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View Full Version : "Hold or Fold?" - FL Race 8 - 10/2/17


Jeebs
10-02-2017, 09:56 AM
Randomly combing through some PP's and found a strong minor sprint stake at the little track in Western NY known as "The Thumb".

FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM

Arctic Queen S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES
THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. FOALED IN
NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW
YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. No nomination
fee. $200 to pass the entry box and to
start. To be divided 60% to the winner,
20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to
fourth 2% to fifth & 1% sixth, seventh
and eighth. Weight: Three Year Olds 122
lbs Older 124 lbs; Non-Winners of

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 8-9)

Jeebs
10-02-2017, 10:02 AM
Here are PP's. Look for Monday, October 2nd, Finger Lakes Race 8:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/McPeek/MCPEEK+KENNETH+G/9999/summary.html

Jeebs
10-02-2017, 10:22 AM
Here are my lines. BLT/C with user changes made if necessary.

#1 - Line 2/Early
#2 - Line 1/EP
#3 - Line 4/EP
#4 - Line 1/Early
#5 - Line 7/Early
#6 - Line 2/Presser
#7 - Line 2/EP
#8 - Line 1/EP
#9 - Line 2/Presser
#10 - Line 4/Presser
#11 - Line 1/Presser

FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM

TRACK MASTER PACELINES (VART)
NO PN NAME 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR TV COND
1 1 VICTO2 22.8 45.5 104.8 1-1.0 1-2.0 1-2.5 1-1.3 93 1 FT
2 2 BUSTI1 22.7 45.6 110.4 3-1.1 3-1.1 3-1.6 3-4.3 96 -9 FT
3 3 TOUGH4 22.4 46.4 106.1 1-0.5 1-1.0 1-2.0 1-4.3 80 3 FT
4 4 RIP L1 22.7 46.4 111.9 1-1.0 1-0.5 3-3.5 4-6.8 71 2 FT
5 5 PACHA7 22.4 45.4 111.9 2-1.0 2-1.0 4-2.6 5-7.5 68 5 FT
6 6 BROOK2 22.7 45.6 110.4 6-4.1 6-2.7 4-2.1 2-3.5 98 -9 FT
7 7 BEE N2 22.9 46.0 118.5 4-1.6 4-2.6 1-2.5 1-4.5 88 -2 FT
8 8 SHE'S1 22.2 45.3 110.6 5-2.2 3-2.0 3-3.5 3-4.0 103 -10 FT
9 9 SLAM 2 22.7 45.6 110.4 5-2.6 5-2.2 2-1.5 4-4.8 95 -9 FT
10 10 WONDE4 23.4 46.2 123.5 4-1.6 3-2.0 5-0.8 3-3.8 82 12 FT
11 11 LEMME1 22.7 45.6 110.4 1-1.0 1-1.0 1-1.5 1-3.5 105 -9 FT




PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED)
# PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR MAN RC TRKDISTSE

1 1 VICTO2 22.0 44.8 110.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 85 94 SAR 5.5D
2 2 BUSTI1 22.4 45.1 109.5 1.10 1.10 1.60 4.30 84 90 FL 6.0D
3 3 TOUGH4 21.4 45.5 110.9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 81 73 FL 5.5D
4 4 RIP L1 22.2 45.6 110.6 0.00 0.00 3.50 6.80 76 84 FL 6.0D
5 5 PACHA7 21.9 44.7 110.7 1.00 1.00 2.60 7.50 75 87 FL 6.0D
6 6 BROOK2 22.4 45.1 109.5 4.10 2.70 2.10 3.50 85 90 FL 6.0D
7 7 BEE N2 22.3 45.1 110.8 1.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 82 87 AQU 6.5D
8 8 SHE'S1 21.6 44.4 109.1 2.20 2.00 3.50 4.00 86 98 PRX 6.0D
9 9 SLAM 2 22.4 45.1 109.5 2.60 2.20 1.50 4.80 84 90 FL 6.0D
10 10 WONDE4 22.7 45.3 109.7 1.60 2.00 0.80 3.80 83 96 KEE 7.0D
11 11 LEMME1 22.4 45.1 109.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 90 FL 6.0D

Jeebs
10-02-2017, 11:03 AM
#11 looks the fastest visual "Early", and the other earlies will be hard pressed to catch.

FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM
BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE

HIDE# PNcNAME Ld SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE

6 11 LEMME1 88 4 23.5 EVEN FL 6.0D 5/1 28 6 90 7

4 8 SHE'S1 86 5 17.5 5-2 PRX 6.0D 3/1 15 4 98 0

3 6 BROOK2 85 6 16.3 3-1 FL 6.0D 15/1 16 4 90 7

1 1 VICTO2 85 7 13.8 * 4-1 SAR 5.5D 6/1 41 4 94 1

2 2 BUSTI1 84 7 13.8 * 4-1 FL 6.0D 7/2 28 4 90 7

5 9 SLAM 2 84 8 12.3 9-2 FL 6.0D 10/1 16 5 90 7

SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐ │ PRIM │ SUPP │
│ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│ │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 VICTO2 │ 85│ 7│1│3│26│4│24│5││3│6│6││EAR│ 0.9││1│6│3│5│6│3│2│5│3│6│4│6│
│2│ 2 BUSTI1 │ 84│ 7│6│5│26│4│21│4││4│4│5││E/P│ 4.2││3│4│5│3│4│4│3│4│5│3│5│4│
│3│ 6 BROOK2 │ 85│ 6│2│4│22│3│15│3││6│3│2││PRE│ 5.8││5│2│4│1│1│5│4│3│4│2│3│3│
│4│ 8 SHE'S1 │ 86│ 5│3│2│20│2│12│2││1│2│3││E/P│ ││1│5│2│4│5│2│1│2│2│4│2│2│
│5│ 9 SLAM 2 │ 84│ 8│4│6│29│5│28│6││5│5│4││PRE│ 5.3││4│3│6│2│3│6│5│6│6│5│6│5│
│6│11 LEMME1 │ 88│ 4│5│1│11│1│ 5│1││2│1│1││PRE│ 3.0││2│1│1│3│2│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

Jeebs
10-02-2017, 11:06 AM
To clarify on my ESP: those are Energy Run Styles based on the Median% of the lines that I selected. #11, who I labeled as a visual "Early" horse, has a Median% output of presser.

raceman5
10-02-2017, 11:45 AM
Interesting race. I like the 8 and 10 because they seem to like running against fast pace races. The 1 bothers me he looks like the speed of the speed. He can run quarters in 21.4 and 21.2, so he may get the jump on the rest of the speed. Breaking from the 1 hole the jock has no choice but to gun him.


Bob

DontSayDont
10-02-2017, 04:12 PM
Just a couple of notes: Horse #1 hasn't won beyond 5.5f in the past performances showing. #5 wins have been at routes with best finish in sprint third, but behind 7 1/2 lengths. #6's main jockey stays with the #1 horse. # 8 has a second in its only FL try. #10 hasn't won off a layoff.

I like that #11 has won from 4 1/2 lengths off at second call as there seems to be enough early speed to be that far back. #7 will get first jump vs #11 she has been back 2 1/2 lengths and won. Finally #8 has finished 1st Mth vs 21.3, 44.4 and 2nd vs 22.0 - 44.8.

My choices: 7-8-11

Ray

DontSayDont
10-02-2017, 05:03 PM
Time of Race: 22.20 - 45.68 - 58.46 - 71.46

Winner: #10 won by a nose in a head bobbing finish.
Place: #7 coming on fast in stretch when jockey ranked on left rein (trying to get lead change?) and then missed in a close finish.
Show: #8 In a photo for 3rd with #3 and won by about 1 inch.

#11 had almost a perfect X-O (good race-bad race) pattern and was due for a bad race. He gave it and finished last. I tried to forgive the pattern even tho his last race had bounce written all over it with winning while earning her highest speed rating at the distance and on dirt. How does everyone deal with a horse like this as its last race is clearly a "+" race and no need to go back for a different race.

Ray

Jeebs
10-02-2017, 07:22 PM
Time of Race: 22.20 - 45.68 - 58.46 - 71.46

Winner: #10 won by a nose in a head bobbing finish.
Place: #7 coming on fast in stretch when jockey ranked on left rein (trying to get lead change?) and then missed in a close finish.
Show: #8 In a photo for 3rd with #3 and won by about 1 inch.

#11 had almost a perfect X-O (good race-bad race) pattern and was due for a bad race. He gave it and finished last. I tried to forgive the pattern even tho his last race had bounce written all over it with winning while earning her highest speed rating at the distance and on dirt. How does everyone deal with a horse like this as its last race is clearly a "+" race and no need to go back for a different race.

Ray

If Line 1 was where your method took you, then that's your line. It's up to the horse at that point. As you mentioned, the horse had an in and out pattern. Horses aren't machines. Just a bad day at the office for that one. Happens.

For The Lead
10-03-2017, 12:19 AM
This race is just a case of one horse being EVERYTHING. It doesn't leave you much to choose from.
All my usual guidelines apply.