Are most races paceless?

[For The Lead]

Currently there is a thread in the match up section focusing on paceless races. If I understand it correctly, the idea is to find races where no horse has ever been on the lead at the first call in any race listed in their PP’s. In the alternative, perhaps just one horse has been on the lead at the first call in just one of its’ races. Obviously, either of these scenarios constitutes a paceless race, but are these the ONLY scenarios that constitute a paceless race?

Obviously, you have to start with what constitutes and early horse. When you look at a race, what do you look for in order to determine if a horse is early and will challenge for the lead today?

Let’s look at one example. A few of the paceless races in the match up area have been won either wire to wire or 2nd to wire. These winners will return in other races. Off of their last winning race, would you consider them an early horse? Keep in mind that there will be no indication that the horse beat a paceless field of horses in its’ last race. Since all you will know is that it won in early fashion, will you consider it an early horse and capable of challenging for the lead in today’s race?

I think it would be helpful, to all, if as many people as possible offer their view. Feel free to be as specific as you can in presenting your approach.

[Bill Lyster]

FTL,

Several things come to mind resulting from this post.

First and foremost is the way a large percentage of maidens win their first race. If the PPs show the maiden race win it is often wire to wire or near wire to wire, so you should look to see what race position the horse adopts subsequent to the win to get a better understanding of its true running style.

In non maiden races sometimes you will see a dedicated P, SP or S reverse form and go out on an early lead, only to lose easily. This could be an experiment, but it also might have been a true paceless race - where the closest to the lead freaked and faded. I have observed that often times these races might show higher total energy than what was earned in previous off the pace races. I do not use these races unless there is a pattern that shows the horse progressively getting closer to the lead in the race leading up to that effort. I have been fooled in the past thinking that if the horse was a true Presser that it could run behind today's race pace setter a number of lengths to match the delta between today's pace and the race where the horse failed on the lead. Does not seem to work.

Somewhat similar to both of the above would be any race among veteran starters where race fractions appear slow, but where race positioning puts the horse in position at the top of the stretch. Perhaps the key here might be lower TE than normal which still results in a win.

You can always look at the energy screen in the PPs and the E/L graph to see if the horse is doing something different or if race conditions conspired to 'make the horse's day'.

[The Pook]

Well I guess I better chime in since I am running the paceless race experiment.

I would offer that there is no such thing as a paceless race. There will be a pace however reluctant. Qualifying these races as paceless involves a quick scan of first fractions for 1's. That means that no horse has been on a lead at the first call in any race in their PP's. (One ancient 1st for one horse is acceptable). This puts the race in the ballpark of what we are looking for. We can't see further back where there may in fact be some early action. But this is what we have.

With this we are involved in the creme de la creme of possible paceless races. Sometimes somebody steps up and wires. Many times somebody steps up and fails providing cover for those in their comfortable positions. There are other races with certain subtleties that could also be considered as this type of race. But I haven't the desire in this experiment to hunt them out.

When a horse runs again who wired a paceless race field I don't think you could consider him early based on one event. The odds of him entering another similar race type are low. Mostly all races have early pace evident in the PP's.

Pook

[For The Lead]

FTL,

Several things come to mind resulting from this post.

First and foremost is the way a large percentage of maidens win their first race. If the PPs show the maiden race win it is often wire to wire or near wire to wire, so you should look to see what race position the horse adopts subsequent to the win to get a better understanding of its true running style.

In non maiden races sometimes you will see a dedicated P, SP or S reverse form and go out on an early lead, only to lose easily. This could be an experiment, but it also might have been a true paceless race - where the closest to the lead freaked and faded. I have observed that often times these races might show higher total energy than what was earned in previous off the pace races. I do not use these races unless there is a pattern that shows the horse progressively getting closer to the lead in the race leading up to that effort. I have been fooled in the past thinking that if the horse was a true Presser that it could run behind today's race pace setter a number of lengths to match the delta between today's pace and the race where the horse failed on the lead. Does not seem to work.

Somewhat similar to both of the above would be any race among veteran starters where race fractions appear slow, but where race positioning puts the horse in position at the top of the stretch. Perhaps the key here might be lower TE than normal which still results in a win.

You can always look at the energy screen in the PPs and the E/L graph to see if the horse is doing something different or if race conditions conspired to 'make the horse's day'.

Thanks Bill, you make good points. As you apply these points in your day to day handicapping, do you find that most races;

1 – have a legitimate pace scenario, or
2 – do not have a legitimate pace scenario

What characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?

[For The Lead]

Well I guess I better chime in since I am running the paceless race experiment.

I would offer that there is no such thing as a paceless race. There will be a pace however reluctant. Qualifying these races as paceless involves a quick scan of first fractions for 1's. That means that no horse has been on a lead at the first call in any race in their PP's. (One ancient 1st for one horse is acceptable). This puts the race in the ballpark of what we are looking for. We can't see further back where there may in fact be some early action. But this is what we have.

With this we are involved in the creme de la creme of possible paceless races. Sometimes somebody steps up and wires. Many times somebody steps up and fails providing cover for those in their comfortable positions. There are other races with certain subtleties that could also be considered as this type of race. But I haven't the desire in this experiment to hunt them out.

When a horse runs again who wired a paceless race field I don't think you could consider him early based on one event. The odds of him entering another similar race type are low. Mostly all races have early pace evident in the PP's.

Pook

Hello POOK,

I guess the best way to say this is….in some races the pace scenario is straight forward, in other races it is not. What I am trying to get at here is, how does one determine if the race has a straight forward, or legitimate, pace scenario?

In your post you said,”Mostly all races have early pace evident in the PP's.”
What do you look for in order to make that determination?

Like I asked Bill L., what characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?

[The Pook]

Hello POOK,
Like I asked Bill L., what characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?

FTL,

I simply look for red. (Or is it orange?) I look for it on the Entries screen and then in the horses PP's. As you know I am a visual Matchup guy so I don't look at numbers at first. If I see at least one horse with red and maybe some green concentrated in the top left of the PP's I know there is pace. That is why I say that most races have pace. Most races have this look. How much of it and what it means has to then be determined. Others with green and yellow can be part of it but I look for red first. Absence of red leaves the lonely pace-less ones. Sad little affairs really. Kind of like all the wall flowers at a party being forced to assert themselves.:(

An example from today.

Pook

[For The Lead]

WOW!
What did the other 4 horses in this 5 horse field look like?
The #3 horse was only able to beat one horse to the first call.

[DontSayDont]

WOW!
What did the other 4 horses in this 5 horse field look like?
The #3 horse was only able to beat one horse to the first call.

Notice the 2nd and 4th races back. Horse seems to have lost some of its "gate speed". Horse was also a perfect X - O horse in its last 10 races. In today's race it was supposed to be a O race.

Track was listed as good for the first 4 races then upgraded to fast. It didn't look that bad although at least one jock kept his horses 2 to 3 paths off the rail even while on the lead. Favorites came thru on the rail to beat them in the last 16th easily.

I was upset (slightly) in the 5th race were with one minute to post, the odds board no longer showing while they were starting to load, and the BIG favorite at 1:9 and all others double digit odds and 50+k in the show pool, I put in a $2 show on the other 5 horses. The favorite breaks bad (good for me) and then rushes up to contend for the lead but tires in the stretch and gets passed, finishing 4th. But the late money skewed the odds and the only thing I can think off is the big early bet to win must have been pulled from the pool. The show payoffs were no where near what I thought I'd get.

Happy to win but disappointed in the payoff.

Ray

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Bill, you make good points. As you apply these points in your day to day handicapping, do you find that most races;

1 – have a legitimate pace scenario, or
2 – do not have a legitimate pace scenario

What characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?

most appear to have legitimate pace, but understanding how the earlies react to that pace has been problematical.

I tend to use Brohamer's guidelines of close up at 2C or stretch and within so many lengths depending on the distance of the race (and then compare to see if it is close to the projected pace) . Still have problems with horses dropping when the guidelines are blown (and thereby defaulting to the race at or near todays class for rating purposes)

[For The Lead]

most appear to have legitimate pace, but understanding how the earlies react to that pace has been problematical.

I tend to use Brohamer's guidelines of close up at 2C or stretch and within so many lengths depending on the distance of the race (and then compare to see if it is close to the projected pace) . Still have problems with horses dropping when the guidelines are blown (and thereby defaulting to the race at or near todays class for rating purposes)

First, thanks for your response, Bill.

I like your concern with horses dropping down in class and how to rate them. I hate to get too far afield since this is off topic, but I think it is worth mentioning. More years ago than I care to think about, a guy taught me something I have never forgotten, and more importantly, a lesson that can be carried forward into other areas than just the one I will talk about.
Although you don’t see this scenario much anymore, back in those days in was not uncommon to see a horse with one race at the Maiden Special Weight level drop down in its’ next race to the $5,000 maiden claiming level. (As a side note, it is important for a horse to break its’ maiden as soon as possible.) The key to this drop in class was the horse’s first call in its’ only race. Purely as an example, let’s say the horse was 4th beaten 2 lengths at that first call. From there the horse would back up. That is all it would take for this horse to be a standout when it dropped down. In that $5,000 maiden claimer, this horse would fall out of the gate a couple of lengths in front and just go on to wire the field. There really isn’t any way to rate the horse at the second call, stretch call or at the finish. You could only be confident that the horse would get the job done. This was my introduction to just how important a class drop coupled with early speed can be, yet it is something that cannot be quantified. Bradshaw may have called this “voodoo”. I prefer to call it “knowledge”. Ok, on to the topic at hand.

As I read your response it occurred to me that I may not have made myself clear. Perhaps I should have said “EARLY pace scenario” rather than just pace scenario. The second call and stretch call are pretty far along. I wanted to focus on which horses will be contending for the lead at the first call and how each handicapper reaches that conclusion.

[Bill Lyster]

Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?

[For The Lead]

Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?

Bill,

For right now, this takes me further than I want to go, but I promise I will come back to your question.

[lostandwon]

FTL, thanks for posing the questions.



Obviously, you have to start with what constitutes and early horse. When you look at a race, what do you look for in order to determine if a horse is early and will challenge for the lead today?



In looking at a race I look for horse (s) that habitually/routinely run up front at the 1st call. Look left. Like Pook said I look for the color in the pps as viewed through rdss. I want them to be on the lead.

Regardless of if a lone E or many E, I want to see horse(s) on the lead to light up a number that serves as a target for the field to shoot at.

In routes, I do indeed light up 1st fr along with the 2nd even though no corresponding positional call.

All races are challenging, but I find myself unable to visualize and merely guessing (often incorrectly) how the race will run without that target for the field to shoot at.

In regard to the example:
"Let’s look at one example. A few of the paceless races in the match up area have been won either wire to wire or 2nd to wire. These winners will return in other races. Off of their last winning race, would you consider them an early horse? Keep in mind that there will be no indication that the horse beat a paceless field of horses in its’ last race. Since all you will know is that it won in early fashion, will you consider it an early horse and capable of challenging for the lead in today’s race?"

I would not consider them an early horse if they only showed E tendencies in their last race.

I look forward to your comments on Bill L's scenarios as well.

[For The Lead]

Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?

Bill, this is not an easy discussion for me. Although I agree with some of Bradshaw’s theories I don’t subscribe to all of them. Here’s the thing, if his theories worked for him or if they work for anyone else, I think that is great! They’re just not all for me. Having said that….

In answer to your question, my very first thought is, selecting a “pace” is an arbitrary thing. Because a horse ran a particular number in one race does not mean it will run that same number today. When all your handicapping is based on an arbitrary number, what happens when the actual pace of today’s race is different? I have found that a horse’s running style has more influence than time. Also, distance will influence running style more than time. I’ll explain. More than likely, horses will run the same type/style of race regardless of today’s pace. Generally, horses are either early or they are not. They are pressers or they are not. They are closers or they are not. Naturally, early horses are the easiest to identify. When you find a dedicated early horse, you will see that if the distance of the race is 5 furlongs or a mile and a half, that horse will be on the lead. Closers are the next easiest. They always take up position at the back of the pack. It is the two types in between, early pressers and pressers, that create the most problems. Most of the problems in evaluating these types present themselves in sprint races where you have distances of 5 furlongs, 5.5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 6.5 furlongs and 7 furlongs. Many times these early pressers and pressers will show “early” as the sprint distance gets longer. Likewise, where they have shown “early” at the longer sprint distances, they will show early presser or presser when they shorten up in sprint distance.

So, back to your question. What happens if the horses do not run to the pace you have decided on? Suppose they run two fifths faster or slower? It would seem to me that any conclusions you drew when handicapping the race go right out the window. I can’t live or die (so to speak) by deciding that I can correctly predict the actual running times of a race and as a result of that, accurately predict how any given horse will react to that prediction. Your question supposes that if one can accurately determine the pace times of the race, that on that basis, it allows you to determine if a horse will run one fifth of a second slower or faster thus becoming a part of the early pace or not. And how do you determine which of those two things it will do? WAIT A MINUTE! THAT was your question! My answer is...I have no idea. I guess that is the reason I don’t subscribe to that approach. With all the things there are to consider in attempting to pick the winner of a race, I certainly don’t need another.

I can set a first and second call time for a particular race at a particular track and, in most cases, I’ll be within a couple of fifths of that time. Do I take this into consideration as a matter of handicapping a race? NO. Why not? Because in my opinion...it doesn’t matter. Here’s an example.

Over the years I have found many races where there is clearly an early horse in the race. I’m talking about a horse that shows it runs AT THE FRONT in every race at the first and second call. The interesting thing is, this same horse will rank 4th or 5th in “time” to the first call. As the race develops, this horse WILL MAKE THE LEAD even though its’ times were slower. It will not win, but it will make the lead. This puts other early horses in the race in a position of having to run differently than what is normal for them. I think most people would dismiss the horse that always makes the lead as being to slow to make the lead today. In the alternative, if people believe the horse that always makes the lead does, in fact, make the lead again today, then the other early horses get dismissed. The normal result is that the slower horse makes the lead (again) and the other early types are content to sit just behind it in an early presser position. From there one of the other early types will take the lead and go on to win the race. After years of handicapping races, when I see this type of race I don’t know what the fractional times will be, but I know what outcome to expect.

[shoeless]

Good thread thanks

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks for taking the time to respond. I may have to read it again for it to fully sink in.

As always, great stuff.