Good luck handicapping GP turf???

[Bill Lyster]

Things not reported by the PPs:

In the last week in two five furlong turf races at Gulfstream one race was run using a 5 foot runup and resulted in a 22.76 first fraction; another used a 165 foot runup and resulted in a 21.33 first fraction.

In 4, 7.5 furlong turf races one run up was 5 feet; 26.26 first fraction; another with 76 feet run up - 24.21 1F; another with 136 feet runup - 24.09 1F and finally, 152 ft run up - 25.33 1F

Now look, I did not research the class level of the race or the number of E or EP types in each field. My point is, if you matched pace lines you would have a real problem unlocking who was fastest early. BEWARE.

If you know this information and can utilize it to your advantage, good on 'ya.

Cheers

[Mitch44]

Bill:


GP is notorious for this. The reason to move the starting gate and thus different run up times is to preserve the turf course and keep it from getting torn up at a particular spot in the course. This could be done in as little as 10 to 15 feet but they choose extremes for no apparent reason.
At GP the 7.5 distance is notorious for this and many of those races are actually ran at 8 F.
There are run -up distances at all tracks but most seem to be consistently applied but they do vary from track to track. SA 6F dirt may have a consistent run-up 10 feet however a different track may use something else entirely.

None of this is a concern for RDSS users because it uses TrackMaster data. TrackMaster is the only service that I'm aware of that computes and compensates for run -up distances. Another edge we have over the general public.

Here's the rub through; if your a matcher and use raw unadjusted times your not getting correct times that compensate for run -up distances. And matchers will defend the raw times to their death while encountering more loses as a result than they should. This really has to do with really and modern times and wasn't a problem when Bradshaw's was doing this while still alive. They were not moving the starting gate or changing the run-up times every race during Jimmy's era.

Solutions: avoid turf races( different for dirt races also from track to track so really not a solution), accept a lower strike rate or use adjusted times. If I were a total matcher I myself would adapt and tweak the matching concept to todays really and use adjusted times. However I can't speak for others and its up to the matcher their selves to make that decision. We win and lose by the decisions we make every race and there are many every race which is why we don't all get the same results.

Mitch44