. Buried in the article is the below line. I can only conclude that this also applies to EXDC in ENERGY as well.

[shoeless]

FTL,

I wanted to ask how you go about handling trouble lines.

The ones such as stumbled at gate and checked are obvious
but such as wide, bore out or in etc.

[For The Lead]

FTL,

I wanted to ask how you go about handling trouble lines.

The ones such as stumbled at gate and checked are obvious
but such as wide, bore out or in etc.

Ok, the last line says “wide” or “bore out/in”.
Go to the next line.
If the next line is a “0” line with no excuse, then I would use the trouble line. Otherwise you would be throwing the horse out unfairly.
If the next line is a “+” race or a “(+)” race, use that line.

Here's more information on the subject.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784&page=3
It is post #28.

[shoeless]

Thank you

[Bill Lyster]

Shoeless,

As I said a couple of posts back, DON’T BE CONFUSED!
I maintain that horses ‘off’ more than 90 days win 5% or less. This covers ALL races at any class or surface.



In the above post, among horses ‘off’ more than 80 days (which cuts off 10 days from my recommendation) there were 19 winners. Now, 19 (winners) divided by 250 (total races) =7.6% (win percentage), which is slightly higher than my stat, but NOT accurately compared.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.
The 40.4% win percentage is arrived at by taking 19 (winners) divided by 47 (horses ‘off’ more than 80 days) = 40.4%. Not exactly a comparison of apples to apples when taken vs. my stat.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.

Let me add some more information for you.
Somewhere in all of my posts, I acknowledged that horses at the high end of the class ladder win more frequently after being ‘off’ more than 90 days than do horses at the lower end of the class ladder. But, that doesn’t change my overall stat. The fact of the matter is, if you are only playing the high end of the class ladder, you are not going to play very often.
Also, “TURF” or “GRASS” racing only accounts for approximately 10% of all races run each year, year after year. So again, if your play is going to be limited to turf/grass racing at the high end of the class ladder, you not going to be playing much.
The help I am offering to you and anyone else reading this is for the day to day, bread and butter races that make up the very large majority of the races we encounter day in and day out.

Good Luck!

FTL,
I noticed that since the start of Belmont in the spring, and following on through Saratoga, that a greater % of races at the main Eastern tracks are being carded as grass races. does that apparent observation point you towards any significant areas of your data base that might become more important?

Thanks,

[Bill Lyster]

FTL,

About the turf races. I reread after my post that you do not play them. With the increase in turf races at major venues has that changed at all?

Also, from your ongoing data base I take it that there are no real standout issues relating to turf races. Is that so?

Many thanks for all of your posts.

[shoeless]

FTL

I took your advice about looking at the PP'S from the bottom
up and it seems to help me. There was a race tonight at CT where
I noticed since the horse was claimed it wins every other race and tonight
was coming off a 5th place finish. The horse won at the wire didn't pay
much as it was bet down at the end but as my dear friend Pino used to
say better then losing.

Also Energy had the race early and went to the rank screen as you
suggested where it was first and had the best 3rd fraction. I would
have posted a screen shot but I am not that adept with computers

Thanks

[For The Lead]

FTL,
I noticed that since the start of Belmont in the spring, and following on through Saratoga, that a greater % of races at the main Eastern tracks are being carded as grass races. does that apparent observation point you towards any significant areas of your data base that might become more important?

Thanks,

Bill,

The short answer is NO.
I wish there was something I could point towards that would be beneficial. If I could, I certainly would.

I’m guessing that by “main” eastern tracks you are referring to the New York circuit.

Saratoga, which basically runs for a month (August), has always run more turf/grass races than the national average, so that is nothing new. But their meet is so short it is really meaningless. I mean, perhaps Saratoga gets 35 days of racing during their meet. At 9 races per day, that comes to 315 total races. Let’s say 30% are scheduled for the grass. How many are lost to weather? How many are maidens? How many just have horses with little to no grass experience? How many truly playable races remain? Naturally, the same trainers and horses that are at Saratoga are also at Belmont and/or Aqueduct during the summer and looking for grass races. They, too, have the same problems. As I noted in the quote you included in your post, grass racing is only viable at the highest levels, in my opinion, which really cuts down on the number of playable races. Also, it’s almost impossible to keep good models on grass racing... if you do it right.

I think it is obvious that I am not a fan of grass racing. It’s not that I don’t like grass racing, there just isn’t enough of it. But keep in mind, when I am answering your question I am also speaking to others who may be reading my reply to you. So although I am not attempting to change your mind, since I know you like grass racing, I am trying to enlighten the others reading this who may not be that well informed on the subject.

[For The Lead]

FTL,

About the turf races. I reread after my post that you do not play them. With the increase in turf races at major venues has that changed at all?

Also, from your ongoing data base I take it that there are no real standout issues relating to turf races. Is that so?

Many thanks for all of your posts.

Bill,

After more than 50 years at this game, with the years from 1997 through 2014 being full time, I am now retired and no longer download races every day, therefore, I no longer have an ongoing database. But I can tell you this, with all that time invested, I have seen no indication that I would ever seriously work at grass races like I did at “other than grass races” for all the reasons I noted in the above post.

I guess another thing I should point out is, grass racing aside, during the last 20 years or so that I was playing, I never played the “major” tracks, such as Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga, Del Mar, Santa Anita, etc. Years and years ago I would, but that all changed.

Funny thing is, contrary to what I just said, one of my fondest memories is the 1988 Breeders Cup Turf at a mile and a half at Churchill Downs. And although I don’t like telling of any of my exploits, I’ll tell this one story. In 1988 simulcasting was not what it is today. At Atlantic City Race Course they offered “early bird” wagering on the Breeders Cup. That meant you could go to the track on Friday night before the Breeders Cup races and wager on them. That is what I did. I went to the track, bought a racing form, got comfortable and handicapped the Breeders Cup races. I didn’t bet on every Breeders Cup race, but I did bet on a few. One of them was the above mentioned race. What made this memorable to me, other than the race itself, was just blind good fortune. As it turned out there was some problems with wagering at the track on Breeders Cup day and people could not wager. Now here is the important part. In those days any track offering wagering on the Breeders Cup races had their own pool, so you got whatever odds were generated by only the people who wagered at that track. So, I sat home and watched the races on TV. I got to see the winning prices AT THE TRACK. I think Great Communicator paid about $25 or $26 at the track. Since that is the horse I bet, I was happy, but naturally I was curious as to how much I was really going to get at the track where I bet. The next day, Sunday, I got the newspaper and went straight to the sports section. They showed the prices at a half a dozen of the tracks in the surrounding area, Philly, Delaware, Monmouth, etc., but none from Atlantic City. Monday night I went to the track. The first thing I did was cash my winning Breeders Cup tickets. As the teller ran my tickets through their machine, the amount I was to receive showed on a small screen. All of a sudden a large number popped up. What the hell was that, I wondered. I mean, the number increased by more than $2,200! I thought something was wrong and started looking around. The teller finished running my tickets through the machine and began paying me. No problem. Before I left the window I asked what the payoff was on the large return. Great Communicator had paid $74 and change at Atlantic City!! And I had bet $60 to win on it. You can only imagine the smile on my face. And that is why it is so memorable to me.
Here’s a link to that memorable (for me) race if you would like to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiY9bHHgpvo

[shoeless]

FTL

Do you keep models of tracks you play?

Jeff

[Bill Lyster]

Bill,

The short answer is NO.
I wish there was something I could point towards that would be beneficial. If I could, I certainly would.

I’m guessing that by “main” eastern tracks you are referring to the New York circuit.

Saratoga, which basically runs for a month (August), has always run more turf/grass races than the national average, so that is nothing new. But their meet is so short it is really meaningless. I mean, perhaps Saratoga gets 35 days of racing during their meet. At 9 races per day, that comes to 315 total races. Let’s say 30% are scheduled for the grass. How many are lost to weather? How many are maidens? How many just have horses with little to no grass experience? How many truly playable races remain? Naturally, the same trainers and horses that are at Saratoga are also at Belmont and/or Aqueduct during the summer and looking for grass races. They, too, have the same problems. As I noted in the quote you included in your post, grass racing is only viable at the highest levels, in my opinion, which really cuts down on the number of playable races. Also, it’s almost impossible to keep good models on grass racing... if you do it right.

I think it is obvious that I am not a fan of grass racing. It’s not that I don’t like grass racing, there just isn’t enough of it. But keep in mind, when I am answering your question I am also speaking to others who may be reading my reply to you. So although I am not attempting to change your mind, since I know you like grass racing, I am trying to enlighten the others reading this who may not be that well informed on the subject.

Well, I was just hoping something might turn up. When I did the research for the CSR and Rx3 factors it was clear that in order to encompass the same number of winners, percentage-wise, for turf racing you needed to consider more horses for turf than main track racing, so your results, albeit, from most likely a vastly different point of view, appear to be in line with what I found earlier. Too bad about that.....

[shoeless]

FTL,

I have been reading some of the old follow ups and in #26 they
wrote about using Energy with KGEN.I was wondering if you ever
tried it out.

Jeff

[shoeless]

FTL

Don't know if putting this question the right way but when picking
contenders how much emphasis do you put on class

For an example today in the 3rd at Parx it was an 8000 open
claimer race. The 4 horse had a impressive win by 3.75 lengths
but it was for 5000n1y and was just claimed out of that race.

Would you have included this horse in the contender mix? I
don't have the PP'S to put up or would have

I missed the winner by including this horse

Jeff

[shoeless]

FTL

Sorry for all the questions

When looking at a 7 furlong race how do you determine
making a horse a contender with distance pace lines

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL

Do you keep models of tracks you play?

Jeff

Shoeless,

The short answer is YES.

The information for a model was “built into” my database. Anytime I would want to look at a model for a particular track, dist, surface, sex and etc., all I had to do is ask the program to print it for me. It was always there just waiting for me to access it.

[For The Lead]

FTL,

I have been reading some of the old follow ups and in #26 they
wrote about using Energy with KGEN.I was wondering if you ever
tried it out.

Jeff

Shoeless,

YES, I have KGEN and when it came out I used it, but that was many years ago. Personally, I never found it added to my overall results, but that is just me, someone else my have different thoughts about it.

Here’s my advice. Anytime you introduce something new into your handicapping, be prepared to use it for a long time. The only way to make a decision as to whether or not it is helping you is to use it and keep records for hundreds of races. Short term results are meaningless.

[For The Lead]

FTL

Don't know if putting this question the right way but when picking
contenders how much emphasis do you put on class

For an example today in the 3rd at Parx it was an 8000 open
claimer race. The 4 horse had a impressive win by 3.75 lengths
but it was for 5000n1y and was just claimed out of that race.

Would you have included this horse in the contender mix? I
don't have the PP'S to put up or would have

I missed the winner by including this horse

Jeff

Shoeless,

The short answer is A LOT, when necessary.

I don’t have the PP’s for that race either, so I will answer your question based on the information you provided and “general” thoughts.

If you have been following along, you know the first thing I do is throw out horses with very little chance of winning, such as horses with a ML 20/1 and greater and horses off more than 90 days. Then I look for lines for the remaining horses based on the guidelines I have set forth many times. Those without a qualifying line are also thrown out. At this point, all horses that are left go into the “contender” column (so to speak). If you have noticed, most players have 5 contenders. I “might” have 5 and I “might not” have 5. There are as many as are left. (more on this later) Now, my observation is that most players consider any of their contenders to be possible winners of the race. I don’t! For that reason they are willing to bet any of them to win based on odds. I don’t! At this point all you have is some horses with lines. The next step is to enter your contenders into the program. Now you can begin to evaluate your contenders.

You said the horse you are asking about was coming off an “impressive” win. How impressive was it? I don’t mean, how fast did it run? And I don’t mean, how many lengths did it win by? The important thing you mentioned was that it beat “NON WINNERS OF A RACE IN A YEAR” for a claiming price of $5,000. Think about that. Not one horse in that race had won a race in a year, including the winner. NOT ONE! I mean, how tough of a field was that? I’d say pretty darn weak. The other information you provided was that today the race is an OPEN race for a claiming price of $8,000. So exactly what is an OPEN race? Horses in an OPEN race could have won 5 races in the last year. They could have won 10 races in the last year. I’m sure you get the point. Do you REALLY THINK that horse that just beat NW1Y for $5,000 is going to come right back and beat OPEN horses for $8,000?? Regardless of what its’ rankings might be...I DON’T!!

Like I said at the beginning, I don’t have the PP’s for the race and therefore I have no idea what the rest of the field looked like, so I just answered based on the information you provided and “general” thoughts.

Ok, back to the number of contenders. Since Tom Brohamer is the father of modeling, I’m going to take his advice. He once wrote that in order to enter a race into your model, you should have at least 5 contenders. You can’t “force” contenders. You have what you have and that’s all that you have. So, suppose you only have 3 contenders and the best “sustained” horse wins. Later on when you look at that race in your model, it will chow the horse 3rd early and 1st sustained. Well, how far back was the horse? The model says 3rd, but maybe it was further back than that. Because you only have 3 contenders in the model it’s hard to tell. If there were 5 (or more) contenders and the horse was ranked 5th early and 1st for sustained, now you have a better picture of how the horse measured up to the rest of the field that day. So, Brohamer's advice was, if you only have 3 contenders, cash your tickets, don’t enter the race into you model and move on to the next race. Only add a race to your model if there was 5 or more contenders. His advice always made sense to me!

[For The Lead]

FTL

Sorry for all the questions

When looking at a 7 furlong race how do you determine
making a horse a contender with distance pace lines

Jeff

Shoeless,

I’m not exactly sure what your question is, so I’ll just “wing it”.

A 7 furlong race can be a pain in the butt. A 7 furlong race is a sprint race. The standard has always been to use races within 1/8th of a mile of today’s race. However, that would make 1 mile races eligible, but 1 mile races are route races and I never use route races in a sprint. The opposite is also true. I never use sprints in a route. I don’t like this particular conversation because there is so much to say on either side of the discussion. I’ll make it as simple as possible and say again, I never use route races in a sprint!

Turn time, what is it? It’s suppose to represent the time it takes for a horse to negotiate a turn. In all of racing there is ONLY ONE DISTANCE where time is actually measured on a turn. That distance is 5.5 furlongs. In all other distances there may be “part” of a turn involved, but mostly it is on a straight away. The 7 furlong distance is one such distance. You should get yourself a track layout from a standard one mile oval and look at the different starting points for the various distances so you can get a visual look at what I’m saying. Let me back up for a minute. At 5.5 furlongs the horses start on the backstretch and run approximately ¼ of a mile before encountering a turn. Then they run around the turn which is approximately ¼ of a mile, before entering the stretch where they will run the rest of the race. Back to 7 furlongs races. The horses start from a chute and run almost ½ a mile before entering a turn. That means the turn time in a 7 furlong race is basically run on a straight away. Want proof? Just enter lines from 5.5 furlong races and 6 furlong races. Then add in one line from a 7 furlong race. Keep in mind the lines you use should be from “+” or “(+)” races just like you normally would. Now, see which horse gets the best turn time. Also see which horse gets the worst turn time. Do this over and over again until you get an understanding of what is happening.

There have been times when I have used 5.5 furlong lines in a 7 furlong race. There have also been times when I have used 7 furlong lines in a 5.5 furlong race. I don’t like it, but I have done it. Naturally, when I do that there is more evaluation involved.

So, I don’t know if that answers your question or not, but I gave it a shot!

[shoeless]

FTL

I’ll make it as simple as possible and say again, I never use route races in a sprint! This answered my question.

Thanks very much for your answers and want you to know that you really
have helped this old timer out immensely

As far as programs go I have been going from one to the next for quite a while but thanks to you and Bill sticking with Energy

Shoeless

[shoeless]

FTL

Today there was a horse running that was at the top of the Energy readouts
but running at this distance had 13 starts 0 wins 4 2nds 2 3rds. Would this
have affected your decision if to bet it or not

Jeff

[shoeless]

FTL

Hopes this makes sense

I am having a problem of liking horses and then going back and finding
excuses either not to bet them or bet very little. This happened to me
recently with a 9-1 shot that Energy had and today with a 5-2 horse.

I really am not sure if it's due to lack of confidence or not

Any suggestions?

Shoeless

[For The Lead]

FTL

Today there was a horse running that was at the top of the Energy readouts
but running at this distance had 13 starts 0 wins 4 2nds 2 3rds. Would this
have affected your decision if to bet it or not

Jeff

Both of your questions, today, are way to complicated to answer with such little information.

And I am still a little uneasy when you say a horse was "at the top" of the readouts. Based on things you have said previously lead me to believe you are looking at the rankings, which are always ordered by the "early" or "EP" column, and saying that is "the top". Horses "at the top" would only be the correct horses to play if the variegate is "EARLY". Other than that, they may not be the "top" horses. I hope you understand what I mean.

[shoeless]

FTL

I didn't mean top in the rankings as only look at that now if race is
early.

Lets say in general looking at PP'S if you have a contender that does
not fare well at today's distance will you still consider it as a win bet.

Your right about the other question it was too confusing

Shoeless

[Bill V.]

FTL

Hopes this makes sense

I am having a problem of liking horses and then going back and finding
excuses either not to bet them or bet very little. This happened to me
recently with a 9-1 shot that Energy had and today with a 5-2 horse.

I really am not sure if it's due to lack of confidence or not

Any suggestions?

Shoeless
Hi Jeff

Have you tried writing down on a peace of paper all you wager decisions ?
Maybe make a wager decision form and circle all your win bets.
Always focus on your winning decisions , Another helpful thing for you is write down next to Energy's win contenders, whether you feel it is a positive or negative bet,

If you bet a horse at 5/2 Is this a positive? It probably is , so you should make a full bet,
If you come up with a 9/1 this is a big positive cause even at just a $2 bet you are going to make a 16 dollar profit,
By and large the best thing to do to improve your confidence is to focus on your wins

The best to you.
Blessings
Bill

[shoeless]

Thanks Bill

Hope your feeling better

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL

I didn't mean top in the rankings as only look at that now if race is
early.

Lets say in general looking at PP'S if you have a contender that does
not fare well at today's distance will you still consider it as a win bet.

Your right about the other question it was too confusing

Shoeless

See your "PM".

[shoeless]

FTL

I am extremely grateful for all of the help you have given me and
plan on following your advice. I have been very fortunate to have
you and Bill V take the time to try and help me.

I hope others have benefited from this thread

Thanks

[partsnut]

i have a version called EXDC. It has just about every thing Energy, Phase 1, Entropy ,Thromation and an odds line generator

Jim Bradshaw just kept adding readouts and combining programs if a client wanted it.

Energy and KGEN were awesome programs

Bill

Bill,

EXDC or EXDCX were 2 of the best programs that came out of the early
Sartin methodology. I use to use Energy for the long forgotten BRIS contests and placed 12th and 13th out of thousands of participants many years ago.
The complexity of todays race cards makes horse racing quite a challenge.
Most software products fall short of the mark. However, I am finding that the Sartin Methodology still holds up if you are selective in what type of races you choose to play and the software you choose to play them with.

I will use EXDCX every so often. I like the preplay and Thoromation screens as well as the odds projector.
Bill, as you said, they are still great programs.

I hope you are feeling better.:)

[shoeless]

Were there 2 different ways of doing the + and O's, I thought at first there was no + within the O

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff


Doc's written and spoken guidelines get "telephoned" Its best to go to the source.

This is from the heart and soul very beginning The Yellow Manual
there is nothing earlier than "old yeller"

45019


The Telephone Game
45018

[shoeless]

Bill

Thanks you and FTL have gotten me started to use this

Jeff

[shoeless]

FTL

I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on using TPR
in the handicapping process

Shoeless

[shoeless]

FTL

One thing I have picked up from your teachings is looking at the
3rd fraction in Energy when race variegates sustained.

I have been doing races just trying to learn and it seems so far
that these horses win a high percentage

Happy Thanksgiving and Thanks for your help

[shoeless]

I think in the FU'S Doc had mentioned about betting the 3rd fraction horses

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

This is why the EXDC and SP readouts are so powerful
The mantra of the teaching members was beware of 1 run horses

I will use a example from TPR

Modeling the EPR LPR and TPR readouts you will most likely see
your winning horses have two of the these readout being in the top 4

Here are my most recent 20 races from my Model

These are the rankings for the Winning horse and Place horse

WIN Place

45046 45047

[shoeless]

Bill

Nice work you have helped me out as always

FTL'S example using energy was a big help too otherwise I would
still be looking at that first ranking screen for sustained races

Both of you make a great teaching combo

Jeff

[Jeebs]

7 - THE 90 DAY GUIDELINE. This IS NOT a Sartin guideline. It is mine. If a horse hasn't run in 90 days I throw it out. It gets no line. When I am excusing lines, I do not go back more than 90 days. If a horse is sound and racing on a regular basis, it can run 4 or 5 times in 90 days. If you can't get a line from one of those races the horse is probably not going to win. If a horse came back after a long layoff and has just one race back, it better be a "+" or "(+)" race or it gets thrown out. The other races will be more than 90 days old.

Pizzolla has a pet term for the 2nd off the bench types with a poor race: SNAILs... “Showed Nothing After Its Layoff”... in his work, that runner gets stuck with the last line. Of course, he uses more liberal guidelines along with form patterns and other angles to try and reel in home run horses for intrarace exotics.

[winning]

Don't always throw out horses over 90 days. Look at how the horse matches up with other horses. Today at GP 03/03/2018. First race at 6.5 Furlongs, the number 1 horse Miss Helen is lone Early horse off for 154 days and won by 4.5 lengths and paid $12.80 to win, and the 11th race horse number 11 Hofburg with the best 2nd fraction off for 182 days, won the race and paid $17.00 to win. GP race number 14, the number 10 horse won off 98 days layoff and paid $38.40 to win.

[Mitch44]

winning: You are correct and the # 1 in the 1st race was off 154 days. I had the # 1 and gave it to LT1 . To be honest with you I didn't make a dime off of it. I played it in the EX and DD and missed both. The 2nd race was a maiden and the EX the place horse #2 was no where on my radar. I took a shot because I knew the one would pay good and had a big chance.


Long layoff don't brother me and I handle them OK. This # 1 last 3 races were in routes and returned to its best distance today and the distance of its only win. It also had a new trainer who is 18% first start with trainer. Steady workout and one a bullet for the return while down in class and decent odds.

All layoff horses aren't the same and must be put into context.
Mitch44

[mikesal57]

The only time I bet a layoff horse is if the horse won in the past off a layoff
and only with recreational/action money ...

The stats show that layoffs are a losing preposition...

Here is stats from this year and broken down by tracks...
except for 3 tracks....layoffs horses lose you money..
You can point out those winners but there will be 9 out 10 that will lose.
You can follow guidelines but if you have doubts about a race or horse..PASS IT!

****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
MVR 147 20 0.1361 1.3215 1.2109 36 0.2449 0.8969
LRL 137 18 0.1314 1.2759 1.1912 29 0.2117 1.0109
GGX 191 19 0.0995 0.9661 1.0466 43 0.2251 0.8969
OPX 486 49 0.1008 0.9787 0.8909 82 0.1687 0.657
FGX 361 41 0.1136 1.103 0.8723 76 0.2105 0.7504
TUP 188 21 0.1117 1.0846 0.8564 35 0.1862 0.6934
FON 191 22 0.1152 1.1186 0.8304 43 0.2251 0.7754
CTX 147 16 0.1088 1.0564 0.8116 26 0.1769 0.5707
DED 322 29 0.0901 0.8748 0.746 57 0.177 0.6972
TAM 406 42 0.1034 1.004 0.7325 87 0.2143 0.772
SAX 442 48 0.1086 1.0545 0.7005 95 0.2149 0.6934
GPX 643 59 0.0918 0.8914 0.6561 132 0.2053 0.7421
TPX 198 18 0.0909 0.8826 0.6449 34 0.1717 0.7864
AQU 221 32 0.1448 1.406 0.6335 59 0.267 0.6158
HOU 279 25 0.0896 0.87 0.5473 53 0.19 0.6138
SUN 215 17 0.0791 0.768 0.5251 34 0.1581 0.626
PHA 105 13 0.1238 1.2021 0.4676 22 0.2095 0.7962
PEN 95 8 0.0842 0.8176 0.3842 20 0.2105 0.9147
PMX 29 2 0.069 0.67 0.1828 5 0.1724 0.469
LAX 26 2 0.0769 0.7467 0.1615 5 0.1923 0.4
RIL 55 2 0.0364 0.3534 0.1145 8 0.1455 0.2873

[Bill Lyster]

Mike:

Is your cutoff date for layoffs 90 days or something else? Please state.

Thanks,

[Mitch44]

mikesal57:
I assume your stats are correct and I'm well aware that long layoff horses are poor bets and risky. Just as well as horses stretching out, stepping up in class or repeat winners for that matter.

But where you make a mistake is that I do not bet all layoff horses. I only bet the ones that meet my standards. One of which is yours; " The only time I bet a layoff horse is if the horse won in the past off a layoff . . . " I also have several other requirements that it must meet which I posted in a previous post. If it meets my prerequisites I bet it and if not its discarded . The overwhelming majority get discarded, same for repeat winners and other aspects of handicapping.

I don't automatically discard horses with rules but I do look at them. Too many rules such as 90 day or odds over 20-1 etc. cause you to give up to high a percentage going into a race. I like to start off with a 100 % chance of winning and then I go from there.



Layoffs are a losing proposition only if you bet them all. Only a fool does or would do that.


Mitch44

[shoeless]

Bill V had suggested to me to do a 20 race cycle, he told me to take
my time and only do races I felt comfortable with. I finally finished it
and hit 13 races from the 20 using 2 horse bets.

I used FTL guidelines which really work getting the right horses and
pace lines in the computer using the Energy program which FTL and
Bill V helped me to get a better understanding of. FTL had told me that
I needed to use the program to see what works for me and found that
concentrating on the 3rd fraction horses was where my winners were
coming from.

I would like to thank FTL and Bill V as without their help even though
it's a small sample I would have never achieved this.

[dlivery]

As an outsider to many examples Bill V told me & also using FTL learnings have certainly increased my win positions :D

[Bill V.]

Thanks Jeff and Delivry

TPR and FTL's guidelines - To the best of my ability,
along with much better record keeping, has eased my mind.


Goals

46072

[shoeless]

Thanks Bill and Dlivery


Nice presentation on the goals Bill, having a plan is something I didn't have until I
started using FTL's guidelines

[Lefty]

What a great thread and learning experience.

[shoeless]

Lefty

Glad you were able to find something helpful here. owe it all
to FTL and Bill V for their contributions

[Lefty]

One Sartin Prgm I never had was Energy, but a prgm that can predict which horses liable to win early or sustained sounds great. I wonder why the Doc never put that in the later prgs. I would be interest what it says about the Derby?

[shoeless]

Hard to figure out why Doc never included it in other programs but as
far as the older programs go Energy seems to me the best of them.

[Bill V.]

Hi Lefty
After Energy or Phase,5 Doc wanted to go beyond early and late.
He taught and wanted his programs to measure not just if a race would favor early or other than early,
but the amount of early or ate energy relative to a horses total energy.
All programs thereafter used a energy generator, Each horse was and is still today measuring in RDSS these energy derived readouts,
Early Presser Sustained Early and Sustained Pressers and Late
Right up to follow up 88, Doc still refers to the computer generated beaten lengths and these running patterns from the energy generator.
Then he added deceleration based readouts culminating with V/DC.
This was Phase 6 which Doc believed was a synthesis of all his early work.

[shoeless]

Hi Bill

Figured you would know

Hope your feeling better

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

Thank you , I am slowly getting me wind back.
Nice to be in the new house, Lots of good home cooking with dad
will speed up my recovery :)

Bill

[shoeless]

Bill or FTL


In using Energy would a TE gap between horses be something to look at try and get the contenders down from 5 to 4. Just thinking a way to eliminate
the garbage after getting down to 5.

Ray chime in as well

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

When using FTL We are looking for horses that ran in the money or were involved in the pace of the race to the stretch call.

The horse becomes a contender if they meet these criteria. The objective is that it is showing in the last usable running line.

So, that said The horse should show it ran in all three fractions (total energy)
amongst the top 4 or 5 total energies amongst the other contenders
in the race, we are handicapping.

To answer your question, I would suggest eliminating for win the 5th rated horse if it is not rated in the top 3 of your programs choices, especially if the 2 adjust has been used

[shoeless]

Bill

Thanks for the response, FTL'S contender guides really work well for me

Jeff

[shoeless]

Bill

So after getting rid of 5th horse will just
rerun the program, better off only using 4 horses

Jeff

[shoeless]

FTL not sure if your still reading posts, I was rereading this thread and
this comment you made


Of course, you better have only true contenders and good pacelines. Entering every horse in the race will only lead to disaster. Likewise, bad contenders and bad pacelines will also lead to disaster.


IMO this is the most important factor in winning with any of the programs

Jeff

[shoeless]

I have been in a rut lately and have found another thing I have
been doing wrong and that's not getting the contenders first before
entering pace lines.

It pays to take a step back and reread threads, FTL and Bill thanks
for your contributions here.

Jeff

[For The Lead]

FTL not sure if your still reading posts, I was rereading this thread and
this comment you made


Of course, you better have only true contenders and good pacelines. Entering every horse in the race will only lead to disaster. Likewise, bad contenders and bad pacelines will also lead to disaster.


IMO this is the most important factor in winning with any of the programs

Jeff

Hello Shoeless,

I don’t get to P&C much anymore. In fact, it was Bill V. that alerted me to your post.

Let me try to answer your question this way. If I remember correctly, “Doc” made it clear that a “0” line should never be used to evaluate a horse.

As far as choosing contenders before choosing pace lines, I have always found that those two things go together, after all, how can a horse be a contender if it doesn’t have a line?

At most tracks on either dirt or artificial surfaces, 5 to 7 horses is generally the field size.
I’ve notice there are players that insist on having 5 contenders. I sometimes wonder where they get them in such short fields. That is not to say it is impossible to have 5 contenders in such short fields, some short fields can be very competitive, but for the most part it is very unlikely. There are only as many contenders as there are. There is no need to invent them.

Once you have your contenders and pace lines, it is up to you to determine if you feel the race is playable or not. The biggest problem you will have is finding a race with acceptable odds.

All I can tell you is this. DON’T FORCE IT! Playable races with good odds come along when they come along.

[RichieP]

Hi FTL
I just want to wish you the best and hope you are feeling good! Great to see you post and all my Blessings and best vibes are heading your way.
Richie

[For The Lead]

Hi FTL
I just want to wish you the best and hope you are feeling good! Great to see you post and all my Blessings and best vibes are heading your way.
Richie

Thank you, Richie, I really appreciate your sentiments.

[shoeless]

FTL

Thanks for the reply and always wish the very best to you and
your family.


Jeff

[dlivery]

There is one thing good about when the times are bad...
We have the sense to review and pull back and regroup.
Good of you to reach out and ask.

Thank You

As we all have to be reminded how we all got here by asking questions.:D

[shoeless]

Dlivery well said

[dlivery]

The Next Race Is In 20 minutes
Tea Time
Bah!

[shoeless]

There was a post in another area about the X and O'S but I didnt
feel it was right to respond as it's a teaching thread.

For what it's worth I feel it's a excellent tool in the handicapping process
and ever since I listened to the advice of FTL and Bill it has helped
me. I am though using a old hand entry program where the racing form
is necessary.

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Race 5 LRL
win 1-4 exacta 1 4 3

Fulcrum = Horse 10 114.1


Horse 1 Line 2 excused line 1, First try at LRL current meet
155 TPR -8 Late

Horse 2, Not much here against the fulcrum POR 0-12

Horse 3 Line 3 is a plus race at this same condition.
The track was listed as good
I excused line 1 and 2. Line 3 was a plus race good effort.

Horse 4 Line 3 Plus race on a good Del. track
TPR 154 -6.4 Late

Horse 5 Lightly race
Line 1 is a plus race but a very slow 138 TPR

Horse 6 Ships in from PRX 0-23
Line 1 is a plus race, same conditions
150 TPR -2.5 Late

Horse 7 drops again in 3rd life race
30/1 ML TPR'S are slow 132

Horse 8 comes off a plus race at CT
but adjusted from a multiple turn 9.0 race at CT
His 3 LRL TPR are all slow 127, 125, 131

Horse 9 Never routed
His 3 sprint TPR's are 139 133 and 129
His Early Late numbers are very heavy on the late side

Horse 10 = fulcrum Line 1 is a plus race
142 TPR

48267

[Bill V.]

The 5 improves as a lightly raced filly
and pays $12

The 3 and the 4 placed and showed

Horse 5 Lightly race
Line 1 is a plus race but a very slow 138 TPR

[shoeless]

Hi Bill

Thanks for putting up the race

Hope your feeling better and tell Dad hi

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Hello Jeff

I am doing better. Dad is happy Monmouth is running, He is taking today off.

In the race yesterday, I got reminded of how Doc use to say how Andy Beyer blew a gasket when he tried to win at Del Mar.
I am so tuned into Santa Anita and now Los Al. The TPR's seem so slow
from back east, I think it is because the EPR's are so much faster out here.
I never see 138 TPR's winning. Out here I see much more high 80's and 90's
for the EPR and they decelerate less but so does every other horse. So the TPRs
are higher

[shoeless]

Sometimes things dont work out for the best

Saturday in the 6th at Parx I did a race with Energy the horse on top went off
9-1. Following FTL'S guidelines I did notice the horse was dropping from a
open 10000 claimer to a 7500n4l. He won the race but got got DQD for
coming over on the 2nd place horse( Ive seen worse and they left it up).

Energy continues to amaze me how such a old program still does the
trick and the variegate is so accurate.

Thanks FTL and Bill for your help using this program

Jeff

[Bill V.]

hello jeff

I just watched the replay, The 6 ran well, I would have been worried about his +18 on the Early/Late and his below80 LPR
He won the race on the drop from open 10 claimers but I would have to agree with the decision to dq
Nice call on the 6 too bad about the DQ

48343

[shoeless]

Thanks Bill glad you put up the PP'S

I know he had a big early stick but thought he could overcome the
deficient late. Anyway he owned the 1st two fractions in Energy and
race variegated early which he was 1st so at 9-1 thought would give it
a shot.

As far as the DQ like I said I have seen worse with nothing being done

Hope your feeling better and tell Dad hi

Jeff

[gandalf380]

the trainer of the horse which was moved up used to train one of my horses at Suffolk. I am sure he was happy to be moved up. He was at that time a big bettor.

[shoeless]

Bill

Was wondering if you had a cutoff point odds wise on betting a horse
to win, Im not sure if he ever posted it but would be interested with FTL
as well

If anyone else wants to chime in feel free to do so


Jeff

[shoeless]

Thanks Parts hope your doing fine

[Bill Lyster]

When I did the summary of his posts, FTL said his cutoff was 4/1 and he concentrated on early horses.

[Lt1]

Pretty unfair if you ask me. I enjoy your selection post and by the way thanks for the invite.
Tim

[shoeless]

Thanks Bill

Sorry Parts

[Bill V.]

Hello Jeff

When I was betting to win my cutoff was 5/2.
Of course, today who knows if you get 5/2 when you bet
You might get 2/1 or less with late money pouring in

As Bill L pointed out. FTL was very selective and waited for 4/1

Today I am a horizontal bettor so I must take a few low price horses
or else have a very big bankroll and be very selective in my plays

This wait for value approach is a goal. It is sound and worth working for

[Bill V.]

Pretty unfair if you ask me. I enjoy your selection post and by the way thanks for the invite.
Tim

Hi Tim

Please see you PM

This can be discussed there

This thread is now CLOSED